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Tse G, Lee S, Zhou J, Liu T, Wong ICK, Mak C, Mok NS, Jeevaratnam K, Zhang Q, Cheng SH, Wong WT. Territory-Wide Chinese Cohort of Long QT Syndrome: Random Survival Forest and Cox Analyses. Front Cardiovasc Med 2021; 8:608592. [PMID: 33614747 PMCID: PMC7892622 DOI: 10.3389/fcvm.2021.608592] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2020] [Accepted: 01/11/2021] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction: Congenital long QT syndrome (LQTS) is a cardiac ion channelopathy that predisposes affected individuals to spontaneous ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation (VT/VF) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). The main aims of the study were to: (1) provide a description of the local epidemiology of LQTS, (2) identify significant risk factors of ventricular arrhythmias in this cohort, and (3) compare the performance of traditional Cox regression with that of random survival forests. Methods: This was a territory-wide retrospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with congenital LQTS between 1997 and 2019. The primary outcome was spontaneous VT/VF. Results: This study included 121 patients [median age of initial presentation: 20 (interquartile range: 8–44) years, 62% female] with a median follow-up of 88 (51–143) months. Genetic analysis identified novel mutations in KCNQ1, KCNH2, SCN5A, ANK2, CACNA1C, CAV3, and AKAP9. During follow-up, 23 patients developed VT/VF. Univariate Cox regression analysis revealed that age [hazard ratio (HR): 1.02 (1.01–1.04), P = 0.007; optimum cut-off: 19 years], presentation with syncope [HR: 3.86 (1.43–10.42), P = 0.008] or VT/VF [HR: 3.68 (1.62–8.37), P = 0.002] and the presence of PVCs [HR: 2.89 (1.22–6.83), P = 0.015] were significant predictors of spontaneous VT/VF. Only initial presentation with syncope remained significant after multivariate adjustment [HR: 3.58 (1.32–9.71), P = 0.011]. Random survival forest (RSF) model provided significant improvement in prediction performance over Cox regression (precision: 0.80 vs. 0.69; recall: 0.79 vs. 0.68; AUC: 0.77 vs. 0.68; c-statistic: 0.79 vs. 0.67). Decision rules were generated by RSF model to predict VT/VF post-diagnosis. Conclusions: Effective risk stratification in congenital LQTS can be achieved by clinical history, electrocardiographic indices, and different investigation results, irrespective of underlying genetic defects. A machine learning approach using RSF can improve risk prediction over traditional Cox regression models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gary Tse
- Tianjin Key Laboratory of Ionic-Molecular Function of Cardiovascular Disease, Department of Cardiology, Tianjin Institute of Cardiology, Second Hospital of Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.,Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Sharen Lee
- Laboratory of Cardiovascular Physiology, Li Ka Shing Institute of Health Sciences, Hong Kong, China
| | - Jiandong Zhou
- School of Data Science, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Tong Liu
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Ian Chi Kei Wong
- Centre for Safe Medication Practice and Research, Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.,School of Pharmacy, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Chloe Mak
- Department of Pathology, Hong Kong Children's Hospital, Hong Kong, China
| | - Ngai Shing Mok
- Department of Medicine and Geriatrics, Princess Margaret Hospital, Hong Kong, China
| | - Kamalan Jeevaratnam
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Qingpeng Zhang
- School of Data Science, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Shuk Han Cheng
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Wing Tak Wong
- State Key Laboratory of Agrobiotechnology, School of Life Sciences, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
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