Eta-Earth Revisited II: Deriving a Maximum Number of Earth-Like Habitats in the Galactic Disk

In Lammer et al. (2024), we defined Earth-like habitats (EHs) as rocky exoplanets within the habitable zone of complex life (HZCL) on which Earth-like N2-O2-dominated atmospheres with minor amounts of CO2 can exist, and derived a formulation for estimating the maximum number of EHs in the galaxy given realistic probabilistic requirements that have to be met for an EH to evolve. In this study, we apply this formulation to the galactic disk by considering only requirements that are already scientifically quantifiable. By implementing literature models for star formation rate, initial mass function, and the mass distribution of the Milky Way, we calculate the spatial distribution of disk stars as functions of stellar mass and birth age. For the stellar part of our formulation, we apply existing models for the galactic habitable zone and evaluate the thermal stability of nitrogen-dominated atmospheres with different CO2 mixing ratios inside the HZCL by implementing the newest stellar evolution and upper atmosphere models. For the planetary part, we include the frequency of rocky exoplanets, the availability of surface water and subaerial land, and the potential requirement of hosting a large moon by evaluating their importance and implementing these criteria from minima to maxima values as found in the scientific literature. We also discuss further factors that are not yet scientifically quantifiable but may be requirements for EHs to evolve. Based on such an approach, we find that EHs are relatively rare by obtaining plausible maximum numbers of 2.5 - 2.4 + 71.6 × 10 5 and 0.6 - 0.59 + 27.1 × 10 5 planets that can potentially host N2-O2-dominated atmospheres with maximum CO2 mixing ratios of 10% and 1%, respectively, implying that, on average, a minimum of ∼ 10 3 - 10 6 rocky exoplanets in the HZCL are needed for 1 EH to evolve. The actual number of EHs, however, may be substantially lower than our maximum ranges since several requirements with unknown occurrence rates are not included in our model (e.g., the origin of life, working carbon-silicate and nitrogen cycles); this also implies extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) to be significantly rarer still. Our results illustrate that not every star can host EHs nor can each rocky exoplanet within the HZCL evolve such that it might be able to host complex animal-like life or even ETIs. The Copernican Principle of Mediocrity therefore cannot be applied to infer that such life will be common in the galaxy.

Frontiers in Prebiotic Chemistry and Early Earth Environments

The Prebiotic Chemistry and Early Earth Environments (PCE₃) Consortium is a community of researchers seeking to understand the origins of life on Earth and in the universe. PCE₃ is one of five Research Coordination Networks (RCNs) within NASA’s Astrobiology Program. Here we report on the inaugural PCE₃ workshop, intended to cross-pollinate, transfer information, promote cooperation, break down disciplinary barriers, identify new directions, and foster collaborations. This workshop, entitled, “Building a New Foundation”, was designed to propagate current knowledge, identify possibilities for multidisciplinary collaboration, and ultimately define paths for future collaborations. Presentations addressed the likely conditions on early Earth in ways that could be incorporated into prebiotic chemistry experiments and conceptual models to improve their plausibility and accuracy. Additionally, the discussions that followed among workshop participants helped to identify within each subdiscipline particularly impactful new research directions. At its core, the foundational knowledge base presented in this workshop should underpin future workshops and enable collaborations that bridge the many disciplines that are part of PCE₃.

Nitrogen Fixation at Early Mars

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) recently discovered nitrates in Gale Crater (e.g., Stern et al., 2015; Sutter et al., 2017). One possible mechanism for ancient nitrate deposition on Mars is through HNOx formation and rain out in the atmosphere, for which lightning-induced NO is likely the fundamental source. This study investigates nitrogen (N₂) fixation in early Mars' atmosphere, with implications for early Mars' habitability. We consider a 1 bar atmosphere of background CO₂, with abundance of N₂, hydrogen, and methane varied from 1% to 10% to explore a swath of potential early Mars climates. We derive lightning-induced thermochemical equilibrium fluxes of NO and HCN by coupling the lightning-rate parametrization from the study of Romps et al. (2014) with chemical equilibrium with applications, and we use a Geant4 simulation platform to estimate the effect of solar energetic particle events. These fluxes are used as input into KINETICS, the Caltech/JPL coupled photochemistry and transport code, which models the chemistry of 50 species linked by 495 reactions to derive rain-out fluxes of HNOx and HCN. We compute equilibrium concentrations of cyanide and nitrate in a putative northern ocean at early Mars, assuming hydrothermal vent circulation and photoreduction act as the dominant loss mechanisms. We find average oceanic concentrations of ∼0.1-2 nM nitrate and ∼0.01-2 mM cyanide. HCN is critical for protein synthesis at concentrations >0.01 M (e.g., Holm and Neubeck, 2009), and our result is astrobiologically significant if secondary local concentration mechanisms occurred. Nitrates may act as high-potential electron acceptors for early metabolisms, although the minimum concentration required is unknown. Our study derives concentrations that will be useful for future laboratory studies to investigate the habitability at early Mars. The aqueous nitrate concentrations correspond to surface nitrate precipitates of ∼1-8 × 10^-4 wt % that may have formed after the evaporation of surface waters, and these values roughly agree with recent MSL measurements.

Some generic measures of the extent of chemical disequilibrium applied to living and abiotic systems

We report results of evaluation of several measures of chemical disequilibrium in living and abiotic systems. The previously defined measures include R_{T} and R_{L}, which are Euclidean distances of a coarse grained polymer length distribution from two different chemical equilibrium states associated with equilibration to an external temperature bath and with isolated equilibration to a distribution determined by the bond energy of the system, respectively. The determination uses a simplified description of the energetics of the constituent molecules. We evaluated the measures for data from the ribosome of E. coli, a variety of yeast, and the proteomes (with certain assumptions) of a large family of prokaryotes, and for mass spectrometric data from the atmosphere of the Saturn satellite Titan and for nonliving commercial copolymers. We find with surprising consistency that R_{L} is much smaller than R_{T} for all these systems. The living (protein) systems have a well defined value of R_{T} that is sharply defined and distinct from that obtained from the nonliving Titan and copolymer systems. The living systems are also distinguishably characterized by larger values of R_{L} than most of the nonliving systems, but R_{L} values vary more from one living system to another than the R_{T} values do. These data suggest that the measures R_{L} and R_{T} can distinguish living from nonliving systems.

Relative Likelihood of Success in the Search for Primitive versus Intelligent Extraterrestrial Life

We estimate the relative likelihood of success in the searches for primitive versus intelligent life on other planets. Taking into account the larger search volume for detectable artificial electromagnetic signals, we conclude that both searches should be performed concurrently, albeit with significantly more funding dedicated to primitive life. Based on the current federal funding allocated to the search for biosignatures, our analysis suggests that the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) may merit a federal funding level of at least $10 million per year, assuming that the average lifetime of technological species exceeds a millennium.