Survival of Frail Elderly with Delirium

Mortality Risk Following Delirium in Older Inpatients: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

The onset of delirium in older inpatients is associated with worse outcomes, including longer length of hospital stay, loss of functionality, loss of cognitive function, sleep disorders, increased polypharmacy, higher rates of adverse effects, and mortality. Previous studies have analyzed mortality after delirium, but without discriminating between settings, time, or critical conditions.

AIMS

To assess the pooled incidence of delirium and risk of mortality at different times after hospital admission in older people and its association with mortality and length of stay in hospitalized people aged 65 years or older.

METHODS

This systematic review and meta-analysis included studies analyzing the incidence of delirium and mortality. MEDLINE, Scopus, and the Web of Science were searched from inception to December 2023. PRISMA guidelines were followed. Inclusion criteria were original peer-reviewed studies in medical hospital areas using validated screening or diagnostic methods and quantifying mortality at admission or after excluding surgical patients. Exclusion criteria were studies that included only participants with a single condition at baseline, such as cancer, pneumonia, or frailty, or who were admitted to a specific unit such as the intensive care unit, as well as studies that assessed delirium in surgical areas. Study quality was assessed with Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal tools. The statistical analysis was performed in RevMan v5.4.0 (Cochrane Collaboration, Oxford, UK), using a random-effects model to calculate incidence, mortality, and length of hospital stay along with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The PROSPERO registration number for the review was CRD42023491604.

RESULTS

In the 32 included studies, the pooled cumulative incidence of delirium was 28.79% (95% confidence interval [CI] 24.06%, 33.51%). The mortality risk was higher in patients who had delirium during admission (odds ratio [OR] 5.23, 95% CI [3.45, 7.93]). This varied by time point: 1 month, OR 3.80 (95% CI 2.40, 6.00); 6 months, OR 3.48 (95% CI [2.01, 6.01]); 12 months, OR 2.73 (95% CI [2.07, 3.60]); 2 years, OR 2.09 (95% CI [1.57, 2.78]); and 5 years, OR 3.34 (95% CI [2.40, 4.64]). In the pooled analysis, mean length of hospital stay was 2.26 days (95% CI [0.54, 3.99]) longer in patients with delirium.

LINKING EVIDENCE TO ACTION

This study shows the markedly increased risk of mortality in older people with delirium during hospital admission and over the first month, in addition to an increased length of stay. The onset of delirium leads to increased use of healthcare resources. These data help to quantify the impact that delirium has on the health of older people, with implications for health system management. The evidence highlights the need to implement preventive pharmacological treatment or multicomponent strategies that minimize the onset of delirium in the older population.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The PROSPERO registration number for the review was: CRD42023491604, available at: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=491604.

Prognostic Value of a New Tool (the 3D/3D+) for Predicting 30-Day Mortality in Emergency Department Patients Aged 75 Years and Older

The 3D/3D+ multidimensional geriatric assessment tool provides an optimal model of emergency care for patients aged 75 and over who attend the Emergency Department (ED). The baseline, or static, component (3D) stratifies the degree of frailty prior to the acute illness, while the current, or dynamic, component (3D+) assesses the multidimensional impact caused by the acute illness and helps to guide the choice of care facility for patients upon their discharge from the ED. The objective of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of the 3D/3D+ to predict short- and long-term adverse outcomes in ED patients aged 75 years and older. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify the predictors of mortality 30 days after 3D/3D+ assessment. Two hundred and seventy-eight patients (59.7% women) with a median age of 86 years (interquartile range: 83-90) were analyzed. According to the baseline component (3D), 83.1% (95% CI: 78.2-87.3) presented some degree of frailty. The current component (3D+) presented alterations in 60.1% (95% CI: 54.1-65.9). The choice of care facility at ED discharge indicated by the 3D/3D+ was considered appropriate in 96.4% (95% CI: 93.0-98.0). Thirty-day all-cause mortality was 19.4%. Delirium and functional decline were the dimensions on the 3D/3D+ that were independently associated with 30-day mortality. These two dimensions had an area under receiver operating characteristic of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.73-0.86) for predicting 30-day mortality. The 3D/3D+ tool enhances the provision of comprehensive care by ED professionals, guides them in the choice of patients' discharge destination, and has a prognostic validity that serves to establish future therapeutic objectives.