Efficacy of Oral Vaccine against Classical Swine Fever in Wild Boar and Estimation of the Disease Dynamics in the Quantitative Approach

Application of machine learning with large-scale data for an effective vaccination against classical swine fever for wild boar in Japan

Classical swine fever has been spreading across the country since its re-emergence in Japan in 2018. Gifu Prefecture has been working diligently to control the disease through the oral vaccine dissemination targeting wild boars. Although vaccines were sprayed at 14,000 locations between 2019 and 2020, vaccine ingestion by wild boars was only confirmed at 30% of the locations. Here, we predicted the vaccine ingestion rate at each point by Random Forest modeling based on vaccine dissemination data and created prediction surfaces for the probability of vaccine ingestion by wild boar using spatial interpolation techniques. Consequently, the distance from the vaccination point to the water source was the most important variable, followed by elevation, season, road density, and slope. The area under the curve, model accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity for model evaluation were 0.760, 0.678, 0.661, and 0.685, respectively. Areas with high probability of wild boar vaccination were predicted in northern, eastern, and western part of Gifu. Leave-One-Out Cross Validation results showed that Kriging approach was more accurate than the Inverse distance weighting method. We emphasize that effective vaccination strategies based on epidemiological data are essential for disease control and that our proposed tool is also applicable for other wildlife diseases.

Development of short hairpin RNA expression vectors targeting the internal ribosomal entry site of the classical swine fever virus genomic RNA

BACKGROUND

Classical swine fever (CSF) is a fatal contagious disease affecting pigs caused by classical swine fever virus (CSFV). The disease can be transmitted by pigs and wild boars, and it is difficult to prevent and control. To obtain necessary information to establish the CSFV resistant animals in a future study, we designed lentiviral vector-delivered short hairpin RNAs (shRNAs) targeting the conserved domain III of the internal ribosomal entry site (IRES) of the CSFV genomic RNA.

RESULTS

First, we confirmed the effects of siRNAs on CSFV-IRES activity. We observed significant inhibition of CSFV-IRES activity by si42 (domain IIIa), si107 (domain IIIc), and si198 (domain IIIf) in SK-L cells and si56 (domain IIIb), si142 (domain IIId1) and si198 in HEK293 cells without affecting the amount of luciferase RNA. Next, we constructed lentiviral vectors expressing shRNA based on siRNA sequences. Treatment with shRNA-expressing lentivirus was examined at 7 and 14 days post infection in SK-L cells and HEK293 cells, and CSFV-IRES was significantly suppressed at 14 days (sh42) post infection in HEK293 cells without significant cytotoxicity. Next, we examined the silencing effect of siRNA on CSFV replicon RNA and observed a significant effect by si198 after 2 days of treatment and by shRNA-expressing lentivirus (sh56, sh142, and sh198) infection after 14 days of treatment. Treatment of sh198-expressing lentivirus significantly suppressed CSFV infection at 3 days after infection.

CONCLUSION

The IRES targeting sh198 expressing lentivirus vector can be a candidate tool for CSFV infection control.

Development of an Effective Oral Vaccine Dissemination Strategy against Classical Swine Fever for Wild Boar in Gifu Prefecture, Japan

In September 2018, classical swine fever (CSF) reemerged in Japan after more than a quarter of a century. After the first notification on a pig farm, wild boars positive for CSF were found continuously in the surrounding area. Gifu was the first prefecture in Japan to disseminate oral vaccines to wild boars in March 2019, with vaccines spread to approximately 14,000 sites between 2019 and 2020. While these diligent measures seemed to have shown some effectiveness, several vaccine spray sites remained without wild boar emergence. Based on the vaccine dissemination records from these periods, this study conducted a statistical analysis to propose more effective vaccine dissemination sites. First, a generalized linear mixed model was used to identify factors correlated with wild boar emergence. Then, two spatial interpolation methods, inverse distance weighted (IDW) and Kriging, were adopted to create a probability map of wild boar emergence for the entire Gifu Prefecture. The analysis showed a positive correlation between wild boar emergence and the appearance of raccoons, raccoon dogs, and crows as well as road density and wild boar distribution index. In particular, raccoon (OR: 1.83, 95%CI: 1.25–2.68, $p$  < 0.001), raccoon dog (OR: 1.81, 95%CI: 1.25–2.66, $p$  < 0.001), and medium level road density (OR: 1.56, 95%CI: 1.04–2.39, $p$  = 0.04) were strongly correlated with wild boar emergence. The spatial interpolation approach resulted in better prediction accuracy for the Kriging method than for IDW by the root mean square error, but both approaches identified a high wild boar appearance probability area in southeastern Gifu and a low appearance probability area in central Gifu. Here we have demonstrated a tool to effectively disperse oral vaccine to wildlife.

Measuring impact of vaccination among wildlife: The case of bait vaccine campaigns for classical swine fever epidemic among wild boar in Japan

Understanding the impact of vaccination in a host population is essential to control infectious diseases. However, the impact of bait vaccination against wildlife diseases is difficult to evaluate. The vaccination history of host animals is generally not observable in wildlife, and it is difficult to distinguish immunity by vaccination from that caused by disease infection. For these reasons, the impact of bait vaccination against classical swine fever (CSF) in wild boar inhabiting Japan has not been evaluated accurately. In this study, we aimed to estimate the impact of the bait vaccination campaign by modelling the dynamics of CSF and the vaccination process among a Japanese wild boar population. The model was designed to estimate the impact of bait vaccination despite lack of data regarding the demography and movement of wild boar. Using our model, we solved the theoretical relationship between the impact of vaccination, the time-series change in the proportion of infected wild boar, and that of immunised wild boar. Using this derived relationship, the increase in antibody prevalence against CSF because of vaccine campaigns in 2019 was estimated to be 12.1 percentage points (95% confidence interval: 7.8–16.5). Referring to previous reports on the basic reproduction number (R₀) of CSF in wild boar living outside Japan, the amount of vaccine distribution required for CSF elimination by reducing the effective reproduction number under unity was also estimated. An approximate 1.6 (when R₀ = 1.5, target vaccination coverage is 33.3% of total population) to 2.9 (when R₀ = 2.5, target vaccination coverage is 60.0% of total population) times larger amount of vaccine distribution would be required than the total amount of vaccine distribution in four vaccination campaigns in 2019.

Vaccination of wildlife is important to control infectious diseases in animals. However, the impact of common vaccination of wildlife, bait vaccination, is difficult to evaluate owing to difficulty in obtaining the vaccination history at the individual level. Mathematical modelling can estimate the impact of vaccination; however, the demography and movement of hosts are required to describe disease dynamics. In this study, we aimed to estimate the impact of bait vaccination by modelling the dynamics of classical swine fever (CSF) and the vaccination among Japanese wild boar. The model was designed to estimate the impact of bait vaccination despite lack of data regarding the demography and movement of wild boar. Using our model, the increase in antibody prevalence because of vaccination in 2019 was estimated to be 12 percentage points. Furthermore, we estimated the amount of vaccine distribution required for CSF elimination by reducing the effective reproduction number under unity. Referring to previous reports on the basic reproduction number of CSF in wild boar living outside Japan, it was estimated that an approximate 1.6 to 2.9 times larger amount of vaccine distribution would be required than the total amount of vaccine distribution in four vaccination campaigns in 2019.

Efficient oral vaccination program against classical swine fever in wild boar population

Classical swine fever is a disease that infects wild boars and pigs and had a significant negative economic impact on the swine industry. Oral vaccination is an effective method for controlling classical swine fever. However, information on oral vaccination program has been limited, and its efficiency has not been clarified in Japan. The purpose of this study was to determine the seasonal variation in factors affecting the ingestion of oral vaccines by wild boars. The Gifu Prefecture oral vaccination program was initiated in March 2019, and by February 2021, six seasonal programs had been conducted. We investigated the relationship between the ingestion of oral vaccines by wild boar and pre-baiting, vaccination event, environmental and topographical factors in six vaccination events in three seasonal programs (summer 2019, winter 2019-2020, and spring 2020). This study showed that pre-baiting and the repeated vaccination events were more important factors for the ingestion of oral vaccines by wild boars than topographical and land use factors. Thus, it is a possibility that habitat selection of wild boars is irrelevant in increasing the feeding rate of wild boars on oral vaccines. Consequently, wildlife managers should not only conduct pre-baiting and repeated vaccination events, but also identify areas where wild boars are more abundant immediately prior to oral vaccination programs. To increase the effectiveness of vaccination, it is important for wildlife managers to first implement estimating wild boar density in their habitat areas, followed by efficient oral vaccination programs depending on their densities. Thereafter, they should specifically consider the influence of ingestion by other species and differences in feeding rates by age class.