A Forecasting and Prediction Methodology for Improving the Blue Economy Resilience to Climate Change in the Romanian Lower Danube Euroregion

Progress and opportunities in advancing near-term forecasting of freshwater quality

Near-term freshwater forecasts, defined as sub-daily to decadal future predictions of a freshwater variable with quantified uncertainty, are urgently needed to improve water quality management as freshwater ecosystems exhibit greater variability due to global change. Shifting baselines in freshwater ecosystems due to land use and climate change prevent managers from relying on historical averages for predicting future conditions, necessitating near-term forecasts to mitigate freshwater risks to human health and safety (e.g., flash floods, harmful algal blooms) and ecosystem services (e.g., water-related recreation and tourism). To assess the current state of freshwater forecasting and identify opportunities for future progress, we synthesized freshwater forecasting papers published in the past 5 years. We found that freshwater forecasting is currently dominated by near-term forecasts of water quantity and that near-term water quality forecasts are fewer in number and in the early stages of development (i.e., non-operational) despite their potential as important preemptive decision support tools. We contend that more freshwater quality forecasts are critically needed and that near-term water quality forecasting is poised to make substantial advances based on examples of recent progress in forecasting methodology, workflows, and end-user engagement. For example, current water quality forecasting systems can predict water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and algal bloom/toxin events 5 days ahead with reasonable accuracy. Continued progress in freshwater quality forecasting will be greatly accelerated by adapting tools and approaches from freshwater quantity forecasting (e.g., machine learning modeling methods). In addition, future development of effective operational freshwater quality forecasts will require substantive engagement of end users throughout the forecast process, funding, and training opportunities. Looking ahead, near-term forecasting provides a hopeful future for freshwater management in the face of increased variability and risk due to global change, and we encourage the freshwater scientific community to incorporate forecasting approaches in water quality research and management.

Coupling Coordination Degree between the Socioeconomic and Eco-Environmental Benefits of Koktokay Global Geopark in China

The rapid economic growth of geoparks has put pressure on their ecological environments. Therefore, to ensure the sustainable development of geoparks, we must explore the coupling relationship between their socioeconomic benefits (SEBs) and eco-environmental benefits (EEBs). Based on coupling coordination theory and using statistical data from 2005 to 2018, in this study, we aimed to establish an indicator system for evaluating the coupling coordination degree (CCD) between the SEBs and EEBs of the Koktokay Global Geopark in China, which is both theoretically and practically relevant for research on the sustainable development of geoparks. As a result, we found the following: First, the comprehensive development level of the SEBs of the Koktokay Global Geopark showed a fluctuating upward trend during the study period. Second, the comprehensive development level of the EEBs of the geopark remained stable but fluctuated slightly: it declined from 2009 to 2012, affected by the deterioration of the eco-environment, and fell to its lowest point in 2012. By strengthening the protection of the eco-environment of geoparks, the EEBs gradually improved and became stable. Finally, we found that the CCD between the SEBs and EEBs of the Koktokay Global Geopark improved from mildly disordered to basically coordinated, indicating that the CCD is developing toward an increasingly higher level. The purpose of this study was to promote the reasonable development of geotourism while focusing on a sound eco-environment and to provide recommendations for the sustainable development of the Koktokay Global Geopark and a reference for the development of other similar geoparks.

What Can Support Cross-Border Cooperation in the Blue Economy? Lessons from Blue Sector Performance Analysis in Estonia and Finland

Cross-border cooperation creates possibilities for improving the economic performance of the economies of different countries and allows for the efficient use of resources by considering sector-specific conditions for cooperation. The objective of this paper is to provide a methodological framework for analysing the economic performance of selected blue sectors, suggesting additional information for the development of cross-border cooperation in two neighbouring countries: Estonia and Finland. The analysis of the economic performance of the selected blue sectors relies on the Amadeus database for both countries, the implementation of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), and the calculation of partial productivity measures. The results of the study show that, on average, blue sectors report good performance indicators in coastal regions, but there are also some signs of imperfect efficiency. The common pattern of imperfectly efficient blue sectors in both countries is due to an excess of some fixed assets, which convey extra costs for business activities and, to some extent, generate excessive environmental pressures. The special nature of a shared blue economic area between Estonia and Finland stipulates close cross-border cooperation as an important tool to improve the performance of the imperfectly efficient sectors through shared “best practice” operations, technologies, and infrastructures. However, the lack of appropriate cross-border statistical data restricts analytical opportunities and the development of policy recommendations.