Clinicopathological parameters predicting recurrence of pT1N0 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Laboratory blood parameters and machine learning for the prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Background

In contemporary study, the death of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients need precise and expedient prognostic methodologies.

Objective

To develop and validate a prognostic model tailored to ESCC patients, leveraging the power of machine learning (ML) techniques and drawing insights from comprehensive datasets of laboratory-derived blood parameters.

Methods

Three ML approaches, including Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Random Survival Forest (RSF), and the classical Cox method, were employed to develop models on a dataset of 2521 ESCC patients with 27 features. The models were evaluated by concordance index (C-index) and time receiver operating characteristics (Time ROC) curves. We used the optimal model to evaluate the correlation between features and prognosis and divide patients into low- and high-risk groups by risk stratification. Its performance was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier curve and the comparison with AJCC8 stage. We further evaluate the comprehensive effectiveness of the model in ESCC subgroup by risk score and KDE (kernel density estimation) plotting.

Results

RSF's C-index (0.746) and AUC (three-year AUC 0.761, five-year AUC 0.771) had slight advantage over GBM and the classical Cox method. Subsequently, 14 features such as N stage, T stage, surgical margin, tumor length, age, Dissected LN number, MCH, Na, FIB, DBIL, CL, treatment, vascular invasion, and tumor grade were selected to build the model. Based on these, we found significant difference for survival rate between low-(3-year OS 81.8%, 5-year OS 69.8%) and high-risk (3-year OS 25.1%, 5-year OS 11.5%) patients in training set, which was also verified in test set (all P < 0.0001). Compared with the AJCC8th stage system, it showed a greater discriminative ability which is also in good agreement with its staging ability.

Conclusion

We developed an ESCC prognostic model with good performance by clinical features and laboratory blood parameters.

Serum VEGF levels as a predictor of recurrence in patients with advanced‑stage esophageal squamous cell carcinoma following curative esophagectomy followed by chemotherapy or concurrent radiotherapy

The present study evaluated serum levels of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) as a predictor of recurrence in patients with advanced-stage esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) following curative esophagectomy followed by chemotherapy or concurrent radiotherapy. Patients with locally advanced resectable ESCC underwent R0 esophagectomy followed by chemotherapy or concurrent radiotherapy as an adjuvant. Serum VEGF levels in 173 patients, including 57 patients with recurrent disease, and 183 healthy controls were determined using a Luminex assay. The results demonstrated that the serum VEGF levels were significantly higher in 57 patients with locally advanced resectable ESCC at recurrence compared with the levels at pre-treatment (P<0.001). The patients with recurrence exhibited significantly higher serum VEGF levels during chemotherapy or concurrent radiotherapy than patients with no recurrence (P<0.05). Patients with low serum VEGF levels had a significantly longer survival time than those with high serum VEGF levels prior to treatment (P<0.01). The median survival times were 70 and 25 months in patients with locally advanced resectable ESCC with serum VEGF levels <161.75 and ≥161.75 pg/ml following treatment, respectively (P<0.01). Compared with patients with VEGF levels <147 pg/ml following treatment, patients with locally advanced resectable ESCC with VEGF levels ≥147 pg/ml had a significantly higher risk of recurrence (P<0.01). Patients with low serum VEGF levels (<147 pg/ml) had significantly higher recurrence-free survival rates than those with high serum VEGF levels (≥147 pg/ml) following treatment (P<0.01). The findings of the present study demonstrate that serum VEGF levels are a potential predictor of recurrence and of the treatment outcomes of chemotherapy or concurrent radiotherapy in patients with locally advanced resectable ESCC.

Tumor budding and tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes can predict prognosis in pT1b esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Tumor budding (TB) and tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte (TIL) are significant predictive indicators of lymph node metastasis (LNM) and unfavorable prognosis in various tumors. Currently, there is no gold standard for TB and TIL evaluation in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). This study aimed to identify the standard of TB and TIL evaluations and build a predictive model for prognosis among patients with pT1b ESCC.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the prognostic values of TB and TIL in 150 pT1b ESCC cases. Hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) and immunohistochemistry (IHC) of anti-pan cytokeratin (AE1/AE3) were used to analyze the threshold of TB, and intratumoral TIL and peritumoral TIL (pTIL) were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC).

RESULTS

We found that TB in a three-tiered grading system (low-TB: 0-4; middle-TB: 5-15; high-TB: ≥16) displayed an excellent prognosis prediction for LNM and survival based on IHC staining using a 20× objective lens. Low pTIL level (≤20%) was a significant indicator of LNM and unfavorable prognosis (p < 0.05). Moreover, lower tumor location and lymphovascular invasion (LVI) were correlated with an unfavorable prognosis (p < 0.05). A nomogram developed based on TB, pTIL, LVI, and tumor location showed good discrimination, as shown by the area under the ROC and calibration curves.

CONCLUSION

We therefore recommend identifying TB using a 20× objective lens under IHC staining and TIL adjacent to the tumor. Additionally, a nomogram was built for facilitating individualized prediction of survival for patients with pT1b ESCC.

Clinical Significance of Intramural Metastasis as an Independent Prognostic Factor in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Although intramural metastasis (IM) in esophageal cancer is considered a poor prognostic factor, there are only limited reports detailing its clinicopathologic characteristics and prognostic impact.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We retrospectively included patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) with esophagectomy at our institution between 2010 and 2016. We compared patients with intramural metastases (IMs) (IM group) versus those without IMs (non-IM group) to clarify the clinical significance of intramural metastasis in ESCC.

RESULTS

A total of 23 (3.9%) out of all 597 patients were identified to have IM. The IMs were located on the cranial side in 13 (56.5%) and caudal side in 10 (43.5%) of the primary tumor, with two multiple cases. The IM group, compared with the non-IM group, was associated with higher percentage of cN-positive (91.3 versus 67.9%, P = 0.02), pN-positive (82.6 versus 55.9%, P = 0.04), and pM(lym)-positive (30.4 versus 12.5%, P = 0.02) cases. Five-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) was significantly worse in the IM group than the non-IM group (14.9 versus 55.0 %, P < 0.001). Multivariable analysis of recurrence-free survival identified pT (HR 1.74, 95% CI 1.36-2.23, P < 0.001), pN (HR 2.11, 95% CI 1.60-2.78, P < 0.001), histological classification (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.21-2.35, P = 0.002), and pM(LYM) (HR 1.64, 95% CI 1.64-2.95, P < 0.001), along with presence of IM (HR 2.24, 95% CI 1.37-3.64, P < 0.001) to be independent prognostic factors. Lymphatic (65.2 versus 24.9%, P < 0.001) and hepatic (26.1 versus 6.8%, P = 0.005) recurrences were significantly more common in the IM group than in the non-IM group.

CONCLUSIONS

IM was shown to be associated with dismal survival after surgery. A treatment strategy emphasizing more intensive systemic control should be considered for patients with ESCC with IM.

Prognostic significance of lymphovascular invasion in patients with pT1b esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Lymphovascular invasion (LVI) is a crucial predictor of lymph node metastasis (LNM). However, few studies have investigated the LVI positivity rate and its clinical significance in pT1b esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) using immunohistochemistry and elastin staining.

METHODS

We collected data from158 patients with pT1b ESCC who had undergone radical esophagectomy. All paraffin blocks of invasive carcinoma from each patient were subjected to HE staining, elastin staining + CK (AE1/AE3) immunohistochemistry (E&IHC), and CD31/D2-40 + CK (AE1/AE3) double immunohistochemistry (D-IHC). The LVI was classified into types, i.e., vascular invasion (VI) and lymphatic vessel invasion (LI), and its location, quantity, and clinical significance were explored.

RESULTS

The positivity rates of VI by E&IHC (E-VI), VI by CD31D-IHC (CD31-VI), and LI by D2-40 D-IHC (D2-40-LI) were significantly higher than those obtained by HE staining (P < 0.001, respectively). CD31-VI and E-VI were independent adverse prognostic factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS), and they were significantly associated with poor distant metastasis-free survival and overall survival in pT1b ESCC. Intratumoral LVI was also crucial in pT1b ESCC, and L2 (the count of D2-40-LI was 5 or more) was the strongest predictor for LNM and RFS in pT1b ESCC.

CONCLUSION

E&IHC and D-IHC can dramatically improve the detection rate of LVI in pT1b ESCC, and the classification and grading of LVI can help to improve the prediction of LNM and prognosis.

The prognostic value of separate lymphatic invasion and vascular invasion in oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma: a meta-analysis and systematic review

BACKGROUND

Lymphovascular invasion (LVI) is a factor correlated with a poor prognosis in oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Lymphatic invasion (LI) and vascular invasion (VI) should be reported separately because they may indicate a difference in prognosis. The prognostic role of LI and VI in ESCC patients remains controversial. A meta-analysis was conducted to resolve this question.

METHODS

We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Scopus and Cochrane Library databases for studies on the association between LI and VI and the prognosis of patients with ESCC. The PICOs (Participant, Intervention, Comparison, Outcome) strategy were selected for the systematic review and meta-analysis. The effect size (ES) was the hazard ratio (HR) or relative ratio (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS).

RESULTS

A total of 27 studies with 5740 patients were included. We calculated the pooled results from univariate and multivariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazards method. The heterogeneity was acceptable in OS and RFS. According to the pooled results of multivariate analysis, both LI and VI were correlated with a worse OS. VI was a negative indicator for RFS, while the p value of VI was greater than 0.05. The prognostic role was weakened in subgroup analysis with studies using haematoxylin-eosin staining method.

CONCLUSIONS

Both LI and VI were indicators of a worse OS outcome. LI was a more significant indicator in predicting a worse RFS. More larger sample studies with immunohistochemical staining and good designs are required to detect the prognostic value of separate LI and VI in ESCC.

What are the independent prognostic factors in patients undergoing esophagectomy for esophageal cancer?

Background

This study aims to investigate the prognostic factors affecting survival in patients undergoing surgical treatment for esophageal cancer.

Methods

A total of 50 patients (33 males, 17 females; mean age: 57.8±11.8 years; range, 28 to 80 years) who underwent esophagectomy for esophageal cancer in our clinic between January 2008 and March 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. Prognostic factors affecting survival were investigated. Data including age, sex, tumor size, histological and macroscopic type, tumor stage, T and N categories, the total number of resected lymph nodes and metastatic lymph node ratio, differentiation degree, vascular and perineural invasion, proximal surgical margin distance, adjuvant therapy, and the presence of postoperative complications were recorded.

Results

The patients after radical surgery with a tumor size of <3 cm, macroscopic type non-ulcerative-infiltrative squamous cell carcinoma pathology, Stage 1 disease, pT1-2, pN0, well-differentiated groups, no perineural invasion, a metastatic lymph node ratio of <0.2, proximal surgery margin length of 5 to 10 cm, and no postoperative complications had higher five-year survival rates. However, when the effects of these factors on overall survival were examined independently, none of them had a statistically significant effect (p>0.05). The main factors affecting the prognosis were Stage ≥2 disease, postoperative complications, and proximal surgical margin less than 5 cm.

Conclusion

Our study results suggest that Stage 1 disease, a proximal surgical margin length of more than 5 cm, and the absence of complications are associated with longer survival times and these patients are greatly benefited from surgical treatment.

A prognostic biomarker study in patients with clinical stage I esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: JCOG0502-A1

We conducted genomic analyses of Japanese patients with stage I esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) to investigate the frequency of genomic alterations and the association with survival outcomes. Biomarker analysis was conducted for patients with clinical stage T1bN0M0 ESCC enrolled in JCOG0502 (UMIN000000551). Whole-exome sequencing (WES) was performed using DNA extracted from formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue of ESCC and normal tissue or blood sample. Single nucleotide variants (SNVs), insertions/deletions (indels), and copy number alterations (CNAs) were identified. We then evaluated the associations between each gene alteration with a frequency ≥10% and progression-free survival (PFS) using a Cox regression model. We controlled for family-wise errors at 0.05 using the Bonferroni method. Among the 379 patients who were enrolled in JCOG0502, 127 patients were successfully analyzed using WES. The median patient age was 63 years (IQR, 57-67 years), and 78.0% of the patients ultimately underwent surgery. The 3-year PFS probability was 76.3%. We detected 20 genes with SNVs, indels, or amplifications with a frequency of ≥10%. Genomic alterations in FGF19 showed the strongest association with PFS with a borderline level of statistical significance of p = 0.00252 (Bonferroni-adjusted significance level is 0.0025). Genomic alterations in FGF4, MYEOV, CTTN, and ORAOV1 showed a marginal association with PFS (p < 0.05). These genomic alterations were all CNAs at chromosome 11q13.3. We have identified new genomic alterations associated with the poor efficacy of ESCC (T1bN0M0). These findings open avenues for the development of new potential treatments for patients with ESCC.

Tumor Stage-Based Gross Tumor Volume of Resectable Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Measured on CT: Association With Early Recurrence After Esophagectomy

Objective

To investigate relationship of tumor stage-based gross tumor volume (GTV) of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) measured on computed tomography (CT) with early recurrence (ER) after esophagectomy.

Materials and Methods

Two hundred and four consecutive patients with resectable ESCC including 159 patients enrolled in the training cohort (TC) and 45 patients in validation cohort (VC) underwent contrast-enhanced CT less than 2 weeks before esophagectomy. GTV was retrospectively measured by multiplying sums of all tumor areas by section thickness. For the TC, univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine factors associated with ER. Mann-Whitney U test was conducted to compare GTV in patients with and without ER. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to determine if tumor stage-based GTV could predict ER. For the VC, unweighted Cohen’s Kappa tests were used to evaluate the performances of the previous ROC predictive models.

Results

ER occurred in 63 of 159 patients (39.6%) in the TC. According to the univariate analysis, histologic differentiation, cT stage, cN stage, and GTV were associated with ER after esophagectomy (all P-values < 0.05). Multivariate analysis revealed that cT stage and GTV were independent risk factors with hazard ratios of 3.382 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.533–7.459] and 1.222 (95% CI: 1.125–1.327), respectively (all P-values < 0.05). Mann-Whitney U tests showed that GTV could help differentiate between ESCC with and without ER in stages cT_1-4a, cT₂, and cT₃ (all P-values < 0.001), and the ROC analysis demonstrated the corresponding cutoffs of 13.31, 17.22, and 17.83 cm³ with areas under the curve of more than 0.8, respectively. In the VC, the Kappa tests validated that the ROC predictive models had good performances for differentiating between ESCC with and without ER in stages cT_1-4a, cT₂, and cT₃ with Cohen k of 0.696 (95% CI, 0.498–0.894), 0.733 (95% CI, 0.386–1.080), and 0.862 (95% CI, 0.603–1.121), respectively.

Conclusion

GTV and cT stage can be independent risk factors of ER in ESCC after esophagectomy, and tumor stage-based GTV measured on CT can help predict ER.

Role of Recurrent Laryngeal Nerve Lymph Node Dissection in Surgery of Early-Stage Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

In esophageal cancer surgery, it is difficult to perform thorough dissection of lymph nodes along the recurrent laryngeal nerve (RLN-LN). However, there are limited data regarding the necessity of RLN-LN dissection in surgery for superficial esophageal squamous carcinoma (focused on T1b tumor) and its role in locoregional control and accurate nodal staging.

METHODS

Between 2001 and 2016, 567 patients with pT1N0 and 927 patients with cT1N0 squamous cell carcinoma were identified in a prospectively maintained, single institution esophagectomy registry. Sufficient or insufficient RLN-LN assessment group was defined by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of the number of RLN-LN harvested. To mitigate bias, inverse probability weighting adjustment and several sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

In the pT1N0 cohort, patients with sufficient (≥ 4) harvested RLN-LNs showed significantly superior 5-year recurrence-free survival (89.1% versus 74.8%, log-rank P < 0.001). Patients with insufficient RLN-LN dissection mainly developed locoregional failure at the upper mediastinal or cervical area (87% of total recurred cases). The survival impact of sufficient RLN-LN dissection was more prominent in subsets of upper-middle thoracic tumors or with deep submucosal invasion. In the analysis on cT1N0 cohort, sufficient RLN-LN assessment conferred a 1.5-fold increase in the discovery of positive-nodal disease (19.4% versus 27.8%, P = 0.008).

CONCLUSIONS

Adequate RLN-LN dissection during surgery may help reduce the risk of recurrence and enhance the accuracy of nodal staging in early-stage esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Therefore, meticulous surgical evaluation for this region should not be underrated, particularly in the high-risk subset with lymph node metastasis. Visual Abstract Graphical summary of key study findings. T wo cohorts (pT1 and cT1 ; both mainly comprised T1b ) were analyzed for separate purposes; the former controlled for pathologic stage was primarily analyzed in terms of survival and recurrence hazard, whereas the latter (controlled for clinical was used for stage migration ( and intention to treat analysis. Th e results show the significance of adequate bilateral RLN LN in the surgery for early stage ESCC (particularly those with T1b)T1b), in terms of accurate nodal staging, effective nodal clearance, and reduced regional.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict overall survival of T1 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients with lymph node metastasis

PURPOSE

To develop a nomogram for predicting the prognosis of T1 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients with positive lymph node.

METHODS

T1 ESCC patients with lymph node metastasis diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and Final Results (SEER) database. The entire cohort was randomly divided in the ratio of 7:3 into a training group (n=457) and validation group (n=192), respectively. Prognostic factors were identified by univariate and multivariate Cox regression models. Harrell's concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration curve were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the nomogram. The accuracy and clinical net benefit of the nomogram compared with the 7^th AJCC staging system were evaluated using net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

The nomogram consisted of eight factors: insurance, T stage, summary stage, primary site, radiation code, chemotherapy, surgery, and radiation sequence with surgery. In the training and validation cohorts, the AUCs exceeded 0.700, and the C-index scores were 0.749 and 0.751, respectively, indicating that the nomogram had good discrimination. The consistency between the survival probability predicted by the nomogram and the actual observed probability was indicated by the calibration curve in the training and validation cohorts. For NRI>0 and IDI>0, the predictive power of the nomogram was more accurate than that of the 7^th AJCC staging system. Furthermore, the DCA curve indicated that the nomogram achieved better clinical utility than the traditional system.

CONCLUSIONS

Unlike the 7^th AJCC staging system, the developed and validated nomogram can help clinical staff to more accurately, personally and comprehensively predict the 1-year and 3-year OS probability of T1 ESCC patients with lymph node metastasis.

Risk factors for lymph node metastasis in T1 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Lymph node metastasis (LNM) affects the application and outcomes of endoscopic resection in T1 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). However, reports of the risk factors for LNM have been controversial.

AIM

To evaluate risk factors for LNM in T1 ESCC.

METHODS

We searched Embase, PubMed and Cochrane Library to select studies related to LNM in patients with T1 ESCC. Included studies were divided into LNM and non-LNM groups. We performed a meta-analysis to examine the relationship between LNM and clinicopathologic features. Odds ratio (OR), mean differences and 95% confidence interval (CI) were assessed using a fixed-effects or random-effects model.

RESULTS

Seventeen studies involving a total of 3775 patients with T1 ESCC met the inclusion criteria. After excluding studies with heterogeneity based on influence analysis, tumor size (OR = 1.93, 95%CI = 1.49-2.50, P < 0.001), tumor location (OR = 1.46, 95%CI = 1.17-1.82, P < 0.001), macroscopic type (OR = 3.17, 95%CI = 2.33-4.31, P < 0.001), T1 substage (OR = 6.28, 95%CI = 4.93-8.00, P < 0.001), differentiation (OR = 2.11, 95%CI = 1.64-2.72, P < 0.001) and lymphovascular invasion (OR = 5.86, 95%CI = 4.60-7.48, P < 0.001) were found to be significantly associated with LNM. Conversely, sex, age and infiltrative growth pattern were not identified as risk factors for LNM.

CONCLUSION

A tumor size > 2 cm, lower location, nonflat macroscopic type, T1b stage, poor differentiation and lymphovascular invasion were associated with LNM in patients with T1 ESCC.

Relationship of lymphovascular invasion with lymph node metastasis and prognosis in superficial esophageal carcinoma: systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The development of tumor cells inside the lymphatics or blood vessels is known as lymphovascular invasion (LVI). The correlation between LVI, lymph node metastasis (LNM), and the diagnosis of superficial esophageal carcinoma (SEC) remains unclear.

Methods

We searched Embase, PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases for prospective articles to better understand the relationship between LVI, LNM, and SEC diagnosis.

Results

We included 23 articles containing data for 4749 patients (range: 54–598) in our meta-analysis. The hazard ratio between LVI and overall survival (OS) was 1.85 with 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.10–3.11, P = 0.02). LNM rate was higher in SEC patients with LVI than SEC patients without LVI (univariate: OR = 4.94, 95% CI: 3.74–6.53, P < 0.0001; multivariate: OR = 5.72, 95%CI: 4.38–7.4, P < 0.0001). No obvious publication was found.

Conclusions

The results indicate that LVI plays a dominant role in the prognosis of LNM in SEC and in the prognostic prediction for SEC.