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Uden DR, Mech AM, Havill NP, Schulz AN, Ayres MP, Herms DA, Hoover AM, Gandhi KJK, Hufbauer RA, Liebhold AM, Marsico TD, Raffa KF, Thomas KA, Tobin PC, Allen CR. Phylogenetic risk assessment is robust for forecasting the impact of European insects on North American conifers. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2023; 33:e2761. [PMID: 36218183 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2761] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2022] [Revised: 08/03/2022] [Accepted: 08/05/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Some introduced species cause severe damage, although the majority have little impact. Robust predictions of which species are most likely to cause substantial impacts could focus efforts to mitigate those impacts or prevent certain invasions entirely. Introduced herbivorous insects can reduce crop yield, fundamentally alter natural and managed forest ecosystems, and are unique among invasive species in that they require certain host plants to succeed. Recent studies have demonstrated that understanding the evolutionary history of introduced herbivores and their host plants can provide robust predictions of impact. Specifically, divergence times between hosts in the native and introduced ranges of a nonnative insect can be used to predict the potential impact of the insect should it establish in a novel ecosystem. However, divergence time estimates vary among published phylogenetic datasets, making it crucial to understand if and how the choice of phylogeny affects prediction of impact. Here, we tested the robustness of impact prediction to variation in host phylogeny by using insects that feed on conifers and predicting the likelihood of high impact using four different published phylogenies. Our analyses ranked 62 insects that are not established in North America and 47 North American conifer species according to overall risk and vulnerability, respectively. We found that results were robust to the choice of phylogeny. Although published vascular plant phylogenies continue to be refined, our analysis indicates that those differences are not substantial enough to alter the predictions of invader impact. Our results can assist in focusing biosecurity programs for conifer pests and can be more generally applied to nonnative insects and their potential hosts by prioritizing surveillance for those insects most likely to be damaging invaders.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel R Uden
- School of Natural Resources, Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, Center for Resilience in Agricultural Working Landscapes, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska, USA
| | - Angela M Mech
- School of Biology and Ecology, University of Maine, Orono, Maine, USA
| | - Nathan P Havill
- Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Hamden, Connecticut, USA
| | - Ashley N Schulz
- Department of Agricultural Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
- Department of Forestry, Mississippi State University, Starkville, Mississippi, USA
| | - Matthew P Ayres
- Department of Biological Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire, USA
| | | | - Angela M Hoover
- U.S. Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Kamal J K Gandhi
- D.B. Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA
| | - Ruth A Hufbauer
- Department of Agricultural Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Andrew M Liebhold
- USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station, Morgantown, West Virginia, USA
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Travis D Marsico
- Department of Biological Sciences, Arkansas State University, Jonesboro, Arkansas, USA
| | - Kenneth F Raffa
- Department of Entomology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
| | - Kathryn A Thomas
- U.S. Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Patrick C Tobin
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Craig R Allen
- School of Natural Resources, Center for Resilience in Agricultural Working Landscapes, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska, USA
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Schulz AN, Mech AM, Ayres MP, Gandhi KJK, Havill NP, Herms DA, Hoover AM, Hufbauer RA, Liebhold AM, Marsico TD, Raffa KF, Tobin PC, Uden DR, Thomas KA. Predicting non-native insect impact: focusing on the trees to see the forest. Biol Invasions 2021. [DOI: 10.1007/s10530-021-02621-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
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