Learning Models for Traumatic Brain Injury Mortality Prediction on Pediatric Electronic Health Records

Is artificial intelligence superior to traditional regression methods in predicting prognosis of adult traumatic brain injury?

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a significant global health issue with high morbidity and mortality rates. Recent studies have shown that machine learning algorithms outperform traditional logistic regression models in predicting functional outcomes for TBI patients. This research aimed to compare the accuracy of the binomial logistic regression model with the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning model. The study included 5056 adult TBI patients evaluated using the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS). The XGBoost model was trained on 80% of the sample and tested on the remaining 20%. The logistic regression model accurately predicted 59.7% of unfavorable outcomes, with a significant impact of variables like age and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS). The ROC curve analysis showed an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.942, indicating the model's predictive ability. The XGBoost algorithm achieved an accuracy of 0.89, AUC of 0.83. The most critical variables in the XGBoost model were days of hospitalization, age, systolic blood pressure, ICU length of stay, GCS and respiratory rate. The XGBoost algorithm performed better in accuracy for predicting unfavorable outcomes, while logistic regression was superior in terms of the ROC curve. Further studies are needed to fine-tune the algorithm's hyperparameters and develop models applicable in clinical settings. Clinical trial number Not applicable.

Traumatic Brain Injury and Artificial Intelligence: Shaping the Future of Neurorehabilitation-A Review

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a leading cause of disability and death globally, presenting significant challenges for diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment. As healthcare technology advances, artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a promising tool in enhancing TBI rehabilitation outcomes. This literature review explores the current and potential applications of AI in TBI management, focusing on AI's role in diagnostic tools, neuroimaging, prognostic modeling, and rehabilitation programs. AI-driven algorithms have demonstrated high accuracy in predicting mortality, functional outcomes, and personalized rehabilitation strategies based on patient data. AI models have been developed to predict in-hospital mortality of TBI patients up to an accuracy of 95.6%. Furthermore, AI enhances neuroimaging by detecting subtle abnormalities that may be missed by human radiologists, expediting diagnosis and treatment decisions. Despite these advances, ethical considerations, including biases in AI algorithms and data generalizability, pose challenges that must be addressed to optimize AI's implementation in clinical settings. This review highlights key clinical trials and future research directions, emphasizing AI's transformative potential in improving patient care, rehabilitation, and long-term outcomes for TBI patients.

Applications of machine learning in pediatric traumatic brain injury (pTBI): a systematic review of the literature

OBJECTIVE

Pediatric traumatic brain injury (pTBI) is a heterogeneous condition requiring the development of clinical decision rules (CDRs) for the optimal management of these patients. Machine learning (ML) is a novel artificial intelligence (AI) predictive tool with various applications in modern neurosurgery, including the creation of CDRs for patients with pTBI. In the present study, we summarized the current literature on the applications of ML in pTBI.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted following the PRISMA guidelines. The literature search included PubMed/MEDLINE, SCOPUS, and ScienceDirect databases. We included observational or experimental studies focusing on the applications of ML in patients with pTBI under 18 years of age.

RESULTS

A total of 18 articles were included in our systematic review. Of these articles, 16 were retrospective cohorts, 1 was a prospective cohort, and 1 was a case-control study. Of these articles, ten concerned ML applications in predicting the outcome of pTBI patients, while 8 reported applications of ML in predicting the need for CT scans. Artificial Neuronal Network (ANN) and Random Forest (RF) were the most commonly utilized models for the creation of predictive algorithms. The accuracy of the ML algorithms to predict the need for CT scan in pTBI cases ranged from 0.790 to 0.999, and the Area Under Curve (AUC) ranged from 0.411 (95%CI: 0.354-0.468) to 0.980 (95%CI: 0.950-1.00). The model with the maximum accuracy to predict the need for CT scan was a Deep ANN model, while the model with the maximum AUC was Ensemble Learning. The model with the maximum accuracy to predict the outcome (favorable vs. unfavorable) of patients with TBI was a support vector machine (SVM) model with 94.0% accuracy, whereas the model with the highest AUC was an ANN model with an AUC of 0.991.

CONCLUSION

In the present systematic review, conventional and novel ML models were utilized to either predict the presence of intracranial trauma or the prognosis of children with pTBI. However, most of the reported ML algorithms have not been externally validated and are pending further research.

The Pediatric Data Science and Analytics Subgroup of the Pediatric Acute Lung Injury and Sepsis Investigators Network: Use of Supervised Machine Learning Applications in Pediatric Critical Care Medicine Research

OBJECTIVE

Perform a scoping review of supervised machine learning in pediatric critical care to identify published applications, methodologies, and implementation frequency to inform best practices for the development, validation, and reporting of predictive models in pediatric critical care.

DESIGN

Scoping review and expert opinion.

SETTING

We queried CINAHL Plus with Full Text (EBSCO), Cochrane Library (Wiley), Embase (Elsevier), Ovid Medline, and PubMed for articles published between 2000 and 2022 related to machine learning concepts and pediatric critical illness. Articles were excluded if the majority of patients were adults or neonates, if unsupervised machine learning was the primary methodology, or if information related to the development, validation, and/or implementation of the model was not reported. Article selection and data extraction were performed using dual review in the Covidence tool, with discrepancies resolved by consensus.

SUBJECTS

Articles reporting on the development, validation, or implementation of supervised machine learning models in the field of pediatric critical care medicine.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Of 5075 identified studies, 141 articles were included. Studies were primarily (57%) performed at a single site. The majority took place in the United States (70%). Most were retrospective observational cohort studies. More than three-quarters of the articles were published between 2018 and 2022. The most common algorithms included logistic regression and random forest. Predicted events were most commonly death, transfer to ICU, and sepsis. Only 14% of articles reported external validation, and only a single model was implemented at publication. Reporting of validation methods, performance assessments, and implementation varied widely. Follow-up with authors suggests that implementation remains uncommon after model publication.

CONCLUSIONS

Publication of supervised machine learning models to address clinical challenges in pediatric critical care medicine has increased dramatically in the last 5 years. While these approaches have the potential to benefit children with critical illness, the literature demonstrates incomplete reporting, absence of external validation, and infrequent clinical implementation.

Open source and reproducible and inexpensive infrastructure for data challenges and education

Data sharing is necessary to maximize the actionable knowledge generated from research data. Data challenges can encourage secondary analyses of datasets. Data challenges in biomedicine often rely on advanced cloud-based computing infrastructure and expensive industry partnerships. Examples include challenges that use Google Cloud virtual machines and the Sage Bionetworks Dream Challenges platform. Such robust infrastructures can be financially prohibitive for investigators without substantial resources. Given the potential to develop scientific and clinical knowledge and the NIH emphasis on data sharing and reuse, there is a need for inexpensive and computationally lightweight methods for data sharing and hosting data challenges. To fill that gap, we developed a workflow that allows for reproducible model training, testing, and evaluation. We leveraged public GitHub repositories, open-source computational languages, and Docker technology. In addition, we conducted a data challenge using the infrastructure we developed. In this manuscript, we report on the infrastructure, workflow, and data challenge results. The infrastructure and workflow are likely to be useful for data challenges and education.

Mortality prediction using medical time series on TBI patients

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) is one of the leading causes of injury-related mortality in the world, with severe cases reaching mortality rates of 30-40%. It is highly heterogeneous both in causes and consequences making more complex the medical interpretation and prognosis. Gathering clinical, demographic, and laboratory data to perform a prognosis requires time and skill in several clinical specialties. Artificial intelligence (AI) methods can take advantage of existing data by performing helpful predictions and guiding physicians toward a better prognosis and, consequently, better healthcare. The objective of this work was to develop learning models and evaluate their capability of predicting the mortality of TBI. The predictive model would allow the early assessment of the more serious cases and scarce medical resources can be pointed toward the patients who need them most.

METHODS

Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Transformer architectures were tested and compared in performance, coupled with data imbalance, missing data, and feature selection strategies. From the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) dataset, a cohort of TBI patients was selected and an analysis of the first 48 hours of multiple time series sequential variables was done to predict hospital mortality.

RESULTS

The best performance was obtained with the Transformer architecture, achieving an AUC of 0.907 with the larger group of features and trained with class proportion class weights and binary cross entropy loss.

CONCLUSIONS

Using the time series sequential data, LSTM and Transformers proved to be both viable options for predicting TBI hospital mortality in 48 hours after admission. Overall, using sequential deep learning models with time series data to predict TBI mortality is viable and can be used as a helpful indicator of the well-being of patients.

Traumatic Brain Injury Rehabilitation Outcome Prediction Using Machine Learning Methods

Objective

To investigate the performance of machine learning (ML) methods for predicting outcomes from inpatient rehabilitation for subjects with TBI using a dataset with a large number of predictor variables. Our second objective was to identify top predictive features selected by the ML models for each outcome and to validate the interpretability of the models.

Design

Secondary analysis using computational modeling of relationships between patients, injury and treatment activities and 6 outcomes, applied to the large multi-site, prospective, longitudinal observational dataset collected during the traumatic brain injury inpatient rehabilitation study.

Setting

Acute inpatient rehabilitation.

Participants

1946 patients aged 14 years or older, who sustained a severe, moderate, or complicated mild TBI, and were admitted to 1 of 9 US inpatient rehabilitation sites between 2008 and 2011 (N=1946).

Main Outcome Measures

Rehabilitation length of stay, discharge to home, FIM cognitive and FIM motor at discharge and at 9-months post discharge.

Results

Advanced ML models, specifically gradient boosting tree model, performed consistently better than all other models, including classical linear regression models. Top ranked predictive features were identified for each of the 6 outcome variables. Level of effort, days to rehabilitation admission, age at rehabilitation admission, and advanced mobility activities were the most frequently top ranked predictive features. The highest-ranking predictive feature differed across the specific outcome variable.

Conclusions

Identifying patient, injury, and rehabilitation treatment variables that are predictive of better outcomes will contribute to cost-effective care delivery and guide evidence-based clinical practice. ML methods can contribute to these efforts.

Machine Learning Approach for the Prediction of In-Hospital Mortality in Traumatic Brain Injury Using Bio-Clinical Markers at Presentation to the Emergency Department

BACKGROUND

Accurate prediction of in-hospital mortality is essential for better management of patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Machine learning (ML) algorithms have been shown to be effective in predicting clinical outcomes. This study aimed to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality in TBI patients using ML algorithms.

MATERIALS AND METHOD

A retrospective study was performed using data from both the trauma registry and electronic medical records among TBI patients admitted to the Hamad Trauma Center in Qatar between June 2016 and May 2021. Thirteen features were selected for four ML models including a Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XgBoost), to predict the in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

A dataset of 922 patients was analyzed, of which 78% survived and 22% died. The AUC scores for SVM, LR, XgBoost, and RF models were 0.86, 0.84, 0.85, and 0.86, respectively. XgBoost and RF had good AUC scores but exhibited significant differences in log loss between the training and testing sets (% difference in logloss of 79.5 and 41.8, respectively), indicating overfitting compared to the other models. The feature importance trend across all models indicates that aPTT, INR, ISS, prothrombin time, and lactic acid are the most important features in prediction. Magnesium also displayed significant importance in the prediction of mortality among serum electrolytes.

CONCLUSIONS

SVM was found to be the best-performing ML model in predicting the mortality of TBI patients. It had the highest AUC score and did not show overfitting, making it a more reliable model compared to LR, XgBoost, and RF.