Mortality and Recovery of Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Adelges tsugae) in Response to Winter Temperatures and Predictions for the Future

Climate change effect on the widely distributed Palearctic plant bug species (Insecta: Heteroptera: Miridae)

Insects are poikilothermic organisms and temperature increase usually accelerates their development rates, population and distribution area growth. Therefore, it is assumed that global warming can be beneficial for the pests and other widespread species at least in the relatively cool temperate zones. However, climate change's effect on the widespread species in the Palearctic remains poorly studied. This work was performed on three plant bug species (Insecta: Heteroptera: Miridae), at present inhabiting Europe and Asia. Liocoris tripustulatus is known from the Western Palearctic, Lygocoris pabulinus occupies the territories from Western Europe to South Asia, Lygus punctatus is distributed from Northern Europe to the Far East. In this paper, it is tested whether temperature rise is positively connected with the area of preferred climatic conditions for those species, and explores the particular climatic variables which can be limiting for the distribution of those species. Maxent software was used for the environmental niche modeling and to find the variables with significant contribution to the climatic models for the studied species. Based on those models, areas with preferred climatic conditions over different periods were calculated in QGIS. Principal component analysis and logistic regression were performed to find the variables highly contributing to the differences between the species. The results contradict the assumption that temperature growth alone can be a predictor for the widespread species and pest distribution range change. All species differ in suitable climatic conditions and their area dynamics in time, and the temperature affects each species differently. Only Liocoris tripustulatus might significantly expand its distribution area by 2070 due to the climate change. The areas in Asia and above the polar circle will be more suitable by that time for all three species than now. However, conditions in Europe might be less suitable for Lygocoris pabulinus and Lygus punctatus in the future. Both, temperature and precipitation variables, can be important for shaping distribution of Liocoris tripustulatus and Lygocoris pabulinus. Mean annual temperature and temperature in winter, most probably, limit the distribution of at least Liocoris tripsutulatus and Lygus punctatus, but changes in this variable affect those two species differently.

Effect of a severe cold spell on overwintering survival of an invasive forest insect pest

Cold temperatures can play a significant role in the range and impact of pest insects. Severe cold events can reduce the size of insect outbreaks and perhaps even cause outbreaks to end. Measuring the precise impact of cold events, however, can be difficult because estimates of insect mortality are often made at the end of the winter season. In late January 2023 long-term climate models predicted a significant cold event to occur over eastern North America. We used this event to evaluate the immediate impact on hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand) overwintering mortality at four sites on the northern edge of the insects invaded range in eastern North America. We observed complete mortality, partial mortality and no effects on hemlock woolly adelgid mortality that correlated with the location of populations and strength of the cold event. Our data showed support for preconditioning of overwintering adelgids having an impact on their overwintering survival following this severe cold event. Finally, we compared the climatic conditions at our sites to historical weather data and previous observations of mortality in Nova Scotia. The cold event observed in February 2023 resulted in the coldest temperatures observed at these sites, including the period within which hemlock woolly adelgid invaded, suggesting cold conditions, especially under anthropogenic climate forcing, may not be a limiting factor in determining the ultimate northern range of hemlock woolly adelgid in eastern North America.

Temperature-dependent Development, Survival, and Oviposition of Laricobius osakensis (Coleoptera: Derodontidae): A Specialist Predator of Adelges tsugae (Hemiptera: Adelgidae)

A predator, Laricobius osakensis Montgomery and Shiyake (Coleoptera: Derodontidae), is being mass-produced and released for the biological control of the invasive hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA), Adelges tsugae Annand (Hemiptera: Adelgidae). To better understand and predict the seasonality of this predator in North America, the development and reproduction of L. osakensis were evaluated at constant temperatures ranging from 5 to 22°C. The predicted seasonal biology was compared with data from field collections. L. osakensis did not complete development from egg to adult at the two lowest temperatures tested, 5 and 8°C, but did so at the highest temperature of 22°C. The minimum development thresholds were estimated for eggs (4.2°C), first (1.8°C), second (5.5°C), third (4.6°C), and fourth instar (4.1°C), prepupa (3.6°C), and pupa (7.5°C). Oviposition rates were significantly greater at 5 and 10°C than at 20 and 25°C. Head capsule width significantly increased for each of the four larval instars with a mean of 0.19, 0.26, 0.35, and 0.44 mm, respectively. Laboratory and field data were used to develop a phenology forecasting model to predict the occurrence of all developmental stages of L. osakensis. This model will allow land managers to more accurately predict the optimal timing for L. osakensis larval sampling throughout its established range.

Managing for the unexpected: Building resilient forest landscapes to cope with global change

Natural disturbances exacerbated by novel climate regimes are increasing worldwide, threatening the ability of forest ecosystems to mitigate global warming through carbon sequestration and to provide other key ecosystem services. One way to cope with unknown disturbance events is to promote the ecological resilience of the forest by increasing both functional trait and structural diversity and by fostering functional connectivity of the landscape to ensure a rapid and efficient self-reorganization of the system. We investigated how expected and unexpected variations in climate and biotic disturbances affect ecological resilience and carbon storage in a forested region in southeastern Canada. Using a process-based forest landscape model (LANDIS-II), we simulated ecosystem responses to climate change and insect outbreaks under different forest policy scenarios-including a novel approach based on functional diversification and network analysis-and tested how the potentially most damaging insect pests interact with changes in forest composition and structure due to changing climate and management. We found that climate warming, lengthening the vegetation season, will increase forest productivity and carbon storage, but unexpected impacts of drought and insect outbreaks will drastically reduce such variables. Generalist, non-native insects feeding on hardwood are the most damaging biotic agents for our region, and their monitoring and early detection should be a priority for forest authorities. Higher forest diversity driven by climate-smart management and fostered by climate change that promotes warm-adapted species, might increase disturbance severity. However, alternative forest policy scenarios led to a higher functional and structural diversity as well as functional connectivity-and thus to higher ecological resilience-than conventional management. Our results demonstrate that adopting a landscape-scale perspective by planning interventions strategically in space and adopting a functional trait approach to diversify forests is promising for enhancing ecological resilience under unexpected global change stressors.

High Rainfall May Induce Fungal Attack of Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Hemiptera: Adelgidae) Leading to Regional Decline

Hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA; Adelges tsugae Annand (Hemiptera: Adelgidae)) is the cause of widespread mortality of Carolina and eastern hemlock (Tsuga caroliniana Engelmann and T. canadensis (L.) Carrière) throughout the eastern United States (U.S.). Since its arrival in the northeastern U.S., HWA has steadily invaded and established throughout eastern hemlock stands. However, in 2018, anecdotal evidence suggested a sharp, widespread HWA decline in the northeastern U.S. following above-average summer and autumn rainfall. To quantify this decline in HWA density and investigate its cause, we surveyed HWA density in hemlock stands from northern Massachusetts to southern Connecticut and analyzed HWA density and summer mortality in Pennsylvania. As native fungal entomopathogens are known to infect HWA in the northeastern U.S. and rainfall facilitates propagation and spread of fungi, we hypothesized high rainfall facilitates fungal infection of aestivating nymphs, leading to a decline in HWA density. We tested this hypothesis by applying a rain-simulation treatment to hemlock branches with existing HWA infestations in western MA. Our results indicate a regional-scale decline and subsequent rebound in HWA density that correlates with 2018 rainfall at each site. Experimental rain treatments resulted in higher proportions of aestivating nymphs with signs of mortality compared to controls. In conjunction with no evidence of increased mortality from extreme winter or summer temperatures, our results demonstrate an indirect relationship between high rainfall and regional HWA decline. This knowledge may lead to better prediction of HWA population dynamics.

Seasonal Assessment of Supercooling Points for Two Introduced and One Native Laricobius spp. (Coleoptera: Derodontidae), Predators of Adelgidae

The hemlock woolly adelgid, Adelges tsugae Annand, is an invasive insect that threatens hemlock species in eastern North America. Several species from the genus Laricobius are predators of A. tsugae in its native areas of Asia and the western United States. Two Laricobius species have been released as biological control agents: Laricobius nigrinus Fender, and Laricobius osakensis Montgomery and Shiyake. Laricobius rubidus LeConte is an adelgid predator native to the Eastern United States, where it can feed and complete development on A. tsugae opportunistically. Laboratory assays were conducted to assess the cold hardiness of these three Laricobius species, including two distinct populations of L. osakensis, by measuring the supercooling points of each species from November 2016 through March 2017. This information may be useful for choosing the best-suited biological control agent for a particular region to control A. tsugae. There was a significant difference between the overall mean supercooling point of L. rubidus compared to the other Laricobius spp. There were also significant differences of supercooling points between L. rubidus and both strains of L. osakensis in January, and significant differences between L. rubidus and all other strains in February. L. rubidus appear better adapted to cold extremes in the eastern U.S. than imported Laricobius spp.

Interacting Effects of Global Change on Forest Pest and Pathogen Dynamics

Pathogens and insect pests are important drivers of tree mortality and forest dynamics, but global change has rapidly altered or intensified their impacts. Predictive understanding of changing disease and outbreak occurrence has been limited by two factors: ( a) tree mortality and morbidity are emergent phenomena determined by interactions between plant hosts, biotic agents (insects or pathogens), and the environment; and ( b) disparate global change drivers co-occur, obscuring net impacts on each of these components. To expand our understanding of changing forest diseases, declines, and outbreaks, we adopt a framework that identifies and organizes observed impacts of diverse global change drivers on the primary mechanisms underlying agent virulence and host susceptibility. We then discuss insights from ecological theory that may advance prediction of forest epidemics and outbreaks. This approach highlights key drivers of changing pest and pathogen dynamics, which may inform forest management aimed at mitigating accelerating rates of tree mortality globally.

Drought-Affected Populus simonii Carr. Show Lower Growth and Long-Term Increases in Intrinsic Water-Use Efficiency Prior to Tree Mortality

The Three-North Shelter Forest (TNSF) is a critical ecological barrier against sandstorms in northern China, but has shown extensive decline and death in Populus simonii Carr. in the last decade. We investigated the characteristics—tree-ring width, basal area increment (BAI), carbon isotope signature (13Ccor), and intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE)—of now-dead, dieback, and non-dieback trees in TNSF shelterbelts of Zhangbei County. Results from the three groups were compared to understand the long-term process of preceding drought-induced death and to identify potential early-warning proxies of drought-triggered damage. The diameter at breast height (DBH) was found to decrease with the severity of dieback, showing an inverse relationship. In all three groups, both tree-ring width and BAI showed quadratic relationships with age, and peaks earlier in the now-dead and dieback groups than in the non-dieback group. The tree-ring width and BAI became significantly lower in the now-dead and dieback groups than in the non-dieback group from 17 to 26 years before death, thus, these parameters can serve as early-warning signals for future drought-induced death. The now-dead and dieback groups had significantly higher δ13Ccor and iWUEs than the non-dieback group at 7–16 years prior to the mortality, indicating a more conservative water-use strategy under drought stress compared with non-dieback trees, possibly at the cost of canopy defoliation and long-term shoot dieback. The iWUE became significantly higher in the now-dead group than in the dieback group at 0–7 years before death, about 10 years later than the divergence of BAI. After the iWUE became significantly different among the groups, the now-dead trees showed lower growth and died over the next few years. This indicates that, for the TNSF shelterbelts studied, an abrupt iWUE increase can be used as a warning signal for acceleration of impending drought-induced tree death. In general, we found that long-term drought decreased growth and increased iWUE of poplar tree. Successive droughts could drive dieback and now-dead trees to their physiological limits of drought tolerance, potentially leading to decline and mortality episodes.

First Report on Establishment of Laricobius osakensis (Coleoptera: Derodontidae), a Biological Control Agent for Hemlock Woolly Adelgid, Adelges tsugae (Hemiptera: Adelgidae), in the Eastern U.S

The hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA) is an invasive insect species native to Japan causing significant hemlock mortality in the eastern United States. Laricobius spp. have been targeted as biological control agents because they are adelgid specialists. Laricobius osakensis Montgomery and Shiyake is native to the same region of Japan from which the strain of HWA found in the eastern United States originated. Studies in Japan found that it is phenologically synchronous with HWA. Following approval to release L. osakensis from quarantine in 2010, approximately 32,000 were released at a total of 61 sites starting in 2012. In winter of 2014 and 2015, periods of extreme cold temperatures throughout the eastern USA, as well as the polar vortex, resulted in extensive mortality to HWA, which likely delayed the establishment of L. osakensis. The ability of the beetle to survive and establish in the eastern United States is reported here. In the first year of this study (2015–2016), limited numbers of L. osakensis were recovered, as HWA populations were still rebounding. In the second year (2016–2017), 147 L. osakensis were collected at 5 of 9 sites sampled, coinciding with rebounding HWA populations. Larval recovery was much greater than adult recovery throughout the study. HWA density was directly correlated with warmer plant hardiness zones and recovery of Laricobius beetles was significantly correlated with HWA density. Our results suggest that L. osakensis is successfully establishing at several of the sampled release sites and that the best predictor of its presence at a site is the HWA density.