Estimating and Monitoring Land Surface Phenology in Rangelands: A Review of Progress and Challenges

Modeling climate change impacts and predicting future vulnerability in the Mount Kenya forest ecosystem using remote sensing and machine learning

The Mount Kenya forest ecosystem (MKFE), a crucial biodiversity hotspot and one of Kenya's key water towers, is increasingly threatened by climate change, putting its ecological integrity and vital ecosystem services at risk. Understanding the interactions between climate extremes and forest dynamics is essential for conservation planning, especially in the Mount Kenya Forest Ecosystem (MKFE), where rising temperatures and erratic rainfall are altering vegetation patterns, reducing forest resilience, and threatening both biodiversity and water security. This study integrates remote sensing and machine learning to assess historical vegetation changes and predict areas at risk in the future. Landsat imagery from 2000 to 2020 was used to derive vegetation indices comprising the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), and Bare Soil Index (BSI). Climate variables, including extreme precipitation and temperature indices, were extracted from CHIRPS and ERA5 datasets. Machine learning models, including Random Forest (RF), XGBoost, and Support Vector Machines (SVM), were trained to assess climate-vegetation relationships and predict future vegetation dynamics under the SSP245 climate scenario using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) downscaled projections. The RF model achieved high accuracy (R2 = 0.82, RMSE = 0.15) in predicting the dynamics of vegetation conditions. Model projections show a 49-55% decline in EVI across forest areas by 2040, with the most pronounced losses likely in lower montane zones, which are more sensitive to climate-induced vegetation stress. Results emphasize the critical role of precipitation in sustaining forest health and highlight the urgent need for adaptive management strategies, including afforestation, sustainable land-use planning, and policy-driven conservation efforts. This study provides a scalable framework for modelling climate impacts on forest ecosystems globally and offers actionable insights for policymakers.

Decoupling the response of vegetation dynamics to asymmetric warming over the Qinghai-Tibet plateau from 2001 to 2020

Global land surface air temperature data show that in the past 50 years, the rate of nighttime warming has been much faster than that of daytime, with the minimum daily temperature (Tmin) increasing about 40% faster than the maximum daily temperature (Tmax), resulting in a decreased diurnal temperature difference. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is known as the "roof of the world", where temperatures have risen twice as fast as the global average warming rate in the last few decades. The factors affecting vegetation growth on the QTP are complex and still not fully understood to some extent. Previous studies paid less attention to the explanations of the complicated interactions and pathways between elements that influence vegetation growth, such as climate (especially asymmetric warming) and topography. In this study, we characterized the spatial and temporal trends of vegetation coverage and investigated the response of vegetation dynamics to asymmetric warming and topography in the QTP during 2001-2020 using trend analysis, partial correlation analysis, and partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) analysis. We found that from 2001 to 2020, the entire QTP demonstrated a greening trend in the growing season (April to October) at a rate of 0.0006/a (p < 0.05). The spatial distribution pattern of partial correlation between NDVI and Tmax differed from that of NDVI and Tmin. PLS-SEM results indicated that asymmetric warming (both Tmax and Tmin) had a consistent effect on vegetation development by directly promoting greening in the QTP, with NDVI values being more sensitive to Tmin, while topographic factors, especially elevation, mainly played an indirect role in influencing vegetation growth by affecting climate change. This study offers new insights into how vegetation responds to asymmetric warming and references for local ecological preservation.

Rainfall Variability and Tidal Inundation Influences on Mangrove Greenness in Karimunjawa National Park, Indonesia

Mangroves, which are vulnerable to natural threats and human activities on small islands in the tropics, play an essential role as carbon sinks, helping to mitigate climate change. In this study, we discussed the effect of natural factors on mangrove sustainability by analyzing the impact of rainfall, land surface temperature (LST), and tidal inundation on the greenness of mangroves in Karimunjawa National Park (KNP), Indonesia. We used Sentinel-2 image data to obtain the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference moisture index (NDMI) during the dry season to determine the effect of inundation on mangrove greenness and soil moisture. The tidal inundation area was calculated using topographic data from the KNP and tidal observations from the area adjacent to it. Unmanned autonomous vehicles and topographic data were used to estimate mangrove canopy height. We also calculated mangrove greenness phenology and compared it to rainfall from satellite data from 2019–2021. Results show that the intertidal area is dominated by taller mangroves and has higher NDVI and NDMI values than non-intertidal areas. We also observed that mangroves in intertidal areas are mostly evergreen, and optimum greenness in KNP occurs from February to October, with maximum greenness in July. Cross-correlation analysis suggests that high rainfall affects NDVI, with peak greenness occurring three months after high rainfall. The LST and NDVI cross-correlation showed no time lag. This suggests that LST was not the main factor controlling mangrove greenness, suggesting tides and rainfall influence mangrove greenness. The mangroves are also vulnerable to climate variability and change, which limits rainfall. However, sea-level rise due to climate change might positively impact mangrove greenness.

Characterising the Land Surface Phenology of Middle Eastern Countries Using Moderate Resolution Landsat Data

Global change impacts including climate change, increased CO2 and nitrogen deposition can be determined through a more precise characterisation of Land Surface Phenology (LSP) parameters. In addition, accurate estimation of LSP dates is being increasingly used in applications such as mapping vegetation types, yield forecasting, and irrigation management. However, there has not been any attempt to characterise Middle East vegetation phenology at the fine spatial resolution appropriate for such applications. Remote-sensing based approaches have proved to be a useful tool in such regions since access is restricted in some areas due to security issues and their inter-annual vegetation phenology parameters vary considerably because of high uncertainty in rainfall. This study aims to establish for the first time a comprehensive characterisation of the vegetation phenological characteristics of the major vegetation types in the Middle East at a fine spatial resolution of 30 m using Landsat Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series data over a temporal range of 20 years (2000–2020). Overall, a progressive pattern in phenophases was observed from low to high latitude. The earliest start of the season was concentrated in the central and east of the region associated mainly with grassland and cultivated land, while the significantly delayed end of the season was mainly distributed in northern Turkey and Iran corresponding to the forest, resulting in the prolonged length of the season in the study area. There was a significant positive correlation between LSP parameters and latitude, which indicates a delay in the start of the season of 4.83 days (R2 = 0.86, p < 0.001) and a delay in the end of the season of 6.54 days (R2 = 0.83, p < 0.001) per degree of latitude increase. In addition, we have discussed the advantages of fine resolution LSP parameters over the available coarse datasets and showed how such outputs can improve many applications in the region. This study shows the potential of Landsat data to quantify the LSP of major land cover types in heterogeneous landscapes of the Middle East which enhances our understanding of the spatial-temporal dynamics of vegetation dynamics in arid and semi-arid settings in the world.

Multiple UAV Flights across the Growing Season Can Characterize Fine Scale Phenological Heterogeneity within and among Vegetation Functional Groups

Grasslands and shrublands exhibit pronounced spatial and temporal variability in structure and function with differences in phenology that can be difficult to observe. Unpiloted aerial vehicles (UAVs) can measure vegetation spectral patterns relatively cheaply and repeatably at fine spatial resolution. We tested the ability of UAVs to measure phenological variability within vegetation functional groups and to improve classification accuracy at two sites in Montana, U.S.A. We tested four flight frequencies during the growing season. Classification accuracy based on reference data increased by 5–10% between a single flight and scenarios including all conducted flights. Accuracy increased from 50.6 to 61.4% at the drier site, while at the more mesic/densely vegetated site, we found an increase of 59.0 to 64.4% between a single and multiple flights over the growing season. Peak green-up varied by 2–4 weeks within the scenes, and sparse vegetation classes had only a short detectable window of active phtosynthesis; therefore, a single flight could not capture all vegetation that was active across the growing season. The multi-temporal analyses identified differences in the seasonal timing of green-up and senescence within herbaceous and sagebrush classes. Multiple UAV measurements can identify the fine-scale phenological variability in complex mixed grass/shrub vegetation.

Mapping South America’s Drylands through Remote Sensing—A Review of the Methodological Trends and Current Challenges

The scientific grasp of the distribution and dynamics of land use and land cover (LULC) changes in South America is still limited. This is especially true for the continent’s hyperarid, arid, semiarid, and dry subhumid zones, collectively known as drylands, which are under-represented ecosystems that are highly threatened by climate change and human activity. Maps of LULC in drylands are, thus, essential in order to investigate their vulnerability to both natural and anthropogenic impacts. This paper comprehensively reviewed existing mapping initiatives of South America’s drylands to discuss the main knowledge gaps, as well as central methodological trends and challenges, for advancing our understanding of LULC dynamics in these fragile ecosystems. Our review centered on five essential aspects of remote-sensing-based LULC mapping: scale, datasets, classification techniques, number of classes (legends), and validation protocols. The results indicated that the Landsat sensor dataset was the most frequently used, followed by AVHRR and MODIS, and no studies used recently available high-resolution satellite sensors. Machine learning algorithms emerged as a broadly employed methodology for land cover classification in South America. Still, such advancement in classification methods did not yet reflect in the upsurge of detailed mapping of dryland vegetation types and functional groups. Among the 23 mapping initiatives, the number of LULC classes in their respective legends varied from 6 to 39, with 1 to 14 classes representing drylands. Validation protocols included fieldwork and automatic processes with sampling strategies ranging from solely random to stratified approaches. Finally, we discussed the opportunities and challenges for advancing research on desertification, climate change, fire mapping, and the resilience of dryland populations. By and large, multi-level studies for dryland vegetation mapping are still lacking.

Earth Observation for Phenological Metrics (EO4PM): Temporal Discriminant to Characterize Forest Ecosystems

The study of vegetation phenology has great relevance in many fields since the importance of knowing timing and shifts in periodic plant life cycle events to face the consequences of global changes in issues such as crop production, forest management, ecosystem disturbances, and human health. The availability of high spatial resolution and dense revisit time satellite observations, such as Sentinel-2 satellites, allows high resolution phenological metrics to be estimated, able to provide key information from time series and to discriminate vegetation typologies. This paper presents an automated and transferable procedure that combines validated methodologies based on local curve fitting and local derivatives to exploit full satellite Earth observation time series to produce information about plant phenology. Multivariate statistical analysis is performed for the purpose of demonstrating the capacity of the generated smoothed vegetation curve, temporal statistics, and phenological metrics to serve as temporal discriminants to detect forest ecosystems processes responses to environmental gradients. The results show smoothed vegetation curve and temporal statistics able to highlight seasonal gradient and leaf type characteristics to discriminate forest types, with additional information about forest and leaf productivity provided by temporal statistics analysis. Furthermore, temporal, altitudinal, and latitudinal gradients are obtained from phenological metrics analysis, which also allows to associate temporal gradient with specific phenophases that support forest types distinction. This study highlights the importance of integrated data and methodologies to support the processes of vegetation recognition and monitoring activities.

Empirical Approach for Modelling Tree Phenology in Mixed Forests Using Remote Sensing

Phenological events are good indicators of the effects of climate change, since phenological phases are sensitive to changes in environmental conditions. Although several national phenological networks monitor the phenology of different plant species, direct observations can only be conducted on individual trees, which cannot be easily extended over large and continuous areas. Remote sensing has often been applied to model phenology for large areas, focusing mostly on pure forests in which it is relatively easier to match vegetation indices with ground observations. In mixed forests, phenology modelling from remote sensing is often limited to land surface phenology, which consists of an overall phenology of all tree species present in a pixel. The potential of remote sensing for modelling the phenology of individual tree species in mixed forests remains underexplored. In this study, we applied the seasonal midpoint (SM) method with MODIS GPP to model the start of season (SOS) and the end of season (EOS) of six different tree species in Slovenian mixed forests. First, substitute locations were identified for each combination of observation station and plant species based on similar environmental conditions (aspect, slope, and altitude) and tree species of interest, and used to retrieve the remote sensing information used in the SM method after fitting the best of a Gaussian and two double logistic functions to each year of GPP time series. Then, the best thresholds were identified for SOS and EOS, and the results were validated using cross-validation. The results show clearly that the usual threshold of 0.5 is not best in most cases, especially for estimating the EOS. Despite the difficulty in modelling the phenology of different tree species in a mixed forest using remote sensing, it was possible to estimate SOS and EOS with moderate errors as low as <8 days (Fagus sylvatica and Tilia sp.) and <10 days (Fagus sylvatica and Populus tremula), respectively.