Data-driven agent-based modelling of incentives for carbon sequestration: The case of sown biodiverse pastures in Portugal

Sown biodiverse permanent pastures rich in legumes (SBP) offset animal farming emissions due to their potential to sequester carbon. From 2009 to 2014 Portugal implemented a programme that provided payments to incentivize the adoption of SBP. However, no proper evaluation of its outcome was conducted. To address this gap, we develop an agent-based model (ABM) at the municipality level to study the adoption of SBP in Portugal and assess the outcome of the programme. We applied the first pure data-driven approach in agricultural land-use ABM, which relies on machine learning algorithms to define the agents' behavioural rules and capture their interaction with biophysical conditions. The ABM confirms that the program effectively expanded the adoption of SBP. However, our estimates indicate that the adoption rate in the absence of payments would have been higher than originally predicted. Furthermore, the existence of the program decreased the adoption rate after its conclusion. These findings underscore the importance of using reliable models and considering residual effects to properly design land use policies. The ABM developed in this study provides a basis for future research aimed at supporting the development of new policies to further promote the adoption of SBP.

Research on the Evolutionary Path of Eco-Conservation and High-Quality Development in the Yellow River Basin Based on an Agent-Based Model

The high-quality economic and social development of the Yellow River Basin is a combined system comprising the coordinated development of “economy–resources–environment–society”, with resources and the ecological environment bearing capacity as the constraints, and green innovative development as the driving force. Based on the systematic analysis of the structural dimensions of the composite system, this paper uses the balanced indicators and their coordinated development effectiveness to describe the development quality of the macro-composite system. In order to reveal the mechanism of the evolutionary path of the macro system, the resource- and environment-bearing capacity, regional high-quality development potential, regional innovation capacity, and high-quality development guarantee capacity are adopted as the main attributes and decision-making basis of the autonomous agents. The simulation results show that, under the existing development model, the economic development of all of the provinces in the Yellow River Basin will be constrained by resources and the environment. However, different policy scenarios significantly affect the evolutionary trends of economic development, resource consumption, and the environmental pollution situation. The mechanisms to overcome the bottleneck of the resource and ecological constraints are different for these policies, and the effects of the same policy in different provinces are also not the same.

Perspectives of farmers and tourists on agricultural abandonment in east Lesvos, Greece

Multi-stakeholder perceptions of landscape changes are increasingly recognized as essential inputs to discussions on future landscape developments, particularly when addressing the future of European rural areas experiencing agricultural abandonment. This research presents a case exploration of abandonment of olive plantations in east Lesvos, Greece. We conducted two sets of semi-structured interviews to relate an exploration on local farmers' ability and willingness to maintain the plantations, to the results of a landscape preference survey undertaken with tourists. Three farmer types are identified following a cluster analysis based on attributes of individual ability and willingness to farm. Farmers belonging to the prevalent type revealed low ability and willingness and expect to further extensify their farms. The remaining two farmer types have higher willingness; they are motivated by cultural reasons, more frequently expressing a desire to maintain their land under family ownership, and partake in social cooperative initiatives promoting practices valorizing the olive plantations. We outline how these types interact with regional drivers of change, and partly also contribute to persistence of abandonment through constrained ability to farm. Abandonment does not align with current landscape preferences of tourists, who favor cultivated landscapes, elements of traditionality within built infrastructure and undertake nature-based activities. We discuss how high willingness to farm associated with professional and pluri-active forms of farming may however provide opportunities to maintain the cultivated landscape and synergize with (agri-)tourism demand. Our findings are comparable to those of other European studies, contributing to discussions on the future of its rural landscapes.