Dynamics of transmission of COVID-19 cases and household contacts: A prospective cohort study

Risk factors of infection among close contacts of COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first detected in December 2019, and declared as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020. The current management of COVID-19 is based generally on supportive therapy and treatment to prevent respiratory failure.

METHODS

PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, CNKI, and other databases were searched by computer, and relevant literature published from December 2019 to November 2022 on the influencing factors of infection in close contacts with novel coronavirus pneumonia was collected. Meta-analysis was carried out after literature screening, quality assessment, and data extraction.

RESULTS

A total of 425 articles were retrieved and 11 were included. Meta-analysis showed that there were 6 risk factors, and the combined OR value and 95% CI of each influencing factor were 5.23 (3.20, 8.57) for family members, 1.63 (0.56, 4.77) for regular contact, 2.14 (0.62, 7.32) for the elderly, 0.58 (0.001569.89) for cohabitation, 1.97 (1.02, 3.82) for women and 0.75 (0.01, 54.07) for others. The Deeks' funnel diagram indicates that there is no potential publication bias among the included studies.

CONCLUSION

Family members and gender differences are the risk factors of infection among close contacts, and it cannot be proved that there are differences in infection among frequent contact, advanced age, and living together.

The role of children in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern within households: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis, as at 30 June 2022

BackgroundMeta-analyses and single-site studies have established that children are less infectious than adults within a household when positive for ancestral SARS-CoV-2. In addition, children appear less susceptible to infection when exposed to ancestral SARS-CoV-2 within a household. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) has been associated with an increased number of paediatric infections worldwide. However, the role of children in the household transmission of VOC, relative to the ancestral virus, remains unclear.AimWe aimed to evaluate children's role in household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 VOC.MethodsWe perform a meta-analysis of the role of children in household transmission of both ancestral SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-2 VOC.ResultsUnlike with the ancestral virus, children infected with VOC spread SARS-CoV-2 to an equivalent number of household contacts as infected adults and were equally as likely to acquire SARS-CoV-2 VOC from an infected family member. Interestingly, the same was observed when unvaccinated children exposed to VOC were compared with unvaccinated adults exposed to VOC.ConclusionsThese data suggest that the emergence of VOC was associated with a fundamental shift in the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. It is unlikely that this is solely the result of age-dependent differences in vaccination during the VOC period and may instead reflect virus evolution over the course of the pandemic.

Association Between Population-Level Factors and Household Secondary Attack Rate of SARS-CoV-2: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background

Accurate estimation of household secondary attack rate (SAR) is crucial to understand the transmissibility of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The impact of population-level factors, such as transmission intensity in the community, on SAR estimates is rarely explored.

Methods

In this study, we included articles with original data to compute the household SAR. To determine the impact of transmission intensity in the community on household SAR estimates, we explored the association between SAR estimates and the incidence rate of cases by country during the study period.

Results

We identified 163 studies to extract data on SARs from 326 031 cases and 2 009 859 household contacts. The correlation between the incidence rate of cases during the study period and SAR estimates was 0.37 (95% CI, 0.24-0.49). We found that doubling the incidence rate of cases during the study period was associated with a 1.2% (95% CI, 0.5%-1.8%) higher household SAR.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that the incidence rate of cases during the study period is associated with higher SAR. Ignoring this factor may overestimate SARs, especially for regions with high incidences, which further impacts control policies and epidemiological characterization of emerging variants.

Household Secondary Attack Rates of SARS-CoV-2 by Variant and Vaccination Status: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

An overall household secondary attack rate (SAR) of 18.9% (95% CI, 16.2%-22.0%) through June 17, 2021 was previously reported for SARS-CoV-2. Emerging variants of concern and increased vaccination have affected transmission rates.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate how reported household SARs changed over time and whether SARs varied by viral variant and index case and contact vaccination status.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed and medRxiv from June 18, 2021, through March 8, 2022, and reference lists of eligible articles. Preprints were included.

STUDY SELECTION

Articles with original data reporting the number of infected and total number of household contacts. Search terms included SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, variant, vaccination, secondary attack rate, secondary infection rate, household, index case, family contacts, close contacts, and family transmission.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses reporting guideline was followed. Meta-analyses used generalized linear mixed models to obtain SAR estimates and 95% CIs.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

SAR stratified by covariates according to variant, index case and contact vaccination status, and index case identification period. SARs were used to estimate vaccine effectiveness on the basis of the transmission probability for susceptibility to infection (VES,p), infectiousness given infection (VEI,p), and total vaccine effectiveness (VET,p).

RESULTS

Household SARs were higher for 33 studies with midpoints in 2021 to 2022 (37.3%; 95% CI, 32.7% to 42.1%) compared with 63 studies with midpoints through April 2020 (15.5%; 95% CI, 13.2% to 18.2%). Household SARs were 42.7% (95% CI, 35.4% to 50.4%) for Omicron (7 studies), 36.4% (95% CI, 33.4% to 39.5%) for Alpha (11 studies), 29.7% (95% CI, 23.0% to 37.3%) for Delta (16 studies), and 22.5% (95% CI, 18.6% to 26.8%) for Beta (3 studies). For full vaccination, VES,p was 78.6% (95% CI, 76.0% to 80.9%) for Alpha, 56.4% (95% CI, 54.6% to 58.1%) for Delta, and 18.1% (95% CI, -18.3% to 43.3%) for Omicron; VEI,p was 75.3% (95% CI, 69.9% to 79.8%) for Alpha, 21.9% (95% CI, 11.0% to 31.5%) for Delta, and 18.2% (95% CI, 0.6% to 32.6%) for Omicron; and VET,p was 94.7% (95% CI, 93.3% to 95.8%) for Alpha, 64.4% (95% CI, 58.0% to 69.8%) for Delta, and 35.8% (95% CI, 13.0% to 52.6%) for Omicron.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These results suggest that emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have increased transmissibility. Full vaccination was associated with reductions in susceptibility and infectiousness, but more so for Alpha than Delta and Omicron. The changes in estimated vaccine effectiveness underscore the challenges of developing effective vaccines concomitant with viral evolution.

Household secondary attack rates of SARS-CoV-2 by variant and vaccination status: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis

We previously reported a household secondary attack rate (SAR) for SARS-CoV-2 of 18.9% through June 17, 2021. To examine how emerging variants and increased vaccination have affected transmission rates, we searched PubMed from June 18, 2021, through January 7, 2022. Meta-analyses used generalized linear mixed models to obtain SAR estimates and 95%CI, disaggregated by several covariates. SARs were used to estimate vaccine effectiveness based on the transmission probability for susceptibility ( VE S,p ), infectiousness ( VE I,p ), and total vaccine effectiveness ( VE T,p ). Household SAR for 27 studies with midpoints in 2021 was 35.8% (95%CI, 30.6%-41.3%), compared to 15.7% (95%CI, 13.3%-18.4%) for 62 studies with midpoints through April 2020. Household SARs were 38.0% (95%CI, 36.0%-40.0%), 30.8% (95%CI, 23.5%-39.3%), and 22.5% (95%CI, 18.6%-26.8%) for Alpha, Delta, and Beta, respectively. VE I,p , VE S,p , and VE T,p were 56.6% (95%CI, 28.7%-73.6%), 70.3% (95%CI, 59.3%-78.4%), and 86.8% (95%CI, 76.7%-92.5%) for full vaccination, and 27.5% (95%CI, -6.4%-50.7%), 43.9% (95%CI, 21.8%-59.7%), and 59.9% (95%CI, 34.4%-75.5%) for partial vaccination, respectively. Household contacts exposed to Alpha or Delta are at increased risk of infection compared to the original wild-type strain. Vaccination reduced susceptibility to infection and transmission to others.

SUMMARY

Household secondary attack rates (SARs) were higher for Alpha and Delta variants than previous estimates. SARs were higher to unvaccinated contacts than to partially or fully vaccinated contacts and were higher from unvaccinated index cases than from fully vaccinated index cases.