Changing Mortality and Patterns of Death Causes in HIV Infected Patients - China, 2013-2022

Impact of HIV Pretreatment Drug Resistance on Secondary Transmission Through Treatment Dropout: A Prospective Population-Based Study in Southwestern China

Objective

Discontinuation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) raised drug resistance and failure of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) virological suppression. The study aimed to assess the relationship between pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) and ART dropout, as well as the relationship between HIV treatment dropout and HIV secondary transmission.

Methods

This study included all eligible participants from a local surveillance database in southwestern China between 2014 and 2021. The PDR prevalence trend was assessed using trend Chi-square tests within a consecutive cross-sectional design (N = 3060). Cox proportional hazards model was used to investigate the relationship between PDR and the risk of treatment dropout within a cohort design. Generalized Estimating Equations model was applied to explore the association between treatment dropout and HIV secondary transmission within a longitudinal genetic network study design. (N = 5094).

Results

The overall PDR prevalence was 6.2%, analyzing a study sample of 3060 individuals with HIV/AIDS. Specifically, the prevalence of PDR to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), and protease inhibitors (PIs) was 3.6%, 1.4%, and 1.1%, respectively. Yearly difference in prevalence was not identified. The independent association between PDR to NNRTIs and treatment dropout was significant (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.55, 95% CI 1.52-4.29). Among 5094 newly diagnosed HIV cases, participants who dropped out did not show a significant difference in HIV secondary transmission compared to those not on ART (adjusted odds ratio: 1.15, 95% CI 0.74-1.79).

Conclusion

PDR to NNRTIs may contribute to HIV secondary transmission through treatment dropout. It is imperative to offer comprehensive and advanced HIV care for all individuals with HIV, enhance treatment and medication adherence, and closely monitor PDR prevalence.

Prevalence and factors associated with adverse drug reactions among patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy at a tertiary hospital in south western Uganda: A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

HIV/AIDS remains a global health challenge, with significant prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa. Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is the mainstay treatment for HIV, and the number of people living with HIV (PLWHIV) on HAART has considerably increased worldwide. The use of HAART has led to improved patient outcomes; however, it is associated with adverse drug reactions (ADRs) and drug-drug interactions (DDIs), which pose serious concerns in the management of patients with HIV. The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence and factors associated with ADRs among patients on HAART.

METHODOLOGY

This was a hospital-based cross-sectional study carried out among 312 HIV patients on HAART attending HIV clinics at Mbarara Regional Hospital. Data was collected using an interviewer-administered, semi-structured questionnaire and a review of patient charts. ADRs were assessed for causality and categorized using Naranjo ADR assessment scale into probable, possible and definite, for severity using the modified Hartwig and Siegel criteria into mild, moderate and Severe, and for preventability using Schumock and Thornton criteria into definite, probable and non-preventable. Lexicomp® Drug Interaction Checker software was used to identify and rate clinically significant drug-drug interactions. The prevalence of ADRs and potential DDI was analyzed using descriptive statistics while logistic regression analysis was used to establish the association of variables.

RESULTS

312 patients were interviewed and their records reviewed. The prevalence of ADRs during this study was 76.0%. On assessment, 78.3% of the ADRs were mild and 76.6% of ADRs were definitely preventable. CD4 count below 200 cells/mm3 (AOR = 1.00, 95% CI: 1.00-1.02; p value = 0.04), primary education level (AOR = 3.27, 95% CI: 1.34-7.95; p value = 0.009), and secondary education level (AOR = 3.64, 95% CI: 1.39-9.52; p value = 0.009) were identified as independent risk factors. Patients who experienced a significant DDI were 5.66 times more likely to experience an ADR (p value = 0.02, 95% CI: 1.32-24.18).

CONCLUSION

There is a high prevalence of adverse drug reactions among patients with HIV on HAART. Low CD4 count and lower education levels are risk factors for ADRs in this population; therefore, tailored interventions to these subgroups should be implemented for early ADR identification and management. Significant drug-drug interactions are highly associated with the occurrence of ADRs among HIV patients on HAART, which calls for intensified pharmacovigilance and pharmaceutical care in this population.

Machine learning-based prediction of mortality risk in AIDS patients with comorbid common AIDS-related diseases or symptoms

Objective

Early assessment and intervention of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) patients at high risk of mortality is critical. This study aims to develop an optimally performing mortality risk prediction model for AIDS patients with comorbid AIDS-related diseases or symptoms to facilitate early intervention.

Methods

The study included 478 first-time hospital-admitted AIDS patients with related diseases or symptoms. Eight predictors were screened using lasso regression, followed by building eight models and using SHAP values (Shapley's additive explanatory values) to identify key features in the best models. The accuracy and discriminatory power of model predictions were assessed using variable importance plots, receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, and confusion matrices. Clinical benefits were evaluated through decision-curve analyses, and validation was performed with an external set of 48 patients.

Results

Lasso regression identified eight predictors, including hemoglobin, infection pathway, Sulfamethoxazole-Trimethoprim, expectoration, headache, persistent diarrhea, Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia, and bacterial pneumonia. The optimal model, XGBoost, yielded an Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.832, a sensitivity of 0.703, and a specificity of 0.799 in the training set. In the test set, the AUC was 0.729, the sensitivity was 0.717, and the specificity was 0.636. In the external validation set, the AUC was 0.873, the sensitivity was 0.852, and the specificity was 0.762. Furthermore, the calibration curves showed a high degree of fit, and the DCA curves demonstrated the overall high clinical utility of the model.

Conclusion

In this study, an XGBoost-based mortality risk prediction model is proposed, which can effectively predict the mortality risk of patients with co-morbid AIDS-related diseases or symptomatic AIDS, providing a new reference for clinical decision-making.

Disproportionate Vulnerability to and Unique Aggregation Pattern of Non-AIDS Comorbidities Among Women With HIV in China

Background

Whether and how sex plays differential roles in aging-related multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) is poorly characterized.

Methods

We included 2479 PWH and 5376 people without HIV from the baseline assessment of the CHART cohort (Comparative HIV and Aging Research in Taizhou). Ten non-AIDS comorbidities were investigated. Multiple logistic regression was used to assess the correlates of multimorbidity, defined as the coexistence of ≥2 non-AIDS comorbidities. Multimorbidity patterns were identified through hierarchical cluster analysis.

Results

The prevalence of multimorbidity was higher in PWH than in people without HIV (74.6% vs 66.9%, P < .001). This difference was particularly pronounced in women in each age group from 18 through 59 years and among men in each age group from 18 through 49 years. A significant interaction between sex and HIV on multimorbidity was identified (P < .001), with the strength of the association between HIV infection and multimorbidity being stronger in women than in men. Women with HIV presented a unique aggregation pattern of multimorbidity, where neuropsychiatric disorders (depression, neurocognitive impairment) clustered with cardiometabolic diseases. In contrast, all men and women without HIV manifested a similar multimorbidity pattern, where depression and neurocognitive impairment were clustered with hematologic abnormalities but not with cardiometabolic diseases.

Conclusions

Earlier onset and higher burden of multimorbidity in PWH, as well as disproportionate vulnerability to and a unique multimorbidity pattern among women with HIV, underscore the urgent need for early and sexually oriented integrative interventions and health services targeting multimorbidity in PWH.

Economic evaluation of short message service intervention for HIV prevention among men who have sex with men in China: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Men who have sex with men (MSM) globally face a high risk of HIV infection. Previous studies indicate that customized short message service (SMS) interventions could reduce high-risk behaviors that associated with HIV transmission. This study aims to evaluate the health and economic impacts of such interventions among MSM in China.

METHODS

A decision tree-Markov model was developed for a simulated cohort of 100,000 MSM of 20 years old. We assessed three intervention strategies: (1) routine strategy with standard health information; (2) SMS strategy with customized messages based on individual high-risk behaviors, with 50.1% efficacy and 50% coverage; (3) LEN-LA (lenacapavir long-acting) strategy as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), with 100% efficacy lasting for 0.5-year and 50% coverage. The study period was 45 years. Primary outcomes included the number of HIV infections and HIV-related deaths. The cost-effectiveness, cost-utility and cost-benefit analyses were conducted along with sensitivity analyses from the healthcare sector perspective.

RESULTS

The SMS strategy was more effective, averting 6,191 (22.0%) HIV infections and 2,100 (38.5%) HIV-related deaths when compared with routine strategy. The average cost-effectiveness ratios (ACERs) were US$6,361 (95% CI: 5,959-6,613) per HIV infection averted and US$18,752 (95% CI: 17,274 - 20,530) per HIV-related death averted. It had incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of US$1,743 (95% CI: 1,673-1,799) per QALY, with a benefit cost ratio (BCR) of 1.98 (95% CI: 1.94-2.02), compared with routine strategy. While the LEN-LA strategy may be the most effective, its high cost, coupled with the highest ICER, currently presents a considerable obstacle to its widespread adoption. The ICERs were most affected by the probability of HIV infection, intervention cost and coverage.

CONCLUSIONS

SMS strategy for preventing HIV among MSM in China is cost-effective and could be a promising strategy for HIV prevention. These findings may have implications for public health policy and resource allocation in HIV prevention efforts targeting high-risk populations.

Changes in early HIV/AIDS mortality rates in people initiating antiretroviral treatment between 2013 and 2023: A 10-year multicenter survival study in Senegal

BACKGROUND

HIV/AIDS-related early mortality has long been a significant challenge. Subsequent to recent policy changes and treatment advancements, we aimed to assess changes in early mortality rates in 2017-19 and 2020-23 compared to 2013-16.

METHODS

This is a 10-year multicenter survival study in people living with human immunodeficiency virus having initiated ART between 2013 and 2023. We used frailty-based competing risk models to estimate adjusted early (6-month and one-year) mortality hazard ratios (HRs) in people living with HIV (PwHIV) having initiated ART in 2013-16 (comparator), 2017-19, and 2020-23.

RESULTS

We enrolled 4006 persons of whom 2281 (56.9 %) were female; median age was 40 years (IQR: 31-50); 635 (15.9 %) were at WHO clinical stage IV and 934 (23.3 %) had a CD4 count <200 cells/mm3. Median follow-up was 80.4 months (IQR: 48.6-106.7). All in all, 463 participants died (4.37 deaths per 100 person-years), including 296 at one year of follow-up (7.4 % [95 % CI: 6.6-8.2]). ART initiation in 2016-19 and 2020-23 was associated with 27 % (adjusted HR [aHR]: 0.73; 95 % CI: 0.55-0.98) and 63 % (aHR: 0.37; 95 % CI: 0.25-0.56) reductions in one-year mortality rates, respectively, compared to the 2013-16 period.

CONCLUSION

Early mortality risk has significantly decreased over time in Senegal. However, the proportion of PwHIV with AIDS-defining conditions remains concerning. Continued efforts to ensure early diagnosis and prompt linkage to care are needed for more impact.

Survival of People Living with HIV/AIDS from Pre-ART Era to Treat-all Era - China, 1985-2022

Introduction

A comprehensive analysis of nationwide survival trends for people living with human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS, PLWHA) from the initial reported case to present has not been conducted. This study evaluated the survival outcomes of PLWHA reported in China from 1985 to 2022.

Methods

We analyzed data from PLWHA recorded in the National HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System from 1985 to 2022. Survival rates were calculated using Kaplan-Meier curves, and factors associated with survival time were analyzed using Cox proportional hazard models.

Results

Progressive relaxation of antiretroviral therapy initiation criteria led to significant improvements in survival rates across different diagnostic periods in China. The 1-year and 5-year cumulative survival rates increased from 85.2% and 66.1% in the 1985-2003 cohort to 91.1% and 81.4% in the 2016-2022 cohort. Cox proportional hazard analysis revealed elevated mortality risks among males, individuals aged ≥65 years, those with injection drug use or other transmission routes, hospital-tested patients, and those with lower CD4 counts at diagnosis or without treatment.

Conclusions

Antiretroviral therapy has effectively reduced mortality risk among PLWHA in China. Future efforts should focus on expanding HIV testing to reduce the proportion of late diagnoses with lower CD4 counts and providing targeted, differentiated services for older populations to further decrease mortality risk among PLWHA.

Mortality and comorbidities in a Nationwide cohort of HIV-infected adults: comparison to a matched non-HIV adults' cohort, France, 2006-18

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The aim of this study was to describe the mortality rate and associated comorbidities in a nationwide population-based cohort of persons living with HIV (PLWHIV) and to compare it with mortality in an age and gender-matched cohort of non-HIV individuals in France.

METHODS

Using data from the French national health data system, we identified and included 173 712 PLWHIV (66.5% men) and 173 712 non-HIV participants (66.5% men) matched for age and gender. PLHIV were identified based on ICD-10 HIV diagnoses, HIV-specific laboratory tests, and/or prescriptions for antiretroviral therapy specific to HIV. Hazard ratios (HRs) of mortality were assessed using multiple Cox regression models.

RESULTS

During the 13 years of follow-up (2006-18), we observed 20 018 deaths among PLWHIV compared with 6262 deaths among non-HIV participants (11.52% vs. 3.60%, P < 0.001). The over-mortality of PLWHIV was expressed by univariable HR = 2.135 (2.072-2.199), which remained significant after adjustment for region, Complementary Universal Health Insurance and AME, with multivariable HR = 2.182 (2.118-2.248). The results remained significant after adjusting for comorbidities, including infectious diseases [HR = 1.587 (1.538-1.638)]. Notably, PLWHIV were more importantly associated with mortality in women [HR = 2.966 (2.767-3.180)], compared in men [HR = 1.961 (1.898-2.027)].

CONCLUSION

Although the life expectancy of PLWHIV has globally increased, the causes of death should be prioritized in prevention policies and care management. Gender-specific policies should be highlighted, as we observed a higher impact of HIV mortality in women.

Trends in HIV/AIDS-Related Mortality and the Impact of Antiretroviral Treatment Strategies in Lu'an City: A Comprehensive Analysis

BACKGROUND There are many factors that affect human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related deaths, and different antiretroviral therapy (ART) strategies may affect HIV/AIDS-related fatality rates. However, studies on this area are very limited. This study aimed to evaluate the factors associated with HIV/AIDS-related mortality and the impact of different ART strategies in Lu'an City, Anhui Province, China, 1999-2023. MATERIAL AND METHODS Data of HIV/AIDS cases were downloaded from the China HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System, and were assessed to evaluate the impact of different ART strategies on the related fatality rate using interrupted time series (ITS). RESULTS We found that age at diagnosis of 15 years, 25 years, 40 years, and 60 years, as well as receiving ART, were protective factors against death (with P below 0.05), while lower CD4 count at the last CD4 count and the year of diagnosis before 2007 and between 2007 and 2016 were risk factors (with P below 0.05). ITS analysis revealed that in the year of the introduction of free ART in 2006, the fatality rate decreased by 38.60% (P=0.015). The fatality rate trend from 2006 to 2015 was -1.1%, which was not statistically significant (P=0.434). The fatality rate trend from 2016 to 2023 was -0.33%, indicating a decreasing trend (P=0.000). CONCLUSIONS Children under 15 years old and elderly patients had a higher risk of death. The main reasons for the decrease in HIV/AIDS-related fatality rate were ART, especially the "early treatment" strategy.

Associations of ambient ozone exposure and CD4+ T cell levels with mortality among people living with HIV: An eight-year longitudinal study

There has been a consistent upward trend in ground-level ozone (O3) concentration in China. People living with HIV (PLWH) may be more vulnerable to the health impacts of O3 exposure due to their immunosuppressed state. This study aims to investigate the association between ambient O3 exposure and mortality among PLWH, as well as the potential exacerbating effects of a decreased CD4+ T cell level. Daily maximum 8-hour O3 concentrations were assigned to 7270 PLWH at a county level in Guangxi, China. Every 10-unit increase in ambient O3 concentration was associated with a significant rise in all-cause mortality ranging from 7.3 % to 28.7 % and a significant rise in AIDS-related mortality ranging from 8.4 % to 14.5 %. When PLWH had a higher CD4+ count (≥350 cells/μL), elevated O3 concentration was associated with increased blood CD4+ count at lag0 [percent change with 95 % confidence interval, 0.20(0.00, 0.40)], lag1 [0.26(0.06, 0.47)], and lag2 [0.23(0.03, 0.44)]; however, an opposite association was observed when CD4+ count was <350 cells/μL for half-year average [-2.45(-4.71, -0.14)] and yearly average [-3.42(-5.51, -1.29)] of O3 exposure. The association of O3 exposure with all-cause and AIDS-related mortality was more prominent among those with higher CD4+ count. Exploratory analysis revealed possible associations between O3 exposure and respiratory infections and clinical symptoms. These findings suggest potential synergistic effects between a compromised immune status and elevated O3 exposure levels on mortality risk among PLWH. Ambient O3 exposure should be considered as an emerging mortality risk factor for PLWH in the era of antiretroviral therapy, requiring further attention from researchers and healthcare professionals.

Psychometric and Circumplex Properties Evaluation of the International Personality Item Pool-Interpersonal Circumplex (IPIP-IPC) in Chinese People Living with HIV (PLWH)

Background and Purpose

With the improved life expectancy of people living with HIV (PLWH) due to widespread use of antiretroviral therapy (ART), there is a greater emphasis on enhancing long-term well-being and overall quality of life for PLWH. Understanding interpersonal personalities of PLWH can gain further insight into how to improve the overall quality of life in this population. The International Personality Item Pool-Interpersonal Circumplex (IPIP-IPC) scale has been developed to assess interpersonal personalities of individuals, and this scale has been translated into Chinese. However, the Chinese version of IPIP-IPC has not been tested among PLWH in China. In this study, we aimed to test the psychometric properties and circumplex structure of this scale.

Methods

This study was based on cross-sectional, multi-center, large sample data. We employed the Chinese version of IPIP-IPC scale on 3040 PLWH from April 2022 to April 2023 in China to test its psychometric as well as circumplex properties. The structural summary method (SSM) was employed to analyze the circumplex structure of the scale.

Results

The total scale exhibited a Cronbach's alpha of 0.85 and McDonald's omega of 0.91. Out of the 288 possible relationships, 275 relationships satisfy the circular properties hypothesis. The scale demonstrates good reliability and validity, meeting the requirements of psychometrics.

Conclusion

Our findings demonstrate that the Chinese version of the IPIP-IPC scale is a reliable tool for evaluating interpersonal personalities in this population. These results highlight the validity and applicability of the IPIP-IPC scale specifically in the Chinese context, providing valuable insights into the intricacies of interpersonal traits among PLWH.