Predicting the distribution of suitable habitat of the poisonous weed Astragalus variabilis in China under current and future climate conditions

Endemic cushions of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province show differential responses to future climate change

Climate change negatively affects mountainous plants and leads to their range contraction or extinction. Cushion plants are the essential components of mountainous ecosystems. Although cushions represent the dominant vegetation form of the mountains of the Irano-Anatolian Biodiversity Hotspot, the impacts of climate change on these plants have been merely studied. The present study investigates the effects of climate change on the distribution of endemic cushion species in the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh (KK) floristic province, the eastern-most part of the Irano-Anatolian Biodiversity Hotspot. We predicted the current and future range of 19 cushions in 2040 and 2100, using 19 bioclimatic layers along with two different SSPs and an ensemble of 12 modeling algorithms. These species belong to Acantholimon, Acanthophyllum, Astragalus, Jurinea, and Thymus genera. Our findings revealed that approximately all studied species will face range contraction. On the other hand, Jurinea antunowi, Acantholimon restiaceum, and Acanthophyllum speciosum will show negligible responses to climate change effects. Moreover, all analyzed species would shift upward in their altitudinal distribution range. The predicted range size contraction of the surveyed genera will vary between 36 to 91 percent, where Acanthophyllum and Thymus will show the least and the most contraction, respectively. Based on our findings, we have provided recommendations for conservation of vulnerable species and sustainable mountainous habitats restorations.

Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Papilio xuthus

The Papilio xuthus is a widely distributed species in the genus Papilio of the family Papilionidae, possessing ecological, ornamental, and socio-economic service values. To determine the ecological role of P. xuthus and assess its population distribution under future climate change scenarios, this study utilized the MaxEnt model to predict the geographic distribution of P. xuthus in the future and evaluate its population dynamics. The results indicated that P. xuthus is currently widely distributed in East Asia, with a high suitability area of 1827.83 × 103 km2, primarily in China, Japan, North Korea, and South Korea. Climate change has a significant impact on the geographic distribution of P. xuthus, with its high suitability areas decreasing in the future, particularly within China, where the change is projected to be as high as 46.46% under the SSP126 scenario by the 2050s. The centroid of its high-suitability area is expected to shift northeastward. Key environmental variable analysis revealed that Temperature Seasonality, Mean Temperature of the Wettest Quarter, Precipitation of the Wettest Month, and Precipitation of the Warmest Quarter are critical factors influencing the selection of suitable habitats by P. xuthus. This study assessed the distribution of P. xuthus and provided conservation recommendations, offering a reference for future population control and conservation efforts.

Ecological risk assessment of future suitable areas for Piper kadsura under the background of climate change

Introduction

Piper kadsura is a well-known medicinal plant that belongs to woody liana, possessing high therapeutic and economic value. The market demand of P. kadsura is huge, but its wild resources are scarce and artificial cultivation methods have not been established, which leads to a situation with strong contradiction and imbalance between supply and demand.

Methods

In this study, 303 sample of distribution data for P. kadsura in China were collected, 33 environmental variables related to terrain, climate and soil were analyzed and the suitable habitats of P. kadsura during various periods were predicted by MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, aiming to provide a basis for scientific cultivation and effective utilization of resources.

Results

The results indicated that precipitation and temperature were significant factors in the distribution of P. kadsura. The primary environmental variables influencing the potential distribution of P. kadsura were precipitation during the driest quarter (Bio17), annual precipitation (Bio12), mean diurnal range (Bio2), and annual temperature range (Bio7). Among them, precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17) was the most influential environmental variable for the distribution of P. kadsura with the range between 100.68 and 274.48 mm. The current distribution of P. kadsura is mainly located in the coastal areas of eastern and southern China, especially Guangxi, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Fujian, with a total area of 51.74 × 104 km2. Future climate change of global warming will lead to a reduction in the total suitable areas and high suitable areas under various climate scenarios. Especially in the SSP585 scenario, the total suitable area and the highly suitable area will be significantly reduced by 89.26% and 87.95% compared with the present during the 2090s.

Discussion

Overall, these findings can provide useful references for the suitable areas' determination of wild resources, optimization of artificial cultivation and scientific selection of high quality medicinal materials on P. kadsura.

Potentially suitable habitats of Daodi goji berry in China under climate change

Introduction

Goji berry (Lycium barbarum L.) is a famous edible and medicinal herb worldwide with considerable consumption. The recent cultivation of goji berries in the Daodi region was seriously reduced due to increased production costs and the influence of policy on preventing nongrain use of arable land in China. Consequently, production of Daodi goji berry was insufficient to meet market demands for high-quality medicinal materials. Searching for regions similar to the Daodi region was necessary.

Methods

The MaxEnt model was used to predicted the current and future potential regions suitable for goji berry in China based on the environmental characteristics of the Daodi region (including Zhongning County of Zhongwei prefecture-level city, and its surroundings), and the ArcGIS software was used to analyze the changes in its suitable region.

Results

The results showed that when the parameters were FC = LQHP and RM = 2.1, the MaxEnt model was optimal, and the AUC and TSS values were greater than 0.90. The mean temperature and precipitation of the coldest quarter were the most critical variables shaping the distribution of Daodi goji berries. Under current climate conditions, the suitable habitats of the Daodi goji berry were 45,973.88 km2, accounting for 0.48% of China's land area, which were concentrated in the central and western Ningxia Province (22,589.42 km2), and the central region of Gansu Province (18,787.07 km2) bordering western Ningxia. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area was higher than that under current climate conditions and reached the maximum under RCP 6.0 (91,256.42 km2) in the 2050s and RCP 8.5 (82,459.17 km2) in the 2070s. The expansion regions were mainly distributed in the northeast of the current suitable ranges, and the distributional centroids were mainly shifted to the northeast. The moderately and highly suitable overlapping habitats were mainly distributed in Baiyin (7,241.75 km2), Zhongwei (6,757.81 km2), and Wuzhong (5, 236.87 km2) prefecture-level cities.

Discussion

In this stduy, MaxEnt and ArcGIS were applied to predict and analyze the suitable habitats of Daodi goji berry in China under climate change. Our results indicate that climate warming is conducive to cultivating Daodi goji berry and will not cause a shift in the Daodi region. The goji berry produced in Baiyin could be used to satisfy the demand for high-quality medicinal materials. This study addresses the insufficient supply and guides the cultivation of Daodi goji berry.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities in soils where astragalus had grown for 2 years were similar to those in the abandoned farmland

Purpose

Astragalus-cultivated soils are enriched in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF); however, the community changes of AMF between years in stragalus-cultivated soils are still unclear.

Methods

To illustrate this, using high-throughput amplicon sequencing and quantitative real-time PCR, we analyzed the AMF communities of the abandoned farmlands and interannual astragalus-cultivated soils for 1-, 2-, 3-, and 4-years, including community composition, dominant, core, specific and significantly fluctuating AMF, co-occurrence network, alpha diversity, and beta diversity.

Results

A total of 74 OTUs were classified into one phylum, Glomeromycota; one class, Glomeromycetes; four orders; four families; and six genera. The 2-year soil had the highest number of reads among the interannual soils. Only one OTU was shared among all interannual soils. The treatments significantly affected the Ace, Shannoneven, and Shannon estimators of the communities. The 2-year soil had the highest richness, evenness, and diversity among all interannual soils and was the closest to the abandoned farmland in terms of alpha diversity. Glomus of the family Glomeraceae was the dominant genus present in all treatments, and the composition of the dominant genus in interannual soils was different. Both Glomus and Diversispora were the core AMF in interannual soils, and specific AMF existed in different interannual soils. Glomus is a genus that exhibits significant interannual variation. The interannual time significantly affected the network connectivity. The results of the principal coordinate analysis showed that the community composition of the interannual soils was close to each other and separated from the abandoned farmland, and that the interannual time significantly affected the community composition.

Conclusion

Among the interannual soils, the 2-year soil may be more suitable for A. sinensis seedling rotation.

Modeling of the potential geographical distribution of naked oat under climate change

INTRODUCTION

Naked oat (Avena sativa L.), is an important miscellaneous grain crop in China, which is rich in protein, amino acids, fat and soluble dietary fiber. The demand for functional foods is gradually increasing as living standards rise, and the output of minor cereals in China is increasing annually. The planting layout of naked oat is scattered and lacks planning, which seriously restricts the development of the naked oat industry. The increase in miscellaneous grain production will not only be impacted by cultivation methods and management techniques, but the potential impact of global climate change needs to be considered. North China is the main area for naked oat production, worldwide.

METHODS

In this study, the potential distribution range of naked oat in North China was forecast based on historical distribution data and the Maxent model under climate change conditions. The performance of the model was relatively high.

RESULTS

The results indicated that the most suitable area for the potential geographic distribution of naked oat in North China was 27.89×104 km², including central and northeastern Shanxi, and northeastern and western Hebei and Beijing, gradually moving northward. The core suitable area increased, and the distribution of naked oat had an obvious regional response to climate warming; the main environmental factors affecting the potential geographic distribution were precipitation factor variables (precipitation seasonality (variation coefficient)), terrain factor variables (elevation) and temperature factor variables (temperature seasonality (Standard Deviation*100)).

DISCUSSION

In this study, the Maxent model was used to analyze and predict suitable areas for naked oat in North China, and the distribution of suitable areas was accurately divided, and the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of naked oat were identified. This research provides data support and theoretical support for the optimal planting zone of naked oat in North China.