Risk factors for major gastrointestinal bleeding in the general population in Finland

Nonvitamin K Anticoagulants: Risk of Bleeding When Interacting With Other Medications: A Cohort Study From Medicare

INTRODUCTION

Patients on nonvitamin K antagonist (NVKA) are usually taking other drugs. Potential interaction may increase the gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding risk associated with NVKA.

METHODS

Observational cohort study using Medicare data from 2017 to 2020. Participants receiving a NVKA were included. A concomitant overlapping period while on NVKA was assessed for nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDS), selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI), antiplatelets, glucocorticoids, aspirin and proton pump inhibitors (PPI). A logistic regression predicting either any bleeding or GI bleeding was conducted estimating the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

A total of 102 531 people on NVKA with mean age 77 years (SD = 9.8) and 55% females (N = 56 671) were included. Previous history of GI bleeding occurred in 2 908 (2.8%) participants, concomitant exposure to PPI occurred in 38 713 (38%), SSRI in 16 487 (16%), clopidogrel in 15 795 (15.4%), NSAIDs in 13 715 (13.4%) and glucocorticoids in 13 715 (13.4%). Risk for any bleeding was shown for clopidogrel (OR: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.30, 1.44), prasugrel/ticagrelor (OR: 1.36, 95% CI: 1.18, 1.58), glucocorticoids (OR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.19, 1.34), and SSRIs (OR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.19). GI bleeding risk was shown for clopidogrel (OR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.34, 1.55), prasugrel/ticagrelor (OR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.20, 1.79), SSRIs (OR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.17) and glucocorticoids (OR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.23, 1.44). PPI use was correlated with both NSAID (r = 0.07, p ≤ 0.0001) and SSRI use (r = 0.09, p ≤ 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

NVKA concomitantly taken with antiplatelets, glucocorticoids, and SSRIs showed an increased risk for any bleeding and GI bleeding.

Upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage patients' survival: A causal inference and prediction study

BACKGROUND

Upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding is a common medical emergency. This study aimed to develop models to predict critically ill patients with upper GI bleeding in-hospital and 30-day survival, identify the correlation factor and infer the causality.

METHODS

A total of 2898 patients with upper GI bleeding were included from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV and eICU-Collaborative Research Database, respectively. To identify the most critical factors contributing to the prognostic model, we used SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) for machine learning interpretability. We performed causal inference using inverse probability weighting for survival-associated prognostic factors.

RESULTS

The optimal model using the light GBM (gradient boosting algorithm) algorithm achieved an AUC of .93 for in-hospital survival, .81 for 30-day survival in internal testing and .87 for in-hospital survival in external testing. Important factors for in-hospital survival, according to SHAP, were SOFA (Sequential organ failure assessment score), GCS (Glasgow coma scale) motor score and length of stay in ICU (Intensive critical care). In contrast, essential factors for 30-day survival were SOFA, length of stay in ICU, total bilirubin and GCS verbal score. Our model showed improved performance compared to SOFA alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Our interpretable machine learning model for predicting in-hospital and 30-day mortality in critically ill patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding showed excellent accuracy and high generalizability. This model can assist clinicians in managing these patients to improve the discrimination of high-risk patients.

[Gastrointestinal bleeding in old age]

Gastrointestinal bleeding is a frequent symptom, with increasing age as a risk factor. Upper, middle and lower gastrointestinal bleeding are differentiated depending on the location, whereby only upper and lower gastrointestinal bleeding are elucidated in this article. The symptomatology varies depending on the localization of the bleeding. German and international clinical guidelines currently exist for the preclinical and clinical management of gastrointestinal bleeding. The main focus of the article is on pre-endoscopic management of upper gastrointestinal nonvariceal and variceal bleeding, including the risk stratification, transfusion and coagulation management as well as the initial pharmacological treatment. In addition, current developments in endoscopic and interventional treatment of gastrointestinal bleeding are highlighted.

[Gastrointestinal bleeding in old age]

Gastrointestinal bleeding is a frequent symptom, with increasing age as a risk factor. Upper, middle and lower gastrointestinal bleeding are differentiated depending on the location, whereby only upper and lower gastrointestinal bleeding are elucidated in this article. The symptomatology varies depending on the localization of the bleeding. German and international clinical guidelines currently exist for the preclinical and clinical management of gastrointestinal bleeding. The main focus of the article is on pre-endoscopic management of upper gastrointestinal nonvariceal and variceal bleeding, including the risk stratification, transfusion and coagulation management as well as the initial pharmacological treatment. In addition, current developments in endoscopic and interventional treatment of gastrointestinal bleeding are highlighted.