Prediction and Prevention in the Clinical High-Risk for Psychosis Paradigm: A Review of the Current Status and Recommendations for Future Directions of Inquiry

Racial Disparities Among Clinical High-Risk and First-Episode Psychosis Multisite Research Participants: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

The NIH has mandated equal representation of Black, Indigenous, and people of color (BIPOC) individuals in clinical research, but it is unclear whether such inclusion has been achieved in multisite research studies of individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis or with first-episode psychosis (FEP). An assessment of inclusion rates is important for understanding the social determinants of psychosis and psychosis risk that specifically affect BIPOC individuals.

METHODS

The authors conducted a systematic review of the literature published between 1993 and 2022 of multisite research studies of clinical high risk for psychosis and FEP in North America to determine ethnoracial inclusion rates. Using an online systematic review tool, the authors checked 2,278 studies for eligibility. Twelve studies met all inclusion criteria. Data were extracted, and demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, study design, and recruitment strategies used by each study were analyzed.

RESULTS

Most (62%) of the participants in studies of clinical high risk for psychosis were White. Compared with national data, the demographic characteristics of individuals with clinical high risk were representative across most ethnoracial groups. Black participants (43%) made up the largest ethnoracial group in FEP studies and were overrepresented compared with their representation in the U.S. population. FEP studies were more likely to recruit participants from community mental health centers than were the studies of clinical high risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Although these results suggest high representation of BIPOC individuals in psychosis research, opportunities exist for an improved focus on ethnoracial representation. The authors offer recommendations for practices that may increase ethnoracial diversity in future psychosis study samples.

Race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status as predictors of outcome following family therapy in youth at clinical high risk for psychosis

AIM

There is limited research on the effects of sociodemographic and socioeconomic factors on treatment outcomes in youth at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHRp). This study examined sociodemographic factors that may affect functional outcomes within this population. Specifically, we investigated the influence of race/ethnicity (dichotomized as non-Hispanic whites [NHW] vs. people of colour [POC]), socioeconomic status (SES; operationalized as parental years of education), and their interaction on change in psychosocial functioning and symptoms over 6 months in a randomized trial of family-focused therapy.

METHODS

CHRp youth (N = 128) participated in a randomized trial of family therapy (18 sessions of family therapy vs. 3 sessions of family psychoeducation). Sixty-four participants who self-identified as POC and 64 self-identified NHW participants completed baseline and 6-month follow-up measures of positive and negative symptoms and psychosocial (global, role, and social) functioning. Multiple regression models were conducted to test the main effect of race/ethnicity on changes in positive and negative symptoms and functioning, and whether this effect was moderated by parental education.

RESULTS

There was a significant interaction between race/ethnicity and parental education, such that higher parental education was associated with greater improvement in global functioning in NHW participants, but there was no relationship between parental education and global functioning in POC. Additionally, higher parental education was associated with a decrease in negative symptoms in NHW participants but not in POC. There were no significant effects of race/ethnicity or parental education on positive symptoms, nor on social or role functioning.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinicians may consider tailoring psychosocial treatments according to the needs of diverse families who vary in sociodemographic factors such as educational attainment and race/ethnicity.

On the proportion of patients who experience a prodrome prior to psychosis onset: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Preventing or delaying the onset of psychosis requires identification of those at risk for developing psychosis. For predictive purposes, the prodrome - a constellation of symptoms which may occur before the onset of psychosis - has been increasingly recognized as having utility. However, it is unclear what proportion of patients experience a prodrome or how this varies based on the multiple definitions used.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies of patients with psychosis with the objective of determining the proportion of patients who experienced a prodrome prior to psychosis onset. Inclusion criteria included a consistent prodrome definition and reporting the proportion of patients who experienced a prodrome. We excluded studies of only patients with a prodrome or solely substance-induced psychosis, qualitative studies without prevalence data, conference abstracts, and case reports/case series. We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Embase (Ovid), APA PsycInfo (Ovid), Web of Science Core Collection (Clarivate), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, APA PsycBooks (Ovid), ProQuest Dissertation & Thesis, on March 3, 2021. Studies were assessed for quality using the Critical Appraisal Checklist for Prevalence Studies. Narrative synthesis and proportion meta-analysis were used to estimate prodrome prevalence. I2 and predictive interval were used to assess heterogeneity. Subgroup analyses were used to probe sources of heterogeneity. (PROSPERO ID: CRD42021239797).

RESULTS

Seventy-one articles were included, representing 13,774 patients. Studies varied significantly in terms of methodology and prodrome definition used. The random effects proportion meta-analysis estimate for prodrome prevalence was 78.3% (95% CI = 72.8-83.2); heterogeneity was high (I2 97.98% [95% CI = 97.71-98.22]); and the prediction interval was wide (95% PI = 0.411-0.936). There were no meaningful differences in prevalence between grouped prodrome definitions, and subgroup analyses failed to reveal a consistent source of heterogeneity.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first meta-analysis on the prevalence of a prodrome prior to the onset of first episode psychosis. The majority of patients (78.3%) were found to have experienced a prodrome prior to psychosis onset. However, findings are highly heterogenous across study and no definitive source of heterogeneity was found despite extensive subgroup analyses. As most studies were retrospective in nature, recall bias likely affects these results. While the large majority of patients with psychosis experience a prodrome in some form, it is unclear if the remainder of patients experience no prodrome, or if ascertainment methods employed in the studies were not sensitive to their experiences. Given widespread investment in indicated prevention of psychosis through prospective identification and intervention during the prodrome, a resolution of this question as well as a consensus definition of the prodrome is much needed in order to effectively direct and organize services, and may be accomplished through novel, densely sampled and phenotyped prospective cohort studies that aim for representative sampling across multiple settings.

Improving prediction of psychosis in youth at clinical high-risk: pre-baseline symptom duration and cortical thinning as moderators of the NAPLS2 risk calculator

BACKGROUND

Clinical implementation of risk calculator models in the clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) population has been hindered by heterogeneous risk distributions across study cohorts which could be attributed to pre-ascertainment illness progression. To examine this, we tested whether the duration of attenuated psychotic symptom (APS) worsening prior to baseline moderated performance of the North American prodrome longitudinal study 2 (NAPLS2) risk calculator. We also examined whether rates of cortical thinning, another marker of illness progression, bolstered clinical prediction models.

METHODS

Participants from both the NAPLS2 and NAPLS3 samples were classified as either 'long' or 'short' symptom duration based on time since APS increase prior to baseline. The NAPLS2 risk calculator model was applied to each of these groups. In a subset of NAPLS3 participants who completed follow-up magnetic resonance imaging scans, change in cortical thickness was combined with the individual risk score to predict conversion to psychosis.

RESULTS

The risk calculator models achieved similar performance across the combined NAPLS2/NAPLS3 sample [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.69], the long duration group (AUC = 0.71), and the short duration group (AUC = 0.71). The shorter duration group was younger and had higher baseline APS than the longer duration group. The addition of cortical thinning improved the prediction of conversion significantly for the short duration group (AUC = 0.84), with a moderate improvement in prediction for the longer duration group (AUC = 0.78).

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that early illness progression differs among CHR-P patients, is detectable with both clinical and neuroimaging measures, and could play an essential role in the prediction of clinical outcomes.

Risk for psychiatric and substance use disorders as a function of transitions in Sweden's public educational system: a national study

BACKGROUND

To clarify, in a national sample, associations between risk for seven psychiatric and substance use disorders and five key transitions in Sweden's public educational system.

METHODS

Swedish-born individuals (1972-1995, N = 1 997 910) were followed through 12-31-2018, at mean age 34.9. We predicted, from these educational transitions, risk for major depression (MD), obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), bipolar disorder (BD), schizophrenia (SZ), anorexia nervosa (AN), alcohol use disorder (AUD), and drug use disorder (DUD), assessed from Swedish national registers, by Cox regression, censoring individuals with onsets ⩽17. We also predicted risk from the deviation of grades from family-genetic expectations (deviation 1) and from changes in grades from ages 16 to 19 (deviation 2).

RESULTS

We observed four major risk patterns across transitions in our disorders: (i) MD and BD, (ii) OCD and SZ, (iii) AUD and DUD, and (iv) AN. Failing early educational transitions had the greatest impact on risk for OCD and SZ while for other disorders, not progressing from basic to upper high school had the largest effect. Completing vocational v. college-prep upper high school was strongly associated with risk for AUD and DUD, had little relation with MD, OCD, BD, and SZ risk, and was protective for AN. Deviation 1 predicted risk most strongly for SZ, AN, and MD. Deviation 2 predicted risk most strongly for SZ, AUD, and DUD.

CONCLUSIONS

The pattern of educational transitions and within family and within person development deviations are strongly and relatively specifically associated with future risk for seven psychiatric and substance-use disorders.

[Willingness to expend effort for rewards in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis: a relationship with the severity and stability of negative symptoms]

OBJECTIVE

To identify the deficit in willingness to expend effort and its association with negative symptoms in the high-risk for psychosis (CHR) group.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The study included young men: 45 patients, who met CHR criteria and were treated for a depressive episode, and 15 controls. All subjects completed a modified version of the Effort Expenditure for Rewards Task (EEfRT). The CHR group was assessed with the SOPS, SANS and HDRS at the beginning and at the end of treatment. EEfRT was performed only at the end of treatment.

RESULTS

The CHR group was significantly less likely to choose high effort tasks across reward probability and magnitude levels compared with the control group (all p<0.001). No significant correlations were found between the rate of selecting the high effort task and the negative syndrome domains of amotivation and diminished expression. The subgroups of CHR with stable and transient (i.e., with a reduction >50% during treatment) negative symptoms, which were identified by a cluster analysis, did not differ in the willingness to expend effort.

CONCLUSION

The study confirmed a decrease in the willingness to expend effort in the CHR group; however, this deficit was only weakly correlated with negative symptoms and persisted after the symptoms reduction during treatment, which requires future studies to investigate mechanisms underlying impaired effort expenditure for rewards in CHR.

Correlations between Negative Symptoms and Cognitive Deficits in Individuals at First Psychotic Episode or at High Risk of Psychosis: A Systematic Review

The present review aims to identify correlations between negative symptoms (NS) and deficits in neurocognition and social cognition in subjects with first-episode psychosis (FEP) and at-high-risk populations (HR). A systematic search of the literature published between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2022 was conducted on PubMed, Scopus, and PsycInfo. Out of the 4599 records identified, a total of 32 studies met our inclusion/exclusion criteria. Data on a total of 3086 FEP and 1732 HR were collected. The available evidence shows that NS correlate with executive functioning and theory of mind deficits in FEP subjects, and with deficits in the processing speed, attention and vigilance, and working memory in HR subjects. Visual learning and memory do not correlate with NS in either FEP or HR subjects. More inconsistent findings were retrieved in relation to other cognitive domains in both samples. The available evidence is limited by sample and methodological heterogeneity across studies and was rated as poor or average quality for the majority of included studies in both FEP and CHR populations. Further research based on shared definitions of first-episode psychosis and at-risk states, as well as on more recent conceptualizations of negative symptoms and cognitive impairment, is highly needed.

Recent Updates on Predicting Conversion in Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review highlights recent advances in the prediction and treatment of psychotic conversion. Over the past 25 years, research into the prodromal phase of psychotic illness has expanded with the promise of early identification of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis who are likely to convert to psychosis.

RECENT FINDINGS

Meta-analyses highlight conversion rates between 20 and 30% within 2-3 years using existing clinical criteria while research into more specific risk factors, biomarkers, and refinement of psychosis risk calculators has exploded, improving our ability to predict psychotic conversion with greater accuracy. Recent studies highlight risk factors and biomarkers likely to contribute to earlier identification and provide insight into neurodevelopmental abnormalities, CHR subtypes, and interventions that can target specific risk profiles linked to neural mechanisms. Ongoing initiatives that assess longer-term (> 5-10 years) outcome of CHR participants can provide valuable information about predictors of later conversion and diagnostic outcomes while large-scale international biomarker studies provide hope for precision intervention that will alter the course of early psychosis globally.

The role of mentalizing in the relationship between schizotypal personality traits and state signs of psychosis risk captured by cognitive and perceptive basic symptoms

Objective

Schizotypal traits and disturbances in mentalizing (the capacity to understand the mental states driving one's own and others' behaviors) have been implicated in increased vulnerability for psychosis. Therefore, we explored the associations linking schizotypal traits, mentalizing difficulties and their interactions to clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P), as captured by the Basic Symptoms (BS) approach, during adolescence and young adulthood.

Methods

Eighty-seven adolescents and young adults from the general population (46% male, 44% female; age: 14-23 years) were assessed with the Schizophrenia Proneness Interview (SPI-CY/A) for 11 perceptive and cognitive BS, with the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire (SPQ) for schizotypal traits, and with the Reflective Functioning Questionnaire (RFQ) for self-reported mentalizing abilities. The RFQ evaluates the level of certainty (RFQc scale) and uncertainty (RFQu scale) with which individuals use mental state information to explain their own and others' behaviors.

Results

Logistic regression models showed significant positive effects of the SPQ disorganization scale on perceptive BS and of the SPQ interpersonal scale on cognitive BS. Post-hoc analyses revealed that schizotypal features pertaining to odd speech and social anxiety, respectively, were associated with perceptive and cognitive BS. Furthermore, higher scores on the RFQu scale and lower scores on the RFQc scale independently explained the presence of cognitive BS. Finally, significant interaction effects between RFQc and SPQ odd speech on perceptive BS, and between RFQc and SPQ social anxiety on cognitive BS were found.

Conclusion

Our findings suggest that schizotypal traits and mentalizing significantly relate both independently and through their interactions to the presence of cognitive and perceptive BS included in CHR-P criteria. Furthermore, mentalizing dysfunction may contribute in the relation between schizotypal traits and early state signs of CHR-P. Mentalizing may support both detection and early treatment of CHR-P among adolescents and young adults who present with trait risk for psychosis.

Predictors of transition in patients with clinical high risk for psychosis: an umbrella review

Diagnosis of a clinical high-risk (CHR) state enables timely treatment of individuals at risk for a psychotic disorder, thereby contributing to improving illness outcomes. However, only a minority of patients diagnosed with CHR will make the transition to overt psychosis. To identify patients most likely to benefit from early intervention, several studies have investigated characteristics that distinguish CHR patients who will later develop a psychotic disorder from those who will not. We aimed to summarize evidence from systematic reviews and meta-analyses on predictors of transition to psychosis in CHR patients, among characteristics and biomarkers assessed at baseline. A systematic search was conducted in Pubmed, Scopus, PsychInfo and Cochrane databases to identify reviews and meta-analyses of studies that investigated specific baseline predictors or biomarkers for transition to psychosis in CHR patients using a cross-sectional or longitudinal design. Non-peer-reviewed publications, gray literature, narrative reviews and publications not written in English were excluded from analyses. We provide a narrative synthesis of results from all included reviews and meta-analyses. For each included publication, we indicate the number of studies cited in each domain and its quality rating. A total of 40 publications (21 systematic reviews and 19 meta-analyses) that reviewed a total of 272 original studies qualified for inclusion. Baseline predictors most consistently associated with later transition included clinical characteristics such as attenuated psychotic and negative symptoms and functioning, verbal memory deficits and the electrophysiological marker of mismatch negativity. Few predictors reached a level of evidence sufficient to inform clinical practice, reflecting generalizability issues in a field characterized by studies with small, heterogeneous samples and relatively few transition events. Sample pooling and harmonization of methods across sites and projects are necessary to overcome these limitations.

Sleep disturbances and the association with attenuated psychotic symptoms in individuals at ultra high-risk of psychosis

Sleep disturbances are common in individuals at ultra high-risk (UHR) of psychosis and have proven to play a causal role in the occurrence of psychotic symptoms in healthy individuals. Only a few studies have systematically investigated sleep disturbances in UHR individuals. The help-seeking UHR individuals were 18-40 years old, and we included 72 UHR individuals according to the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental State criteria (CAARMS) and 36 healthy controls. Sleep was measured with a modified version of the Karolinska Sleep Questionnaire and actigraphy for one night, and melatonin was measured at awakening and bedtime. We compared subjective rated sleep and actigraphy between healthy and UHR individuals (t-test and chi-square test) and examined the association between a CAARMS-composite score (linear regression). UHR individuals subjectively experienced poor sleep, categorised as disturbed sleep- and awakening index compared with healthy controls. We found no differences in actigraphy variables or morning/evening melatonin between UHR and healthy controls (t-test and chi-square). A high CAARMS-composite score was associated with high morning melatonin (B = 0.15, CI 0.02 to 0.27, p = 0.024) and high awakening index (B = 1.86, CI 0.58 to 3.14, p = 0.004) in UHR individuals. The results suggest that UHR individuals with high CAARMS scores have a delayed sleep phase; they have difficulties waking up and feel exhausted at awakening. It might be necessary to evaluate how UHR individuals sleep, and it would be of great interest to follow these patients over time according to the development of psychosis.

Specific facial emotion recognition deficits across the course of psychosis: A comparison of individuals with low-risk, high-risk, first-episode psychosis and multi-episode schizophrenia-spectrum disorders

Our study aimed to explore the recognition of specific emotions across the course of psychosis. A visual task representing the six basic emotions was used to assess facial emotion recognition (FER) in 204 healthy controls classified into 152 low-risk (LR) and 52 high-risk for psychosis (HR), following a psychometric risk approach; and 100 patients: 44 with first-episode psychosis (FEP) and 56 with multi-episode schizophrenia-spectrum disorders (MES). First, we performed a MANCOVA to compare the four conditions. Next, we conducted a logistic regression to explore whether specific FER deficits predicted the presence of psychosis. Finally, we investigated the relationships of FER with psychosis-like experiences (PLEs) and psychotic symptoms. Global FER, anger and fear recognition were impaired in HR, FEP and MES. No differences between HR and FEP appeared. Moreover, fear and anger correctly classified 83% of individuals into LR or psychosis. FER was associated with PLEs and psychotic symptoms. Concluding, FER is early impaired in HR individuals and increases along the psychosis continuum. However, fear recognition is similarly impaired throughout the illness, suggesting a possible vulnerability marker. Furthermore, deficits in anger and fear recognition predicted the presence of psychosis. Therefore, we suggest that FER may be essential in detecting psychosis risk.