Can the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant Confer Natural Immunity against COVID-19?

Transmission Patterns of Co-Circulation of Omicron Sub-Lineages in Hong Kong SAR, China, a City with Rigorous Social Distancing Measures, in 2022

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to characterize the changing landscape of circulating SARS-CoV-2 lineages in the local community of Hong Kong throughout 2022. We examined how adjustments to quarantine arrangements influenced the transmission pattern of Omicron variants in a city with relatively rigorous social distancing measures at that time.

METHODS

In 2022, a total of 4684 local SARS-CoV-2 genomes were sequenced using the Oxford Nanopore GridION sequencer. SARS-CoV-2 consensus genomes were generated by MAFFT, and the maximum likelihood phylogeny of these genomes was determined using IQ-TREE. The dynamic changes in lineages were depicted in a time tree created by Nextstrain. Statistical analysis was conducted to assess the correlation between changes in the number of lineages and adjustments to quarantine arrangements.

RESULTS

By the end of 2022, a total of 83 SARS-CoV-2 lineages were identified in the community. The increase in the number of new lineages was significantly associated with the relaxation of quarantine arrangements (One-way ANOVA, F(5, 47) = 18.233, p < 0.001)). Over time, Omicron BA.5 sub-lineages replaced BA.2.2 and became the predominant Omicron variants in Hong Kong. The influx of new lineages reshaped the dynamics of Omicron variants in the community without fluctuating the death rate and hospitalization rate (One-way ANOVA, F(5, 47) = 2.037, p = 0.091).

CONCLUSION

This study revealed that even with an extended mandatory quarantine period for incoming travelers, it may not be feasible to completely prevent the introduction and subsequent community spread of highly contagious Omicron variants. Ongoing molecular surveillance of COVID-19 remains essential to monitor the emergence of new recombinant variants.

Current Progress, Challenges and Prospects in the Development of COVID-19 Vaccines

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in over 772 million confirmed cases, including nearly 7 million deaths, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Leveraging rapid development, accelerated vaccine approval processes, and large-scale production of various COVID-19 vaccines using different technical platforms, the WHO declared an end to the global health emergency of COVID-19 on May 5, 2023. Current COVID-19 vaccines encompass inactivated, live attenuated, viral vector, protein subunit, nucleic acid (DNA and RNA), and virus-like particle (VLP) vaccines. However, the efficacy of these vaccines is diminishing due to the constant mutation of SARS-CoV-2 and the heightened immune evasion abilities of emerging variants. This review examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the biological characteristics of the virus, and its diverse variants. Moreover, the review underscores the effectiveness, advantages, and disadvantages of authorized COVID-19 vaccines. Additionally, it analyzes the challenges, strategies, and future prospects of developing a safe, broad-spectrum vaccine that confers sufficient and sustainable immune protection against new variants of SARS-CoV-2. These discussions not only offer insight for the development of next-generation COVID-19 vaccines but also summarize experiences for combating future emerging viruses.

Comparative Computational Analysis of Spike Protein Structural Stability in SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Subvariants

The continuous emergence of new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants with multiple spike (S) protein mutations pose serious threats to current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) therapies. A comprehensive understanding of the structural stability of SARS-CoV-2 variants is vital for the development of effective therapeutic strategies as it can offer valuable insights into their potential impact on viral infectivity. S protein mediates a virus' attachment to host cells by binding to angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) through its receptor-binding domain (RBD), and mutations in this protein can affect its stability and binding affinity. We analyzed S protein structural stability in various Omicron subvariants computationally. Notably, the S protein sequences analyzed in this work were obtained directly from our own sample collection. We evaluated the binding free energy between S protein and ACE2 in several complex forms. Additionally, we measured distances between the RBD of each chain in S protein to analyze conformational changes. Unlike most of the prior studies, we analyzed full-length S protein-ACE2 complexes instead of only RBD-ACE2 complexes. Omicron subvariants including BA.1, BA.2, BA.2.12.1, BA.4/BA.5, BA.2.75, BA.2.75_K147E, BA.4.6 and BA.4.6_N658S showed enhanced stability compared to wild type, potentially due to distinct S protein mutations. Among them, BA.2.75 and BA.4.6_N658S exhibited the highest and lowest level of stability, respectively.

Mutation bias and the predictability of evolution

Predicting evolutionary outcomes is an important research goal in a diversity of contexts. The focus of evolutionary forecasting is usually on adaptive processes, and efforts to improve prediction typically focus on selection. However, adaptive processes often rely on new mutations, which can be strongly influenced by predictable biases in mutation. Here, we provide an overview of existing theory and evidence for such mutation-biased adaptation and consider the implications of these results for the problem of prediction, in regard to topics such as the evolution of infectious diseases, resistance to biochemical agents, as well as cancer and other kinds of somatic evolution. We argue that empirical knowledge of mutational biases is likely to improve in the near future, and that this knowledge is readily applicable to the challenges of short-term prediction. This article is part of the theme issue 'Interdisciplinary approaches to predicting evolutionary biology'.

Marcotte A, M. Kaufman E, Moscovici Z, R. Adams O, Lovins S, R. Garcia J, N. Gesselman A. American Singles' Attitudes Toward Future Romantic/Sexual Partners' COVID-19 Vaccination Status: Evidence for both Vigilance and Indifference in a National Sample

Around 142 million American adults are currently single; at least half of these singles want to pursue a romantic partner. Romantic dating can involve exposure to numerous people. Thus, dating can significantly impact pathogen exposure risk. In a demographically-representative cross-sectional survey conducted in 2021 (N = 5,000), we examined U.S. American singles' COVID-19 vaccination status, assessed their preferences around a potential partner's COVID-19 vaccination status, and identified demographic subgroups of singles particularly opposed to or indifferent to a partner being vaccinated against COVID-19. Our results showed 65% of participants were fully vaccinated, 10% were partially vaccinated, and 26% were unvaccinated against COVID-19. With regards to partner preferences, half wanted a vaccinated partner; 18.9% wanted a vaccinated partner but would make exceptions; 6.1% wanted an unvaccinated partner; and 25% reported that they did not care about their dating partner's vaccination status. Partner preferences were largely aligned with participants' own vaccination status, such that vaccinated participants preferred vaccinated partners. However, those preferring unvaccinated partners-or those willing to make exceptions for a partner-were most likely to identify as men, younger in age, a political affiliation outside of the two-party political system, a gender or sexual minority, or as a racial minority (i.e., Black/African-American or South Asian). Additionally, participants who were employed (vs. unemployed) were more likely to make exceptions for or prefer an unvaccinated partner. These results suggest that singles prefer homophily in COVID-19 vaccine status, and that minoritized subgroups of singles are more likely to maintain a social network including unvaccinated close others.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12119-023-10097-9.

On the Implementation of the Artificial Neural Network Approach for Forecasting Different Healthcare Events

The rising number of confirmed cases and deaths in Pakistan caused by the coronavirus have caused problems in all areas of the country, not just healthcare. For accurate policy making, it is very important to have accurate and efficient predictions of confirmed cases and death counts. In this article, we use a coronavirus dataset that includes the number of deaths, confirmed cases, and recovered cases to test an artificial neural network model and compare it to different univariate time series models. In contrast to the artificial neural network model, we consider five univariate time series models to predict confirmed cases, deaths count, and recovered cases. The considered models are applied to Pakistan’s daily records of confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered cases from 10 March 2020 to 3 July 2020. Two statistical measures are considered to assess the performances of the models. In addition, a statistical test, namely, the Diebold and Mariano test, is implemented to check the accuracy of the mean errors. The results (mean error and statistical test) show that the artificial neural network model is better suited to predict death and recovered coronavirus cases. In addition, the moving average model outperforms all other confirmed case models, while the autoregressive moving average is the second-best model.

Update on the omicron sub-variants BA.4 and BA.5

Several nations have recently begun to relax their public health protocols, particularly regarding the use of face masks when engaging in outdoor activities. This is because there has been a general trend towards fewer cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, new Omicron sub-variants (designated BA.4 and BA.5) have recently emerged. These two subvariants are thought to be the cause of an increase in COVID-19 cases in South Africa, the United States, and Europe. They have also begun to spread throughout Asia. They evolved from the Omicron lineage with characteristics that make them even more contagious and which allow them to circumvent immunity from a previous infection or vaccination. This article reviews a number of scientific considerations about these new variants, including their apparently reduced clinical severity.

SARS-CoV-2-The Role of Natural Immunity: A Narrative Review

BACKGROUND

Both natural immunity and vaccine-induced immunity to COVID-19 may be useful to reduce the mortality/morbidity of this disease, but still a lot of controversy exists.

AIMS

This narrative review analyzes the literature regarding these two immunitary processes and more specifically: (a) the duration of natural immunity; (b) cellular immunity; (c) cross-reactivity; (d) the duration of post-vaccination immune protection; (e) the probability of reinfection and its clinical manifestations in the recovered patients; (f) the comparisons between vaccinated and unvaccinated as to the possible reinfections; (g) the role of hybrid immunity; (h) the effectiveness of natural and vaccine-induced immunity against Omicron variant; (i) the comparative incidence of adverse effects after vaccination in recovered individuals vs. COVID-19-naïve subjects.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

through multiple search engines we investigated COVID-19 literature related to the aims of the review, published since April 2020 through July 2022, including also the previous articles pertinent to the investigated topics.

RESULTS

nearly 900 studies were collected, and 246 pertinent articles were included. It was highlighted that the vast majority of the individuals after suffering from COVID-19 develop a natural immunity both of cell-mediated and humoral type, which is effective over time and provides protection against both reinfection and serious illness. Vaccine-induced immunity was shown to decay faster than natural immunity. In general, the severity of the symptoms of reinfection is significantly lower than in the primary infection, with a lower degree of hospitalizations (0.06%) and an extremely low mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

this extensive narrative review regarding a vast number of articles highlighted the valuable protection induced by the natural immunity after COVID-19, which seems comparable or superior to the one induced by anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Consequently, vaccination of the unvaccinated COVID-19-recovered subjects may not be indicated. Further research is needed in order to: (a) measure the durability of immunity over time; (b) evaluate both the impacts of Omicron BA.5 on vaccinated and healed subjects and the role of hybrid immunity.

Clinical Progression and Outcome of Hospitalized Patients Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant in Shanghai, China

Background: Studies on the Omicron variant infection have generally been restricted to descriptions of its initial clinical and epidemiological characteristics. We investigated the timeline-related progression and clinical outcome in hospitalized individuals with the Omicron variant. Methods: We conducted a retrospective, single-centered study including 226 laboratory-confirmed cases with the Omicron variant between 6 April and 11 May 2022 in Shanghai, China. The final date of follow-up was 30 May 2022. Results: Among 226 enrolled patients, the median age was 52 years, and 118 (52.2%) were female. The duration from onset of symptoms to hospitalization was 3 days (interquartile range (IQR): 2–4 days) for symptomatic patients. Cough occurred in 168 patients (74.3%). The median interval to negative reverse-transcriptase PCR tests of nasopharynx swab was 10 days ((IQR): 8–13 days). No radiographic progressions were found in 196 patients on the 7th day after onset of symptoms. The median duration of fever in all participants was 5 days (IQR: 4–6 days). The median PCR conversion time of Paxlovid-treated patients was 8 days (IQR: 7–10 days) compared with that of a traditional Chinese herb medicine lianhuaqingwen (10 days, IQR: 8–13 days) (p = 0.00056). Booster vaccination can significantly decrease the severity of Omicron infection when compared with unvaccinated patients (p = 0.009). In multivariate logistic analysis, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) (OR = 1.05) was independently related to the severity of the infection. Conclusions: The majority of clinical symptoms of Omicron infection were not severe. Early and aggressive administration of Paxlovid can significantly reduce the PCR conversion time. Booster vaccination should also be highly recommended in the population over 14 years old.

Comparative overview of emerging RNA viruses: Epidemiology, pathogenesis, diagnosis and current treatment

From many decades, emerging infections have threatened humanity. The pandemics caused by different CoVs have already claimed and will continue to claim millions of lives. The SARS, Ebola, MERS epidemics and the most recent emergence of COVID-19 pandemic have threatened populations across borders. Since a highly pathogenic CoV has been evolved into the human population in the twenty-first century known as SARS, scientific advancements and innovative methods to tackle these viruses have increased in order to improve response preparedness towards the unpredictable threat posed by these rapidly emerging pathogens. Recently published review articles on SARS-CoV-2 have mainly focused on its pathogenesis, epidemiology and available treatments. However, in this review, we have done a systematic comparison of all three CoVs i.e., SARS, MERS and SARS-CoV-2 along with Ebola and Zika in terms of their epidemiology, virology, clinical features and current treatment strategies. This review focuses on important emerging RNA viruses starting from Zika, Ebola and the CoVs which include SARS, MERS and SARS-CoV-2. Each of these viruses has been elaborated on the basis of their epidemiology, virulence, transmission and treatment. However, special attention has been given to SARS-CoV-2 and the disease caused by it i.e., COVID-19 due to current havoc caused worldwide. At the end, insights into the current understanding of the lessons learned from previous epidemics to combat emerging CoVs have been described. The travel-related viral spread, the unprecedented nosocomial outbreaks and the high case-fatality rates associated with these highly transmissible and pathogenic viruses highlight the need for new prophylactic and therapeutic actions which include but are not limited to clinical indicators, contact tracing, and laboratory investigations as important factors that need to be taken into account in order to arrive at the final conclusion.

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Recently published review articles on SARS-CoV-2 have mainly focused on its pathogenesis, epidemiology and available treatments.

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The pandemics caused by different CoVs have already claimed and will continue to claim millions of lives.

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This review focuses on important emerging RNA viruses starting from Zika, Ebola and the CoVs which include SARS, MERS and SARS-CoV-2.

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Globally, numerous studies and researchers have recently started fighting this virus.

Understanding the omicron variant (B.1.1.529) of SARS-CoV-2: Mutational impacts, concerns, and the possible solutions

Despite many nations' best efforts to contain the so-called COVID-19 pandemic, the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron strain (B.1.1.529) has been identified as a serious concern. After more than two years of COVID-19 pandemic and more than a year of worldwide vaccination efforts, the globe will not be free of COVID-19 variants such as Delta and Omicron variants. According to current statistics, the Omicron variant has more than 30 mutations when contrasted to other VOCs such as Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351), and Delta (B.1.617.2). High numbers of changes, particularly in the spike protein (S-Protein), raise worries about the virus's capacity to resist pre-existing immunity acquired by vaccination or spontaneous infection and antibody-based therapy. The Omicron variant raised international concerns, resuming travel bans and coming up with many questions about its severity, transmissibility, testing, detection, and vaccines efficiency against it.

Additionally, inadequate health care infrastructures and many immunocompromised individuals increase the infection susceptibility. The current status of low vaccination rates will play a significant role in omicron spreading and create a fertile ground for producing new variants. As a result, this article emphasizes the mutational changes and their consequences. In addition, the potential preventing measures have been examined in detail.

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In South Africa, WHO designated the first cases of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (B.1.1.529).

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This variation is notable for having an extremely high number of spike protein mutations.

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Omicron has about 50 mutations, particularly 32 spike protein mutations.

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Omicron considers the most common variant in South Africa as an alternative to Delta.