Development and Validation of a Prognostic Nomogram for Colorectal Cancer Patients With Synchronous Peritoneal Metastasis

Construction of a nomogram-based risk prediction model for depressive symptoms in middle-aged and young breast cancer patients

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer (BC) is the second most common malignancy globally. Young and middle-aged patients face more pressures from diagnosis, treatment, costs, and psychological issues like self-image concerns, social barriers, and professional challenges. Compared to other age groups, they have higher recurrence rates, lower survival rates, and increased risk of depression. Research is lacking on factors influencing depressive symptoms and predictive models for this age group.

AIM

To analyze factors influencing depressive symptoms in young/middle-aged BC patients and construct a depression risk predictive model.

METHODS

A total of 360 patients undergoing BC treatment at two tertiary hospitals in Jiangsu Province, China from November 2023 to April 2024 were included in the study. Participants were surveyed using a general information questionnaire, the patient health questionnaire depression scale, the visual analog scale for pain, the revised family support scale, and the long form of the international physical activity questionnaire. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to identify the factors affecting depression in middle-aged and young BC patients, and a predictive model for depression risk was developed based on these findings.

RESULTS

Among the 360 middle-aged and young BC patients, the incidence rate of depressive symptoms was 38.61% (139/360). Multivariate analysis revealed that tumor grade, patient's monthly income, pain score, family support score, and physical activity score were factors influencing depression in this patient group (P < 0.05). The risk prediction model constructed based on these factors yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.852, with a maximum Youden index of 0.973, sensitivity of 86.80%, specificity of 89.50%, and a diagnostic odds ratio of 0.552. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test for goodness of fit indicated an adequate model fit (χ 2 = 0.360, P = 0.981).

CONCLUSION

The constructed predictive model demonstrates good predictive performance and can serve as a reference for medical professionals to early identify high-risk patients and implement corresponding preventive measures to decrease the incidence of depressive symptoms in this population.

Construction of a nomogram risk prediction model for depressive symptoms in elderly breast cancer patients

The primary objective of this study was to identify the factors associated with the development of depressive symptoms in elderly breast cancer (BC) patients and to construct a nomogram model for predicting these symptoms. We recruited 409 patients undergoing BC treatment in the breast departments of two tertiary-level hospitals in Jiangsu Province from November 2023 to April 2024 as our study cohort. Participants were categorized into depressed and non-depressed groups based on their clinical outcomes. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to identify independent risk factors for depression among BC patients. Multivariate analysis revealed that monthly income, pain score, family support score, and physical activity score significantly influenced the onset of depression in older BC patients (P < 0.05).The risk prediction model, constructed using these identified factors, demonstrated excellent discriminatory power, as evidenced by an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.824. The maximum Youden index was 0.627, with a sensitivity of 90.60%, specificity of 72.10%, and a diagnostic threshold value of 1.501. The results of the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test (χ² = 3.181, P = 0.923) indicated that the model fit the data well. The calibration curve for the model closely followed the ideal curve, suggesting a strong fit and high predictive accuracy. Our nomogram model exhibited superior predictive performance, enabling healthcare professionals to identify high-risk patients early and implement preventative measures to mitigate the development of depressive symptoms. This study is a cross-sectional study that lacks longitudinal data and has a small sample size. Future research could involve larger samples, multicenter studies, and prospective designs to build better clinical predictive models.

Cytoreductive Surgery and Hyperthermic Intraperitoneal Chemotherapy in the Management of Colorectal Cancer with Peritoneal Metastasis: A Single-Center Cohort Study

Multimodal treatment in peritoneal metastases (PM) from colorectal neoplasms may improve overall survival (OS). In this study, we reported our experience in using cytoreductive surgery (CRS) combined with intraperitoneal chemohyperthermia (HIPEC) for the treatment of peritoneal metastases (PM) from colorectal neoplasms. The first aim was to evaluate the overall survival of these patients. Furthermore, using the results of the Prodige 7 Trial and incorporating them with the entropy balance statistical tool, we generated a pseudopopulation on which to test the use of CRS alone. We performed a retrospective analysis based on a prospective database of all 55 patients treated with CRS + HIPEC between March 2004 and January 2023. The median OS was 47 months, with 1-, 3- and 5-year survival rates of 90.8%, 58.7% and 42.7%, respectively. There was no significant difference in the data in the pseudogroup generated with entropy balance. This finding confirms the critical role of complete cytoreduction in achieving the best OS for patients with PM. PCI > 6 seems to be the most important prognostic factor influencing OS. At present, CRS + HIPEC seems to be the therapeutic strategy that guarantees the best results in terms of OS for patients with relatively low PCI and in whom a CCS ≤ 1 can be achieved.

A prediction nomogram for perineural invasion in colorectal cancer patients: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Perineural invasion (PNI), as the fifth recognized pathway for the spread and metastasis of colorectal cancer (CRC), has increasingly garnered widespread attention. The preoperative identification of whether colorectal cancer (CRC) patients exhibit PNI can assist clinical practitioners in enhancing preoperative decision-making, including determining the necessity of neoadjuvant therapy and the appropriateness of surgical resection. The primary objective of this study is to construct and validate a preoperative predictive model for assessing the risk of perineural invasion (PNI) in patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer (CRC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 335 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer (CRC) at a single medical center were subject to random allocation, with 221 individuals assigned to a training dataset and 114 to a validation dataset, maintaining a ratio of 2:1. Comprehensive preoperative clinical and pathological data were meticulously gathered for analysis. Initial exploration involved conducting univariate logistic regression analysis, with subsequent inclusion of variables demonstrating a significance level of p < 0.05 into the multivariate logistic regression analysis, aiming to ascertain independent predictive factors, all while maintaining a p-value threshold of less than 0.05. From the culmination of these factors, a nomogram was meticulously devised. Rigorous evaluation of this nomogram's precision and reliability encompassed Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, calibration curve assessment, and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA). The robustness and accuracy were further fortified through application of the bootstrap method, which entailed 1000 independent dataset samplings to perform discrimination and calibration procedures.

RESULTS

The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis unveiled independent risk factors for perineural invasion (PNI) in patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer (CRC). These factors included tumor histological differentiation (grade) (OR = 0.15, 95% CI = 0.03-0.74, p = 0.02), primary tumor location (OR = 2.49, 95% CI = 1.21-5.12, p = 0.013), gross tumor type (OR = 0.42, 95% CI = 0.22-0.81, p = 0.01), N staging in CT (OR = 3.44, 95% CI = 1.74-6.80, p < 0.001), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level (OR = 3.13, 95% CI = 1.60-6.13, p = 0.001), and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) (OR = 2.07, 95% CI = 1.08-3.96, p = 0.028).These findings formed the basis for constructing a predictive nomogram, which exhibited an impressive area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.772 (95% CI, 0.712-0.833). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test confirmed the model's excellent fit (p = 0.47), and the calibration curve demonstrated consistent performance. Furthermore, decision curve analysis (DCA) underscored a substantial net benefit across the risk range of 13% to 85%, reaffirming the nomogram's reliability through rigorous internal validation.

CONCLUSION

We have formulated a highly reliable nomogram that provides valuable assistance to clinical practitioners in preoperatively assessing the likelihood of perineural invasion (PNI) among colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. This tool holds significant potential in offering guidance for treatment strategy formulation.

Cytoreductive surgery for synchronous and metachronous colorectal peritoneal dissemination: Japanese P classification and peritoneal cancer index

Aim

The outcomes of cytoreductive surgery (CRS) for synchronous and metachronous colorectal peritoneal dissemination were investigated using the Japanese P classification and peritoneal cancer index (PCI).

Methods

CRS was performed in 111 cases of synchronous peritoneal dissemination and 115 cases of metachronous peritoneal dissemination. The P classification and PCI were determined at the time of laparotomy.

Results

In the synchronous dissemination group, the 5-year overall survival rates after CRS in P1/P2 and P3 cases were 51% and 13%, respectively. Even for P3, 51% of the patients achieved macroscopic cytoreductive complete resection (CC-0), with a 5-year survival rate of 40%. When P3 cases were classified into PCI 0-9, 10-19, 20-29, and 30-39, CC-0 was achieved in 93%, 70%, 6%, and 0% of the cases, respectively, and the 5-year survival rate of PCI 0-9 was 41%. In the metachronous dissemination group, the 5-year survival rates were 62% for PCI 0-9 and 22% for PCI 10-19; 5-year survival was not observed in patients with a PCI ≥ 20. CC-0 was significantly associated with the postoperative prognosis in both synchronous and metachronous peritoneal dissemination.

Conclusion

In cases of synchronous dissemination, CRS must be performed for P1 and P2 cases or those with a PCI < 10, while detailed examination using PCI is required for P3 cases. In cases of metachronous dissemination, CRS should be considered when the PCI score is <20.

Prognostic value of normal levels of preoperative tumor markers in colorectal cancer

Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA125), and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) are widely used tumor markers for colorectal cancer (CRC), but their clinical significance is unknown when the levels of these tumor markers were within the normal range. This retrospective study included 2145 CRC patients. The entire cohort was randomly divided into training and validation datasets. The optimal cut-off values of tumor markers were calculated using X-tile software, and univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to assess its association with overall survival (OS). The nomogram model was constructed and validated. The entire cohort was randomly divided into a training dataset (1502 cases, 70%) and a validation dataset (643 cases,30%). Calculated from the training dataset, the optimal cut-off value was 2.9 ng/mL for CEA, 10.1 ng/mL for CA19-9, 13.4 U/mL for CA125, and 1.8 ng/mL for AFP, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, tumor location, T stage, N stage, preoperative CA19-9, and CA125 levels were independent prognostic predictors. Even within the normal range, CRC patients with relatively high levels of CA19-9 or CA125 worse OS compared to those with relatively low levels. Then, based on the independent prognostic predictors from multivariate analysis, two models with/without (model I/II) CA19-9 and CA125 were built, model I showed better prediction and reliability than model II. Within the normal range, relatively high levels of preoperative CA19-9 and CA125 were significantly associated with poor OS in CRC patients. The nomogram based on CA19-9 and CA125 levels showed improved predictive accuracy ability for CRC.

Effect of BRAF mutation on the prognosis for patients with colorectal cancer undergoing cytoreductive surgery for synchronous peritoneal metastasis

Background

KRAS/BRAF mutations (mutKRAS/mutBRAF) are unfavorable prognostic factors for colorectal cancer (CRC) metastases to the liver and lungs. However, their effects on the prognosis for patients with synchronous peritoneal metastasis (S-PM) of CRC after cytoreductive surgery (CRS) and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) are controversial. In the study, we aimed to determine the effects of mutKRAS/mutBRAF on the prognosis for patients with S-PM who received CRS.

Methods

A total of 142 patients diagnosed with S-PM between July 2007 and July 2019 were included in this study. The demographics, mutKRAS/mutBRAF status, overall survival (OS), and progression-free survival (PFS) of the patients were evaluated. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used to estimate the difference in survival between groups.

Results

Among 142 patients, 68 (47.9%) showed mutKRAS and 42 (29.5%) showed mutBRAF. The median OS values were 8.4 and 34.3 months for patients with mutBRAF and BRAF wild-type, respectively (P < 0.01). However, KRAS status was not significantly associated with median OS (P = 0.76). Multivariate analysis revealed carcinoembryonic antigen, CRS, HIPEC, and mutBRAF as independent predictors for OS. Based on these findings, a nomogram was constructed. The C-index was 0.789 (95% confidence interval, 0.742-0.836), indicating good predictive ability of the model. Furthermore, the 1- and 2-year survival calibration plots showed good agreement between the predicted and actual OS rates. The area under curves of the 1- and 2-year survival predictions based on the nomogram were 0.807 and 0.682, respectively. Additionally, mutBRAF was significantly associated with lower PFS (P < 0.001).

Conclusions

mutBRAF is an independent prognostic risk factor for S-PM. The established nomogram predicted the OS of patients with CRC having S-PM with high accuracy, indicating its usefulness as a valuable prognostic tool for the designated patient cohort.

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting metachronous peritoneal metastasis in colorectal cancer: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Peritoneal metastasis (PM) after primary surgery for colorectal cancer (CRC) has the worst prognosis. Prediction and early detection of metachronous PM (m-PM) have an important role in improving postoperative prognosis of CRC. However, commonly used imaging methods have limited sensitivity to detect PM early. We aimed to establish a nomogram model to evaluate the individual probability of m-PM to facilitate early interventions for high-risk patients.

AIM

To establish and validate a nomogram model for predicting the occurrence of m-PM in CRC within 3 years after surgery.

METHODS

We used the clinical data of 878 patients at the Second Hospital of Jilin University, between January 1, 2014 and January 31, 2019. The patients were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 2:1. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was performed to identify the variables with nonzero coefficients to predict the risk of m-PM. Multivariate logistic regression was used to verify the selected variables and to develop the predictive nomogram model. Harrell’s concordance index, receiver operating characteristic curve, Brier score, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate discrimination, distinctiveness, validity, and clinical utility of this nomogram model. The model was verified internally using bootstrapping method and verified externally using validation cohort.

RESULTS

LASSO regression analysis identified six potential risk factors with nonzero coefficients. Multivariate logistic regression confirmed the risk factors to be independent. Based on the results of two regression analyses, a nomogram model was established. The nomogram included six predictors: Tumor site, histological type, pathological T stage, carbohydrate antigen 125, v-raf murine sarcoma viral oncogene homolog B mutation and microsatellite instability status. The model achieved good predictive accuracy on both the training and validation datasets. The C-index, area under the curve, and Brier scores were 0.796, 0.796 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.735-0.856], and 0.081 for the training cohort and 0.782, 0.782 (95%CI 0.690-0.874), and 0.089 for the validation cohort, respectively. DCA showed that when the threshold probability was between 0.01 and 0.90, using this model to predict m-PM achieved a net clinical benefit.

CONCLUSION

We have established and validated a nomogram model to predict m-PM in patients undergoing curative surgery, which shows good discrimination and high accuracy.

Mid-Arm Muscle Circumference or Body Weight-Standardized Hand Grip Strength in the GLIM Superiorly Predicts Survival in Chinese Colorectal Cancer Patients

Our objective was to identify the optimal method to assess reduced muscle mass (RMM) using the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM) approach and investigate the roles of the GLIM approach in nutrition assessment and survival prediction in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. During a median follow-up period of 4.2 (4.0, 4.4) years, a development cohort of 3612 CRC patients with a mean age of 64.09 ± 12.45 years was observed, as well as an external validation cohort of 875 CRC patients. Kaplan−Meier curves and multivariate Cox regression were adopted to analyze the association between GLIM-diagnosed malnutrition and the overall survival (OS) of CRC patients. A nomogram predicting individualized survival was constructed based on independent prognostic predictors. The concordance index, calibration curve, and decision curve were applied to appraise the discrimination, accuracy, and clinical efficacy of the nomogram, respectively. Patients diagnosed with severe malnutrition based on either the mid-arm muscle circumference (MAMC) or body weight-standardized hand grip strength (HGS/W) method had the highest mortality hazard ratio (HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.34−1.70; p < 0.001). GLIM-defined malnutrition was diagnosed in 47.6% of patients. Severe malnutrition was an independent mortality risk factor for OS (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.10−1.42; p < 0.001). The GLIM nomogram showed good performance in predicting the survival of CRC patients and was clinically beneficial. Our findings support the effectiveness of GLIM in diagnosing malnutrition and predicting OS in CRC patients.

Lobaplatin hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy plus cytoreduction and rechallenge using cetuximab for wild-type RAS peritoneal metastatic colon cancer: a case report and literature review

BACKGROUND

Synchronous peritoneal metastasis of colorectal cancer usually predicts a bleak prognosis. Hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) and cytoreductive surgery (CRS) have brought a glimmer of hope to the treatment of peritoneal cancer. Few cases treated with lobaplatin have been reported in the literature and the regimen is controversial. In this case, the comprehensive treatment scheme of lobaplatin-based HIPEC plus CRS and rechallenge using cetuximab plus systemic chemotherapy is effective, especially for the patients with left colon cancer (wild-type RAS).

CASE PRESENTATION

A 49 year-old man with signet ring cell carcinoma of sigmoid colon with extensive abdominal metastasis (wild-type RAS) was hospitalized with prolonged abdominal pain, distention and abdominal mass. After receiving HIPEC with lobaplatin and XELOX regimen combined with cetuximab for eight cycles, the patient had been treated with the FOLFIRI regimen and cetuximab for 24 cycles, which discontinued due to myelosuppression. Because the disease recurred unfortunately 4 months later, the FOLFIRI + cetuximab regimen was initiated again and stopped after two cycles. Intestinal obstruction occurred 1 month later, so open total colectomy, CRS + HIPEC and ileorectal anastomosis were performed. Capecitabine adjuvant chemotherapy was administered, followed by the maintenance therapy with FOLFIRI + cetuximab regimen. After that, the patient has been in relatively stable condition. By August 2021, the overall survival is more than 45 months, which displays significant curative effect.

CONCLUSION

For peritoneal metastasis from left colon cancer, the management with CRS + lobaplatin HIPEC and rechallenge of systemic chemotherapy plus targeted medicine based on gene detection can dramatically improve prognosis and extend the overall survival.

A nomogram to predict risk factors of frequent defecation early after ileostomy reversal for rectal cancer patients

Background

Defecation disorders after ileostomy reversal are among the most common complications for rectal cancer patients, and significantly diminish their quality of life. The aim of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with frequent defecation early after ileostomy reversal for rectal cancer patients.

Methods

We retrospectively collected the data of rectal cancer patients who underwent ileostomy reversal from January 2018 to December 2019 at the Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University. We divided patients into two groups: a no frequent defecation group (≤7 times/day) and a frequent defecation group (>7 times/day).

Results

Of the 264 included patients, 59 patients (22.35%) had frequent defecation within 1 month after ileostomy closure and were defined as the frequent defecation group. There were no significant differences between the two groups in terms of gender, age, hypertension, and diabetes. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that proctitis (P=0.04) and anastomotic stenosis (P=0.02) were independent risk factors for frequent defecation. Four factors, including proctitis, anastomotic stenosis, hypertension, and age were included to construct the nomogram. The consistency index of the nomogram was 0.949 and the area under the curve value was 0.623.

Conclusions

For rectal cancer patients, proctitis and anastomotic stenosis were correlated with frequent defecation within 1 month after ileostomy closure. Surgeons should pay attention to the rectal examination before ileostomy reversal surgery.