Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Clinical Outcomes among Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19: Findings from the World Heart Federation COVID-19 Study

Predicting outcomes of the acute phase of COVID-19. High sensitive prognostic model, based on the results of the international registry "analysis of chronic non-infectious diseases dynamics after COVID-19 infection in adult patients" (ACTIV)

The aim of this study is to investigate the course of the acute period of COVID-19 and devise a prognostic scale for patients hospitalized.

Materials and methods

The ACTIV registry encompassed both male and female patients aged 18 years and above, who were diagnosed with COVID-19 and subsequently hospitalized. Between June 2020 and March 2021, a total of 9364 patients were enrolled across 26 medical centers in seven countries. Data collected during the patients' hospital stay were subjected to multivariate analysis within the R computational environment. A predictive mathematical model, utilizing the "Random Forest" machine learning algorithm, was established to assess the risk of reaching the endpoint (defined as in-hospital death from any cause). This model was constructed using a training subsample (70% of patients), and subsequently tested using a control subsample (30% of patients).

Results

Out of the 9364 hospitalized COVID-19 patients, 545 (5.8%) died. Multivariate analysis resulted in the selection of eleven variables for the final model: minimum oxygen saturation, glomerular filtration rate, age, hemoglobin level, lymphocyte percentage, white blood cell count, platelet count, aspartate aminotransferase, glucose, heart rate, and respiratory rate. Receiver operating characteristic analysis yielded an area under the curve of 89.2%, a sensitivity of 86.2%, and a specificity of 76.0%. Utilizing the final model, a predictive equation and nomogram (termed the ACTIV scale) were devised for estimating in-hospital mortality amongst COVID-19 patients.

Conclusion

The ACTIV scale provides a valuable tool for practicing clinicians to predict the risk of in-hospital death in patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

The Role of Children in Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Across Four Waves of the Pandemic

BACKGROUND

It is important to understand the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in close-contact settings such as households. We hypothesized that children would most often acquire SARS-CoV-2 from a symptomatic adult caregiver.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study was conducted from April 2020 to July 2022 in a low-resource, urban settlement in Brazil. We recruited families who brought their children to a public clinic. We collected nasopharyngeal and oral swabs from household members and tracked symptoms and vaccination.

RESULTS

In total, 1256 participants in 298 households were tested for SARS-CoV-2. A total of 4073 RT-PCR tests were run with 893 SARS-CoV-2 positive results (21.9%). SARS-CoV-2 cases were defined as isolated cases (N = 158) or well-defined transmission events (N = 175). The risk of household transmission was lower if the index case was a child (OR: 0.3 [95% CI: 0.16-0.55], P < .001) or was vaccinated (OR: 0.29 [95% CI: 0.1-0.85], P = .024), and higher if the index was symptomatic (OR: 2.53 [95% CI: 1.51-4.26], P < .001). The secondary attack rate for child index cases to child contacts was 0.29, whereas the secondary attack rate for adult index cases to child contacts was 0.47 (P = .08).

CONCLUSIONS

In this community, children were significantly less infectious to their household contacts than adolescents or adults. Most children were infected by a symptomatic adult, usually their mother. There was a double benefit of vaccination as it protected the vaccine from severe illness and prevented onward transmission to household contacts. Our findings may also be valid for similar populations throughout Latin America.

Clinical predictors of Covid-19 mortality in a tertiary hospital in Lagos, Nigeria: A retrospective cohort study

Background

The predictors of mortality among patients presenting with severe to critical disease in Nigeria are presently unknown.

Aim

The aim of this study was to identify the predictors of mortality among patients with COVID-19 presenting for admission in a tertiary referral hospital in Lagos, Nigeria.

Patients and Methods

The study was a retrospective study. Patients' sociodemographics, clinical characteristics, comorbidities, complications, treatment outcomes, and hospital duration were documented. Pearson's Chi-square, Fischer's Exact test, or Student's t-test were used to assess the relationship between the variables and mortality. To compare the survival experience across medical comorbidities, Kaplan Meir plots and life tables were used. Univariable and multivariable Cox-proportional hazard analyses were conducted.

Results

A total of 734 patients were recruited. Participants' age ranged from five months to 92 years, with a mean ± SD of 47.4 ± 17.2 years, and a male preponderance (58.5% vs. 41.5%). The mortality rate was 9.07 per thousand person-days. About 73.9% (n = 51/69) of the deceased had one or more co-morbidities, compared to 41.6% (252/606) of those discharged. Patients who were older than 50 years, with diabetes mellitus, hypertension, chronic renal illness, and cancer had a statistically significant relationship with mortality.

Conclusion

These findings call for a more comprehensive approach to the control of non-communicable diseases, the allocation of sufficient resources for ICU care during outbreaks, an improvement in the quality of health care available to Nigerians, and further research into the relationship between obesity and COVID-19 in Nigerians.

Profiles of Independent-Comorbidity Groups in Senior COVID-19 Patients Reveal Low Fatality Associated with Standard Care and Low-Dose Hydroxychloroquine over Antivirals

Introduction

The lack of feasible therapies and comorbidities aggravate the COVID-19 case-fatality rate (CFR). However, reports examining CFR associations with diabetes, concomitant cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and chronic liver disease (CLD) are limited. More studies assessing hydroxychloroquine (Hcq) and antivirals are needed.

Purpose

To examine associations of COVID-19 CFR in comorbid patient groups each with single comorbidities and after treatment with Hcq, favipiravir, and dexamethasone (Dex), either alone or in combination versus standard care.

Methods

Using statistical analysis, we descriptively determined these associations among 750 COVID-19 patient groups during the last quarter of 2021.

Results

A diabetes comorbidity (40%, n=299) showed twice the fatality (CFR 14%) of the others (CFR 7%; P=0.001). Hypertension (Htn) was the second-commonest comorbidity (29.5%, n=221), with similar CFR to diabetes (15% and 7% for Htn and non-Htn, respectively), but with higher significance (P=0.0006167). Although only 4% (n=30) heart failure (HF) was reported, the CFR (40%) was much higher than in those without it (8%). A similar rate (4%) for chronic kidney disease was reported, with CFRs of 33% and 9% among those with and without it, respectively (P=0.00048). Ischemic heart disease was 11% (n=74), followed by chronic liver disease (0.4%) and history of smoking (1%); however, these were not significant due to the sample sizes. Treatment indicated standard care and Hcq alone or in combination were superior (CFR of 4% and 0.5%, respectively) compared to favipiravir (25%) or Dex (38.5%) independently or in combination (35.4%). Furthermore, Hcq performed well (CFR 9%) when combined with Dex (9%; P=4.28-²⁶).

Conclusion

The dominance of diabetes and other comorbidities with significant association with CFR implied existence of a common virulence mechanism. The superiority of low-dose Hcq and standard care over antivirals warrants further studies.

Correction: Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Clinical Outcomes among Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19: Findings from the World Heart Federation COVID-19 Study

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.5334/gh.1128.].