Spatial Pattern of the Seasonal Drought/Burned Area Relationship across Brazilian Biomes: Sensitivity to Drought Metrics and Global Remote-Sensing Fire Products

Drought-heatwave nexus in Brazil and related impacts on health and fires: A comprehensive review

Climate change is drastically altering the frequency, duration, and severity of compound drought-heatwave (CDHW) episodes, which present a new challenge in environmental and socioeconomic sectors. These threats are of particular importance in low-income regions with growing populations, fragile infrastructure, and threatened ecosystems. This review synthesizes emerging progress in the understanding of CDHW patterns in Brazil while providing insights about the impacts on fire occurrence and public health. Evidence is mounting that heatwaves are becoming increasingly linked with droughts in northeastern and southeastern Brazil, the Amazonia, and the Pantanal. In those regions, recent studies have begun to build a better understanding of the physical mechanisms behind CDHW events, such as the soil moisture-atmosphere coupling, promoted by exceptional atmospheric blocking conditions. Results hint at a synergy between CDHW events and high fire activity in the country over the last decades, with the most recent example being the catastrophic 2020 fires in the Pantanal. Moreover, we show that HWs were responsible for increasing mortality and preterm births during record-breaking droughts in southeastern Brazil. This work paves the way for a more in-depth understanding on CDHW events and their impacts, which is crucial to enhance the adaptive capacity of different Brazilian sectors.

Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest

Tipping elements are nonlinear subsystems of the Earth system that have the potential to abruptly shift to another state if environmental change occurs close to a critical threshold with large consequences for human societies and ecosystems. Among these tipping elements may be the Amazon rainforest, which has been undergoing intensive anthropogenic activities and increasingly frequent droughts. Here, we assess how extreme deviations from climatological rainfall regimes may cause local forest collapse that cascades through the coupled forest-climate system. We develop a conceptual dynamic network model to isolate and uncover the role of atmospheric moisture recycling in such tipping cascades. We account for heterogeneity in critical thresholds of the forest caused by adaptation to local climatic conditions. Our results reveal that, despite this adaptation, a future climate characterized by permanent drought conditions could trigger a transition to an open canopy state particularly in the southern Amazon. The loss of atmospheric moisture recycling contributes to one-third of the tipping events. Thus, by exceeding local thresholds in forest adaptive capacity, local climate change impacts may propagate to other regions of the Amazon basin, causing a risk of forest shifts even in regions where critical thresholds have not been crossed locally.

Long-Term Landsat-Based Monthly Burned Area Dataset for the Brazilian Biomes Using Deep Learning

Fire is a significant agent of landscape transformation on Earth, and a dynamic and ephemeral process that is challenging to map. Difficulties include the seasonality of native vegetation in areas affected by fire, the high levels of spectral heterogeneity due to the spatial and temporal variability of the burned areas, distinct persistence of the fire signal, increase in cloud and smoke cover surrounding burned areas, and difficulty in detecting understory fire signals. To produce a large-scale time-series of burned area, a robust number of observations and a more efficient sampling strategy is needed. In order to overcome these challenges, we used a novel strategy based on a machine-learning algorithm to map monthly burned areas from 1985 to 2020 using Landsat-based annual quality mosaics retrieved from minimum NBR values. The annual mosaics integrated year-round observations of burned and unburned spectral data (i.e., RED, NIR, SWIR-1, and SWIR-2), and used them to train a Deep Neural Network model, which resulted in annual maps of areas burned by land use type for all six Brazilian biomes. The annual dataset was used to retrieve the frequency of the burned area, while the date on which the minimum NBR was captured in a year, was used to reconstruct 36 years of monthly burned area. Results of this effort indicated that 19.6% (1.6 million km2) of the Brazilian territory was burned from 1985 to 2020, with 61% of this area burned at least once. Most of the burning (83%) occurred between July and October. The Amazon and Cerrado, together, accounted for 85% of the area burned at least once in Brazil. Native vegetation was the land cover most affected by fire, representing 65% of the burned area, while the remaining 35% burned in areas dominated by anthropogenic land uses, mainly pasture. This novel dataset is crucial for understanding the spatial and long-term temporal dynamics of fire regimes that are fundamental for designing appropriate public policies for reducing and controlling fires in Brazil.

Putting fire on the map of Brazilian savanna ecoregions

The Brazilian savanna (Cerrado) is considered the most floristically diverse savanna in the world, home to more than seven thousand species. The region is a mosaic of savannas, grasslands and forests whose unique biophysical and landscape attributes are on the basis of a recent ecoregional map, paving the way to improved region-based strategies for land management actions. However, as a fire-prone ecosystem, Cerrado owes much of its distribution and ecological properties to the fire regime and contributes to an important parcel of South America burned area. Accordingly, any attempt to use ecoregion geography as a guide for management strategies should take fire into account, as an essential variable. The main aim of this study is to complement the ecoregional map of the Cerrado with information related to the fire component. Using remotely sensed information, we identify patterns and trends of fire frequency, intensity, seasonality, extent and scar size, and combine this information for each ecoregion, relying on a simple classification that summarizes the main fire characteristics over the last two decades. Results show a marked north-south fire activity gradient, with increased contributions from MATOPIBA, the latest agricultural frontier. Five ecoregions alone account for two thirds of yearly burned area. More intense fires are found in the Arc of Deforestation and eastern ecoregions, while ecoregions in MATOPIBA display decreasing fire intensity. An innovative analysis of fire scars stratified by size class shows that infrequent large fires are responsible for the majority of burned area. These large fires display positive trends over many ecoregions, whereas smaller fires, albeit more frequent, have been decreasing in number. The final fire classification scheme shows well defined spatially-aggregated groups, where trends are found to be the key factor to evaluate fire within their regional contexts. Results presented here provide new insights to improve fire management strategies under a changing climate.

Burned Area Mapping over the Southern Cape Forestry Region, South Africa Using Sentinel Data within GEE Cloud Platform

Planted forests in South Africa have been affected by an increasing number of economically damaging fires over the past four decades. They constitute a major threat to the forestry industry and account for over 80% of the country’s commercial timber losses. Forest fires are more frequent and severe during the drier drought conditions that are typical in South Africa. For proper forest management, accurate detection and mapping of burned areas are required, yet the exercise is difficult to perform in the field because of time and expense. Now that ready-to-use satellite data are freely accessible in the cloud-based Google Earth Engine (GEE), in this study, we exploit the Sentinel-2-derived differenced normalized burned ratio (dNBR) to characterize burn severity areas, and also track carbon monoxide (CO) plumes using Sentinel-5 following a wildfire that broke over the southeastern coast of the Western Cape province in late October 2018. The results showed that 37.4% of the area was severely burned, and much of it occurred in forested land in the studied area. This was followed by 24.7% of the area that was burned at a moderate-high level. About 15.9% had moderate-low burned severity, whereas 21.9% was slightly burned. Random forests classifier was adopted to separate burned class from unburned and achieved an overall accuracy of over 97%. The most important variables in the classification included texture, NBR, and the NIR bands. The CO signal sharply increased during fire outbreaks and marked the intensity of black carbon over the affected area. Our study contributes to the understanding of forest fire in the dynamics over the Southern Cape forestry landscape. Furthermore, it also demonstrates the usefulness of Sentinel-5 for monitoring CO. Taken together, the Sentinel satellites and GEE offer an effective tool for mapping fires, even in data-poor countries.

Long-Term Spatiotemporal Variation of Droughts in the Amazon River Basin

The Amazon River Basin (ARB) plays an important role in the hydrological cycle at the regional and global scales. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the incidence and severity of droughts could increase in this basin due to human-induced climate change. Therefore, the assessment of the impacts of extreme droughts in the ARB is of vital importance to develop appropriate drought mitigation strategies. The purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive characterization of dry spells and extreme drought events in terms of occurrence, persistence, spatial extent, severity, and impacts on streamflow and vegetation in the ARB during the period 1901–2018. The Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at multiple time scales (i.e., 3, 6, and 12 months) was used as a drought index. A weak basin-wide drying trend was observed, but there was no evidence of a trend in extreme drought events in terms of spatial coverage, intensity, and duration for the period 1901–2018. Nevertheless, a progressive transition to drier-than-normal conditions was evident since the 1970s, coinciding with different patterns of coupling between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) as well as an increasing incidence of higher-than-normal surface air temperatures over the basin. Furthermore, a high recurrence of short-term drought events with high level of exposure to long-term drought conditions on the sub-basins Ucayali, Japurá-Caquetá, Jari, Jutaí, Marañón, and Xingu was observed in recent years. These results could be useful to guide social, economic, and water resource policy decision-making processes in the Amazon basin countries.

Drought in Portugal: Current regime, comparison of indices and impacts on extreme wildfires

In Portugal, drought characterizes the climatic variability, contributes to the increase of fire risk and its duration and intensity are expected to increase in future climate. Surprisingly, the quantitative and objective analysis to characterize the drought regime in current climate conditions as well as its influence on the occurrence of large wildfires (LW) has never been done for Portugal, which are the main objectives of this study. We assessed drought regime for recent past climate conditions (1981-2017), using four different drought indices, namely SPI, SPEI, RDI and VCI, and assessed the influence of drought in LW occurrence. Results include the characterization of drought number, duration, severity, intensity, extension, intra- and inter-annual variability for different classes of severity and the space-time distribution of LW in drought periods and affected area. Our main findings include 67% of the study period were drought months; regions with higher drought duration and severity assessed with SPI and SPEI for general drought conditions evolves from north to south with the increase of drought assessment period; drought characteristics present low intra - annual and inter - annual variability but are clearly associated to the temporal and spatial distribution of LW. In fact, all LW occurred during drought assessed with SPI or SPEI, almost all LW (97% to 95%) and corresponding burnt area (98% to 97%) occurred during drought assessed with SPI and SPEI. The relationship between drought and fire incidence is statistical significant for 3 - month SPI, 3 - and 6 - month SPEI, and is particularly strong for Moderate and Severe drought. 85% and 87% of LW occurred in area affected by drought assessed with SPI or SPEI, respectively. It is not clear which is the best index, but drought plays a fundamental role in the occurrence of large wildfires in Portugal.

Characterization and Trends of Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Fire Emissions in the Brazilian Cerrado during 2002–2017

Fire occurrence is a major disturbance in the Brazilian Cerrado, which is driven by both natural and anthropogenic activities. Despite increasing efforts for monitoring the Cerrado, a biome-scale study for quantifying and understanding the variability of fire emissions is still needed. We aimed at characterizing and finding trends in Particulate Matter with diameter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) fire emissions in the Brazilian Cerrado using the PREP-CHEM-SRC emissions preprocessing tool and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) active fires datasets for the 2002–2017 period. Our results showed that, on average, the Cerrado emitted 1.08 Tg year−1 of PM2.5 associated with fires, accounting for 25% and 15% of the PM2.5 fire emissions in Brazil and South America, respectively. Most of the PM2.5 fire emissions were concentrated in the end of the dry season (August, 0.224 Tg month−1 and September, 0.386 Tg month−1) and in the transitional month (October, 0.210 Tg month−1). Annually, 66% of the total emissions occurred over the savanna land cover; however, active fires that were detected in the evergreen broadleaf land cover tended to emit more than active fires occurring in the savanna land cover. Spatially, each 0.1° grid cell emitted, on average, 0.5 Mg km−2 year−1 of PM2.5 associated with fires, but the values can reach to 16.6 Mg km−2 year−1 in a single cell. Higher estimates of PM2.5 emissions associated with fires were mostly concentrated in the northern region, which is the current agricultural expansion frontier in this biome. When considering the entire Cerrado, we found an annual decreasing trend representing -1.78% of the annual average PM2.5 emitted from fires during the period analyzed, however, the grid cell analysis found annual trends representing ± 35% of the annual average PM2.5 fire emissions.

Modeling the Influence of Eucalypt Plantation on Wildfire Occurrence in the Brazilian Savanna Biome

In the last decades, eucalypt plantations are expanding across the Brazilian savanna, one of the most frequently burned ecosystems in the world. Wildfires are one of the main threats to forest plantations, causing economic and environmental loss. Modeling wildfire occurrence provides a better understanding of the processes that drive fire activity. Furthermore, the use of spatially explicit models may promote more effective management strategies and support fire prevention policies. In this work, we assessed wildfire occurrence combining Random Forest (RF) algorithms and cluster analysis to predict and detect changes in the spatial pattern of ignition probability over time. The model was trained using several explanatory drivers related to fire ignition: accessibility, proximity to agricultural lands or human activities, among others. Specifically, we introduced the progression of eucalypt plantations on a two-year basis to capture the influence of land cover changes over fire likelihood consistently. Fire occurrences in the period 2010–2016 were retrieved from the Brazilian Institute of Space Research (INPE) database. In terms of the AUC (area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve), the model denoted fairly good predictive accuracy (AUC ≈ 0.72). Results suggested that fire occurrence was mainly linked to proximity agricultural and to urban interfaces. Eucalypt plantation contributed to increased wildfire likelihood and denoted fairly high importance as an explanatory variable (17% increase of Mean Square Error [MSE]). Nevertheless, agriculture and urban interfaces proved to be the main drivers, contributing to decreasing the RF’s MSE in 42% and 38%, respectively. Furthermore, eucalypt plantations expansion is progressing over clusters of high wildfire likelihood, thus increasing the exposure to wildfire events for young eucalypt plantations and nearby areas. Protective measures should be focus on in the mapped Hot Spot zones in order to mitigate the exposure to fire events and to contribute for an efficient initial suppression rather than costly firefighting.

Spatiotemporal Patterns and Phenology of Tropical Vegetation Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence across Brazilian Biomes Using Satellite Observations

Solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) has been empirically linked to gross primary productivity (GPP) in multiple ecosystems and is thus a promising tool to address the current uncertainties in carbon fluxes at ecosystem to continental scales. However, studies utilizing satellite-measured SIF in South America have concentrated on the Amazonian tropical forest, while SIF in other regions and vegetation classes remain uninvestigated. We examined three years of Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) SIF data for vegetation classes within and across the six Brazilian biomes (Amazon, Atlantic Forest, Caatinga, Cerrado, Pampa, and Pantanal) to answer the following: (1) how does satellite-measured SIF differ? (2) What is the relationship (strength and direction) of satellite-measured SIF with canopy temperature (Tcan), air temperature (Tair), and vapor pressure deficit (VPD)? (3) How does the phenology of satellite-measured SIF (duration and amplitude of seasonal integrated SIF) compare? Our analysis shows that OCO-2 captures a significantly higher mean SIF with lower variability in the Amazon and lower mean SIF with higher variability in the Caatinga compared to other biomes. OCO-2 also distinguishes the mean SIF of vegetation types within biomes, showing that evergreen broadleaf (EBF) mean SIF is significantly higher than other vegetation classes (deciduous broadleaf (DBF), grassland (GRA), savannas (SAV), and woody savannas (WSAV)) in all biomes. We show that the strengths and directions of correlations of OCO-2 mean SIF to Tcan, Tair, and VPD largely cluster by biome: negative in the Caatinga and Cerrado, positive in the Pampa, and no correlations were found in the Pantanal, while results were mixed for the Amazon and Atlantic Forest. We found mean SIF most strongly correlated with VPD in most vegetation classes in most biomes, followed by Tcan. Seasonality from time series analysis reveals that OCO-2 SIF measurements capture important differences in the seasonal timing of SIF for different classes, details masked when only examining mean SIF differences. We found that OCO-2 captured the highest base integrated SIF and lowest seasonal pulse integrated SIF in the Amazon for all vegetation classes, indicating continuous photosynthetic activity in the Amazon exceeds other biomes, but with small seasonal increases. Surprisingly, Pantanal EBF SIF had the highest total integrated SIF of all classes in all biomes due to a large seasonal pulse. Additionally, the length of seasons only accounts for about 30% of variability in total integrated SIF; thus, integrated SIF is likely captures differences in photosynthetic activity separate from structural differences. Our results show that satellite measurements of SIF can distinguish important functioning and phenological differences in vegetation classes and thus has the potential to improve our understanding of productivity and seasonality in the tropics.