Assessment of scoring systems for acute-on-chronic liver failure at predicting short-term mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of intensive care unit patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Liver cirrhosis patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) have a high mortality rate.

AIM

To establish and validate a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of ICU patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

We extracted demographic, etiological, vital sign, laboratory test, comorbidity, complication, treatment, and severity score data of liver cirrhosis patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) and electronic ICU (eICU) collaborative research database (eICU-CRD). Predictor selection and model building were based on the MIMIC-IV dataset. The variables selected through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator analysis were further screened through multivariate regression analysis to obtain final predictors. The final predictors were included in the multivariate logistic regression model, which was used to construct a nomogram. Finally, we conducted external validation using the eICU-CRD. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), decision curve, and calibration curve were used to assess the efficacy of the models.

RESULTS

Risk factors, including the mean respiratory rate, mean systolic blood pressure, mean heart rate, white blood cells, international normalized ratio, total bilirubin, age, invasive ventilation, vasopressor use, maximum stage of acute kidney injury, and sequential organ failure assessment score, were included in the multivariate logistic regression. The model achieved AUCs of 0.864 and 0.808 in the MIMIC-IV and eICU-CRD databases, respectively. The calibration curve also confirmed the predictive ability of the model, while the decision curve confirmed its clinical value.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram has high accuracy in predicting in-hospital mortality. Improving the included predictors may help improve the prognosis of patients.

Navigating Cirrhosis: A Comprehensive Review of Liver Scoring Systems for Diagnosis and Prognosis

This comprehensive review navigates the landscape of liver scoring systems for the diagnosis and prognosis of cirrhosis. Cirrhosis, a chronic and progressive liver disease, presents significant challenges in its diagnosis and management. The review begins by defining and providing an overview of cirrhosis, emphasizing its clinical implications. Highlighting the significance of liver scoring systems, including the Child-Pugh score, end-stage liver disease, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, the study explores their role in assessing liver dysfunction severity and predicting outcomes. A meticulous analysis identifies the strengths and limitations of these scoring systems, offering valuable insights for clinicians. The recommendations emphasize incorporating these tools into routine clinical practice for early intervention and personalized treatment plans. Interdisciplinary collaboration is underscored as crucial for a holistic approach to cirrhosis management. The conclusion calls for future research to refine existing scoring systems, explore emerging biomarkers and imaging techniques, and conduct prospective studies to enhance precision. By embracing these recommendations, the medical community can advance the understanding and management of cirrhosis, ultimately improving patient outcomes and revolutionizing liver disease approaches.

ACG Clinical Guideline: Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease

ABSTRACT

Alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) is the most common cause of advanced hepatic disease and frequent indication for liver transplantation worldwide. With harmful alcohol use as the primary risk factor, increasing alcohol use over the past decade has resulted in rapid growth of the ALD-related healthcare burden. The spectrum of ALD ranges from early asymptomatic liver injury to advanced disease with decompensation and portal hypertension. Compared with those with other etiologies of liver disease, patients with ALD progress faster and more often present at an advanced stage. A unique phenotype of advanced disease is alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) presenting with rapid onset or worsening of jaundice, and acute on chronic liver failure in severe forms conveying a 1-month mortality risk of 20%-50%. The model for end stage disease score is the most accurate score to stratify AH severity (>20 defined as severe disease). Corticosteroids are currently the only available therapeutic with proven efficacy for patients with severe AH, providing survival benefit at 1 month in 50%-60% of patients. Abstinence of alcohol use, a crucial determinant of long-term outcomes, is challenging to achieve in ALD patients with concurrent alcohol use disorder (AUD). As patients with ALD are rarely treated for AUD, strategies are needed to overcome barriers to AUD treatment in patients with ALD and to promote a multidisciplinary integrated care model with hepatology, addiction medicine providers, and social workers to comprehensively manage the dual pathologies of liver disease and of AUD. Liver transplantation, a definitive treatment option in patients with advanced cirrhosis, should be considered in selected patients with AH, who are unresponsive to medical therapy and have a low risk of relapse to posttransplant alcohol use. Level of evidence and strength of recommendations were evaluated using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations system. This guideline was developed under the American College of Gastroenterology Practice Parameters Committee.

Review article: Emerging and current management of acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a clinically and pathophysiologically distinct condition from acutely decompensated cirrhosis and is characterised by systemic inflammation, extrahepatic organ failure, and high short-term mortality.

AIMS

To provide a narrative review of the diagnostic criteria, prognosis, epidemiology, and general management principles of ACLF. Four specific interventions that are explored in detail are intravenous albumin, extracorporeal liver assist devices, granulocyte-colony stimulating factor, and liver transplantation.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and Cochrane databases for articles published up to July 2023.

RESULTS

Approximately 35% of hospital inpatients with decompensated cirrhosis have ACLF. There is significant heterogeneity in the criteria used to diagnose ACLF; different definitions identify different phenotypes with varying mortality. Criteria established by the European Association for the Study of the Liver were developed in prospective patient cohorts and are, to-date, the most well validated internationally. Systemic haemodynamic instability, renal dysfunction, coagulopathy, neurological dysfunction, and respiratory failure are key considerations when managing ACLF in the intensive care unit. Apart from liver transplantation, there are no accepted evidence-based treatments for ACLF, but several different approaches are under investigation.

CONCLUSION

The recognition of ACLF as a distinct entity from acutely decompensated cirrhosis has allowed for better patient stratification in clinical settings, facilitating earlier engagement with the intensive care unit and liver transplantation teams. Research priorities over the next decade should focus on exploring novel treatment strategies with a particular focus on which, when, and how patients with ACLF should be treated.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure is independently associated with higher mortality for cirrhotic patients with acute esophageal variceal hemorrhage: Retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Acute esophageal variceal hemorrhage (AEVH) is a common complication of cirrhosis and might precipitate multi-organ failure, causing acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

AIM

To analyze if the presence and grading of ACLF as defined by European Society for the Study of the Liver-Chronic Liver Failure (EASL-CLIF) is able to predict mortality in cirrhotic patients presenting AEVH.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study executed in Hospital Geral de Caxias do Sul. Data from medical records from 2010 to 2016 were obtained by searching the hospital electronic database for patients who received terlipressin. Medical records were reviewed in order to determine the diagnosis of cirrhosis and AEVH, including 97 patients. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used for univariate analysis and a stepwise approach to the Cox regression for multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

All- cause mortality for AEVH patients was 36%, 40.2% and 49.4% for 30-, 90- and 365-day, respectively. The prevalence of ACLF was 41.3%. Of these, 35% grade 1, 50% grade 2 and 15% grade 3. In multivariate analysis, the non-use of non-selective beta-blockers, presence and higher grading of ACLF and higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores were independently associated with higher mortality for 30-day with the addition of higher Child-Pugh scores for 90-day period.

CONCLUSION

Presence and grading of ACLF according to the EASL-CLIF criteria was independently associated with higher 30- and 90-day mortality in cirrhotic patients admitted due to AEVH.

Global burden of Liver Disease: 2023 Update

Liver disease accounts for 2 million deaths and is responsible for 4% of all deaths (1 out of every 25 deaths worldwide); approximately 2/3 of all liver related deaths occur in men. Deaths are largely attributable to complications of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, with acute hepatitis accounting for a smaller proportion of deaths. The most common causes of cirrhosis worldwide are related to viral hepatitis, alcohol, and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Hepatotropic viruses are the etiological factor in most cases of acute hepatitis, but drug-induced liver injury increasingly accounts for a significant proportion of cases. This iteration of the global burden of liver disease is an update of the 2019 version and focuses mainly on areas where significant new information is available like alcohol-associated liver disease, NAFLD, viral hepatitis, and HCC. We also devote a separate section to the burden of liver disease in Africa, an area of the world typically neglected in such documents.

Correlation Between Computed Tomography Findings and the Laboratory Test-Derived Severity Score in Patients With Severe Acute Alcoholic Hepatitis

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to compare computed tomography (CT) findings between patients with severe and nonsevere acute alcoholic hepatitis (AAH).

METHODS

We included 96 patients diagnosed with AAH between January 2011 and October 2021 who underwent 4-phase liver CT and laboratory blood tests. Two radiologists reviewed the initial CT images with respect to distribution and grade of hepatic steatosis; transient parenchymal arterial enhancement (TPAE); and presence of cirrhosis, ascites, and hepatosplenomegaly. A Maddrey discriminant function score (4.6 × [patient's prothrombin time - control] + total bilirubin [mg/mL]) was used as cutoff indicator for severity, with a score of 32 or higher indicating severe disease. The image findings were compared between the severe (n = 24) and nonsevere (n = 72) groups using the χ2 test or Fisher exact test. After univariate analysis, the most significant factor was identified using a logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

In the univariate analysis, there were significant between-group differences in the TPAE, liver cirrhosis, splenomegaly, and ascites (P < 0.0001, P < 0.0001, P = 0.0002, and P = 0.0163, respectively). Among them, TPAE was the only significant factor for severe AAH (P < 0.0001; odds ratio, 48.1; 95% confidence interval, 8.3-280.6). Using this single indicator, the estimated accuracy, positive predictive, and negative predictive values were 86%, 67%, and 97%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Transient parenchymal arterial enhancement was the only significant CT finding in severe AAH.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram model for ICU patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis (ALC) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) is poor. We developed and validated a nomogram (NIALC) for ICU patients with ALC.

METHODS

Predictors of mortality were defined by a machine learning method in a cohort of 394 ICU patients with ALC from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care database. Then the nomogram (NIALC) was constructed and evaluated using the AUC. The MELD, MELD-sodium, Child-Pugh, and CLIF-SOFA scores were then compared with NIALC. Two datasets of 394 and 501 ICU patients with ALC were utilized for model validation.

RESULTS

In-hospital mortality was 41% and 21% in the training and external validation sets. Predictors included were blood urea nitrogen, total bilirubin, prothrombin time, serum creatinine, lactate, partial thromboplastin time, phosphate, mean arterial pressure, lymphocytes, fibrinogen, and albumin. The AUCs for the NIALC were 0.767 and 0.760 in the two validation cohorts, which were better than those of the MELD, MELD-sodium, Child-Pugh, and CLIF-SOFA.

CONCLUSION

We developed a nomogram for ICU patients with ALC, which demonstrated better discriminative ability than previous prognostic scores. This nomogram could be conveniently used to facilitate the individualized prediction of death in ICU patients with ALC.

Hemoadsorption in 'Liver Indication'-Analysis of 109 Patients' Data from the CytoSorb International Registry

Background: Our aim is to report the results of the ‘liver indication’ subset of patients in the CytoSorb International Registry. Methods: Structured data were recorded. Treatment characteristics and changes from T1 (start of hemoadsorption) to T2 (termination) were evaluated with a special focus on bilirubin, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, interleukin-6, platelet levels, SOFA scores, mortality, and subjective assessment by the attending physicians. Results: Until January 2021, from the total 1434 patients, 109 (age: 49.2 ± 17.1 years, 57.8% males) received treatment for hyperbilirubinemia. APACHE II-predicted mortality was 49.6 ± 26.8%. In the study, 91% of patients were alive at the termination of hemoadsorption and improvement was observed by the physicians in 75 cases. Overall, 65 (59.6%) patients died in the hospital, and 60 (55.0%) died in the ICU. Patients received a median of two treatments for a median of 43 h (interquartile range: 24–72 h) in total. Serum bilirubin levels reduced significantly to −4.6 (95% CI: −6.329 to −2.8) mg/dL. Thrombocytopenia was reported in four patients as an adverse event. Conclusions: We report the largest case series on hemoadsorption for ‘liver indication’ from the CytoSorb International Registry. The finding of significant bilirubin removal observed in our study could have substantial impact in designing and executing further studies on the effects of hemoadsorption in liver dysfunction, which are certainly warranted.

ACUTE-ON-CHRONIC LIVER FAILURE IS INDEPENDENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER SURVIVAL IN PATIENTS WITH SPONTANEOUS BACTERIAL PERITONITIS

BACKGROUND

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a decompensation of cirrhosis with an in-hospital mortality ranging from 20% to 40%.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is to analyze if EASL-CLIF definition of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is able to predict mortality in cirrhotic patients with SBP.

METHODS

Historical cohort study conducted in a public tertiary care teaching hospital. Data from medical records from January 2009 to July 2016 were obtained by searching the hospital electronic database for samples of ascites collected in the period. Electronic and physical medical records were analyzed and patients were included if they were over 18-years old, with cirrhosis and an ascites fluid compatible with SBP: 69 patients were included. Liver-specific scores were calculated and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used for univariate analysis and a stepwise approach to the Cox regression for multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

All cause mortality was 44%, 56.5% and 74% for 28-, 90- and 365-day, respectively. The prevalence of ACLF was 58%. Of these, 65% grade 1, 17.5% grade 2 and 17.5% grade 3. In multivariate analysis, the use of proton-pump inhi-bitors, alanine transaminase lower than 40 U/L, hemoglobin higher than 9 g/dL, absence of ACLF and lower CLIF-SOFA and MELD scores were independently associated with higher survival for both 28- and 90-day interval.

CONCLUSION

The presence of ACLF and higher CLIF-SOFA scores were independently associated with higher 28- and 90-day mortality in cirrhotic patients admitted due to SBP.

Non-invasive diagnosis of severe alcoholic hepatitis: Usefulness of cross-sectional imaging

PURPOSE

To describe the computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features of severe acute alcoholic hepatitis (SAAH) and estimate the capabilities of CT and MRI in differentiating SAAH from alcoholic cirrhosis and non-alcoholic steato-hepatitis (NASH) cirrhosis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Fifty patients with pathologically proven SAAH (SAAH group) who underwent CT or MRI examinations up to 30 days before or 15 days after liver biopsy between January 2008 and June 2018 were retrospectively included. There were 31 men and 29 women with a mean age of 52±9 (SD) years (range: 33-67 years). Imaging features of the SAAH group were compared to those obtained in two control groups including 62 patients with alcoholic cirrhosis without acute alcoholic hepatitis (control group 1) and 19 patients with NASH cirrhosis (control group 2) by two independent radiologists blinded to the final diagnosis. Univariate analyses were performed to compare imaging characteristics between the three groups, followed by diagnostic performance analysis for the diagnosis of SAAH of the main CT features.

RESULTS

Heterogeneous steatosis was significantly more frequent in SAAH group than in the control groups (41/50; 82% vs. 7/62; 10% and 1/19; 5% in control groups 1 and 2, respectively for reader 1 and 34/50; 68% vs. 8/62; 13% and 1/19; 5% in control groups 1 and 2, respectively for reader 2; both P=0.01). Transient perfusion disorders were more frequent in SAAH group than in the control groups (35/50; 70% vs. 12/62; 21% and 5/19; 26% in control groups 1 and 2, respectively for reader 1 and 39/50; 78% vs. 14/62; 23% and 13/19; 6% in control groups 1 and 2, respectively for reader 2; both P=0.01). The combination of these two findings yielded 100% specificity (45/45; 95% CI: 92-100) for readers 1 and 2 for the diagnosis of SAAH vs. alcoholic cirrhosis and NASH cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

The imaging features of SAAH are specific and mainly associate transient heterogeneous steatosis and liver perfusion disorders. CT/MRI may be useful to differentiate SAAH from alcoholic cirrhosis and NASH cirrhosis.

Systematic review with meta-analysis: high mortality in patients with non-severe alcoholic hepatitis

BACKGROUND

Alcoholic hepatitis is a serious complication of alcohol misuse. Severe alcoholic hepatitis with its high mortality, has been investigated in detail but 'nonsevere alcoholic hepatitis' is poorly characterised. Survival of this group of patients is unknown.

AIM

To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine 28-day, 90-day and 1-year mortality of patients with nonsevere alcoholic hepatitis.

METHODS

The protocol was registered on the PROSPERO database (CRD42018107451). Embase, Medline and Cochrane Central databases were searched until July 2018. All study designs reporting mortality rates in patients with nonsevere alcoholic hepatitis were eligible. Mortality data were extracted and meta-analysis performed using a random effects model. Risk of bias was assessed by Cochrane risk of bias or National Institutes of Health quality assessment tool for case series studies.

RESULTS

Twenty-five studies (n = 1372 patients; 12 prospective) met criteria. Nonsevere was variably defined based on bilirubin, prothrombin time, and creatinine. Twenty-eight day mortality (17 studies; n = 993) was 6% (95% CI 3%-9%; I2  = 67.3%; P < 0.001), 90-day mortality (15 studies; n = 755) was 7% (4%-11%, I2  = 64.2%; P < 0.001) and 1-year mortality (five studies; n = 234) was 13% (4%-24%; I2  = 72%; P = 0.006). Subgroup analyses by method of diagnosis (histological vs clinical) or study design (prospective vs retrospective) did not reveal differences in mortality.

CONCLUSION

Nonsevere alcoholic hepatitis is not benign with 6% and 13% 28-day and 1-year mortality, respectively. This systematic review demonstrates the paucity of high quality studies in patients with nonsevere alcoholic hepatitis. Our analysis suggests that patients who do not meet criteria for severe alcoholic hepatitis are an important and hitherto overlooked clinical group. Full characterisation of clinical outcome and development of treatment strategies to reduce mortality in this group is a priority.

Clinical Presentation and Mortality Determinants of Alcohol-Related Liver Disease: A Single-Center Experience of the Rising Menace from Eastern India

OBJECTIVES

Recently, the incidence of alcohol-related liver disease has been rising alarmingly in India with late presentation and short survival. Better delineation of factors affecting mortality is needed for optimal utilization of constrained resources like liver transplantation.

METHODS

Baseline data of 395 patients with alcohol-related liver disease including age, clinical presentation, alcohol parameters (amount, duration, type), laboratory parameters for detecting organ failure, and prognostic scores were compared between survivor and deceased groups. Further subgroup analysis of deceased patients was done to identify factors associated with early mortality in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and cirrhosis groups by multivariate analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Only best supportive medical therapy was offered to all.

RESULTS

80 (20.3%) patients had alcoholic hepatitis (without cirrhosis) and recovered completely with abstinence. 315 (79.7%) had evidence of either cirrhosis (n = 182, 46.1%) or ACLF (n = 133, 33.6%) at presentation and all died within the next 2 years of follow-up, earlier in the ACLF cases. All deceased patients had been heavy drinkers for long periods (>85 g/day for >17 years). Higher age, amount of alcohol consumption, number of organ failures and discriminant function score predicted severe disease and early mortality, the latter being the best predictor. The European Foundation for the study of chronic liver failure consortium (CLIF-C) score has good applicability in Indian ACLF cohorts. Serum glutamic pyruvic transaminase was normal in 73.8% of deceased patients compared to only 12.5% of survivors. Abstinence did not result in complete normalization of deranged laboratory parameters in those who died.

CONCLUSION

Alcohol-related liver disease is serious with high short-term mortality, which has early identifiable but mostly irreversible factors. Urgent measures need to be taken to curb this rising menace.

The Role of Liver Transplantation in Alcoholic Hepatitis

Acute alcoholic hepatitis is a syndrome of jaundice and hepatic decompensation that occurs with excessive alcohol consumption. The diagnosis can be made with a combination of clinical characteristics and laboratory studies, though biopsy may be required in unclear cases. Acute alcoholic hepatitis can range from mild to severe disease, as determined by a Maddrey discriminant function ≥32. Mild forms can be managed with supportive care and abstinence from alcohol. While mild form has an overall good prognosis, severe alcoholic hepatitis is associated with an extremely high short-term mortality of up to 50%. Additional complications of severe alcoholic hepatitis can include hepatic encephalopathy, gastrointestinal bleeding, renal failure, and infection; these patients frequently require intensive care unit admission. Corticosteroids may have short-term benefit in this group of patients if there are no contraindications; however, a subset of patients do not respond to steroids. New emerging therapies, which target hepatic regeneration, bile acid metabolism, and extracorporeal liver support, are being investigated. Liver transplantation for alcoholic liver disease was traditionally only considered in patients who have achieved 6 months of abstinence, in part due to social and ethical concerns regarding the use of a limited resource. However, the majority of patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis who fail medical therapy will not live long enough to meet this requirement. Recent studies have demonstrated that early liver transplantation in carefully selected patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis who fail medical therapy can provide a significant survival benefit and yields survival outcomes comparable to liver transplantation for other indications, with 6-month survival rates ranging from 77% to 100%. Alcohol relapse posttransplantation remains an important challenge, and heavy consumption can contribute to graft loss and mortality. Future investigation should address the substantial post-liver transplantation recidivism rate, from improving selection criteria to increasing posttransplantation substance abuse treatment resources.

Burden of liver diseases in the world

Liver disease accounts for approximately 2 million deaths per year worldwide, 1 million due to complications of cirrhosis and 1million due to viral hepatitis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Cirrhosis is currently the 11th most common cause of death globally and liver cancer is the 16th leading cause of death; combined, they account for 3.5% of all deaths worldwide. Cirrhosis is within the top 20 causes of disability-adjusted life years and years of life lost, accounting for 1.6% and 2.1% of the worldwide burden. About 2 billion people consume alcohol worldwide and upwards of 75 million are diagnosed with alcohol-use disorders and are at risk of alcohol-associated liver disease. Approximately 2 billion adults are obese or overweight and over 400 million have diabetes; both of which are risk factors for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma. The global prevalence of viral hepatitis remains high, while drug-induced liver injury continues to increase as a major cause of acute hepatitis. Liver transplantation is the second most common solid organ transplantation, yet less than 10% of global transplantation needs are met at current rates. Though these numbers are sobering, they highlight an important opportunity to improve public health given that most causes of liver diseases are preventable.

Predictors of 1-month and 3-months Hospital Readmissions in Decompensated Cirrhosis: A Prospective Study in a Large Asian Cohort

INTRODUCTION AND AIM

Considered as a healthcare quality indicator, hospital readmissions in decompensated cirrhosis predispose the patients and the society to physical, social and economic distresses. Few studies involving North American cohorts have identified different predictors. The aim of this study was to determine and validate the predictors of 1-month and 3-months readmission in an Asian cohort.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We prospectively studied 281 hospitalised patients with decompensated cirrhosis at a large tertiary care public hospital in India between August 2014 and August 2016 and followed them for 3 months. Data regarding demographic, laboratory and disease related risk factors were compiled. We used multivariate logistic regression to determine predictors of readmission at 1-month and 3-months and receiver operating curves (ROC) for significant predictors to obtain the best cut-offs.

RESULTS

1-month and 3-months readmission rates in our study were 27.8% and 42.3%, respectively. Model for End stage Liver Disease (MELD) score at discharge (OR:1.24, p < 0.001) and serum sodium (OR:0.94, p-0.039) independently predicted 1-month and MELD score (OR:1.11, p-0.003), serum sodium (OR:0.94, p-0.027) and male gender (OR:2.19, p-0.008) independently predicted 3-months readmissions. Neither aetiology nor complications of cirrhosis emerged as risk factors. MELD score >14 at discharge and serum sodium < 133 mEq/L best predicted readmissions; MELD score being a better predictor than serum sodium (p - 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

High rates of early and late readmissions were found in our study. Further, this study validated readmission predictors in Asian patients. Structured interventions targeting this risk factors may diminish readmissions in decompensated cirrhosis.

Comparison of five different scoring models for predicting short-term mortality in patients with alcohol-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

AIM

To compare the performance of age, bilirubin, INR, and creatinine (ABIC), Maddrey's discriminant function (MDF), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA), and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) in predicting short-term mortality in patients with alcohol-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

METHODS

There were 462 consecutive patients with live failure treated from August 2005 to June 2017 at Tianjin Third Central Hospital, of whom 152 with alcohol-related ACLF were finally enrolled in this study according to the inclusion criteria and exclusion criteria. We divided patients into either group A or group B. Patients in group A met the criteria of Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver but did not met the criteria of European Association for the Study of the Liver-Chronic Liver Failure (EASL-CLIF), and patients in group B met the criteria of EASL-CLIF on admission. The performance of different scoring models in predicting short-term mortality was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC).

RESULTS

The 28-d mortality rate was 19% in group A and 50% in group B (P = 0.002). In group A, the AUC of CLIF-SOFA for predicting the 28-d mortality was highest (0.889), followed by MELD (0.761), MDF (0.738), ABIC (0.718), and CTP (0.671), and there was a significant difference between CTP and the others. In group B, the AUC of CLIF-SOFA was 0.916, followed by MELD (0.804), MDF (0.770), ABIC (0.729), and CTP (0.647), and there was a significant difference between CLIF-SOFA and the others and between CTP and the others.

CONCLUSION

The five scoring systems could all predict the short-term prognosis of the two groups of patients. However, CLIF-SOFA performs well compared to the others, regardless of patients in group A or group B.