Incorporating epistasis interaction of genetic susceptibility single nucleotide polymorphisms in a lung cancer risk prediction model

SNPs-Panel Polymorphism Variations in GHRL and GHSR Genes Are Not Associated with Prostate Cancer

Prostate cancer (PCa) is a major public health problem worldwide. Recent studies have suggested that ghrelin and its receptor could be involved in the susceptibility to several cancers such as PCa, leading to their use as an important predictive way for the clinical progression and prognosis of cancer. However, conflicting results of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with ghrelin (GHRL) and its receptor (GHSR) genes were demonstrated in different studies. Thus, the present case-control study was undertaken to investigate the association of GHRL and GHSR polymorphisms with the susceptibility to sporadic PCa. A cohort of 120 PCa patients and 95 healthy subjects were enrolled in this study. Genotyping of six SNPs was performed: three tag SNPs in GHRL (rs696217, rs4684677, rs3491141) and three tag SNPs in the GHSR (rs2922126, rs572169, rs2948694) using TaqMan. The allele and genotype distribution, as well as haplotypes frequencies and linked disequilibrium (LD), were established. Multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) analysis was used to study gene-gene interactions between the six SNPs. Our results showed no significant association of the target polymorphisms with PCa (p > 0.05). Nevertheless, SNPs are often just markers that help identify or delimit specific genomic regions that may harbour functional variants rather than the variants causing the disease. Furthermore, we found that one GHSR rs2922126, namely the TT genotype, was significantly more frequent in PCa patients than in controls (p = 0.040). These data suggest that this genotype could be a PCa susceptibility genotype. MDR analyses revealed that the rs2922126 and rs572169 combination was the best model, with 81.08% accuracy (p = 0.0001) for predicting susceptibility to PCa. The results also showed a precision of 98.1% (p < 0.0001) and a PR-AUC of 1.00. Our findings provide new insights into the influence of GHRL and GHSR polymorphisms and significant evidence for gene-gene interactions in PCa susceptibility, and they may guide clinical decision-making to prevent overtreatment and enhance patients' quality of life.

[Construction of a Risk Prediction Model for Lung Cancer Based on Lifestyle Behaviors in the UK Biobank Large-Scale Population Cohort]

Objective

To identify the risk factors related to lifestyle behaviors that affect the incidence of lung cancer, to build a lung cancer risk prediction model to identify, in the population, individuals who are at high risk, and to facilitate the early detection of lung cancer.

Methods

The data used in the study were obtained from the UK Biobank, a database that contains information collected from 502 389 participants between March 2006 and October 2010. Based on domestic and international guidelines for lung cancer screening and high-quality research literature on lung cancer risk factors, high-risk population identification criteria were determined. Univariate Cox regression was performed to screen for risk factors of lung cancer and a multifactor lung cancer risk prediction model was constructed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Based on the comparison of Akaike information criterion and Schoenfeld residual test results, the optimal fitted model assuming proportional hazards was selected. The multiple factor Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to consider the survival time and the population was randomly divided into a training set and a validation set by a ratio of 7:3. The model was built using the training set and the performance of the model was internally validated using the validation set. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve ( AUC) was used to evaluate the efficacy of the model. The population was categorized into low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-risk groups based on the probability of occurrence of 0% to <25%, 25% to <75%, and 75% to 100%. The respective proportions of affected individuals in each risk group were calculated.

Results

The study eventually covered 453 558 individuals, and out of the cumulative follow-up of 5 505 402 person-years, a total of 2 330 cases of lung cancer were diagnosed. Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to identify 10 independent variables as predictors of lung cancer, including age, body mass index (BMI), education, income, physical activity, smoking status, alcohol consumption frequency, fresh fruit intake, family history of cancer, and tobacco exposure, and a model was established accordingly. Internal validation results showed that 8 independent variables (all the 10 independent variables screened out except for BMI and fresh fruit intake) were significant influencing factors of lung cancer ( P<0.05). The AUC of the training set for predicting lung cancer occurrence at one year, five years, and ten years were 0.825, 0.785, and 0.777, respectively. The AUC of the validation set for predicting lung cancer occurrence at one year, five years, and ten years were 0.857, 0.782, and 0.765, respectively. 68.38% of the individuals who might develop lung cancer in the future could be identified by screening the high-risk population.

Conclusion

We established, in this study, a model for predicting lung cancer risks associated with lifestyle behaviors of a large population. Showing good performance in discriminatory ability, the model can be used as a tool for developing standardized screening strategies for lung cancer.

The value of blood-based measures of liver function and urate in lung cancer risk prediction: A cohort study and health economic analysis

BACKGROUND

Several studies have reported associations between low-cost blood-based measurements and lung cancer but their role in risk prediction is unclear. We examined the value of expanding lung cancer risk models for targeting low-dose computed tomography (LDCT), including blood measurements of liver function and urate.

METHODS

We analysed a cohort of 388,199 UK Biobank participants with 1873 events and calculated the c-index and fraction of new information (FNI) for models expanded to include combinations of blood measurements, lung function (forced expiratory volume in 1 s - FEV1), alcohol status and waist circumference. We calculated the hypothetical cost per lung cancer case detected by LDCT for different scenarios using a threshold of ≥ 1.51 % risk at 6 years.

RESULTS

The c-index was 0.805 (95 %CI:0.794-0.816) for the model containing conventional predictors. Expanding to include blood measurements increased the c-index to 0.815 (95 %CI: 0.804-0.826;p < 0.0001;FNI:0.06). Expanding to include FEV1, alcohol status, and waist circumference increased the c-index to 0.811 (95 %CI: 0.800-0.822;p < 0.0001;FNI: 0.04). The c-index for the fully expanded model containing all variables was 0.819 (95 %CI:0.808-0.830;p < 0.0001;FNI:0.09). Model expansion had a greater impact on the c-index and FNI for people with a history of smoking cigarettes relative to the full cohort. Compared with the conventional risk model, the expanded models reduced the number of participants meeting the criteria for LDCT screening by 15-21 %, and lung cancer cases detected by 7-8 %. The additional cost per lung cancer case detected relative to the conventional model was £ 1018 for adding blood tests and £ 9775 for the fully expanded model.

CONCLUSION

Blood measurements of liver function and urate made a modest improvement to lung cancer risk prediction compared with a model containing conventional risk factors. There was no evidence that model expansion would improve the cost per lung cancer case detected in UK healthcare settings.

Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Nomogram in Nonsmoking Chinese Women: Retrospective Cross-sectional Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

It is believed that smoking is not the cause of approximately 53% of lung cancers diagnosed in women globally.

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed to develop and validate a simple and noninvasive model that could assess and stratify lung cancer risk in nonsmoking Chinese women.

METHODS

Based on the population-based Cancer Screening Program in Urban China, this retrospective, cross-sectional cohort study was carried out with a vast population base and an immense number of participants. The training set and the validation set were both constructed using a random distribution of the data. Following the identification of associated risk factors by multivariable Cox regression analysis, a predictive nomogram was developed. Discrimination (area under the curve) and calibration were further performed to assess the validation of risk prediction nomogram in the training set, which was then validated in the validation set.

RESULTS

In sum, 151,834 individuals signed up to take part in the survey. Both the training set (n=75,917) and the validation set (n=75,917) were comprised of randomly selected participants. Potential predictors for lung cancer included age, history of chronic respiratory disease, first-degree family history of lung cancer, menopause, and history of benign breast disease. We displayed 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year lung cancer risk-predicting nomograms using these 5 factors. In the training set, the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year lung cancer risk areas under the curve were 0.762, 0.718, and 0.703, respectively. In the validation set, the model showed a moderate predictive discrimination.

CONCLUSIONS

We designed and validated a simple and noninvasive lung cancer risk model for nonsmoking women. This model can be applied to identify and triage people at high risk for developing lung cancers among nonsmoking women.

Prediction of lung cancer risk in Chinese population with genetic-environment factor using extreme gradient boosting

BACKGROUND

Detecting early-stage lung cancer is critical to reduce the lung cancer mortality rate; however, existing models based on germline variants perform poorly, and new models are needed. This study aimed to use extreme gradient boosting to develop a predictive model for the early diagnosis of lung cancer in a multicenter case-control study.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 974 cases and 1005 controls in Shanghai and Taizhou were recruited, and 61 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped. Multivariate logistic regression was used to calculate the association between signal SNPs and lung cancer risk. Logistic regression (LR) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithms, a large-scale machine learning algorithm, were adopted to build the lung cancer risk model. In both models, 10-fold cross-validation was performed, and model predictive performance was evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

After FDR adjustment, TYMS rs3819102 and BAG6 rs1077393 were significantly associated with lung cancer risk (p < 0.05). For lung cancer risk prediction, the model predicted only with epidemiology attained an AUC of 0.703 for LR and 0.744 for XGBoost. Compared with the LR model predicted only with epidemiology, further adding SNPs and applying XGBoost increased the AUC to 0.759 (p < 0.001) in the XGBoost model. BAG6 rs1077393 was the most important predictor among all SNPs in the lung cancer prediction XGBoost model, followed by TERT rs2735845 and CAMKK1 rs7214723. Further stratification in lung adenocarcinoma (ADC) showed a significantly elevated performance from 0.639 to 0.699 (p = 0.009) when applying XGBoost and adding SNPs to the model, while the best model for lung squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) prediction was the LR model predicted with epidemiology and SNPs (AUC = 0.833), compared with the XGBoost model (AUC = 0.816).

CONCLUSION

Our lung cancer risk prediction models in the Chinese population have a strong predictive ability, especially for SCC. Adding SNPs and applying the XGBoost algorithm to the epidemiologic-based logistic regression risk prediction model significantly improves model performance.

Construction and Validation of a Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Model for Non-Smokers in China

Background

About 15% of lung cancers in men and 53% in women are not attributable to smoking worldwide. The aim was to develop and validate a simple and non-invasive model which could assess and stratify lung cancer risk in non-smokers in China.

Methods

A large-sample size, population-based study was conducted under the framework of the Cancer Screening Program in Urban China (CanSPUC). Data on the lung cancer screening in Henan province, China, from October 2013 to October 2019 were used and randomly divided into the training and validation sets. Related risk factors were identified through multivariable Cox regression analysis, followed by establishment of risk prediction nomogram. Discrimination [area under the curve (AUC)] and calibration were further performed to assess the validation of risk prediction nomogram in the training set, and then validated by the validation set.

Results

A total of 214,764 eligible subjects were included, with a mean age of 55.19 years. Subjects were randomly divided into the training (107,382) and validation (107,382) sets. Elder age, being male, a low education level, family history of lung cancer, history of tuberculosis, and without a history of hyperlipidemia were the independent risk factors for lung cancer. Using these six variables, we plotted 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year lung cancer risk prediction nomogram. The AUC was 0.753, 0.752, and 0.755 for the 1-, 3- and 5-year lung cancer risk in the training set, respectively. In the validation set, the model showed a moderate predictive discrimination, with the AUC was 0.668, 0.678, and 0.685 for the 1-, 3- and 5-year lung cancer risk.

Conclusions

We developed and validated a simple and non-invasive lung cancer risk model in non-smokers. This model can be applied to identify and triage patients at high risk for developing lung cancers in non-smokers.

A risk prediction model for selecting high-risk population for computed tomography lung cancer screening in China

OBJECTIVE

Two large randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have demonstrated that low dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening reduces lung cancer mortality. Risk-prediction models have been proved to select individuals for lung cancer screening effectively. With the focus on established risk factors for lung cancer routinely available in general cancer screening settings, we aimed to develop and internally validated a risk prediction model for lung cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using data from the Cancer Screening Program in Urban China (CanSPUC) in Henan province, China between 2013 and 2019, we conducted a prospective cohort study consisting of 282,254 participants including 126,445 males and 155,809 females. Detailed questionnaire, physical assessment and follow-up were completed for all participants. Using Cox proportional risk regression analysis, we developed the Henan Lung Cancer Risk Models based on simplified questionnaire. Model discrimination was evaluated by concordance statistics (C-statistics), and model calibration was evaluated by the bootstrap sampling, respectively.

RESULTS

By 2020, a total of 589 lung cancer cases occurred in the follow-up yielding an incident density of 64.91/100,000 person-years (pyrs). Age, gender, smoking, history of tuberculosis and history of emphysema were included into the model. The C-index of the model for 1-year lung cancer risk was 0.766 and 0.741 in the training set and validation set, respectively. In stratified analysis, the model showed better predictive power in males, younger participants, and former or current smoking participants. The model calibrated well across the deciles of predicted risk in both the overall population and all subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and internally validated a simple risk prediction model for lung cancer, which may be useful to identify high-risk individuals for more intensive screening for cancer prevention.

Interleukin polymorphisms and protein levels associated with lung cancer susceptibility and phenotypes

BACKGROUND

We conducted a comprehensive analysis to explore whether multiple interleukin (IL), IL-1β, IL-4, IL-6, IL-8 and IL-10, polymorphisms and IL proteins (IL-6, IL-10) relate to lung cancer (LC) susceptibility or clinical characteristics.

METHODS

We performed the standard meta-analysis procedures according to PRISMA. The odds ratio (OR) and mean difference (MD) were used for analysis.

RESULTS

We investigated 11 variants from 43 articles, and found that IL-1β rs16944 (p = 0.04) and IL-10 rs1800872 (p = 0.003) decreased while IL-10 rs1800896 (p = 0.007) increased LC risks. We also found that IL-1β rs1143627 decreased NSCLC risks (p = 0.03). The heterozygotes and homozygotes contributed differently. In addition, another 15 articles were involved to explore the relationship between IL proteins and LC. We found that LC patients accounted for higher serum IL-6 of 16.60 pg/mL (p < 0.00001) and higher serum IL-10 of 3.47 pg/mL (p = 0.02) than that of controls. Furthermore, IIIA-Ⅳ LC patients tended to have higher proportion of positive IL-6 staining in lung tumor tissue in contrast with IA-IIB patients by TNM stage (p = 0.0002).

CONCLUSIONS

Four variants from IL-1β and IL-10, and serum IL-6 and IL-10 levels are associated with LC risks.

Genetic interactions effects for cancer disease identification using computational models: a review

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) provide clear insight into understanding genetic variations and environmental influences responsible for various human diseases. Cancer identification through genetic interactions (epistasis) is one of the significant ongoing researches in GWAS. The growth of the cancer cell emerges from multi-locus as well as complex genetic interaction. It is impractical for the physician to detect cancer via manual examination of SNPs interaction. Due to its importance, several computational approaches have been modeled to infer epistasis effects. This article includes a comprehensive and multifaceted review of all relevant genetic studies published between 2001 and 2020. In this contemporary review, various computational methods are as follows: multifactor dimensionality reduction-based approaches, statistical strategies, machine learning, and optimization-based techniques are carefully reviewed and presented with their evaluation results. Moreover, these computational approaches' strengths and limitations are described. The issues behind the computational methods for identifying the cancer disease through genetic interactions and the various evaluation parameters used by researchers have been analyzed. This review is highly beneficial for researchers and medical professionals to learn techniques adapted to discover the epistasis and aids to design novel automatic epistasis detection systems with strong robustness and maximum efficiency to address the different research problems in finding practical solutions effectively.

Targeting lung cancer screening to individuals at greatest risk: the role of genetic factors

Lung cancer (LC) is the most common global cancer. An individual’s risk of developing LC is mediated by an array of factors, including family history of the disease. Considerable research into genetic risk factors for LC has taken place in recent years, with both low-penetrance and high-penetrance variants implicated in increasing or decreasing a person’s risk of the disease. LC is the leading cause of cancer death worldwide; poor survival is driven by late onset of non-specific symptoms, resulting in late-stage diagnoses. Evidence for the efficacy of screening in detecting cancer earlier, thereby reducing lung-cancer specific mortality, is now well established. To ensure the cost-effectiveness of a screening programme and to limit the potential harms to participants, a risk threshold for screening eligibility is required. Risk prediction models (RPMs), which provide an individual’s personal risk of LC over a particular period based on a large number of risk factors, may improve the selection of high-risk individuals for LC screening when compared with generalised eligibility criteria that only consider smoking history and age. No currently used RPM integrates genetic risk factors into its calculation of risk. This review provides an overview of the evidence for LC screening, screening related harms and the use of RPMs in screening cohort selection. It gives a synopsis of the known genetic risk factors for lung cancer and discusses the evidence for including them in RPMs, focusing in particular on the use of polygenic risk scores to increase the accuracy of targeted lung cancer screening.

Risk prediction model for lung cancer incorporating metabolic markers: Development and internal validation in a Chinese population

BACKGROUND

Low-dose computed tomography screening has been proved to reduce lung cancer mortality, however, the issues of high false-positive rate and overdiagnosis remain unsolved. Risk prediction models for lung cancer that could accurately identify high-risk populations may help to increase efficiency. We thus sought to develop a risk prediction model for lung cancer incorporating epidemiological and metabolic markers in a Chinese population.

METHODS

During 2006 and 2015, a total of 122 497 people were observed prospectively for lung cancer incidence with the total person-years of 976 663. Stepwise multivariable-adjusted logistic regressions with P_entry  = .15 and P_stay  = .20 were conducted to select the candidate variables including demographics and metabolic markers such as high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) into the prediction model. We used the C-statistic to evaluate discrimination, and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests for calibration. Tenfold cross-validation was conducted for internal validation to assess the model's stability.

RESULTS

A total of 984 lung cancer cases were identified during the follow-up. The epidemiological model including age, gender, smoking status, alcohol intake status, coal dust exposure status, and body mass index generated a C-statistic of 0.731. The full model additionally included hsCRP and LDL-C showed significantly better discrimination (C-statistic = 0.735, P = .033). In stratified analysis, the full model showed better predictive power in terms of C-statistic in younger participants (<50 years, 0.709), females (0.726), and former or current smokers (0.742). The model calibrated well across the deciles of predicted risk in both the overall population (P_HL  = .689) and all subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and internally validated an easy-to-use risk prediction model for lung cancer among the Chinese population that could provide guidance for screening and surveillance.

Sex-specific SNP-SNP interaction analyses within topologically associated domains reveals ANGPT1 as a novel tumor suppressor gene for lung cancer

Genetic interaction has been recognized to be an important cause of the missing heritability. The topologically associating domain (TAD) is a self-interacting genomic region, and the DNA sequences within a TAD physically interact with each other more frequently. Sex differences influence cancer susceptibility at the genetic level. Here, we performed both regular and sex-specific genetic interaction analyses within TAD to identify susceptibility genes for lung cancer in 5204 lung cancer patients and 7389 controls. We found that one SNP pair, rs4262299-rs1654701, was associated with lung cancer in women after multiple testing corrections (combined P = 8.52 × 10^-9 ). Single-SNP analyses did not detect significant association signals for these two SNPs. Both identified SNPs are located in the intron region of ANGPT1. We further found that 5% of nonsmall cell lung cancer patients have an alteration in ANGPT1, indicated the potential role of ANGPT1 in the neoplastic progression in lung cancer. The expression of ANGPT1 was significantly down-regulated in patients in lung squamous cell carcinoma and lung adenocarcinoma. We checked the interaction effect on the ANGPT1 expression and lung cancer and found that the minor allele "G" of rs1654701 increased ANGPT1 gene expression and decreased lung cancer risk with the increased dosage of "A" of rs4262299, which consistent with the tumor suppressor function of ANGPT1. Survival analyses found that the high expression of ANGPT1 was individually associated with a higher survival probability in lung cancer patients. In summary, our results suggest that ANGPT1 may be a novel tumor suppressor gene for lung cancer.

Implementation planning for lung cancer screening in China

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related deaths in China, with over 690 000 lung cancer deaths estimated in 2018. The mortality has increased about five-fold from the mid-1970s to the 2000s. Lung cancer low-dose computerized tomography (LDCT) screening in smokers was shown to improve survival in the US National Lung Screening Trial, and more recently in the European NELSON trial. However, although the predominant risk factor, smoking contributes to a lower fraction of lung cancers in China than in the UK and USA. Therefore, it is necessary to establish Chinese-specific screening strategies. There have been 23 associated programmes completed or still ongoing in China since the 1980s, mainly after 2000; and one has recently been planned. Generally, their entry criteria are not smoking-stringent. Most of the Chinese programmes have reported preliminary results only, which demonstrated a different high-risk subpopulation of lung cancer in China. Evidence concerning LDCT screening implementation is based on results of randomized controlled trials outside China. LDCT screening programmes combining tobacco control would produce more benefits. Population recruitment (e.g. risk-based selection), screening protocol, nodule management and cost-effectiveness are discussed in detail. In China, the high-risk subpopulation eligible for lung cancer screening has not as yet been confirmed, as all the risk parameters have not as yet been determined. Although evidence on best practice for implementation of lung cancer screening has been accumulating in other countries, further research in China is urgently required, as China is now facing a lung cancer epidemic.

Epistasis analysis of metabolic genes polymorphisms associated with ischemic heart disease in Yucatan

OBJECTIVE

Epistasis is a type of genetic interaction that could explain much of the phenotypic variability of complex diseases. In this work, the effect of epistasis of metabolic genes and cardiovascular risk on the susceptibility to the development of ischemic heart disease in Yucatan was determined.

METHODS

Case-control study in 79 Yucatecan patients with ischemic heart disease and 101 healthy controls matched by age and origin with cases. The polymorphisms -108CT, Q192R, L55M (paraoxonase 1; PON1), C677T, A1298C (methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase; MTHFR), and the presence/absence of the glutathione S-transferase T1 (GSTT1) gene were genotyped. Epistasis analysis was performed using the multifactorial dimensional reduction method. The best risk prediction model was selected based on precision (%), statistical significance (P<0.05), and cross-validation consistency.

RESULTS

We found an independent association of the null genotype GSTT1*0/0 (OR=3.39, CI: 1.29-8.87, P=0.017) and the null allele (OR=1.86, CI: 1.19-2.91, P=0.007) with ischemic heart disease. The GSTT1*0 deletion and the 677TT genotype (MTHFR) were identified as being at a high cardiovascular risk, whereas the GSTT1*1 wild type genotype and the CC677 variant were at low risk. The gene-environment interaction identified the GSTT1 gene, C677T polymorphism (MTHFR), and hypertension as the factors that best explain ischemic heart disease in the study population.

CONCLUSIONS

The interaction of the MTHFR, GSTT1 and hypertension may constitute a predictive model of risk for early onset ischemic heart disease in the population of Yucatan.

A meta-analytic review of the association between two common SNPs in miRNAs and lung cancer susceptibility

Background

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are involved in many biological processes, including tumor suppression. Multiple studies have shown an association between the miRNA-196a2 rs11614913 and miRNA-146a rs2910164 polymorphisms and cancer risk. However, the implications of the reported data are debatable and inconclusive.

Materials and methods

Relevant articles were retrieved from the PubMed, EMBASE, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, and WanFang databases from January 1, 2007, to April 30, 2017. Studies were assessed based on designated inclusion and exclusion criteria, and data were manually extracted from relevant studies by two investigators. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to explore the association between two single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in miRNAs and lung cancer susceptibility.

Results

Nine eligible articles were included, consisting of 3,101 cancer cases and 3,234 controls for miRNA-196a2 rs11614913, and 3,483 cases and 3,578 controls for miRNA-146a rs2910164. For studies evaluating miRNA-196a2 rs11614913, significant associations with lung cancer risk were discovered. Overall, the pooled analysis showed that miRNA-196a2 rs11614913 was associated with a decreased cancer risk (CC vs TT: OR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.09–1.44; CT vs TT: OR = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.03–1.53). For miRNA-146a rs2910164, only the CC genotype was found to be associated with high lung cancer risk (OR = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.13–1.49). Subgroup analyses based on ethnicity, source of control group, and country indicated that there were strong associations between miRNA-146a rs2910164 and cancer risk.

Conclusion

The results indicated that lung cancer risk was significantly associated with miRNA-196a2 rs11614913 and miRNA-146a rs2910164. These two common SNPs in miRNAs may be potential biomarkers of lung cancer.

Applying Risk Prediction Models to Optimize Lung Cancer Screening: Current Knowledge, Challenges, and Future Directions

Purpose of review

Risk prediction models may be useful for facilitating effective and high-quality decision-making at critical steps in the lung cancer screening process. This review provides a current overview of published lung cancer risk prediction models and their applications to lung cancer screening and highlights both challenges and strategies for improving their predictive performance and use in clinical practice.

Recent findings

Since the 2011 publication of the National Lung Screening Trial results, numerous prediction models have been proposed to estimate the probability of developing or dying from lung cancer or the probability that a pulmonary nodule is malignant. Respective models appear to exhibit high discriminatory accuracy in identifying individuals at highest risk of lung cancer or differentiating malignant from benign pulmonary nodules. However, validation and critical comparison of the performance of these models in independent populations are limited. Little is also known about the extent to which risk prediction models are being applied in clinical practice and influencing decision-making processes and outcomes related to lung cancer screening.

Summary

Current evidence is insufficient to determine which lung cancer risk prediction models are most clinically useful and how to best implement their use to optimize screening effectiveness and quality. To address these knowledge gaps, future research should be directed toward validating and enhancing existing risk prediction models for lung cancer and evaluating the application of model-based risk calculators and its corresponding impact on screening processes and outcomes.