Eta-Earth Revisited II: Deriving a Maximum Number of Earth-Like Habitats in the Galactic Disk

In Lammer et al. (2024), we defined Earth-like habitats (EHs) as rocky exoplanets within the habitable zone of complex life (HZCL) on which Earth-like N2-O2-dominated atmospheres with minor amounts of CO2 can exist, and derived a formulation for estimating the maximum number of EHs in the galaxy given realistic probabilistic requirements that have to be met for an EH to evolve. In this study, we apply this formulation to the galactic disk by considering only requirements that are already scientifically quantifiable. By implementing literature models for star formation rate, initial mass function, and the mass distribution of the Milky Way, we calculate the spatial distribution of disk stars as functions of stellar mass and birth age. For the stellar part of our formulation, we apply existing models for the galactic habitable zone and evaluate the thermal stability of nitrogen-dominated atmospheres with different CO2 mixing ratios inside the HZCL by implementing the newest stellar evolution and upper atmosphere models. For the planetary part, we include the frequency of rocky exoplanets, the availability of surface water and subaerial land, and the potential requirement of hosting a large moon by evaluating their importance and implementing these criteria from minima to maxima values as found in the scientific literature. We also discuss further factors that are not yet scientifically quantifiable but may be requirements for EHs to evolve. Based on such an approach, we find that EHs are relatively rare by obtaining plausible maximum numbers of 2.5 - 2.4 + 71.6 × 10 5 and 0.6 - 0.59 + 27.1 × 10 5 planets that can potentially host N2-O2-dominated atmospheres with maximum CO2 mixing ratios of 10% and 1%, respectively, implying that, on average, a minimum of ∼ 10 3 - 10 6 rocky exoplanets in the HZCL are needed for 1 EH to evolve. The actual number of EHs, however, may be substantially lower than our maximum ranges since several requirements with unknown occurrence rates are not included in our model (e.g., the origin of life, working carbon-silicate and nitrogen cycles); this also implies extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) to be significantly rarer still. Our results illustrate that not every star can host EHs nor can each rocky exoplanet within the HZCL evolve such that it might be able to host complex animal-like life or even ETIs. The Copernican Principle of Mediocrity therefore cannot be applied to infer that such life will be common in the galaxy.

Why the day is 24 hours long: The history of Earth's atmospheric thermal tide, composition, and mean temperature

The Sun drives a semidiurnal (12-hour) thermal tide in Earth's atmosphere. Zahnle and Walker suggested that an atmospheric oscillation with period P_res ≈ 10.5 hours resonated with the Solar driving ≈600 million years ago (Ma), when the length of day (lod) was ≈21 hours. They argued that the enhanced torque balanced the Lunar tidal torque, fixing the lod. We explore this hypothesis using two different global circulation models (GCMs), finding P_res = 11.4 and 11.5 hours today, in excellent agreement with a recent measurement. We quantify the relation between P_res, mean surface temperature [Formula: see text], composition, and Solar luminosity. We use geologic data, a dynamical model, and a Monte Carlo sampler to find possible histories for the Earth-Moon system. In the most likely model, the lod was fixed at ≈19.5 hours between 2200 and 600 Ma ago, with sustained high [Formula: see text] and an increase in the angular momentum L_EM of the Earth-Moon system of ≈5%.

Attractors and bifurcation diagrams in complex climate models

The climate is a complex nonequilibrium dynamical system that relaxes toward a steady state under the continuous input of solar radiation and dissipative mechanisms. The steady state is not necessarily unique. A useful tool to describe the possible steady states under different forcing is the bifurcation diagram, which reveals the regions of multistability, the position of tipping points, and the range of stability of each steady state. However, its construction is highly time consuming in climate models with a dynamical deep ocean, whose relaxation time is of the order of thousand years, or other feedback mechanisms that act on even longer time scales, like continental ice or carbon cycle. Using a coupled setup of the MIT general circulation model, we test two techniques for the construction of bifurcation diagrams with complementary advantages and reduced execution time. The first is based on the introduction of random fluctuations in the forcing and permits to explore a wide part of phase space. The second reconstructs the stable branches using estimates of the internal variability and of the surface energy imbalance on each attractor, and is more precise in finding the position of tipping points.

Laboratory exploration of mineral precipitates from Europa's subsurface ocean

The precipitation of hydrated phases from a chondrite-like Na-Mg-Ca-SO4-Cl solution is studied using in situ synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction, under rapid- (360 K h-1, T = 250-80 K, t = 3 h) and ultra-slow-freezing (0.3 K day-1, T = 273-245 K, t = 242 days) conditions. The precipitation sequence under slow cooling initially follows the predictions of equilibrium thermodynamics models. However, after ∼50 days at 245 K, the formation of the highly hydrated sulfate phase Na2Mg(SO4)2·16H2O, a relatively recent discovery in the Na2Mg(SO4)2-H2O system, was observed. Rapid freezing, on the other hand, produced an assemblage of multiple phases which formed within a very short timescale (≤4 min, ΔT = 2 K) and, although remaining present throughout, varied in their relative proportions with decreasing temperature. Mirabilite and meridianiite were the major phases, with pentahydrite, epsomite, hydrohalite, gypsum, blödite, konyaite and loweite also observed. Na2Mg(SO4)2·16H2O was again found to be present and increased in proportion relative to other phases as the temperature decreased. The results are discussed in relation to possible implications for life on Europa and application to other icy ocean worlds.

The Astrobiology of Alien Worlds: Known and Unknown Forms of Life

Most definitions of life assume that, at a minimum, life is a physical form of matter distinct from its environment at a lower state of entropy than its surroundings, using energy from the environment for internal maintenance and activity, and capable of autonomous reproduction. These assumptions cover all of life as we know it, though more exotic entities can be envisioned, including organic forms with novel biochemistries, dynamic inorganic matter, and self-replicating machines. The probability that any particular form of life will be found on another planetary body depends on the nature and history of that alien world. So the biospheres would likely be very different on a rocky planet with an ice-covered global ocean, a barren planet devoid of surface liquid, a frigid world with abundant liquid hydrocarbons, on a rogue planet independent of a host star, on a tidally locked planet, on super-Earths, or in long-lived clouds in dense atmospheres. While life at least in microbial form is probably pervasive if rare throughout the Universe, and technologically advanced life is likely much rarer, the chance that an alternative form of life, though not intelligent life, could exist and be detected within our Solar System is a distinct possibility.

Habitable Climate Scenarios for Proxima Centauri b with a Dynamic Ocean

The nearby exoplanet Proxima Centauri b will be a prime future target for characterization, despite questions about its retention of water. Climate models with static oceans suggest that Proxima b could harbor a small dayside surface ocean despite its weak instellation. We present the first climate simulations of Proxima b with a dynamic ocean. We find that an ocean-covered Proxima b could have a much broader area of surface liquid water but at much colder temperatures than previously suggested, due to ocean heat transport and/or depression of the freezing point by salinity. Elevated greenhouse gas concentrations do not necessarily produce more open ocean because of dynamical regime transitions between a state with an equatorial Rossby-Kelvin wave pattern and a state with a day-night circulation. For an evolutionary path leading to a highly saline ocean, Proxima b could be an inhabited, mostly open ocean planet with halophilic life. A freshwater ocean produces a smaller liquid region than does an Earth salinity ocean. An ocean planet in 3:2 spin-orbit resonance has a permanent tropical waterbelt for moderate eccentricity. A larger versus smaller area of surface liquid water for similar equilibrium temperature may be distinguishable by using the amplitude of the thermal phase curve. Simulations of Proxima Centauri b may be a model for the habitability of weakly irradiated planets orbiting slightly cooler or warmer stars, for example, in the TRAPPIST-1, LHS 1140, GJ 273, and GJ 3293 systems.

Climates of Warm Earth-like Planets I: 3-D Model Simulations

We present a large ensemble of simulations of an Earth-like world with increasing insolation and rotation rate. Unlike previous work utilizing idealized aquaplanet configurations we focus our simulations on modern Earth-like topography. The orbital period is the same as modern Earth, but with zero obliquity and eccentricity. The atmosphere is 1 bar N2-dominated with CO2=400 ppmv and CH4=1 ppmv. The simulations include two types of oceans; one without ocean heat transport (OHT) between grid cells as has been commonly used in the exoplanet literature, while the other is a fully coupled dynamic bathtub type ocean. The dynamical regime transitions that occur as day length increases induce climate feedbacks producing cooler temperatures, first via the reduction of water vapor with increasing rotation period despite decreasing shortwave cooling by clouds, and then via decreasing water vapor and increasing shortwave cloud cooling, except at the highest insolations. Simulations without OHT are more sensitive to insolation changes for fast rotations while slower rotations are relatively insensitive to ocean choice. OHT runs with faster rotations tend to be similar with gyres transporting heat poleward making them warmer than those without OHT. For slower rotations OHT is directed equator-ward and no high latitude gyres are apparent. Uncertainties in cloud parameterization preclude a precise determination of habitability but do not affect robust aspects of exoplanet climate sensitivity. This is the first paper in a series that will investigate aspects of habitability in the simulations presented herein. The datasets from this study are opensource and publicly available.