A review of cancer risk prediction models with genetic variants

Exploring the role of health-related quality of life measures in predictive modelling for oncology: a systematic review

Health related quality of life (HRQoL) is increasingly assessed in oncology research and routine care, which has led to the inclusion of HRQoL in prediction models. This review aims to describe the current state of oncological prediction models incorporating HRQoL. A systematic literature search for the inclusion of HRQoL in prediction models in oncology was conducted. Selection criteria were a longitudinal study design and inclusion of HRQoL data in prediction models as predictor, outcome, or both. Risk of bias was assessed using the PROBAST tool and quality of reporting was scored with an adapted TRIPOD reporting guideline. From 4747 abstracts, 98 records were included in this review. High risk of bias was found in 71% of the publications. HRQoL was mainly incorporated as predictor (78% (55% predictor only, 23% both predictor and outcome)), with physical functioning and symptom domains selected most frequently as predictor. Few models (23%) predicted HRQoL domains by other or baseline HRQoL domains. HRQoL was used as outcome in 21% of the publications, with a focus on predicting symptoms. There were no difference between AI-based (16%) and classical methods (84%) in model type selection or model performance when using HRQoL data. This review highlights the role of HRQoL as a tool in predicting disease outcomes. Prediction of and with HRQoL is still in its infancy as most of the models are not fully developed. Current models focus mostly on the physical aspects of HRQoL to predict clinical outcomes, and few utilize AI-based methods.

Regulating cancer risk prediction: legal considerations and stakeholder perspectives on the Canadian context

Risk prediction models hold great promise to reduce the impact of cancer in society through advanced warning of risk and improved preventative modalities. These models are evolving and becoming more complex, increasingly integrating genetic screening data and polygenic risk scores as well as calculating risk for multiple types of a disease. However, unclear regulatory compliance requirements applicable to these models raise significant legal uncertainty and new questions about the regulation of medical devices. This paper aims to address these novel regulatory questions by presenting an initial assessment of the legal status likely applicable to risk prediction models in Canada, using the CanRisk tool for breast and ovarian cancer as an exemplar. Legal analysis is supplemented with qualitative perspectives from expert stakeholders regarding the accessibility and compliance challenges of the Canadian regulatory framework. While the paper focuses on the Canadian context, it also refers to European and U.S. regulations in this domain to contrast them. Legal analysis and stakeholder perspectives highlight the need to clarify and update the Canadian regulatory framework for Software as a Medical Device as it applies to risk prediction models. Findings demonstrate how normative guidance perceived as convoluted, contradictory or overly burdensome can discourage innovation, compliance, and ultimately, implementation. This contribution aims to initiate discussion about a more optimal legal framework for risk prediction models as they continue to evolve and are increasingly integrated into landscape for public health.

Diagnosis of triple negative breast cancer using expression data with several machine learning tools

Breast cancer is one of the top three commonly caused cancers worldwide. Triple Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC), a subtype of breast cancer, lacks expression of the oestrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, and HER2. This makes the prognosis poor and early detection hard. Therefore, AI based neural models such as Binary Logistic Regression, Multi-Layer Perceptron and Radial Basis Functions were used for differential diagnosis of normal samples and TNBC samples collected from signal intensity data of microarray experiment. Genes that were significantly upregulated in TNBC were compared with healthy controls. The MLP model classified TNBC and normal cells with anaccuracy of 93.4%. However, RBF gave 74% accuracy and binary Logistic Regression model showed an accuracy of 90.0% in identifying TNBC cases.

Gastric Cancer Risk Prediction Using an Epidemiological Risk Assessment Model and Polygenic Risk Score

Simple Summary

Risk prediction models incorporate various established risk factors to estimate individual risk specifically in cancer. These models additionally include biological or genetic risk factors to assess cancer risk more accurately. The polygenic risk score (PRS) combines the effects of multiple single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with disease; its discrimination ability was assessed both alone and when used in combination with conventional risk prediction models. As few studies have evaluated the combination of genetic variants to identify high risk population of gastric cancer (GC), and we examined the performance of a GC risk assessment model in combination with SNPs as a PRS in consideration of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection status. Such a combination improves the identification of a GC-susceptible population among people with H. pylori infection.

Abstract

We investigated the performance of a gastric cancer (GC) risk assessment model in combination with single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) as a polygenic risk score (PRS) in consideration of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection status. Six SNPs identified from genome-wide association studies and a marginal association with GC in the study population were included in the PRS. Discrimination of the GC risk assessment model, PRS, and the combination of the two (PRS-GCS) were examined regarding incremental risk and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), with grouping according to H. pylori infection status. The GC risk assessment model score showed an association with GC, irrespective of H. pylori infection. Conversely, the PRS exhibited an association only for those with H. pylori infection. The PRS did not discriminate GC in those without H. pylori infection, whereas the GC risk assessment model showed a modest discrimination. Among individuals with H. pylori infection, discrimination by the GC risk assessment model and the PRS were comparable, with the PRS-GCS combination resulting in an increase in the AUC of 3%. In addition, the PRS-GCS classified more patients and fewer controls at the highest score quintile in those with H. pylori infection. Overall, the PRS-GCS improved the identification of a GC-susceptible population of people with H. pylori infection. In those without H. pylori infection, the GC risk assessment model was better at identifying the high-risk group.

Comprehensive assessments of germline deletion structural variants reveal the association between prognostic MUC4 and CEP72 deletions and immune response gene expression in colorectal cancer patients

Background

Functional disruptions by large germline genomic structural variants in susceptible genes are known risks for cancer. We used deletion structural variants (DSVs) generated from germline whole-genome sequencing (WGS) and DSV immune-related association tumor microenvironment (TME) to predict cancer risk and prognosis.

Methods

We investigated the contribution of germline DSVs to cancer susceptibility and prognosis by silicon and causal inference models. DSVs in germline WGS data were generated from the blood samples of 192 cancer and 499 non-cancer subjects. Clinical information, including family cancer history (FCH), was obtained from the National Cheng Kung University Hospital and Taiwan Biobank. Ninety-nine colorectal cancer (CRC) patients had immune response gene expression data. We used joint calling tools and an attention-weighted model to build the cancer risk predictive model and identify DSVs in familial cancer. The survival support vector machine (survival-SVM) was used to select prognostic DSVs.

Results

We identified 671 DSVs that could predict cancer risk. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) of the attention-weighted model was 0.71. The 3 most frequent DSV genes observed in cancer patients were identified as ADCY9, AURKAPS1, and RAB3GAP2 (p < 0.05). The DSVs in SGSM2 and LHFPL3 were relevant to colorectal cancer. We found a higher incidence of FCH in cancer patients than in non-cancer subjects (p < 0.05). SMYD3 and NKD2DSV genes were associated with cancer patients with FCH (p < 0.05). We identified 65 immune-associated DSV markers for assessing cancer prognosis (p < 0.05). The functional protein of MUC4 DSV gene interacted with MAGE1 expression, according to the STRING database. The causal inference model showed that deleting the CEP72 DSV gene affect the recurrence-free survival (RFS) of IFIT1 expression.

Conclusions

We established an explainable attention-weighted model for cancer risk prediction and used the survival-SVM for prognostic stratification by using germline DSVs and immune gene expression datasets. Comprehensive assessments of germline DSVs can predict the cancer risk and clinical outcome of colon cancer patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40246-020-00302-3.

Use of empiric methods to inform prostate cancer health disparities: Comparison of neighborhood-wide association study "hits" in black and white men

BACKGROUND

Black men are more likely to die of prostate cancer (PCa) compared with white men. Factors ranging from genetics to neighborhood environment contribute to these disparities. However, unlike genetics, agnostic investigations that identify candidate variables from large-scale data, and that allow for empiric investigations into differential associations between neighborhood and PCa by race/ethnicity, to the authors' knowledge have not been well explored. Thus, herein, the authors built on their previously developed, empiric neighborhood-wide association study (NWAS) in white men and conducted a NWAS in black men to determine whether findings differed by race.

METHODS

Pennsylvania Cancer Registry data were linked to US Census data. For the NWAS in non-Hispanic black men, the authors evaluated the association between 14,663 neighborhood census variables and advanced PCa (11 high-stage and/or high-grade cases and 8632 low-stage and/or low-grade cases), adjusting for age, diagnosis year, spatial correlation, and multiple testing. Odds ratios and 95% credible intervals were reported. Replication of NWAS findings across black and white races was assessed using Bayesian mixed effects models.

RESULTS

Five variables related to housing (3 variables), education (1 variable), and employment and/or transportation (1 variable) were found to be significantly associated with advanced PCa in black men compared with 17 socioeconomic variables (mostly related to poverty and/or income) in white men. The top hit in black men was related to crowding in renter-occupied housing (odds ratio, 1.10; 95% credible interval, 1.001-1.12). Nine of 22 NWAS hits (4 of 5 hits in black men) were replicated across racial/ethnic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Different neighborhood variables, or "candidates," were identified across race-specific NWASs. These findings and empiric approaches warrant additional study and may inform PCa racial disparities, particularly future gene-environment studies aimed at identifying patients and/or communities at risk of advanced PCa.

Prediction of acute myeloid leukaemia risk in healthy individuals

The incidence of acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) increases with age and mortality exceeds 90% when diagnosed after age 65. Most cases arise without any detectable early symptoms and patients usually present with the acute complications of bone marrow failure1. The onset of such de novo AML cases is typically preceded by the accumulation of somatic mutations in preleukaemic haematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs) that undergo clonal expansion2,3. However, recurrent AML mutations also accumulate in HSPCs during ageing of healthy individuals who do not develop AML, a phenomenon referred to as age-related clonal haematopoiesis (ARCH)4-8. Here we use deep sequencing to analyse genes that are recurrently mutated in AML to distinguish between individuals who have a high risk of developing AML and those with benign ARCH. We analysed peripheral blood cells from 95 individuals that were obtained on average 6.3 years before AML diagnosis (pre-AML group), together with 414 unselected age- and gender-matched individuals (control group). Pre-AML cases were distinct from controls and had more mutations per sample, higher variant allele frequencies, indicating greater clonal expansion, and showed enrichment of mutations in specific genes. Genetic parameters were used to derive a model that accurately predicted AML-free survival; this model was validated in an independent cohort of 29 pre-AML cases and 262 controls. Because AML is rare, we also developed an AML predictive model using a large electronic health record database that identified individuals at greater risk. Collectively our findings provide proof-of-concept that it is possible to discriminate ARCH from pre-AML many years before malignant transformation. This could in future enable earlier detection and monitoring, and may help to inform intervention.

A Decade of GWAS Results in Lung Cancer

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) were successful to identify genetic factors robustly associated with lung cancer. This review aims to synthesize the literature in this field and accelerate the translation of GWAS discoveries into results that are closer to clinical applications. A chronologic presentation of published GWAS on lung cancer susceptibility, survival, and response to treatment is presented. The most important results are tabulated to provide a concise overview in one read. GWAS have reported 45 lung cancer susceptibility loci with varying strength of evidence and highlighted suspected causal genes at each locus. Some genetic risk loci have been refined to more homogeneous subgroups of lung cancer patients in terms of histologic subtypes, smoking status, gender, and ethnicity. Overall, these discoveries are an important step for future development of new therapeutic targets and biomarkers to personalize and improve the quality of care for patients. GWAS results are on the edge of offering new tools for targeted screening in high-risk individuals, but more research is needed if GWAS are to pay off the investment. Complementary genomic datasets and functional studies are needed to refine the underlying molecular mechanisms of lung cancer preliminarily revealed by GWAS and reach results that are medically actionable. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 27(4); 363-79. ©2018 AACRSee all articles in this CEBP Focus section, "Genome-Wide Association Studies in Cancer."

Exposure to Antineoplastic Agents Induces Cytotoxicity in Nurse Lymphocytes: Role of Mitochondrial Damage and Oxidative Stress

Cytotoxicity and mitochondrial parameters were studied in isolated lymphocytes and their mitochondria obtained from occupationally exposed nurses through inhalation exposure to antineoplastic drugs and results were compared to those of unexposed nurses. The group of occupationally exposed nurses consisted of 50 individuals ranging in age from 30 to 35 years. The control group included 50 nurses who were not occupationally exposed to the preparation and handling of antineoplastic drugs and their anthropometric and biochemical characteristics were similar to those of the expose group. All cytotoxicity and mitochondrial parameters evaluated in exposed group were significantly increased (P < 0.05) compared to the unexposed control group. Finally, the results of our study suggest that using antioxidant, mitochondrial and lysosomal protective agents can be promising drug candidates for the hospital staff in the risk of exposure to exposure to antineoplastic drugs.

Microarray-based SNP genotyping to identify genetic risk factors of triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) in South Indian population

In the view of aggressive nature of Triple-Negative Breast cancer (TNBC) due to the lack of receptors (ER, PR, HER2) and high incidence of drug resistance associated with it, a case-control association study was conducted to identify the contributing genetic risk factors for Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). A total of 30 TNBC patients and 50 age and gender-matched controls of Indian origin were screened for 9,00,000 SNP markers using microarray-based SNP genotyping approach. The initial PLINK association analysis (p < 0.01, MAF 0.14-0.44, OR 10-24) identified 28 non-synonymous SNPs and one stop gain mutation in the exonic region as possible determinants of TNBC risk. All the 29 SNPs were annotated using ANNOVAR. The interactions between these markers were evaluated using Multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) analysis. The interactions were in the following order: exm408776 > exm1278309 > rs316389 > rs1651654 > rs635538 > exm1292477. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was performed to construct decision tree useful in predicting TNBC risk. As shown in this analysis, rs1651654 and exm585172 SNPs are found to be determinants of TNBC risk. Artificial neural network model was used to generate the Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), which showed high sensitivity and specificity (AUC-0.94) of these markers. To conclude, among the 9,00,000 SNPs tested, CCDC42 exm1292477, ANXA3 exm408776, SASH1 exm585172 are found to be the most significant genetic predicting factors for TNBC. The interactions among exm408776, exm1278309, rs316389, rs1651654, rs635538, exm1292477 SNPs inflate the risk for TNBC further. Targeted analysis of these SNPs and genes alone also will have similar clinical utility in predicting TNBC.

A Novel Pathway-Based Approach Improves Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Using Germline Genetic Variations

BACKGROUND

Although genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified many genetic variants that are strongly associated with lung cancer, these variants have low penetrance and serve as poor predictors of lung cancer in individuals. We sought to increase the predictive value of germline variants by considering their cumulative effects in the context of biologic pathways.

METHODS

For individuals in the Environment and Genetics in Lung Cancer Etiology study (1,815 cases/1,971 controls), we computed pathway-level susceptibility effects as the sum of relevant SNP variant alleles weighted by their log-additive effects from a separate lung cancer GWAS meta-analysis (7,766 cases/37,482 controls). Logistic regression models based on age, sex, smoking, genetic variants, and principal components of pathway effects and pathway-smoking interactions were trained and optimized in cross-validation and further tested on an independent dataset (556 cases/830 controls). We assessed prediction performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Compared with typical binomial prediction models that have epidemiologic predictors (AUC = 0.607) in addition to top GWAS variants (AUC = 0.617), our pathway-based smoking-interactive multinomial model significantly improved prediction performance in external validation (AUC = 0.656, P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our biologically informed approach demonstrated a larger increase in AUC over nongenetic counterpart models relative to previous approaches that incorporate variants.

IMPACT

This model is the first of its kind to evaluate lung cancer prediction using subtype-stratified genetic effects organized into pathways and interacted with smoking. We propose pathway-exposure interactions as a potentially powerful new contributor to risk inference. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(8); 1208-15. ©2016 AACR.

Integrating full spectrum of sequence features into predicting functional microRNA-mRNA interactions

MOTIVATION

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) play important roles in general biological processes and diseases pathogenesis. Identifying miRNA target genes is an essential step to fully understand the regulatory effects of miRNAs. Many computational methods based on the sequence complementary rules and the miRNA and mRNA expression profiles have been developed for this purpose. It is noted that there have been many sequence features of miRNA targets available, including the context features of the target sites, the thermodynamic stability and the accessibility energy for miRNA-mRNA interaction. However, most of current computational methods that combine sequence and expression information do not effectively integrate full spectrum of these features; instead, they perceive putative miRNA-mRNA interactions from sequence-based prediction as equally meaningful. Therefore, these sequence features have not been fully utilized for improving miRNA target prediction.

RESULTS

We propose a novel regularized regression approach that is based on the adaptive Lasso procedure for detecting functional miRNA-mRNA interactions. Our method fully takes into account the gene sequence features and the miRNA and mRNA expression profiles. Given a set of sequence features for each putative miRNA-mRNA interaction and their expression values, our model quantifies the down-regulation effect of each miRNA on its targets while simultaneously estimating the contribution of each sequence feature to predicting functional miRNA-mRNA interactions. By applying our model to the expression datasets from two cancer studies, we have demonstrated our prediction results have achieved better sensitivity and specificity and are more biologically meaningful compared with those based on other methods.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

The source code is available at: http://nba.uth.tmc.edu/homepage/liu/miRNALasso.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

CONTACT

Yin.Liu@uth.tmc.edu.