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Lenz M, Haider P, Steinacher E, Gatterer C, Zilberszac R, Demyanets S, Hengstenberg C, Wojta J, Heinz G, Speidl WS, Krychtiuk KA. Markers of Hemophagocytic Lymphohistiocytosis Are Associated with Mortality in Critically Ill Patients. J Clin Med 2025; 14:1970. [PMID: 40142777 PMCID: PMC11943210 DOI: 10.3390/jcm14061970] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2025] [Revised: 03/09/2025] [Accepted: 03/11/2025] [Indexed: 03/28/2025] Open
Abstract
Background: Critically ill patients often display systemic immune dysregulation and increased inflammatory activity. Hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) represents a rare syndrome defined by the inappropriate survival of cytotoxic T cells and the occurrence of cytokine storms. Although HLH is characterized by relatively high mortality rates, little is known about the predictive value of its diagnostic criteria. Accordingly, our objective was to evaluate these properties within an unselected cohort of critically ill patients admitted to a tertiary intensive care unit (ICU). Methods: This single-center prospective observational study included 176 consecutive patients. Available HLH criteria at admission were assessed, including sCD25 measurements performed using ELISA. Results: Overall, 30-day mortality rates were significantly higher in patients exhibiting two or more criteria of HLH (21.9% vs. 43.3%, p = 0.033). Moreover, sCD25 emerged as an independent risk predictor of 30-day mortality independent of age, sex, the use of vasopressors, and mechanical ventilation (HR 2.72 for the highest tertile vs. lowest tertile, p = 0.012). Additionally, fibrinogen was significantly decreased in non-survivors (p = 0.019), and its addition to the SAPS II score significantly increased its prognostic capability (p = 0.045). In contrast, ferritin and triglyceride levels were not different in survivors versus non-survivors. Conclusions: Critically ill patients displaying two or more HLH criteria exhibit a dramatic increase in 30-day mortality, even in the absence of an established HLH diagnosis. Furthermore, elevated levels of sCD25 and decreased levels of fibrinogen were found to be significant predictors of mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Max Lenz
- Department of Internal Medicine II, Division of Cardiology, Medical University of Vienna, 1090 Vienna, Austria; (M.L.); (P.H.); (E.S.); (C.G.); (R.Z.); (C.H.); (J.W.); (G.H.); (K.A.K.)
- Ludwig Boltzmann Institute for Cardiovascular Research, 1090 Vienna, Austria
| | - Patrick Haider
- Department of Internal Medicine II, Division of Cardiology, Medical University of Vienna, 1090 Vienna, Austria; (M.L.); (P.H.); (E.S.); (C.G.); (R.Z.); (C.H.); (J.W.); (G.H.); (K.A.K.)
| | - Eva Steinacher
- Department of Internal Medicine II, Division of Cardiology, Medical University of Vienna, 1090 Vienna, Austria; (M.L.); (P.H.); (E.S.); (C.G.); (R.Z.); (C.H.); (J.W.); (G.H.); (K.A.K.)
| | - Constantin Gatterer
- Department of Internal Medicine II, Division of Cardiology, Medical University of Vienna, 1090 Vienna, Austria; (M.L.); (P.H.); (E.S.); (C.G.); (R.Z.); (C.H.); (J.W.); (G.H.); (K.A.K.)
| | - Robert Zilberszac
- Department of Internal Medicine II, Division of Cardiology, Medical University of Vienna, 1090 Vienna, Austria; (M.L.); (P.H.); (E.S.); (C.G.); (R.Z.); (C.H.); (J.W.); (G.H.); (K.A.K.)
| | - Svitlana Demyanets
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, Klinik Hietzing, 1130 Vienna, Austria;
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, Medical University of Vienna, 1090 Vienna, Austria
| | - Christian Hengstenberg
- Department of Internal Medicine II, Division of Cardiology, Medical University of Vienna, 1090 Vienna, Austria; (M.L.); (P.H.); (E.S.); (C.G.); (R.Z.); (C.H.); (J.W.); (G.H.); (K.A.K.)
| | - Johann Wojta
- Department of Internal Medicine II, Division of Cardiology, Medical University of Vienna, 1090 Vienna, Austria; (M.L.); (P.H.); (E.S.); (C.G.); (R.Z.); (C.H.); (J.W.); (G.H.); (K.A.K.)
- Ludwig Boltzmann Institute for Cardiovascular Research, 1090 Vienna, Austria
- Core Facilities, Medical University of Vienna, 1090 Vienna, Austria
| | - Gottfried Heinz
- Department of Internal Medicine II, Division of Cardiology, Medical University of Vienna, 1090 Vienna, Austria; (M.L.); (P.H.); (E.S.); (C.G.); (R.Z.); (C.H.); (J.W.); (G.H.); (K.A.K.)
| | - Walter S. Speidl
- Department of Internal Medicine II, Division of Cardiology, Medical University of Vienna, 1090 Vienna, Austria; (M.L.); (P.H.); (E.S.); (C.G.); (R.Z.); (C.H.); (J.W.); (G.H.); (K.A.K.)
| | - Konstantin A. Krychtiuk
- Department of Internal Medicine II, Division of Cardiology, Medical University of Vienna, 1090 Vienna, Austria; (M.L.); (P.H.); (E.S.); (C.G.); (R.Z.); (C.H.); (J.W.); (G.H.); (K.A.K.)
- Ludwig Boltzmann Institute for Cardiovascular Research, 1090 Vienna, Austria
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Nickelsen S, Grosse Darrelmann E, Seidlmayer L, Fink K, Britsch S, Duerschmied D, Scharf RE, Elsaesser A, Helbing T. Ferritin Levels on Hospital Admission Predict Hypoxic-Ischemic Encephalopathy in Patients After Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest: A Prospective Observational Single-Center Study. J Intensive Care Med 2024; 39:1120-1130. [PMID: 38748543 DOI: 10.1177/08850666241252602] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/19/2024]
Abstract
AIM Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is a major health concern in Western societies. Poor outcome after OHCA is determined by the extent of hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE). Dysregulation of iron metabolism has prognostic relevance in patients with ischemic stroke and sepsis. The aim of this study was to determine whether serum iron parameters help to estimate outcomes after OHCA. METHODS In this prospective single-center study, 70 adult OHCA patients were analyzed. Serum ferritin, iron, transferrin (TRF), and TRF saturation (TRFS) were measured in blood samples drawn on day 0 (admission), day 2, day 4, and 6 months after the return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). The association of 4 iron parameters with in-hospital mortality, neurological outcome (cerebral performance category [CPC]), and HIE was investigated by receiver operating characteristics and multivariate regression analyses. RESULTS OHCA subjects displayed significantly increased serum ferritin levels on day 0 and lowered iron, TRF, and TRFS on days 2 and 4 after ROSC, as compared to concentrations measured at a 6-month follow-up. Iron parameters were not associated with in-hospital mortality or neurological outcomes according to the CPC. Ferritin on admission was an independent predictor of features of HIE on cranial computed tomography and death due to HIE. CONCLUSION OHCA is associated with alterations in iron metabolism that persist for several days after ROSC. Ferritin on admission can help to predict HIE.
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Affiliation(s)
- Swantje Nickelsen
- Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Oldenburg, Carl von Ossietzky University, Oldenburg, Germany
| | - Eleonore Grosse Darrelmann
- Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Oldenburg, Carl von Ossietzky University, Oldenburg, Germany
| | - Lea Seidlmayer
- Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Oldenburg, Carl von Ossietzky University, Oldenburg, Germany
| | - Katrin Fink
- University Emergency Centre, Faculty of Medicine, University of Freiburg, Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany
| | - Simone Britsch
- Centre for Acute Cardiovascular Medicine Mannheim (DZKAM), Department of Cardiology, Angiology, Haemostaseology and Medical Intensive Care, University Medical Centre Mannheim, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
- German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Mannheim, Germany
- European Centre for Angioscience (ECAS), Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Daniel Duerschmied
- Centre for Acute Cardiovascular Medicine Mannheim (DZKAM), Department of Cardiology, Angiology, Haemostaseology and Medical Intensive Care, University Medical Centre Mannheim, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
- German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Mannheim, Germany
- European Centre for Angioscience (ECAS), Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Ruediger E Scharf
- Centre for Acute Cardiovascular Medicine Mannheim (DZKAM), Department of Cardiology, Angiology, Haemostaseology and Medical Intensive Care, University Medical Centre Mannheim, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
- German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Mannheim, Germany
- European Centre for Angioscience (ECAS), Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
- Division of Experimental and Clinical Haemostasis, Haemotherapy, and Transfusion Medicine, and Haemophilia Comprehensive Care Centre, Institute of Transplantation Diagnostics and Cell Therapy, Heinrich Heine University Medical Centre, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - Albrecht Elsaesser
- Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Oldenburg, Carl von Ossietzky University, Oldenburg, Germany
| | - Thomas Helbing
- Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Oldenburg, Carl von Ossietzky University, Oldenburg, Germany
- Centre for Acute Cardiovascular Medicine Mannheim (DZKAM), Department of Cardiology, Angiology, Haemostaseology and Medical Intensive Care, University Medical Centre Mannheim, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
- German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Mannheim, Germany
- European Centre for Angioscience (ECAS), Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany
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Leuzzi G, Giardulli B, Pierantozzi E, Recenti F, Brugnolo A, Testa M. Personality traits and levels of anxiety and depression among martial artists: a cross-sectional study. BMC Psychol 2024; 12:607. [PMID: 39478630 PMCID: PMC11526540 DOI: 10.1186/s40359-024-02096-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2024] [Accepted: 10/17/2024] [Indexed: 11/02/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In recent years, fighting arts (e.g., Karate, Judo, Jujitsu, Boxe) have gained broader attention due to their multiple benefits, involving both physical and psychological enhancements for practitioners. Despite that, studies revolving around specific psychological characteristics such as personality traits are scarce. This study explored potential connections between the personality traits of practitioners and the specific fighting art they engage in, and investigated levels of anxiety and depression in fighting artists. METHODS A web-based cross-sectional survey instrument was developed and disseminated across the entire Italian territory. Participants were eligible if adults (> 18 years old) engaged in any fighting arts for a minimum of one year, with no additional restrictions. The survey employed the Big Five Inventory (BFI) with 44 questions to explore personality traits using the OCEAN model, and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) to explore anxiety and depression levels. RESULTS A total of 770 questionnaires were collected from July to September 2023. Participants were mainly men (M = 571, 74.5%; F = 199, 25.8%; mean age 45.2 ± 14.8), and most of the participants practised in the North of Italy (N = 493, 64.0%). The mean age of practice was 28.5 ± 14.9 years and the most practised fighting arts were Judo (N = 349, 45.3%), Karate (N = 272, 35.3%) and Jujitsu (N = 42, 5.5%). Personality traits were identified as openness, conscientiousness, extroversion, agreeableness, neuroticism and the results were as follows: O) 40.1 ± 6.30; C) 37.1 ± 5.78; E) 28.2 ± 5.64; A) 35.1 ± 5.08; N) 19,8 ± 5,51. Anxiety and depression scored respectively 5.93 ± 3.14 and 3.67 ± 2.74. CONCLUSIONS Fighting artists exhibit elevated levels of positive personality traits, such as openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, and agreeableness. Conversely, neuroticism tends to be lower among them. Moreover, anxiety and depression levels among fighting artists are lower than the Italian normative values. Fighting arts, particularly Karate and Judo, emerge as promising avenues for adults seeking innovative or complementary strategies to foster positive personality traits (e.g., openness, conscientiousness) while mitigating anxiety and depression. Future studies could explore other personality traits, including Machiavellianism, and explore additional psychological characteristics such as aggressiveness to provide a more comprehensive understanding.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gaia Leuzzi
- Department of Neurosciences, Rehabilitation, Ophthalmology, Genetics, Maternal and Child Health, University of Genova, Campus of Savona, Via Magliotto 2, 17100, Savona, Italy
- Department of Physical Education and Rehabilitation, Experimental Anatomy Research Group (EXAN), Laarbeeklaan 103, 1090, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Benedetto Giardulli
- Department of Neurosciences, Rehabilitation, Ophthalmology, Genetics, Maternal and Child Health, University of Genova, Campus of Savona, Via Magliotto 2, 17100, Savona, Italy
| | - Emanuela Pierantozzi
- Department of Neurosciences, Rehabilitation, Ophthalmology, Genetics, Maternal and Child Health, University of Genova, Campus of Savona, Via Magliotto 2, 17100, Savona, Italy
| | - Filippo Recenti
- Department of Neurosciences, Rehabilitation, Ophthalmology, Genetics, Maternal and Child Health, University of Genova, Campus of Savona, Via Magliotto 2, 17100, Savona, Italy
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Orthopedics, Department of Clinical Sciences Lund, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Andrea Brugnolo
- Clinical Psychology Unit, IRCCS Ospedale Policlinico San Martino, Genoa, Italy
| | - Marco Testa
- Department of Neurosciences, Rehabilitation, Ophthalmology, Genetics, Maternal and Child Health, University of Genova, Campus of Savona, Via Magliotto 2, 17100, Savona, Italy.
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Mishra A, Juneja D. Deciphering the iron enigma: Navigating the complexities of iron metabolism in critical illness. World J Clin Cases 2024; 12:6027-6031. [PMID: 39328848 PMCID: PMC11326100 DOI: 10.12998/wjcc.v12.i27.6027] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2024] [Revised: 05/30/2024] [Accepted: 06/20/2024] [Indexed: 07/29/2024] Open
Abstract
Iron is a double-edged sword! Despite being essential for numerous physiological processes of the body, a dysregulated iron metabolism can result in tissue damage, exaggerated inflammatory response, and increased susceptibility to infection with certain pathogens that thrive in iron-rich environment. During sepsis, there is an alteration of iron metabolism, leading to increased transport and uptake into cells. This increase in labile iron may cause oxidative damage and cellular injury (ferroptosis) which progresses as the disease worsens. Critically ill patients are often complicated with systemic inflammation which may contribute to multiple organ dysfunction syndrome or sepsis, a common cause of mortality in intensive care unit. Originally, ferritin was known to play an important role in the hematopoietic system for its iron storage capacity. Recently, its role has emerged as a predictor of poor prognosis in chronic inflammation and critical illnesses. Apart from predicting the disease outcome, serum ferritin can potentially reflect disease activity as well.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anjali Mishra
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Holy Family Hospital, Delhi 110025, India
| | - Deven Juneja
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Max Super Speciality Hospital, New Delhi 110017, India
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Zhang X, Holbein B, Zhou J, Lehmann C. Iron Metabolism in the Recovery Phase of Critical Illness with a Focus on Sepsis. Int J Mol Sci 2024; 25:7004. [PMID: 39000113 PMCID: PMC11241301 DOI: 10.3390/ijms25137004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2024] [Revised: 06/19/2024] [Accepted: 06/22/2024] [Indexed: 07/16/2024] Open
Abstract
Iron is an essential nutrient for humans and microbes, such as bacteria. Iron deficiency commonly occurs in critically ill patients, but supplementary iron therapy is not considered during the acute phase of critical illness since it increases iron availability for invading microbes and oxidative stress. However, persistent iron deficiency in the recovery phase is harmful and has potential adverse outcomes such as cognitive dysfunction, fatigue, and cardiopulmonary dysfunction. Therefore, it is important to treat iron deficiency quickly and efficiently. This article reviews current knowledge about iron-related biomarkers in critical illness with a focus on patients with sepsis, and provides possible criteria to guide decision-making for iron supplementation in the recovery phase of those patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiyang Zhang
- Department of Anesthesia, Pain Management and Perioperative Medicine, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 1X5, Canada; (X.Z.); (J.Z.)
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Precision Anaesthesia and Perioperative Organ Protection, Department of Anesthesiology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China
| | - Bruce Holbein
- Department of Microbiology & Immunology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 1X5, Canada;
| | - Juan Zhou
- Department of Anesthesia, Pain Management and Perioperative Medicine, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 1X5, Canada; (X.Z.); (J.Z.)
| | - Christian Lehmann
- Department of Anesthesia, Pain Management and Perioperative Medicine, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 1X5, Canada; (X.Z.); (J.Z.)
- Department of Microbiology & Immunology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 1X5, Canada;
- Department of Physiology & Biophysics, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 1X5, Canada
- Department of Pharmacology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
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Dhondge RH, Agrawal S, Kumar S, Acharya S, Karwa V. A Comprehensive Review on Serum Ferritin as a Prognostic Marker in Intensive Care Units: Insights Into Ischemic Heart Disease. Cureus 2024; 16:e57365. [PMID: 38694418 PMCID: PMC11061809 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.57365] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2024] [Accepted: 03/31/2024] [Indexed: 05/04/2024] Open
Abstract
Serum ferritin has garnered considerable attention as a prognostic marker in intensive care units (ICUs), offering valuable insights into patient outcomes and clinical management strategies. This comprehensive review examines the role of serum ferritin in predicting outcomes among critically ill patients, with a particular focus on its implications for ischemic heart disease (IHD). Elevated serum ferritin levels have consistently been associated with adverse outcomes in ICU settings, including increased mortality, prolonged hospital stays, and higher morbidity rates. Furthermore, the relationship between serum ferritin levels and IHD underscores its potential as a biomarker for cardiovascular risk assessment in critically ill populations. The review synthesizes existing literature to highlight the predictive value of serum ferritin in assessing illness severity and guiding clinical decision-making in the ICUs. It also explores potential mechanisms linking serum ferritin to adverse outcomes and discusses implications for clinical practice. Integrating serum ferritin measurements into routine assessments could enhance prognostication and risk stratification in ICU patients, while further research is needed to elucidate optimal management strategies and therapeutic targets. Collaborative efforts between clinicians and researchers are essential to advance our understanding of serum ferritin's prognostic value in the ICUs and translate this knowledge into improved patient care and outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rushikesh H Dhondge
- Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Higher Education and Research, Wardha, IND
| | - Sachin Agrawal
- Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Higher Education and Research, Wardha, IND
| | - Sunil Kumar
- Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Higher Education and Research, Wardha, IND
| | - Sourya Acharya
- Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Higher Education and Research, Wardha, IND
| | - Vineet Karwa
- Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Higher Education and Research, Wardha, IND
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Fouladseresht H, Ghamar Talepoor A, Eskandari N, Norouzian M, Ghezelbash B, Beyranvand MR, Nejadghaderi SA, Carson-Chahhoud K, Kolahi AA, Safiri S. Potential Immune Indicators for Predicting the Prognosis of COVID-19 and Trauma: Similarities and Disparities. Front Immunol 2022; 12:785946. [PMID: 35126355 PMCID: PMC8815083 DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2021.785946] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2021] [Accepted: 12/17/2021] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Although cellular and molecular mediators of the immune system have the potential to be prognostic indicators of disease outcomes, temporal interference between diseases might affect the immune mediators, and make them difficult to predict disease complications. Today one of the most important challenges is predicting the prognosis of COVID-19 in the context of other inflammatory diseases such as traumatic injuries. Many diseases with inflammatory properties are usually polyphasic and the kinetics of inflammatory mediators in various inflammatory diseases might be different. To find the most appropriate evaluation time of immune mediators to accurately predict COVID-19 prognosis in the trauma environment, researchers must investigate and compare cellular and molecular alterations based on their kinetics after the start of COVID-19 symptoms and traumatic injuries. The current review aimed to investigate the similarities and differences of common inflammatory mediators (C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, ferritin, and serum amyloid A), cytokine/chemokine levels (IFNs, IL-1, IL-6, TNF-α, IL-10, and IL-4), and immune cell subtypes (neutrophil, monocyte, Th1, Th2, Th17, Treg and CTL) based on the kinetics between patients with COVID-19 and trauma. The mediators may help us to accurately predict the severity of COVID-19 complications and follow up subsequent clinical interventions. These findings could potentially help in a better understanding of COVID-19 and trauma pathogenesis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hamed Fouladseresht
- Department of Immunology, School of Medicine, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | - Atefe Ghamar Talepoor
- Department of Immunology, School of Medicine, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Nahid Eskandari
- Department of Immunology, School of Medicine, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | - Marzieh Norouzian
- Department of Laboratory Sciences, School of Allied Medical Sciences, Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences, Bandar Abbas, Iran
| | - Behrooz Ghezelbash
- Department of Immunology, School of Medicine, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | - Mohammad Reza Beyranvand
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi
- Research Center for Integrative Medicine in Aging, Aging Research Institute, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
- Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Expert Group (SRMEG), Universal Scientific Education and Research Network (USERN), Tehran, Iran
| | - Kristin Carson-Chahhoud
- Australian Centre for Precision Health, Allied Health and Human Performance, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia
- School of Medicine, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Ali-Asghar Kolahi
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Saeid Safiri
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
- Immunology Research Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
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Chirmule N, Nair P, Desai B, Khare R, Nerurkar V, Gaur A. Predicting the severity of disease progression in COVID-19 at the individual and population level: A mathematical model. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2021:2021.04.01.21254804. [PMID: 33851191 PMCID: PMC8043488 DOI: 10.1101/2021.04.01.21254804] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
The impact of COVID-19 disease on health and economy has been global, and the magnitude of devastation is unparalleled in modern history. Any potential course of action to manage this complex disease requires the systematic and efficient analysis of data that can delineate the underlying pathogenesis. We have developed a mathematical model of disease progression to predict the clinical outcome, utilizing a set of causal factors known to contribute to COVID-19 pathology such as age, comorbidities, and certain viral and immunological parameters. Viral load and selected indicators of a dysfunctional immune response, such as cytokines IL-6 and IFNα, which contribute to the cytokine storm and fever, parameters of inflammation d-dimer and ferritin, aberrations in lymphocyte number, lymphopenia, and neutralizing antibodies were included for the analysis. The model provides a framework to unravel the multi-factorial complexities of the immune response manifested in SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals. Further, this model can be valuable to predict clinical outcome at an individual level, and to develop strategies for allocating appropriate resources to mitigate severe cases at a population level.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Bela Desai
- NanoCellect Biomedical, Inc., San Diego, California, USA
| | | | - Vivek Nerurkar
- Department of Tropical Medicine, Medical Microbiology and Pharmacology, John A. Burns School of Medicine, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
| | - Amitabh Gaur
- Innovative Assay Solutions LLC, San Diego, California, USA
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Predicting the Severity of Disease Progression in COVID-19 at the Individual and Population Level: A Mathematical Model. CLINICAL & EXPERIMENTAL PHARMACOLOGY 2021; 11:283. [PMID: 34367726 PMCID: PMC8343949] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The impact of COVID-19 disease on health and economy has been global, and the magnitude of devastation is unparalleled in modern history. Any potential course of action to manage this complex disease requires the systematic and efficient analysis of data that can delineate the underlying pathogenesis. We have developed a mathematical model of disease progression to predict the clinical outcome, utilizing a set of causal factors known to contribute to COVID-19 pathology such as age, comorbidities, and certain viral and immunological parameters. Viral load and selected indicators of a dysfunctional immune response, such as cytokines IL-6 and IFNα which contribute to the cytokine storm and fever, parameters of inflammation D-Dimer and Ferritin, aberrations in lymphocyte number, lymphopenia, and neutralizing antibodies were included for the analysis. The model provides a framework to unravel the multi-factorial complexities of the immune response manifested in SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals. Further, this model can be valuable to predict clinical outcome at an individual level, and to develop strategies for allocating appropriate resources to manage severe cases at a population level.
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