Models of Dynamic Belief Updating in Psychosis-A Review Across Different Computational Approaches

Belief Updating, Childhood Maltreatment, and Paranoia in Schizophrenia-Spectrum Disorders

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

Exposure to childhood maltreatment-a risk factor for psychosis that is associated with paranoia-may impact one's beliefs about the world and how beliefs are updated. We hypothesized that increased exposure to childhood maltreatment is related to volatility-related belief updating, specifically higher expectations of volatility, and that these relationships are strongest for threat-related maltreatment. Additionally, we tested whether belief updating mediates the relationship between maltreatment and paranoia.

STUDY DESIGN

Belief updating was measured in 75 patients with schizophrenia-spectrum disorders and 76 nonpsychiatric controls using a 3-option probabilistic reversal learning (3PRL) task. A Hierarchical Gaussian Filter (HGF) was used to estimate computational parameters of belief updating, including prior expectations of volatility (μ03). The Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ) was used to assess cumulative maltreatment, threat, and deprivation exposure. Paranoia was measured using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) and the revised Green et al. Paranoid Thoughts Scale (R-GPTS).

RESULTS

Greater exposure to childhood maltreatment is associated with higher prior expectations of volatility in the whole sample and in individuals with schizophrenia-spectrum disorders. This was specific to threat-related maltreatment, rather than deprivation, in schizophrenia-spectrum disorders. Paranoia was associated with both exposure to childhood maltreatment and volatility priors, but we did not observe a significant indirect effect of volatility priors on the relationship between maltreatment and paranoia.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that individuals with schizophrenia-spectrum disorders who were exposed to threatening experiences during childhood expect their environment to be more volatile, potentially facilitating aberrant belief updating and conferring risk for paranoia.

Beyond reward learning deficits: Exploration-exploitation instability reveals computational heterogeneity in value-based decision making in early psychosis

Psychosis spectrum illnesses are characterized by impaired goal-directed behavior and significant neurophysiological heterogeneity. To investigate the neurocomputational underpinnings of this heterogeneity, 75 participants with Early Psychosis (EP) and 68 controls completed a dynamic decision-making task. Consistent with prior studies, EP exhibited more choice switching, not explained by reward learning deficits, but instead by increased transition to exploration from exploitation. Bayesian modeling implicated elevated uncertainty intolerance and decision noise as independent contributors to suboptimal transition dynamics across individuals, which identified three computational subtypes with unique cognitive and symptom profiles. Replicating prior studies, a high decision-noise subtype emerged showing learning deficits and worse negative symptoms; our analyses further uncovered a normative subtype with worse mood symptoms and a novel uncertainty-intolerance subtype with higher hospitalization rates. These specific microcognitive disruptions underlying the distinct neurocomputational subtypes are individually measurable and may have the potential for targeted interventions.

Neural correlates of uncertainty processing in psychosis spectrum disorder

Psychotic beliefs are typically held with high certainty. Altered computation of uncertainty about a belief and about environmental dynamics may be an underlying mechanism of psychotic symptoms. We set out to shed light on behavioural and neural correlates of uncertainty processing and how it drives belief updating in psychosis. This cross-sectional study included 19 participants with psychosis spectrum disorder (5 female and 14 male) and 40 healthy control participants (21 female and 19 male) between 18 and 65 years of age. Participants performed a predictive inference task that required belief updating of a noisy outcome in a suddenly changing environment during functional magnetic resonance imaging. Behavioural and imaging data were analysed with a computational model that approximates an ideal Bayesian observer. The model expects beliefs to be updated based on the relative belief uncertainty and environmental change point probability. Task performance, model parameters and associated neural activation were compared between groups and associated with self-reported delusional ideation and cognitive functioning. While the belief updating speed overall did not differ between groups, the psychosis group showed lower task performance. Lower performance was associated with higher self-reported delusional ideation, even when controlling for cognitive functioning. Persons with psychosis spectrum disorder tended to persevere on beliefs after large prediction errors that signal environmental changes. They informed belief updates less by the probability of environmental change points, although this capacity seemed to depend on general cognitive functioning. The psychosis group also encoded the change point probability less in the superior occipital and fusiform gyrus, as well as a cluster comprising pre-central to middle frontal gyrus. Activity in these clusters was associated with lower self-reported delusional ideation across the whole sample and lower general and negative symptoms in the clinical sample. Persons with psychosis spectrum disorder did not seem to overestimate environmental volatility in general. Instead, they showed altered processing of information that occurred after environmental change points, whose probability was less well represented in brain regions encoding visual surprise and motor responses. Possibly, persons with psychosis spectrum disorder inadequately integrated visual surprise signals, leading to ineffective transmission to motor regions that eventually guide behaviour. Summarizing, our study suggests that delusions could result from a tendency to stick to old beliefs even in the light of contrary evidence, due to a failure to integrate uncertainty information based on inferred environmental dynamics.

A Computational Account of the Development and Evolution of Psychotic Symptoms

The mechanisms of psychotic symptoms such as hallucinations and delusions are often investigated in fully formed illness, well after symptoms emerge. These investigations have yielded key insights but are not well positioned to reveal the dynamic forces underlying symptom formation itself. Understanding symptom development over time would allow us to identify steps in the pathophysiological process leading to psychosis, shifting the focus of psychiatric intervention from symptom alleviation to prevention. We propose a model for understanding the emergence of psychotic symptoms within the context of an adaptive, developing neural system. We make the case for a pathophysiological process that begins with cortical hyperexcitability and bottom-up noise transmission, which engenders inappropriate belief formation via aberrant prediction error signaling. We argue that this bottom-up noise drives learning about the (im)precision of new incoming sensory information because of diminished signal-to-noise ratio, causing a compensatory relative overreliance on prior beliefs. This overreliance on priors predisposes to hallucinations and covaries with hallucination severity. An overreliance on priors may also lead to increased conviction in the beliefs generated by bottom-up noise and drive movement toward conversion to psychosis. We identify predictions of our model at each stage, examine evidence to support or refute those predictions, and propose experiments that could falsify or help select between alternative elements of the overall model. Nesting computational abnormalities within longitudinal development allows us to account for hidden dynamics among the mechanisms driving symptom formation and to view established symptoms as a point of equilibrium among competing biological forces.

Reviewing explore/exploit decision-making as a transdiagnostic target for psychosis, depression, and anxiety

In many everyday decisions, individuals choose between trialling something novel or something they know well. Deciding when to try a new option or stick with an option that is already known to you, known as the "explore/exploit" dilemma, is an important feature of cognition that characterises a range of decision-making contexts encountered by humans. Recent evidence has suggested preferences in explore/exploit biases are associated with psychopathology, although this has typically been examined within individual disorders. The current review examined whether explore/exploit decision-making represents a promising transdiagnostic target for psychosis, depression, and anxiety. A systematic search of academic databases was conducted, yielding a total of 29 studies. Studies examining psychosis were mostly consistent in showing that individuals with psychosis explored more compared with individuals without psychosis. The literature on anxiety and depression was more heterogenous; some studies found that anxiety and depression were associated with more exploration, whereas other studies demonstrated reduced exploration in anxiety and depression. However, examining a subset of studies that employed case-control methods, there was some evidence that both anxiety and depression also were associated with increased exploration. Due to the heterogeneity across the literature, we suggest that there is insufficient evidence to conclude whether explore/exploit decision-making is a transdiagnostic target for psychosis, depression, and anxiety. However, alongside our advisory groups of lived experience advisors, we suggest that this context of decision-making is a promising candidate that merits further investigation using well-powered, longitudinal designs. Such work also should examine whether biases in explore/exploit choices are amenable to intervention.

Individual differences in belief updating and phasic arousal are related to psychosis proneness

Many decisions entail the updating of beliefs about the state of the environment by accumulating noisy sensory evidence. This form of probabilistic reasoning may go awry in psychosis. Computational theory shows that optimal belief updating in environments subject to hidden changes in their state requires a dynamic modulation of the evidence accumulation process. Recent empirical findings implicate transient responses of pupil-linked central arousal systems to individual evidence samples in this modulation. Here, we analyzed behavior and pupil responses during evidence accumulation in a changing environment in a community sample of human participants. We also assessed their subclinical psychotic experiences (psychosis proneness). Participants most prone to psychosis showed overall less flexible belief updating profiles, with diminished behavioral impact of evidence samples occurring late during decision formation. These same individuals also exhibited overall smaller pupil responses and less reliable pupil encoding of computational variables governing the dynamic belief updating. Our findings provide insights into the cognitive and physiological bases of psychosis proneness and open paths to unraveling the pathophysiology of psychotic disorders.

Exploring the relationship between frequent cannabis use, belief updating under uncertainty and psychotic-like symptoms

Background

Cannabis users present an important group for investigating putative mechanisms underlying psychosis, as cannabis-use is associated with an increased risk of psychosis. Recent work suggests that alterations in belief-updating under uncertainty underlie psychosis. We therefore compared belief updating under uncertainty between cannabis and non-cannabis users.

Methods

49 regular cannabis users and 52 controls completed the Space Game, via an online platform used for behavioral testing. In the task, participants were asked to predict the location of the stimulus based on previous information, under different uncertainty conditions. Mixed effects models were used to identify significant predictors of mean score, confidence, performance error and learning rate.

Results

Both groups showed decreased confidence in high noise conditions, and increased belief updating in more volatile conditions, suggesting that they could infer the degree and sources of uncertainty. There were no significant effects of group on any of the performance indices. However, within the cannabis group, frequent users showed worse performance than less frequent users.

Conclusion

Belief updating under uncertainty is not affected by cannabis use status but could be impaired in those who use cannabis more frequently. This finding could show a similarity between frequent cannabis use and psychosis risk, as predictors for abnormal belief-updating.

A systematic review of performance-based assessment studies on cognitive biases in schizophrenia spectrum psychoses and clinical high-risk states: A summary of 40 years of research

Cognitive models of psychosis have stimulated empirical studies on cognitive biases involved in schizophrenia spectrum psychoses and their symptoms. This systematic review aimed to summarize the studies on the role of cognitive biases as assessed in different performance-based tasks in schizophrenia spectrum psychoses and clinical high-risk states. We focused on five cognitive biases linked to psychosis, i.e., aberrant salience, attentional biases, source monitoring biases, jumping to conclusions, and bias against disconfirmatory evidence. We identified N = 324 studies published in N = 308 articles fulfilling inclusion criteria. Most studies have been cross-sectional and confirmed that the schizophrenia spectrum psychoses are related to exaggerated cognitive biases compared to healthy controls. On the contrary, less evidence suggests a higher tendency for cognitive biases in the UHR sample. The only exceptions were source monitoring and jumping to conclusions, which were confirmed to be exaggerated in both clinical groups. Hallucinations and delusions were the most frequent symptoms studied in the context of cognitive biases. Based on the findings, we presented a hypothetical model on the role of interactions between cognitive biases or additive effects of biases in shaping the risk of psychosis. Future research is warranted for further development of cognitive models for psychosis.

Bayesian accounts of perceptual decisions in the nonclinical continuum of psychosis: Greater imprecision in both top-down and bottom-up processes

Neurocomputational accounts of psychosis propose mechanisms for how information is integrated into a predictive model of the world, in attempts to understand the occurrence of altered perceptual experiences. Conflicting Bayesian theories postulate aberrations in either top-down or bottom-up processing. The top-down theory predicts an overreliance on prior beliefs or expectations resulting in aberrant perceptual experiences, whereas the bottom-up theory predicts an overreliance on current sensory information, as aberrant salience is directed towards objectively uninformative stimuli. This study empirically adjudicates between these models. We use a perceptual decision-making task in a neurotypical population with varying degrees of psychotic-like experiences. Bayesian modelling was used to compute individuals' reliance on prior relative to sensory information. Across two datasets (discovery dataset n = 363; independent replication in validation dataset n = 782) we showed that psychotic-like experiences were associated with an overweighting of sensory information relative to prior expectations, which seem to be driven by decreased precision afforded to prior information. However, when prior information was more uncertain, participants with greater psychotic-like experiences encoded sensory information with greater noise. Greater psychotic-like experiences were associated with aberrant precision in the encoding both prior and likelihood information, which we suggest may be related to generally heightened perceptions of task instability. Our study lends empirical support to notions of both weaker bottom-up and weaker (rather than stronger) top-down perceptual processes, as well as aberrancies in belief updating that extend into the non-clinical continuum of psychosis.

Integrative Brain Network and Salience Models of Psychopathology and Cognitive Dysfunction in Schizophrenia

Brain network models of cognitive control are central to advancing our understanding of psychopathology and cognitive dysfunction in schizophrenia. This review examines the role of large-scale brain organization in schizophrenia, with a particular focus on a triple-network model of cognitive control and its role in aberrant salience processing. First, we provide an overview of the triple network involving the salience, frontoparietal, and default mode networks and highlight the central role of the insula-anchored salience network in the aberrant mapping of salient external and internal events in schizophrenia. We summarize the extensive evidence that has emerged from structural, neurochemical, and functional brain imaging studies for aberrancies in these networks and their dynamic temporal interactions in schizophrenia. Next, we consider the hypothesis that atypical striatal dopamine release results in misattribution of salience to irrelevant external stimuli and self-referential mental events. We propose an integrated triple-network salience-based model incorporating striatal dysfunction and sensitivity to perceptual and cognitive prediction errors in the insula node of the salience network and postulate that dysregulated dopamine modulation of salience network-centered processes contributes to the core clinical phenotype of schizophrenia. Thus, a powerful paradigm to characterize the neurobiology of schizophrenia emerges when we combine conceptual models of salience with large-scale cognitive control networks in a unified manner. We conclude by discussing potential therapeutic leads on restoring brain network dysfunction in schizophrenia.

Computational mechanisms of belief updating in relation to psychotic-like experiences

Introduction

Psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) may occur due to changes in weighting prior beliefs and new evidence in the belief updating process. It is still unclear whether the acquisition or integration of stable beliefs is altered, and whether such alteration depends on the level of environmental and belief precision, which reflects the associated uncertainty. This motivated us to investigate uncertainty-related dynamics of belief updating in relation to PLEs using an online study design.

Methods

We selected a sample (n = 300) of participants who performed a belief updating task with sudden change points and provided self-report questionnaires for PLEs. The task required participants to observe bags dropping from a hidden helicopter, infer its position, and dynamically update their belief about the helicopter's position. Participants could optimize performance by adjusting learning rates according to inferred belief uncertainty (inverse prior precision) and the probability of environmental change points. We used a normative learning model to examine the relationship between adherence to specific model parameters and PLEs.

Results

PLEs were linked to lower accuracy in tracking the outcome (helicopter location) (β = 0.26 ± 0.11, p = 0.018) and to a smaller increase of belief precision across observations after a change point (β = -0.003 ± 0.0007, p < 0.001). PLEs were related to slower belief updating when participants encountered large prediction errors (β = -0.03 ± 0.009, p = 0.001). Computational modeling suggested that PLEs were associated with reduced overall belief updating in response to prediction errors (βPE = -1.00 ± 0.45, p = 0.028) and reduced modulation of updating at inferred environmental change points (βCPP = -0.84 ± 0.38, p = 0.023).

Discussion

We conclude that PLEs are associated with altered dynamics of belief updating. These findings support the idea that the process of balancing prior belief and new evidence, as a function of environmental uncertainty, is altered in PLEs, which may contribute to the development of delusions. Specifically, slower learning after large prediction errors in people with high PLEs may result in rigid beliefs. Disregarding environmental change points may limit the flexibility to establish new beliefs in the face of contradictory evidence. The present study fosters a deeper understanding of inferential belief updating mechanisms underlying PLEs.

Transdiagnostic computations of uncertainty: towards a new lens on intolerance of uncertainty

People radically differ in how they cope with uncertainty. Clinical researchers describe a dispositional characteristic known as "intolerance of uncertainty", a tendency to find uncertainty aversive, reported to be elevated across psychiatric and neurodevelopmental conditions. Concurrently, recent research in computational psychiatry has leveraged theoretical work to characterise individual differences in uncertainty processing. Under this framework, differences in how people estimate different forms of uncertainty can contribute to mental health difficulties. In this review, we briefly outline the concept of intolerance of uncertainty within its clinical context, and we argue that the mechanisms underlying this construct may be further elucidated through modelling how individuals make inferences about uncertainty. We will review the evidence linking psychopathology to different computationally specified forms of uncertainty and consider how these findings might suggest distinct mechanistic routes towards intolerance of uncertainty. We also discuss the implications of this computational approach for behavioural and pharmacological interventions, as well as the importance of different cognitive domains and subjective experiences in studying uncertainty processing.

Spatiotemporal Precision of Neuroimaging in Psychiatry

Aberrant patterns of cognition, perception, and behavior seen in psychiatric disorders are thought to be driven by a complex interplay of neural processes that evolve at a rapid temporal scale. Understanding these dynamic processes in vivo in humans has been hampered by a trade-off between spatial and temporal resolutions inherent to current neuroimaging technology. A recent trend in psychiatric research has been the use of high temporal resolution imaging, particularly magnetoencephalography, often in conjunction with sophisticated machine learning decoding techniques. Developments here promise novel insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of cognitive phenomena, including domains relevant to psychiatric illnesses such as reward and avoidance learning, memory, and planning. This review considers recent advances afforded by exploiting this increased spatiotemporal precision, with specific reference to applications that seek to drive a mechanistic understanding of psychopathology and the realization of preclinical translation.

Belief updating in psychosis, depression and anxiety disorders: A systematic review across computational modelling approaches

Alterations in belief updating are proposed to underpin symptoms of psychiatric illness, including psychosis, depression, and anxiety. Key parameters underlying belief updating can be captured using computational modelling techniques, aiding the identification of unique and shared deficits, and improving diagnosis and treatment. We systematically reviewed research that applied computational modelling to probabilistic tasks measuring belief updating in stable and volatile (changing) environments, across clinical and subclinical psychosis (n = 17), anxiety (n = 9), depression (n = 9) and transdiagnostic samples (n = 9). Depression disorders related to abnormal belief updating in response to the valence of rewards, evidenced in both stable and volatile environments. Whereas psychosis and anxiety disorders were associated with difficulties adapting to changing contingencies specifically, indicating an inflexibility and/or insensitivity to environmental volatility. Higher-order learning models revealed additional difficulties in the estimation of overall environmental volatility across psychosis disorders, showing increased updating to irrelevant information. These findings stress the importance of investigating belief updating in transdiagnostic samples, using homogeneous experimental and computational modelling approaches.

Interactions between the cortical midline structures and sensorimotor network track maladaptive self-beliefs in clinical high risk for psychosis

Individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR) report a maladaptive self-concept—with more negative and less positive self-beliefs—linked to clinical symptoms and functional impairment. Alterations have also been reported in brain networks associated with intrinsic (cortical midline structures, CMS) and extrinsic (sensorimotor network, SMN) self-processing. Theoretical accounts of multiple levels of self-experience in schizophrenia suggest that interactions between these networks would be relevant for self-beliefs. This study tested whether self-beliefs related to resting-state functional connectivity within and between the CMS and SMN. Participants were 56 individuals meeting CHR criteria and 59 matched healthy community participants (HC). Pearson correlations examined potential mediators and outcomes. The CHR group reported more negative and less positive self-beliefs. Greater resting-state functional connectivity between the posterior CMS (posterior cingulate cortex) and the SMN was associated with less positive self-beliefs in CHR, but more positive self-beliefs in HC. Attenuated negative symptoms and poorer social functioning were associated with CMS-SMN connectivity (trend level after FDR-correction) and self-beliefs. Reduced connectivity between the left and right PCC was associated with lower positive self-beliefs in CHR, although this effect was specific to very low levels of positive self-beliefs. Left-right PCC connectivity did not correlate with outcomes. Dynamic interactions between intrinsic and extrinsic self-processing supported positive self-beliefs in typically developing youth while undermining positive self-beliefs in CHR youth. Implications are discussed for basic self-fragmentation, narrative self-related metacognition, and global belief updating. Interventions for self-processing may be beneficial in the CHR syndrome.