A Decision-Theoretic Public Health Framework for Heated Tobacco and Nicotine Vaping Products

Potential Implications for Tobacco Industry Transformation of the Acquisition of Swedish Match by Philip Morris International

Philip Morris International's recent purchase of Swedish Match may prove to be a vital tobacco industry development. We focus on PMIs potential progress in moving from primarily selling cigarettes toward primarily selling noncombustible nicotine delivery products (NCNDPs). We also consider the potential contribution of the acquisition to industry transformation whereby other cigarette firms may potentially move toward primarily selling NCNDPs. We examine the potential impact on noncombustible nicotine delivery product use, including nicotine pouches (a major Swedish Match product), e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products, and, most importantly, on sales of the industry's staple, combustible cigarettes. We focus on the United States as a special case, where PMI is limited from entering the cigarette market. Implications: Philip Morris International's purchase of Swedish Match and policies regarding nicotine pouches (NPs) have been overlooked in the tobacco control literature. The acquisition indicates the importance of the NP market to the largest nonstate-owned tobacco company. The acquisition has the potential through pricing and marketing tactics to either encourage or discourage the use of NPs, e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products, and most importantly cigarettes. Due to its inability to sell cigarettes in the United States, PMI will have incentives to use its alternative nicotine delivery products, including its newly acquired NPs, to reduce the sale of cigarettes by other companies. However, the potential effects in other countries, where PMI does sell cigarettes, are less clear. Monitoring and analyzing tobacco company acquisitions is essential to studying future transitions in using different kinds of tobacco products, especially from cigarettes to lower-risk alternative nicotine delivery products.

Summary and Concluding Remarks: Patterns of Birth Cohort‒Specific Smoking Histories

The Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) Lung Working Group age-period-cohort methodology to study smoking patterns can be applied to tackle important issues in tobacco control and public health. This paper summarizes the analyses of smoking patterns in the U.S. by race/ethnicity, educational attainment, and family income and for each of the 50 U.S. states using the CISNET Lung Working Group age-period-cohort approach. We describe how decision makers, policy advocates, and researchers can use the sociodemographic analyses in this supplement to project state smoking trends and develop effective state-level tobacco control strategies. The all-cause mortality RR estimates associated with smoking for U.S. race/ethnicity and education groups are also discussed in the context of research that measures and evaluates health disparities. Finally, the application of the CISNET Lung Working Group age-period-cohort methodology to Brazil is reviewed with a view to how the same types of analyses can be applied to other low- and middle-income countries.