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Wu Z, Cha S, Wang C, Qu T, Zou Z. Salmon Consumption Behavior Prediction Based on Bayesian Optimization and Explainable Artificial Intelligence. Foods 2025; 14:429. [PMID: 39942022 PMCID: PMC11817250 DOI: 10.3390/foods14030429] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2024] [Revised: 01/26/2025] [Accepted: 01/27/2025] [Indexed: 02/16/2025] Open
Abstract
Predicting seafood consumption behavior is essential for fishing companies to adjust their production plans and marketing strategies. To achieve accurate predictions, this paper introduces a model for forecasting seafood consumption behavior based on an interpretable machine learning algorithm. Additionally, the Shapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) model and the Accumulated Local Effects (ALE) plot were integrated to provide a detailed analysis of the factors influencing Shanghai residents' intentions to purchase salmon. In this study, we constructed nine regression prediction models, including ANN, Decision Tree, GBDT, Random Forest, AdaBoost, XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost, and NGBoost, to predict the consumers' intentions to purchase salmon and to compare their predictive performance. In addition, Bayesian optimization algorithm is used to optimize the hyperparameters of the optimal regression prediction model to improve the model prediction accuracy. Finally, the SHAP model was used to analyze the key factors and interactions affecting the consumers' willingness to purchase salmon, and the Accumulated Local Effects plot was used to show the specific prediction patterns of different influences on salmon consumption. The results of the study show that salmon farming safety and ease of cooking have significant nonlinear effects on salmon consumption; the BO-CatBoost nonlinear regression prediction model demonstrates superior performance compared to the benchmark model, with the test set exhibiting RMSE, MSE, MAE, R2 and TIC values of 0.155, 0.024, 0.097, 0.902, and 0.313, respectively. This study can provide technical support for suppliers in the salmon value chain and help their decision-making to adjust their corporate production plan and marketing activities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhan Wu
- School of Economics and Management, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;
| | - Sina Cha
- School of Business, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China;
| | - Chunxiao Wang
- School of Economics and Management, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;
| | - Tinghong Qu
- School of Economics and Management, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;
| | - Zongfeng Zou
- School of Management, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China;
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Xu H, Wu T, Budhathoki M, Fang DS, Zhang W, Wang X. Consumption Patterns and Willingness to Pay for Sustainable Aquatic Food in China. Foods 2024; 13:2435. [PMID: 39123626 PMCID: PMC11312269 DOI: 10.3390/foods13152435] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2024] [Revised: 07/28/2024] [Accepted: 07/28/2024] [Indexed: 08/12/2024] Open
Abstract
China, as the world's largest producer, trader, and consumer of aquatic foods, lacks comprehensive research on consumption patterns and willingness to pay for sustainable aquatic food. This study addressed this gap through an online survey of 3403 participants across Chinese provinces. A majority of consumers (34.7% of the participants) consume aquatic food twice or more per week, mainly from traditional markets (26%). Most prefer fresh or live products (76%), with 42% seeing no difference between farmed and wild options. Consumption is higher among older, affluent, urban, and coastal residents. Crustaceans, especially shrimp, are frequently consumed species, with growing interest in luxury species like salmon and abalone. Taste and quality emerge as the primary factors motivating consumer choices in aquatic food purchases. Food safety is the primary concern, followed by environmental impact. Notably, 92.4% of participants would pay extra for certified products. Factors influencing a higher willingness to pay include higher income, inland residence, price sensitivity, origin consciousness, and concerns about food safety and the environment. The findings highlight that China's aquatic food industry and consumption can become more sustainable by aligning with consumer preferences for high-quality and diverse aquatic food through both production and import, while also addressing concerns related to food safety and environmental impact. This research provides valuable insights into China's rapidly transforming aquatic food market landscape, offering implications for industry innovation and the promotion of sustainable consumption patterns.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao Xu
- China-ASEAN “The Belt and Road” Joint Laboratory of Mariculture Technology, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China; (H.X.); (T.W.)
- Centre for Research on Environmental Ecology and Fish Nutrition of the Ministry of Agriculture, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
- Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Aquaculture, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
| | - Tianqi Wu
- China-ASEAN “The Belt and Road” Joint Laboratory of Mariculture Technology, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China; (H.X.); (T.W.)
- Centre for Research on Environmental Ecology and Fish Nutrition of the Ministry of Agriculture, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
- Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Aquaculture, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
| | - Mausam Budhathoki
- Institute of Aquaculture, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, UK;
- Department of Food Science, University of Copenhagen, Rolighedsvej 26, 1958 Frederiksberg, Denmark
| | - Dingxi Safari Fang
- Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resource, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Wenbo Zhang
- China-ASEAN “The Belt and Road” Joint Laboratory of Mariculture Technology, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China; (H.X.); (T.W.)
- Centre for Research on Environmental Ecology and Fish Nutrition of the Ministry of Agriculture, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
- Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Aquaculture, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
| | - Xin Wang
- Best Aquaculture Practices (BAP), Global Seafood Alliance (GSA), Portsmouth, NH 03801, USA
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Pandey S, Bohl A, Favari V, Mora P, Phuyal S, Sojková E, Budhathoki M, Thomsen M. Consumers' willingness to buy meat and seafood products close to the expiry date: an exploratory study from Denmark. Front Nutr 2024; 11:1371634. [PMID: 38533462 PMCID: PMC10963504 DOI: 10.3389/fnut.2024.1371634] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2024] [Accepted: 02/29/2024] [Indexed: 03/28/2024] Open
Abstract
Introduction Meat- and seafood products close to their expiry date (MSPCED) are one of the significant contributors to the growing food waste. Therefore, this study aims to investigate consumers' attitudes and willingness to buy MSPCED. Methods An online questionnaire was used to collect data from 400 Danish consumers. Results and discussion Three consumer segments were identified based on their willingness to buy MSPCED: 39.8% of the participants showed a high willingness to buy MSPCED close to their expiry date ("All High"), 34.5% were selective with a high willingness to buy meat close to their expiry date but not seafood ("High meat, low seafood"), while 25.7% showed a low willingness to buy MSPCED ("All Low"). Consumers' willingness to buy MSPCED is influenced by the perceived quality of the products, food safety, social acceptability, and price. Consumers were willing to pay a higher price for minced beef close to the expiry date when compared to cod fillets, pork cuts, and chicken breasts. However, consumers were willing to buy cod fillets with the lowest discount percentage when compared to pork cuts, minced beef, and chicken breast. The findings suggest that price reduction and discount percentage can have varying effects in influencing willingness to pay for MSPCED. This study provides valuable insights, for food waste practitioners in the retail sector, to develop effective strategies for reducing food waste by influencing consumer willingness to buy and pay for perishable products like meat and seafood.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sujita Pandey
- Department of Food Science, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, Denmark
| | - Amanda Bohl
- Department of Food Science, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, Denmark
| | - Vittoria Favari
- Department of Food Science, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, Denmark
| | - Pietro Mora
- Department of Food Science, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, Denmark
| | - Sudikshya Phuyal
- Department of Food Science, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, Denmark
| | - Eliška Sojková
- Department of Food Science, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, Denmark
| | - Mausam Budhathoki
- Institute of Aquaculture, University of Stirling, Stirling, United Kingdom
| | - Marianne Thomsen
- Department of Food Science, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, Denmark
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Forleo MB, Bredice M. The Sustainability of Seafood Products in the Opinions of Italian Consumers of Generation Z. Foods 2023; 12:4047. [PMID: 38002105 PMCID: PMC10670485 DOI: 10.3390/foods12224047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2023] [Revised: 11/01/2023] [Accepted: 11/03/2023] [Indexed: 11/26/2023] Open
Abstract
This study aims to explore whether members of Generation Z have sensitivity and awareness about environmental issues related to seafood production and consumption, their beliefs on how to make more sustainable the future provisioning of seafood, their consumption frequency, and, finally, whether different profiles and groups of people could be detected. A survey was implemented with 778 Italian students attending secondary schools. Descriptive statistics, testing, and cluster analyses were applied. Results provide the sustainability profile of five groups, of which three are aligned with SDGs 12 and 14, but the other groups, comprising almost half of the sample, are insensitive, unaware, or irresolute about the sustainability of seafood production and consumption. Overall, people's environmental consciousness does not appear to be strongly related to the frequency of consumption of sustainable seafood species. Regarding the solutions for improving the sustainability of future seafood production, young respondents underlined the catching and raising of novel, discarded, not exploited, or marginally exploited seafood species. People declared a high knowledge of the nutritional and safety implications of seafood. This study is one of the few that explore issues specifically related to the profiles of Generation Z and young people's approach toward sustainable seafood production and consumption.
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Gibson KE, Sanders CE, Byrd AR, Lamm KW, Lamm AJ. The Influence of Sustainability on Identities and Seafood Consumption: Implications for Food Systems Education for Generation Z. Foods 2023; 12:foods12101933. [PMID: 37238752 DOI: 10.3390/foods12101933] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2023] [Revised: 04/14/2023] [Accepted: 05/05/2023] [Indexed: 05/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Seafood is a vital source of nutrition yet many consumers in the United States have been exposed to competing discourse about the industry's environmental impacts, influencing consumption habits. Generation Z, a generational cohort whose members value the sustainability of their purchasing decisions, may have unique opinions regarding sustainable seafood given their sustainability values. This qualitative study explored Generation Z undergraduate students' experiences with seafood and how they perceive the role of seafood in feeding people while sustaining the future natural environment. Data were collected using 11 focus groups in undergraduate classrooms. Researchers conducted an emergent thematic analysis and sufficient interrater reliability was established. Themes identified based on participants' experience with seafood included geographic location, experience fishing or with fishermen, and seafood and family, implying place attachment and family identity were intertwined with consumption behaviors. Themes identified based on participants' perception of seafood's role in feeding people included sustainability, regulations, limited seafood consumption, and limited knowledge, implying Generation Z's emerging status as the sustainability generation. Results indicate educators should focus on how sustainability can be emphasized in the classroom with clear actions undergraduate Generation Z students can take to improve sustainability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kristin E Gibson
- Department of Agricultural Leadership, Education, and Communication, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
| | - Catherine E Sanders
- Department of Agricultural and Human Sciences, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA
| | - Allison R Byrd
- Department of Agricultural Leadership, Education, and Communication, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
| | - Kevan W Lamm
- Department of Agricultural Leadership, Education, and Communication, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
| | - Alexa J Lamm
- Department of Agricultural Leadership, Education, and Communication, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
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