Admission Serum Calcium Level and Short-Term Mortality After Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Secondary Analysis Based on a Norwegian Retrospective Cohort

Can baseline serum calcium levels predict outcomes of intracerebral hemorrhage? A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

The prognostic role of baseline calcium levels in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is conflicting. We aimed to conduct the first meta-analysis in the literature to examine if baseline calcium levels can predict outcomes after ICH.

METHODS

English-language studies listed on the databases of Embase, PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Web of Science were searched up to 20th November 2023. Meta-analysis was conducted for baseline hematoma volume, hematoma expansion, unfavorable functional outcome, and mortality.

RESULTS

Ten studies were included. Meta-analysis showed that patients with hypocalcemia have significantly higher baseline hematoma volume (MD: 8.6 95 % CI: 3.30, 13.90 I2 = 88 %) but did not have a higher risk of hematoma expansion (OR: 1.82 95 % CI: 0.89, 3.73 I2 = 82 %). Meta-analysis of crude (OR: 1.86 95 % CI: 1.25, 2.78 I2 = 63 %) and adjusted data (OR: 2.05 95 % CI: 1.27, 3.28 I2 = 64 %) showed those with hypocalcemia had a significantly higher risk of unfavorable functional outcomes. Meta-analysis of both crude (OR: 2.09 95 % CI: 1.51, 2.88 I2 = 80 %) and adjusted data (OR: 1.38 95 % CI: 1.14, 1.69 I2 = 70 %) also demonstrated a significantly higher risk of mortality in patients with hypocalcemia.

CONCLUSION

Baseline serum calcium may have a prognostic role in ICH. Hypocalcemia at baseline may lead to large hematoma volume and poor functional and survival outcomes. However, there seems to be no relation between hypocalcemia and the risk of hematoma expansion. Further studies examining the role of calcium on ICH prognosis are needed.

Red cell distribution width to total serum calcium ratio and in-hospital mortality risk in patients with acute ischemic stroke: A MIMIC-IV retrospective analysis

We investigated the relationship among red cell distribution width (RDW), to total serum calcium (TSC) ratio (RCR), and in-hospital mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). This study was a retrospective analysis. The data of 2700 AIS patients was retrospectively analyzed from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care database (version IV). The main outcome of interest was in-hospital mortality. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to determine whether RCR was independently associated with in-hospital mortality. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to plot the survival curves for RCR. Subgroup analyses were performed to measure the mortality across various subgroups. The area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was calculated to ascertain the quality of RCR as a predictor of in-hospital mortality in patients with AIS. In the multivariate analysis, statistically significant differences were identified in age, ethnicity, length of ICU stay, mechanical ventilation, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, RDW, hemoglobin, RCR, whether taking anticoagulants, hyperlipidemia, and atrial fibrillation (P < .05). A threshold inflection point value of 1.83 was obtained through a two-piecewise regression model. There was a non-linear relationship between RCR and hospital mortality in patients with AIS. The hazard ratio (HR) and the 95% confidence intervals (CI) on the right and left of the inflection point were 0.93 (0.57-1.51; P = .7660) and 2.96 (1.37-6.42; P = .0060), respectively. The Kaplan-Meier curve indicated that survival rates were higher when RCR was ≤ 1.83 and lower when RDW was > 1.83 after adjustment for age, gender, BMI, ethnicity. The area under curve (AUC) of RCR was 0.715. A higher RCR was associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality in patients with AIS.

The relationship between red cell distribution width, serum calcium ratio, and in-hospital mortality among patients with acute respiratory failure: A retrospective cohort study of the MIMIC-IV database

To investigate the impact of RDW/CA (the ratio of red cell distribution width to calcium) on in-hospital mortality in patients with acute respiratory failure (ARF). This retrospective cohort study analyzed the data of 6981 ARF patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) database 2.0. Critically ill participants between 2008 and 2019 at the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston. The primary outcome of interest was in-hospital mortality. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to determine whether the RDW/CA ratio independently correlated with in-hospital mortality. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to plot the survival curves of the RDW/CA. Subgroup analyses were performed to measure the mortality across various subgroups. After adjusting for potential covariates, we found that a higher RDW/CA was associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality (HR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.01-1.35, P = .0365) in ARF patients. A nonlinear relationship was observed between RDW/CA and in-hospital mortality, with an inflection point of 1.97. When RDW/CA ≥ 1.97 was positively correlated with in-hospital mortality in patients with ARF (HR = 1.554, 95% CI: 1.183-2.042, P = .0015). The Kaplan-Meier curve indicated the higher survival rates for RDW/CA < 1.97 and the lower for RDW/CA ≥ 1.97 after adjustment for age, gender, body mass index, and ethnicity. RDW/CA is an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality in patients with ARF. Furthermore, a nonlinear relationship was observed between RDW/CA and in-hospital mortality in patients with ARF.

Association between serum calcium and prognosis in patients with acute ischemic stroke in ICU: analysis of the MIMIC-IV database

BACKGROUND

While serum Ca has proven to be a reliable predictor of mortality across various diseases, its connection with the clinical outcomes of ischemic stroke (IS) remains inconclusive. Our research aimed to explore the relationships between serum total Ca (tCa) and serum ionized Ca (iCa) and mortality among acute IS (AIS) patients.

METHODS

We gathered data from 1773 AIS patients in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care Database IV, including baseline demographic data, comorbidities, vital signs, laboratory-based data, and scoring systems. Endpoints for the study encompassed 30-d, 90-d, and 365-d all-cause mortalities. Employing restricted cubic spline Cox regression, we explored potential nonlinear relationships between admission serum iCa and tCa levels and mortality. Participants were categorized into four groups based on serum iCa and tCa quartiles. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was then conducted to evaluate the independent association of iCa and tCa quartiles with all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

The restricted cubic spline revealed a U-shaped association between iCa and 30-d and 90-d mortality (P<0.05), while the relationship between iCa and 365-d mortality was linear (P<0.05). After adjusting for confounders, multivariable Cox analysis demonstrated that the lowest serum iCa level quartile was independently associated with increased risks of 30-d, 90-d, and 365-d mortality. Similarly, the highest serum iCa level quartile was independently associated with increased risks of 30-d and 90-d mortality, but not 365-d mortality. Notably, serum tCa level showed no association with increased risks of 30-d, 90-d, and 365-d mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that serum iCa, rather than tCa, is linked to ischemic stroke prognosis. Both high and low serum iCa levels are associated with poor short-term prognosis, while only low serum iCa is associated with poor long-term prognosis in AIS patients.

Twenty-eight-day in-hospital mortality prediction for elderly patients with ischemic stroke in the intensive care unit: Interpretable machine learning models

Background

Risk stratification of elderly patients with ischemic stroke (IS) who are admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) remains a challenging task. This study aims to establish and validate predictive models that are based on novel machine learning (ML) algorithms for 28-day in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with IS who were admitted to the ICU.

Methods

Data of elderly patients with IS were extracted from the electronic intensive care unit (eICU) Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD) records of those elderly patients admitted between 2014 and 2015. All selected participants were randomly divided into two sets: a training set and a validation set in the ratio of 8:2. ML algorithms, such as Naïve Bayes (NB), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (xgboost), and logistic regression (LR), were applied for model construction utilizing 10-fold cross-validation. The performance of models was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis and accuracy. The present study uses interpretable ML methods to provide insight into the model's prediction and outcome using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method.

Results

As regards the population demographics and clinical characteristics, the analysis in the present study included 1,236 elderly patients with IS in the ICU, of whom 164 (13.3%) died during hospitalization. As regards feature selection, a total of eight features were selected for model construction. In the training set, both the xgboost and NB models showed specificity values of 0.989 and 0.767, respectively. In the internal validation set, the xgboost model identified patients who died with an AUC value of 0.733 better than the LR model which identified patients who died with an AUC value of 0.627 or the NB model 0.672.

Conclusion

The xgboost model shows the best predictive performance that predicts mortality in elderly patients with IS in the ICU. By making the ML model explainable, physicians would be able to understand better the reasoning behind the outcome.

L-shaped association of serum calcium with all-cause and CVD mortality in the US adults: A population-based prospective cohort study

Background

Calcium is involved in many biological processes, but the impact of serum calcium levels on long-term mortality in general populations has been rarely investigated.

Methods

This prospective cohort study analyzed data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2018). All-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, and cancer mortality were obtained through linkage to the National Death Index. Survey-weighted multivariate Cox regression was performed to compute hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidential intervals (CIs) for the associations of calcium levels with risks of mortality. Restricted cubic spline analyses were performed to examine the non-linear association of calcium levels with all-cause and disease-specific mortality.

Results

A total of 51,042 individuals were included in the current study. During an average of 9.7 years of follow-up, 7,592 all-cause deaths were identified, including 2,391 CVD deaths and 1,641 cancer deaths. Compared with participants in the first quartile (Q1) of serum calcium level [≤2.299 mmol/L], the risk of all-cause mortality was lower for participants in the second quartile (Q2) [2.300-2.349 mmol/L], the third quartile (Q3) [2.350-2.424 mmol/L] and the fourth quartile (Q4) [≥2.425 mmol/L] with multivariable-adjusted HRs of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.74-0.88), 0.78 (95% CI, 0.71-0.86), and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.73, 0.88). Similar associations were observed for CVD mortality, with HRs of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.71-0.95), 0.87 (95% CI, 0.74-1.02), and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.72, 0.97) in Q2-Q4 quartile. Furthermore, the L-shaped non-linear associations were detected for serum calcium with the risk of all-cause mortality. Below the median of 2.350 mmol/L, per 0.1 mmol/L higher serum calcium was associated with a 24% lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 0.76, 95% CI, 0.70-0.83), however, no significant changes were observed when serum calcium was above the median. Similar L-shaped associations were detected for serum calcium with the risk of CVD mortality with a 25% reduction in the risk of CVD death per 0.1 mmol/L higher serum calcium below the median (HR: 0.75, 95% CI, 0.65-0.86).

Conclusion

L-shaped associations of serum calcium with all-cause and CVD mortality were observed in US adults, and hypocalcemia was associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality and CVD mortality.