Unravelling var complexity: Relationship between DBLα types and var genes in Plasmodium falciparum

Var genes, strain hyperdiversity, and malaria transmission dynamics

The microbiological paradigm for surveillance of diverse pathogens requires knowledge of the variation of the major surface antigen under the most intense immune selection as immune responses to these antigens drive transmission dynamics. This creates a pathway for population genetics/genomics to be combined with mathematical modelling to describe transmission dynamics to inform public health policy. Here we consider how we can bring population genetics and population dynamics together for a highly recombining pathogen like Plasmodium falciparum. We do this through the lens of what has been recently learnt about the population genetics of the var multigene family encoding the major surface antigen of the blood stages of Plasmodium falciparum, known as PfEMP1.

From multiplicity of infection to force of infection for sparsely sampled Plasmodium falciparum populations at high transmission

High multiplicity of infection or MOI, the number of genetically distinct parasite strains co-infecting a single human host, characterizes infectious diseases including falciparum malaria at high transmission. This high MOI accompanies high asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum prevalence despite high exposure, creating a large transmission reservoir challenging intervention. High MOI and asymptomatic prevalence are enabled by immune evasion of the parasite achieved via vast antigenic diversity. Force of infection or FOI, the number of new infections acquired by an individual host over a given time interval, is the dynamic sister quantity of MOI, and a key epidemiological parameter for monitoring antimalarial interventions and assessing vaccine or drug efficacy in clinical trials. FOI remains difficult, expensive, and labor-intensive to accurately measure, especially in high-transmission regions, whether directly via cohort studies or indirectly via the fitting of epidemiological models to repeated cross-sectional surveys. We propose here the application of queuing theory to obtain FOI from MOI, in the form of either a two-moment approximation method or Little's Law. We illustrate these two methods with MOI estimates obtained under sparse sampling schemes with the " var coding" approach. The two methods use infection duration data from naive malaria therapy patients with neurosyphilis. Consequently, they are suitable for FOI inference in subpopulations with a similar immune profile and the highest vulnerability, for example, infants or toddlers. Both methods are evaluated with simulation output from a stochastic agent-based model, and are applied to an interrupted time-series study from Bongo District in northern Ghana before and immediately after a three-round transient indoor residual spraying (IRS) intervention. The sampling of the simulation output incorporates limitations representative of those encountered in the collection of field data, including under-sampling of var genes, missing data, and antimalarial drug treatment. We address these limitations in MOI estimates with a Bayesian framework and an imputation bootstrap approach. Both methods yield good and replicable FOI estimates across various simulated scenarios. Applying these methods to the subpopulation of children aged 1-5 years in Ghana field surveys shows over a 70% reduction in annual FOI immediately post-intervention. The proposed methods should be applicable to geographical locations lacking cohort or cross-sectional studies with regular and frequent sampling but having single-time-point surveys under sparse sampling schemes, and for MOI estimates obtained in different ways. They should also be relevant to other pathogens whose immune evasion strategies are based on large antigenic variation resulting in high MOI.

A paradoxical population structure of var DBLα types in Africa

The var multigene family encodes Plasmodium falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 (PfEMP1), central to host-parasite interactions. Genome structure studies have identified three major groups of var genes by specific upstream sequences (upsA, B, or C). Var with these ups groups have different chromosomal locations, transcriptional directions, and associations with disease severity. Here we explore temporal and spatial diversity of a region of var genes encoding the DBLα domain of PfEMP1 in Africa. By applying a novel ups classification algorithm (cUps) to publicly-available DBLα sequence datasets, we categorised DBLα according to association with the three ups groups, thereby avoiding the need to sequence complete genes. Data from deep sequencing of DBLα types in a local population in northern Ghana surveyed seven times from 2012 to 2017 found variants with rare-to-moderate-to-extreme frequencies, and the common variants were temporally stable in this local endemic area. Furthermore, we observed that every isolate repertoire, whether mono- or multiclonal, comprised DBLα types occurring with these frequency ranges implying a common genome structure. When comparing African countries of Ghana, Gabon, Malawi, and Uganda, we report that some DBLα types were consistently found at high frequencies in multiple African countries while others were common only at the country level. The implication of these local and pan-Africa population patterns is discussed in terms of advantage to the parasite with regards to within-host adaptation and resilience to malaria control.

Hyper-diverse antigenic variation and resilience to transmission-reducing intervention in falciparum malaria

Intervention efforts against falciparum malaria in high-transmission regions remain challenging, with rapid resurgence typically following their relaxation. Such resilience co-occurs with incomplete immunity and a large transmission reservoir from high asymptomatic prevalence. Incomplete immunity relates to the large antigenic variation of the parasite, with the major surface antigen of the blood stage of infection encoded by the multigene and recombinant family known as var. With a stochastic agent-based model, we investigate the existence of a sharp transition in resurgence ability with intervention intensity and identify molecular indicators informative of its proximity. Their application to survey data with deep sampling of var sequences from individual isolates in northern Ghana suggests that the transmission system was brought close to transition by intervention with indoor residual spraying. These results indicate that sustaining and intensifying intervention would have pushed malaria dynamics to a slow-rebound regime with an increased probability of local parasite extinction.

Measuring changes in Plasmodium falciparum census population size in response to sequential malaria control interventions

Here we introduce a new endpoint ″census population size″ to evaluate the epidemiology and control of Plasmodium falciparum infections, where the parasite, rather than the infected human host, is the unit of measurement. To calculate census population size, we rely on a definition of parasite variation known as multiplicity of infection (MOI var ), based on the hyper-diversity of the var multigene family. We present a Bayesian approach to estimate MOI var from sequencing and counting the number of unique DBLα tags (or DBLα types) of var genes, and derive from it census population size by summation of MOI var in the human population. We track changes in this parasite population size and structure through sequential malaria interventions by indoor residual spraying (IRS) and seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) from 2012 to 2017 in an area of high-seasonal malaria transmission in northern Ghana. Following IRS, which reduced transmission intensity by > 90% and decreased parasite prevalence by ~40-50%, significant reductions in var diversity, MOI var , and population size were observed in ~2,000 humans across all ages. These changes, consistent with the loss of diverse parasite genomes, were short lived and 32-months after IRS was discontinued and SMC was introduced, var diversity and population size rebounded in all age groups except for the younger children (1-5 years) targeted by SMC. Despite major perturbations from IRS and SMC interventions, the parasite population remained very large and retained the var population genetic characteristics of a high-transmission system (high var diversity; low var repertoire similarity) demonstrating the resilience of P. falciparum to short-term interventions in high-burden countries of sub-Saharan Africa.

Hyper-diverse antigenic variation and resilience to transmission-reducing intervention in falciparum malaria

Intervention against falciparum malaria in high transmission regions remains challenging, with relaxation of control efforts typically followed by rapid resurgence. Resilience to intervention co-occurs with incomplete immunity, whereby children eventually become protected from severe disease but not infection and a large transmission reservoir results from high asymptomatic prevalence across all ages. Incomplete immunity relates to the vast antigenic variation of the parasite, with the major surface antigen of the blood stage of infection encoded by the multigene family known as var. Recent deep sampling of var sequences from individual isolates in northern Ghana showed that parasite population structure exhibited persistent features of high-transmission regions despite the considerable decrease in prevalence during transient intervention with indoor residual spraying (IRS). We ask whether despite such apparent limited impact, the transmission system had been brought close to a transition in both prevalence and resurgence ability. With a stochastic agent-based model, we investigate the existence of such a transition to pre-elimination with intervention intensity, and of molecular indicators informative of its approach. We show that resurgence ability decreases sharply and nonlinearly across a narrow region of intervention intensities in model simulations, and identify informative molecular indicators based on var gene sequences. Their application to the survey data indicates that the transmission system in northern Ghana was brought close to transition by IRS. These results suggest that sustaining and intensifying intervention would have pushed malaria dynamics to a slow-rebound regime with an increased probability of local parasite extinction.

Molecular markers for malaria genetic epidemiology: progress and pitfalls

Over recent years, progress in molecular markers for genotyping malaria parasites has enabled informative studies of epidemiology and transmission dynamics. Results have highlighted the value of these tools for surveillance to support malaria control and elimination strategies. There are many different types and panels of markers available for malaria parasite genotyping, and for end users, the nuances of these markers with respect to 'use case', resolution, and accuracy, are not well defined. This review clarifies issues surrounding different molecular markers and their application to malaria control and elimination. We describe available marker panels, use cases, implications for different transmission settings, limitations, access, cost, and data accuracy. The information provided can be used as a guide for molecular epidemiology and surveillance of malaria.

A paradoxical population structure of var DBLα types in Africa

The var multigene family encodes the P. falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 (PfEMP1), which is important in host-parasite interaction as a virulence factor and major surface antigen of the blood stages of the parasite, responsible for maintaining chronic infection. Whilst important in the biology of P. falciparum, these genes (50 to 60 genes per parasite genome) are routinely excluded from whole genome analyses due to their hyper-diversity, achieved primarily through recombination. The PfEMP1 head structure almost always consists of a DBLα-CIDR tandem. Categorised into different groups (upsA, upsB, upsC), different head structures have been associated with different ligand-binding affinities and disease severities. We study how conserved individual DBLα types are at the country, regional, and local scales in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using publicly-available sequence datasets and a novel ups classification algorithm, cUps, we performed an in silico exploration of DBLα conservation through time and space in Africa. In all three ups groups, the population structure of DBLα types in Africa consists of variants occurring at rare, low, moderate, and high frequencies. Non-rare variants were found to be temporally stable in a local area in endemic Ghana. When inspected across different geographical scales, we report different levels of conservation; while some DBLα types were consistently found in high frequencies in multiple African countries, others were conserved only locally, signifying local preservation of specific types. Underlying this population pattern is the composition of DBLα types within each isolate DBLα repertoire, revealed to also consist of a mix of types found at rare, low, moderate, and high frequencies in the population. We further discuss the adaptive forces and balancing selection, including host genetic factors, potentially shaping the evolution and diversity of DBLα types in Africa.

Comparison of molecular surveillance methods to assess changes in the population genetics of Plasmodium falciparum in high transmission

A major motivation for developing molecular methods for malaria surveillance is to measure the impact of control interventions on the population genetics of Plasmodium falciparum as a potential marker of progress towards elimination. Here we assess three established methods (i) single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) barcoding (panel of 24-biallelic loci), (ii) microsatellite genotyping (panel of 12-multiallelic loci), and (iii) varcoding (fingerprinting var gene diversity, akin to microhaplotyping) to identify changes in parasite population genetics in response to a short-term indoor residual spraying (IRS) intervention. Typical of high seasonal transmission in Africa, multiclonal infections were found in 82.3% (median 3; range 1-18) and 57.8% (median 2; range 1-12) of asymptomatic individuals pre- and post-IRS, respectively, in Bongo District, Ghana. Since directly phasing multilocus haplotypes for population genetic analysis is not possible for biallelic SNPs and microsatellites, we chose ~200 low-complexity infections biased to single and double clone infections for analysis. Each genotyping method presented a different pattern of change in diversity and population structure as a consequence of variability in usable data and the relative polymorphism of the molecular markers (i.e., SNPs < microsatellites < var). Varcoding and microsatellite genotyping showed the overall failure of the IRS intervention to significantly change the population structure from pre-IRS characteristics (i.e., many diverse genomes of low genetic similarity). The 24-SNP barcode provided limited information for analysis, largely due to the biallelic nature of SNPs leading to a high proportion of double-allele calls and a view of more isolate relatedness compared to microsatellites and varcoding. Relative performance, suitability, and cost-effectiveness of the methods relevant to sample size and local malaria elimination in high-transmission endemic areas are discussed.