Meta-analysis of routine blood tests as predictors of mortality in COPD

Association of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and CRP with spirometry in COPD patients in North India

Background

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who have high serum levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), a marker of low-grade systemic inflammation, exhibit reduced lung functions and a worse prognosis. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (N/L ratio, NLR), obtained from a complete blood count, is an inexpensive and easily accessible inflammation marker. The NLR has proven useful in assessing the risk for patients with various cardiovascular conditions, different types of solid tumours, sepsis, and infectious diseases. Research indicates that COPD patients have significantly higher NLR values compared to healthy controls of the same age and sex, with these values increasing even more during acute COPD exacerbations compared to stable periods. Hence, identifying non-invasive and cost-effective tools to assess the severity of COPD in the PHC/CHC level would be beneficial as an early intervention.

Aim

To study the relationship between N/L ratio and CRP levels and spirometry in COPD patients.

Settings and Study Design

Observational cross-sectional study.

Methods and Material

A total of 100 patients of an age > 40 years with a confirmed diagnosis of COPD according to GOLD (Global Initiative COPD patients) criteria were selected. With an informed consent, blood sample collection for N/L ratio and CRP along with spirometry was performed in all the patients.

Statistical Analysis Used

SPSS software with Student t-test, Chi-square t-test, ANOVA, and Spearman correlation with 95% CI is used. P <0.05 is considered significant.

Results

NLR was observed to be higher in the moderate grade of COPD patients. All the patients were observed with an abnormal (>5 mg/L) CRP level. FEV1, FVC%, FEV1/FVC%, N/L ratio, and CRP were significantly (P < 0.0001*) associated with severity COPD according to GOLD criteria.

Conclusions

This study concludes that the FEV1, FVC, and FEV1/FVC ratio were lower in severe COPD patients, and it also reveals that individuals with severe COPD have elevated levels of serum CRP and N/L ratio, which correlates with the severity of COPD. Elevated N/L ratio and CRP level may be used as non invasive predictors and cost-effective tools for COPD patients at the Primary health centre level for screening of the severity of COPD patients.

A Low Eosinophil to Platelet Ratio as a Worse Prognostic Index for Emergency Department Attendance in Acute Exacerbation of COPD

Purpose

Identifying prognosis for patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is challenging. Eosinophils and platelet are involved in the development of COPD, which may predict adverse events. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of the eosinophil to platelet ratio (EPR) in predicting adverse events in patients with AECOPD who visited the emergency department.

Patients and Methods

The records of patients with AECOPD treated at Dalian Municipal Friendship Hospital from January 2018 to December 2020 were retrospectively reviewed. The relationship between the clinical characteristics and EPR, as cut-off value of 0.755, was evaluated.

Results

A total of 508 patients with an AECOPD (316 male, 192 female) were included. An optimal AUC cutoff of 0.755 for the EPR segregated the patients into 2 groups with significantly different mortality (25.3% vs 5.5%, P < 0.001). The same mortality risk with lower EPR was observed among the patients with emergency room attendance (35.6% vs 11.1%, P < 0.001). A model including EPR <0.755, exacerbation history, PaO2 <60mmHg, PaCO2 >50 mm Hg, hypoalbuminemia and age ≥80 was developed to predict death risk and showed good performance.

Conclusion

During severe COPD exacerbation, an EPR < 0.755 preceding therapy can predict worse outcomes in patients with an AECOPD.

Prognostic Value of Serum Cholinesterase Levels for In-Hospital Mortality among Patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Cholinesterase (ChE) is associated with the pathogenesis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), including chronic airway inflammation and oxidation/antioxidant imbalance. However, the relationship between serum ChE levels and survival outcomes of patients hospitalized with acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) is unknown. In this retrospective single-center study, we investigated the ability of the serum ChE level to predict in-hospital death in patients hospitalized with AECOPD. The clinicopathological data, including serum ChE levels as well as clinical and biochemical indicators were extracted for 477 patients from the hospital records and analyzed. Our results demonstrated that AECOPD patients with lower serum ChE levels were associated with increased mortality, frequent hospitalization due to acute exacerbations (AE) in the past year, and longer hospital stay. The optimal cutoff value for the serum ChE level was 4323 U/L. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) values for predicting in-hospital mortality based on the serum ChE level was 0.79 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.72-0.85). Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that serum ChE level ≤ 4323 U/L (odds ratio (OR) 9.09, 95% CI 3.43-28.3, p < 0.001), age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (aCCI), and the number of hospitalizations due to AE in the past year were independent risk factors for predicting the in-hospital mortality of AECOPD patients. In conclusion, our study demonstrated that low serum ChE levels were associated with significantly higher in-hospital mortality rates of patients hospitalized with AECOPD. Therefore, serum ChE level is a promising prognostic predictor of hospitalized AECOPD patients.

The Association between Serum Albumin and Post-Operative Outcomes among Patients Undergoing Common Surgical Procedures: An Analysis of a Multi-Specialty Surgical Cohort from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP)

While studies have demonstrated an association between preoperative hypoalbuminemia and adverse clinical outcomes, the optimal serum albumin threshold for risk-stratification in the broader surgical population remains poorly defined. We sought define the optimal threshold of preoperative serum albumin concentration for risk-stratification of adverse post-operative outcomes. Using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Database, we identified 842,672 patients that had undergone a common surgical procedure in one of eight surgical specialties. An optimal serum albumin concentration threshold for risk-stratification was determined using receiver-operating characteristic analysis. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the odds of adverse surgical events; a priori defined subgroup analyses were performed. A serum albumin threshold of 3.4 g/dL optimally predicted adverse surgical outcomes in the broader cohort. After multivariable analysis, patients with hypoalbuminemia had increased odds of death within 30 days of surgery (odds ratio [OR] 2.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.94–2.08). Hypoalbuminemia was associated with greater odds of primary adverse events among patients with disseminated cancer (OR 2.03, 95% CI 1.88–2.20) compared to patients without disseminated cancer (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.44–1.51). The standard clinical threshold for hypoalbuminemia is the optimal threshold for preoperative risk assessment.

C-reactive Protein as a Predictor of Severity in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: An Experience From a Tertiary Care Hospital

Background

In this study, we aimed to determine the frequency of raised C-reactive protein (CRP) levels and their association with the severity of the disease.

Methodology

This descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted at the Shifa International Hospital, Islamabad, from June 2018 to December 2018 in the Department of Medicine. Patients attending the respiratory outpatient clinic in the Department of Medicine, Shifa International Hospital, Islamabad, with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, meeting the sample selection criteria, were included in our study. A total of 104 patients were enrolled. All patients had plasma CRP levels measured, and forced expiratory volume in one second to forced vital capacity ratio was calculated to quantify the severity of the disease. We used SPSS version 26.0 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY, USA) for data analysis.

Results

All patients with levels of hs-CRP greater than 3 mg/L had stage 3 or 4 chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) according to Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) criteria, which accounted for 16.4% of the sample, while 81.7% of all patients suffering from COPD had levels greater than 1 mg/L. Only a small minority of patients, 1.9%, had normal high-sensitivity (hs)-CRP levels. The relationship between high levels of hs-CRP levels and advanced stages of COPD was statistically significant (p < 0.001).

Conclusions

The severity of COPD is directly related to the raised CRP levels, which can help in identifying these patients and managing them subsequently. It can be a useful indicator and a basis for high suspicion index and close follow-up for patients with high levels.

Use of Laboratory Tests and Their Prognostic Value in Patients with Stable Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is not merely a lung disease as the name indicates. Patients with COPD experience associated complications with systemic inflammation, heart strain, muscle wasting, poor functional performance, and psychological issues. An assessment of these patients based only on lung function tests or functional capacity would be inadequate. Many studies have reported the significance and prognostic value of several laboratory tests. Troponin, C-reactive protein (CRP), hemoglobin, and carbon dioxide are older tests but compared with the newly developed tests, they are relatively inexpensive to measure and widely available. This article will review laboratory tests used for COPD and discuss their prognostic value. The laboratory tests that can identify high-risk patients will be discussed. We will explore the role of these tests in clinical practice.

Diagnosis and prediction of COVID-19 severity: can biochemical tests and machine learning be used as prognostic indicators?

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to implement and evaluate machine learning based-models to predict COVID-19' diagnosis and disease severity.

METHODS

COVID-19 test samples (positive or negative results) from patients who attended a single hospital were evaluated. Patients diagnosed with COVID-19 were categorised according to the severity of the disease. Data were submitted to exploratory analysis (principal component analysis, PCA) to detect outlier samples, recognise patterns, and identify important variables. Based on patients' laboratory tests results, machine learning models were implemented to predict disease positivity and severity. Artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees (DT), partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA), and K nearest neighbour algorithm (KNN) models were used. The four models were validated based on the accuracy (area under the ROC curve).

RESULTS

The first subset of data had 5,643 patient samples (5,086 negatives and 557 positives for COVID-19). The second subset included 557 COVID-19 positive patients. The ANN, DT, PLS-DA, and KNN models allowed the classification of negative and positive samples with >84% accuracy. It was also possible to classify patients with severe and non-severe disease with an accuracy >86%. The following were associated with the prediction of COVID-19 diagnosis and severity: hyperferritinaemia, hypocalcaemia, pulmonary hypoxia, hypoxemia, metabolic and respiratory acidosis, low urinary pH, and high levels of lactate dehydrogenase.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis shows that all the models could assist in the diagnosis and prediction of COVID-19 severity.

Anemia and iron metabolism in COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Iron metabolism and anemia may play an important role in multiple organ dysfunction syndrome in Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate biomarkers of anemia and iron metabolism (hemoglobin, ferritin, transferrin, soluble transferrin receptor, hepcidin, haptoglobin, unsaturated iron-binding capacity, erythropoietin, free erythrocyte protoporphyrine, and erythrocyte indices) in patients diagnosed with COVID-19, and explored their prognostic value. Six bibliographic databases were searched up to August 3rd 2020. We included 189 unique studies, with data from 57,563 COVID-19 patients. Pooled mean hemoglobin and ferritin levels in COVID-19 patients across all ages were 129.7 g/L (95% Confidence Interval (CI), 128.51; 130.88) and 777.33 ng/mL (95% CI, 701.33; 852.77), respectively. Hemoglobin levels were lower with older age, higher percentage of subjects with diabetes, hypertension and overall comorbidities, and admitted to intensive care. Ferritin level increased with older age, increasing proportion of hypertensive study participants, and increasing proportion of mortality. Compared to moderate cases, severe COVID-19 cases had lower hemoglobin [weighted mean difference (WMD), − 4.08 g/L (95% CI − 5.12; − 3.05)] and red blood cell count [WMD, − 0.16 × 10¹² /L (95% CI − 0.31; − 0.014)], and higher ferritin [WMD, − 473.25 ng/mL (95% CI 382.52; 563.98)] and red cell distribution width [WMD, 1.82% (95% CI 0.10; 3.55)]. A significant difference in mean ferritin levels of 606.37 ng/mL (95% CI 461.86; 750.88) was found between survivors and non-survivors, but not in hemoglobin levels. Future studies should explore the impact of iron metabolism and anemia in the pathophysiology, prognosis, and treatment of COVID-19.

Anemia and iron metabolism in COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Iron metabolism and anemia may play an important role in multiple organ dysfunction syndrome in Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate biomarkers of anemia and iron metabolism (hemoglobin, ferritin, transferrin, soluble transferrin receptor, hepcidin, haptoglobin, unsaturated iron-binding capacity, erythropoietin, free erythrocyte protoporphyrine, and erythrocyte indices) in patients diagnosed with COVID-19, and explored their prognostic value. Six bibliographic databases were searched up to August 3rd 2020. We included 189 unique studies, with data from 57,563 COVID-19 patients. Pooled mean hemoglobin and ferritin levels in COVID-19 patients across all ages were 129.7 g/L (95% Confidence Interval (CI), 128.51; 130.88) and 777.33 ng/mL (95% CI, 701.33; 852.77), respectively. Hemoglobin levels were lower with older age, higher percentage of subjects with diabetes, hypertension and overall comorbidities, and admitted to intensive care. Ferritin level increased with older age, increasing proportion of hypertensive study participants, and increasing proportion of mortality. Compared to moderate cases, severe COVID-19 cases had lower hemoglobin [weighted mean difference (WMD), - 4.08 g/L (95% CI - 5.12; - 3.05)] and red blood cell count [WMD, - 0.16 × 10¹² /L (95% CI - 0.31; - 0.014)], and higher ferritin [WMD, - 473.25 ng/mL (95% CI 382.52; 563.98)] and red cell distribution width [WMD, 1.82% (95% CI 0.10; 3.55)]. A significant difference in mean ferritin levels of 606.37 ng/mL (95% CI 461.86; 750.88) was found between survivors and non-survivors, but not in hemoglobin levels. Future studies should explore the impact of iron metabolism and anemia in the pathophysiology, prognosis, and treatment of COVID-19.

High suPAR and Low Blood Eosinophil Count are Risk Factors for Hospital Readmission and Mortality in Patients with COPD

Introduction

The biomarker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) has been associated with increased mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), while elevated blood eosinophils have been associated with better survival. We hypothesized that suPAR and blood eosinophil count are independent risk factors for readmission and mortality after an acute admission in patients with COPD.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study comprised 4022 patients with prevalent COPD acutely admitted to Hvidovre Hospital, Denmark. Irrespective of cause of admission, suPAR and blood eosinophils were measured, and patients were followed up to 365 days. Associations with 365-day respiratory readmission, all-cause readmission and all-cause mortality were investigated by Cox regression analyses adjusted for age, sex, Charlson score and C-reactive protein.

Results

suPAR was significantly elevated in patients who later experienced readmission or died. At 365 days, hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause readmission and mortality reached 1.61 (95% CI 1.40–1.85; p<0.0001) and 3.40 (95% CI 2.64–4.39; p<0.0001), respectively, for COPD patients in the fourth suPAR quartile compared to patients in the first suPAR quartile. High blood eosinophils (>300 cells/μL) were associated with lower risk of mortality (HR 0.49, 95% CI 0.39–0.62; p<0.0001) compared with patients with <150 cells/μL. When stratifying patients by suPAR quartiles and blood eosinophil counts, the highest relative mortality rate was found in patients belonging to both the fourth suPAR quartile and the low blood eosinophil (<150 cells/μL) group.

Conclusion

In this cohort of COPD patients acutely admitted to a hospital, elevated suPAR concentrations were associated with both higher risk of all-cause readmission and mortality, whereas higher blood eosinophil count was associated with lower risk of mortality.

COPD: The Annual Cost-Of-Illness during the Last Two Decades in Italy, and Its Mortality Predictivity Power

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a progressive pathological condition characterized by a huge epidemiological and socioeconomic impact worldwide. In Italy, the actual annual cost of COPD was assessed for the first time in 2002: the mean cost per patient per year was €1801 and ranged from €1500 to €3912, depending on COPD severity. In 2008, the mean annual cost per patient was €2723.7, ranging from €1830.6 in mild COPD up to €5451.7 in severe COPD. In 2015, it was €3291, which is 20.8% and 82.7% higher compared to the costs estimated in 2008 and 2002, respectively. In all these studies, the major cost component was direct costs, in particular hospitalization costs due to exacerbations, which corresponded to 59.9% of the total cost and 67.2% of direct costs, respectively. When the annual healthcare expenditure per patient is related to the length of survival by means of the PRO-BODE Index (PBI, which is the implementation of the well-known BODE Index with costs due to annual exacerbations and/or hospitalizations), the annual cost of care proved much more strictly and inversely proportional to patients' survival at three years, with the highest regression coefficient (r = -0.58) of all the multidimensional indices presently available, including the BODE Index (r = -021). In Italy, even though tobacco smoking has progressively declined by up to 21% in the general population, the economic impact of COPD has shown relentless progression over the last two decades, confirming that the present national health system organization is still insufficient for facing the issue of chronic diseases, in particular COPD, effectively. The periodic assessment of costs is an effective instrument for care providers in predicting COPD mortality, and for decision makers for updating and planning their social, economic, and political strategies.

Changes in biomarkers of cardiac dysfunction during exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND

Cardiac dysfunction is associated with a higher mortality in exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). It is unknown how the heart responds to treatment of COPD exacerbations. We followed cardiac biomarker levels during hospital admissions for exacerbations of COPD and hypothesised that these biochemical markers of cardiac dysfunction might be affected the severity and treatment of exacerbations of COPD.

METHODS

N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and troponin T were measured at admission, 12 h, 72 h, and clinical stability in 176 patients. In a second cohort (n = 93), associations between blood salbutamol concentrations and biomarker changes at 12 h were analysed.

RESULTS

NT-proBNP increased from a geometric mean of 43 pmol/L at admission to 56 pmol/L at 12 h (p < 0.001), 53 pmol/L at 72 h (p = 0.045), and decreased to 25 pmol/L (p < 0.001) at stability. Troponin T levels decreased at 12 h (p < 0.001), but 15/174 (9%) patients had a clinically significant rise. Nebulised bronchodilator treatment and blood salbutamol concentrations were associated with greater increases in NT-proBNP rise at 12 h independently of baseline COPD or exacerbation severity and other treatments (p < 0.05). Nebulised bronchodilator and blood salbutamol concentrations also predicted rises in troponin T in univariate analyses (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

NT-proBNP continues to rise after admission to hospital for COPD exacerbations and a minority of patients have clinically significant rises in cardiac troponins. These rises were associated with nebulised beta₂-agonist treatment. These findings suggest that high doses of beta₂-agonists may exacerbate cardiac dysfunction in COPD.

Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor predicts mortality in exacerbated COPD

Background

The inflammatory biomarker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is elevated in severe acute and chronic medical conditions and has been associated with short-term mortality. The role of suPAR in predicting risk of death following an acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) has never been studied. We hypothesized that increased suPAR is an independent predictor of short-term mortality in patients admitted to hospital with COPD or acute respiratory failure.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study from a university hospital in the Capital Region of Denmark included 2838 acutely admitted medical patients with COPD as primary (AECOPD) or secondary diagnosis, who had plasma suPAR measured at the time of admission between November 18th, 2013 to September 30th, 2015 and followed until December 31st, 2015. Primary outcomes were 30- and 90-days all-cause mortality. Association of suPAR and mortality was investigated by Cox regression analyses adjusted for age, sex, CRP values and Charlson comorbidity index.

Results

For patients with AECOPD or underlying COPD, median suPAR levels were significantly higher among patients who died within 30 days compared with those who survived (5.7 ng/ml (IQR 3.8–8.1) vs. 3.6 ng/ml (2.7–5.1), P < 0.0001). Increasing suPAR levels independently predicted 30-day mortality in patients with COPD with a hazard ratio of 2.0 (95% CI 1.7–2.4) but not respiratory failure.

Conclusions

In this large group of acutely admitted patients with COPD, elevated suPAR levels were associated with increased risk of mortality. The study supports the value of suPAR as a marker of poor prognosis.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12931-018-0803-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

C-reactive protein level predicts mortality in COPD: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The prognostic role of baseline C-reactive protein (CRP) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is controversial. In order to clarify this issue, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the predictive effect of baseline CRP level in COPD patients. 15 eligible articles focusing on late mortality in COPD were included in our study. We performed a random-effects meta-analysis, and assessed heterogeneity and publication bias. We pooled hazard ratio (HR) estimates and their 95% confidence intervals on mortality for the comparison between the study-specific highest category of CRP level versus the lowest category. In overall analysis, elevated baseline CRP levels were significantly associated with higher mortality (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.32-1.77, I²=68.7%, p<0.001). Similar results were observed across subgroups. However, higher mortality risk was reported in studies using a cut-off value of 3 mg·L^-1 (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.12-2.30) and in those enrolling an Asiatic population (HR 3.51, 95% CI 1.69-7.31). Our analysis indicates that baseline high CRP level is significantly associated with higher late mortality in patients with COPD. Further prospective controlled studies are needed to confirm these data.

Prognostic role of D-dimer for in-hospital and 1-year mortality in exacerbations of COPD

Background and objective

Serum D-dimer is elevated in respiratory disease. The objective of our study was to investigate the effect of D-dimer on in-hospital and 1-year mortality after acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD).

Methods

Upon admission, we measured 343 AECOPD patients’ serum D-dimer levels and arterial blood gas analysis, and recorded their clinical characteristics. The level of D-dimer that discriminated survivors and non-survivors was determined using a receiver operator curve (ROC). The risk factors for in-hospital mortality were identified through univariate analysis and multiple logistic regression analyses. To evaluate the predictive role of D-dimer for 1-year mortality, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed.

Results

In all, 28 patients died, and 315 patients survived in the in-hospital period. The group of dead patients had lower pH levels (7.35±0.11 vs 7.39±0.05, P<0.0001), higher D-dimer, arterial carbon dioxide tension (PaCO₂), C-reactive protein (CRP), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) levels (D-dimer 2,244.9±2,310.7 vs 768.2±1,078.4 µg/L, P<0.0001; PaCO₂: 58.8±29.7 vs 46.1±27.0 mmHg, P=0.018; CRP: 81.5±66, P=0.001; BUN: 10.20±6.87 vs 6.15±3.15 mmol/L, P<0.0001), and lower hemoglobin levels (118.6±29.4 vs 128.3±18.2 g/L, P=0.001). The areas under the ROC curves of D-dimer for in-hospital death were 0.748 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.641–0.854). D-dimer ≥985 ng/L was a risk factor for in-hospital mortality (relative risk =6.51; 95% CI 3.06–13.83). Multivariate logistic regression analysis also showed that D-dimer ≥985 ng/L and heart failure were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality. Both univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that D-dimer ≥985 ng/L was an independent risk factor for 1-year death (hazard ratio (HR) 3.48, 95% CI 2.07–5.85 for the univariate analysis; and HR 1.96, 95% CI 1.05–3.65 for the multivariate analysis).

Conclusion

D-dimer was a strong and independent risk factor for in-hospital and 1-year death for AECOPD patients.

The BODECOST Index (BCI): a composite index for assessing the impact of COPD in real life

Background

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a progressive condition which is characterized by a dramatic socio-economic impact.

Several indices were extensively investigated in order to asses the mortality risk in COPD, but the utilization of health care resources was never included in calculations. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of annual cost of care on COPD mortality at three years, and to develop a comprehensive index for easy calculation of mortality risk in real life.

Methods

COPD patients were anonymously and automatically selected from the local institutional Data Base. Selection criteria were: COPD diagnosis; both genders; age ≥ 40 years; availability of at least one complete clinical record/year, including history; clinical signs; complete lung function, therapeutic strategy, health BODE index; Charlson Comorbidity Index, and outcomes, collected at the first visit, and over the following 3-years. At the first visit, the health annual cost of care was calculated in each patient for the previous 12 months, and the survival rate was also measured over the following 3 years. The hospitalization and the exacerbation rate were implemented to the BODE index and the novel index thus obtained was called BODECOST index (BCI), ranging from 0 to 10 points. The mean cost for each BCI step was calculated and then compared to the corresponding patients’ survival duration.

Parametrical, non parametrical tests, and linear regression were used; p < 0.05 was accepted as the lower limit of significance.

Results

At the first visit, the selected 275 patients were well matched for all variables by gender. The overall mortality over the 3 year survey was 40.4 % (n = 111/275). When compared to that of BODE index (r = 0.22), the total annual cost of care and the number of exacerbations showed the highest regression value vs the survival time (r = 0.58 and r = 0.44, respectively). BCI score proved strictly proportional to both the cost of care and the survival time in our sample of COPD patients.

Discussion

BCI takes origin from the implementation of the BODE index with the two main components of the annual cost of care, such as the number of hospitalizations and of exacerbations occurring yearly in COPD patients, and their corresponding economic impact. In other words, higher the BCI score, shorter the survival and higher the cost, these trends being strictly linked.

Conclusions

BCI is a novel composite index which helps in predicting the impact of COPD at 3 years in real life, both in terms of patients’ survival and of COPD economic burden.