Association of Depression and Anxiety With Expectations and Satisfaction in Foot and Ankle Surgery

Preoperative Expectations for Elective vs Nonelective Foot and Ankle Patients

Background

Orthopaedic patients' expectations for surgical treatment are often disparate compared with those of their surgeon. There is increasing interest in assessing and understanding patient preoperative expectations and their potential association with postoperative satisfaction. Previous literature has found several predictors of patient-provider discrepancies in expectations for elective orthopaedic surgery, although no studies have included patients undergoing surgery for traumatic injuries. The aim of this study was to determine if there are differences in expectations between patients undergoing elective vs nonelective foot and ankle surgeries.

Methods

A prospective study of adult foot and ankle patients was performed over 6 months (October 2023-March 2024). At the time of preoperative evaluation, patients and their surgeon each independently completed a validated Foot and Ankle Surgery Expectations Survey, developed by the Hospital for Special Surgery. For each survey, the total number of expectations for which a respondent anticipated at least "a little improvement" were counted, giving the Number of Expected Areas of Improvement (NEAI); and a validated Aggregate Score (AS), capturing the overall magnitude of expectations, was calculated. Average NEAI and AS for each patient group were calculated and analyzed in regression models that included several demographic covariates.

Results

Sixty-nine patients were prospectively enrolled, 53 (76%) elective and 16 (24%) nonelective. The groups were demographically similar except for race. Patient expectations did not differ significantly between groups in NEAI or AS (P = .988, P = .462). Surgeon expectations were significantly lower both in NEAI and AS than those of patients in both groups (P < .001). Of the covariates tested in this study, increasing patient body mass index was the only significant predictor of increased patient-surgeon discrepancy (P = .005).

Conclusion

This study confirms previous findings that surgeons have lower preoperative expectations than patients who undergo orthopaedic foot and ankle surgery. This exploratory study suggests that neither patients' nor providers' overall expectations differ between elective and nonelective foot and ankle surgeries.

Level of Evidence

Level III, prospective observational study.

Perioperative duloxetine improves postoperative outcomes after anterior talofibular ligament repair for chronic lateral ankle instability for patients with depression: A prospective randomized clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Recent studies have indicated that depression is associated with persistent postoperative pain and decreased satisfaction following foot and ankle surgery. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of perioperative duloxetine on postoperative outcomes of anterior talofibular ligament (ATFL) surgical repair for chronic ankle instability (CAI) in patients with depression. We further sought to evaluate patients' satisfaction and side effects related to duloxetine.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Patients undergoing ATFL repair were screened for depression preoperatively with the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). Among 249 patients who underwent arthroscopic or open surgical Brostrom repair of the ATFL, 120 patients were identified as being "possibly depressed" and were included in the study. Sixty patients were randomly assigned to the duloxetine group (one day preoperatively and for 6 weeks postoperatively), and the other sixty were randomized to the placebo group. Painkillers and opioid consumption, pain scores, and patient satisfaction were recorded at 12, 24, 48, and 72hours postoperatively and at follow-up visits 1, 3, and 6 months after surgery. Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) were assessed preoperatively and at 3, 6, 12 and 24 months postoperatively. Duloxetine-related side effects such as nausea/vomiting and fatigue were also recorded.

RESULTS

The patients in the duloxetine group reported a significantly longer time to rescue analgesic and reduced opioid requirements (including celecoxib, pregabalin, acetaminophen, and tramadol). The patients experienced decreased pain intensity and greater satisfaction with their pain management at 24, 48, 72h and 1 and 3 months after surgery (p<0.05). The duloxetine group also had significantly better clinical and functional outcomes at 3 and 6 months of follow-up compared to the placebo group (p<0.05). The occurrence and rate of symptoms of duloxetine side effects were not significant.

DISCUSSION

Depression is an important factor to consider and address because its presence before surgery can predict poor postoperative outcomes, including more severe postoperative pain, persistent postoperative pain, and increased consumption of painkillers and opioids.

CONCLUSION

Perioperative administration of duloxetine following ATFL repair for CAI in patients with depression increased the time to first postoperative rescue analgesic request and reduced both opioid consumption and postoperative pain. This approach also led to a high level of patient satisfaction. In addition, duloxetine improved the quality of recovery without leading to significant side effects.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

I; prospective randomized controlled trial.

The Influence of Psychosocial Factors on Disability and Expected Improvement Before Surgery for Adult Traumatic Brachial Plexus Injury

PURPOSE

Psychosocial factors influence pain and recovery after extremity trauma and may be targets for early intervention. This may be of particular interest for patients with adult traumatic brachial plexus injury (BPI), given the broad and devastating impact of the injury. We hypothesized that there would be an association between depressive symptoms, anxiety, and pain interference with preoperative disability and expectations for improvement after BPI surgery.

METHODS

We enrolled 34 patients into a prospective multicenter cohort study for those undergoing surgery for adult traumatic BPI. Before surgery, participants completed Patient-Reported Outcome Measurement Information System scales for pain interference, anxiety, and depressive symptoms, and a validated BPI-specific measure of disability and expected improvement. We performed Pearson correlation analysis between pain interference, anxiety symptoms, and depressive symptoms with (A) disability and (B) expected improvement. We created separate linear regression models for (A) disability and (B) expected improvement including adjustment for severity of plexus injury, age, sex, and race.

RESULTS

Among 34 patients, there was a moderate, statistically significant, correlation between preoperative depressive symptoms and higher disability. This remained significant in a linear regression model adjusted for severity of plexus injury, age, sex, and race. There was no association between severity of plexus injury and disability. Depressive symptoms also were moderately, but significantly, correlated with higher expected improvement. This remained significant in a linear regression model adjusted for severity of plexus injury, age, sex, and race.

CONCLUSIONS

Depressive symptoms are associated with greater disability and higher expected improvement before BPI surgery. Screening for depressive symptoms can help BPI teams identify patients who would benefit from early referral to mental health specialists and tailor appropriate expectations counseling for functional recovery. We did not find an association between severity of BPI and patient-reported disability, suggesting either that the scale may lack validity or that the sample is biased.

TYPE OF STUDY/LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic II.

The impact of pre-operative mental health on outcomes of foot and ankle surgery: A scoping review

BACKGROUND

Evidence suggests that certain groups of orthopaedic patients have an increased prevalence of mental health disorders than the general population. This scoping review aims to evaluate the effect of pre-operative mental health on outcomes of foot and ankle surgery.

METHODS

A literature search was performed in four databases. Studies investigating a relationship between preoperative mental health and postoperative patient reported outcome measures (PROMs), complications, readmissions or reoperations were included.

RESULTS

Of the 19 studies investigating the effect of preoperative mental health on PROMs, 16 (84.2%) reported a significant relationship between poorer preoperative mental health and inferior postoperative PROMs. Poorer mental health was associated with an increased rate of complications, readmissions and/or reoperations in four studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Poorer preoperative mental health is associated with significantly inferior outcomes following foot and ankle surgery. Clinicians should evaluate mental health to stratify likely outcomes and aid in the management of patient expectations.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level IV: Scoping review of Level II-IV studies.

Does anxiety influence outcome measurements in ankle replacement patients?

BACKGROUND

Total ankle arthroplasty (TAA) is increasingly used to treat end-stage ankle arthritis to restore ankle functional outcomes and alleviate pain. This treatment outcome may be influenced by pre-morbid patient anxiety.

METHODS

Twenty-five Infinity TAA implants were prospectively followed post-operatively with a mean follow-up time of 34.18 months. Demographic, clinical, and functional outcomes were assessed. Analysis was performed on the effect of anxiety, reported by the HADS, on patient-perceived postoperative pain, functioning, and quality of life.

RESULTS

Postoperative the PROMs and Range of Motion (ROM) improved significantly. Linear regression analysis and Pearson correlation showed a significant negative effect of anxiety on the postoperative patient-reported outcome measurements (EQ-5D-5L, VAS, and MOxFQ) at the end of follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Good functional, clinical, and radiographic results were observed in this prospective cohort study. Anxiety had a negative influence on the outcome of the patient-reported outcome measurements (EQ-5D-5L and MOxFQ) postoperatively.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III, prospective cohort study.

Association Between Fulfillment of Preoperative Expectations and Diagnosis in Foot and Ankle Surgery

BACKGROUND

There has been growing interest in patient-reported outcomes in foot and ankle surgery, and the fulfillment of patient expectations is a potentially powerful tool that compares preoperative expectations and perceived postoperative improvement. Prior work has validated the use of expectation fulfillment in foot and ankle surgery. However, given the wide spectrum of pathologies and treatments in foot and ankle, no study has examined the association between expectation fulfillment and specific diagnosis.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study consisting of 266 patients who completed the Foot & Ankle Expectations Survey and the Foot and Ankle Outcome Survey (FAOS) preoperatively and 2 years postoperatively. A fulfillment proportion (FP) was calculated using the pre- and postoperative Foot & Ankle Expectations Survey scores. An estimated mean fulfillment proportion for each diagnosis was calculated using a multivariable linear regression model, and pairwise comparisons were used to compare the FP between diagnoses.

RESULTS

All diagnoses had an FP less than 1, indicating partially fulfilled expectations. Ankle arthritis had the highest FP (0.95, 95% CI 0.81-1.08), whereas neuromas and mid/hindfoot diagnoses had the lowest FPs (0.46, 95% CI 0.23-0.68; 0.62, 95% CI 0.45-0.80). Higher preoperative expectations were correlated with lower fulfillment proportions.

CONCLUSION

FP varied with diagnosis and preoperative expectations. An understanding of current expectation fulfillment among different diagnoses in foot and ankle surgery helps highlight areas for improvement in the management of expectations for presumed diagnoses.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III, retrospective review of prospective cohort study.

Two-Year Clinical and Radiologic Outcomes Following Surgical Treatment of Insertional Achilles Tendinopathy Using a Central Tendon-Splitting Approach

BACKGROUND

If conservative treatment of insertional Achilles tendinopathy (IAT) fails, surgery is often considered. Various surgical approaches have been used including the central Achilles tendon splitting approach. This study aimed to report the 2-year clinical and radiologic outcomes after surgical treatment of IAT with a central tendon-splitting approach.

METHODS

Seventy-five cases of IAT treated surgically via the open central tendon-splitting approach were analyzed. Clinical outcomes included the American Orthopaedic Foot & Ankle Society (AOFAS) hindfoot score, visual analog scale (VAS), 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) physical (PCS) and mental (MCS) component summary scores, all measured at baseline and 6 and 24 months postoperatively. Radiologic parameters measured included the Fowler-Philip angle (FPA) and parallel pitch lines (PPL).

RESULTS

Three patients had clinically significant wound issues but healed completely by 3 weeks. Mean AOFAS score improved from 45.63 preoperatively to 94.71 at 24 months. Mean VAS score improved from 6.73 preoperatively to 0.55, mean SF-36 PCS from 35.98 to 48.74, and mean SF-36 MCS from 53.04 to 55.43 at 24 months. Satisfaction at 2 years was 94.3%. Mean FPA decreased from 62.0 degrees preoperatively to 34.0 degrees postoperatively. PPL was positive in 82.7% (62 of 75) of cases preoperatively, decreasing to 1.3% (1 of 75) postoperatively. Increasing age and higher preoperative VAS and SF-36 MCS scores were significantly associated with improvements in postoperative AOFAS, SF-36 PCS, and MCS scores.

CONCLUSION

Surgical treatment of IAT via the central tendon-splitting approach achieved substantial improvements in all patient-reported outcome measures measured. These excellent clinical outcomes continued to show improvement 2 years postoperatively.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III, retrospective cohort study.

What Are Orthopaedic Patients' and Clinical Team Members' Perspectives Regarding Whether and How to Address Mental Health in the Orthopaedic Care Setting? A Qualitative Investigation of Patients With Neck or Back Pain

BACKGROUND

Across virtually all orthopaedic subspecialties, symptoms of depression, anxiety, and unhelpful thinking are associated with worse patient-reported satisfaction with orthopaedic treatment and increased postoperative complications. In the orthopaedic community, there is growing interest in patients' mental health in the orthopaedic care setting, but addressing mental health is still not a focus of orthopaedic clinical training. There is a persistent awareness gap about how to address mental health in orthopaedic care in a manner that is simultaneously feasible in a busy orthopaedic practice and acceptable to patients who are presenting for treatment of a musculoskeletal condition.

QUESTIONS/PURPOSES

(1) What are orthopaedic patients' and clinical team members' current perceptions and motivators regarding addressing mental health as part of orthopaedic care? (2) What barriers do patients and clinicians face regarding addressing mental health as part of orthopaedic care? (3) What are facilitators for patients and clinicians related to addressing mental health as part of orthopaedic care? (4) What are practical, acceptable implementation strategies to facilitate addressing mental health as part of orthopaedic care?

METHODS

This was a single-center, qualitative study conducted from January through May 2022 in the orthopaedic department of a large, urban, tertiary care academic medical center. Semistructured interviews were conducted with members of two stakeholder groups: orthopaedic patients and orthopaedic clinical team members. We interviewed 30 adult patients (of 85 patients who were eligible and approached) who had presented to our orthopaedic department for management of neck or back pain lasting for 3 or more months. By prescreening clinic schedules, patients were purposively sampled to include representatives from varied sociodemographic backgrounds and with a range of severity of self-reported symptoms of depression and anxiety (from none to severe on the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System Depression and Anxiety measures) (mean age 59 ± 14 years, 70% [21 of 30] women, 60% [18 of 30] White, median pain duration 3.3 [IQR 1.8 to 10] years). We also interviewed 22 orthopaedic clinicians and clinical support staff members (of 106 team members who were eligible and 25 who were approached). Team members were purposively sampled to include representatives from the full range of adult orthopaedic subspecialties and early-, mid-, and late-career physicians (11 of 22 were women, 16 of 22 were White, and 13 of 22 were orthopaedic surgeons). Interviews were conducted in person or via secure video conferencing by trained qualitative researchers. The interview guides were developed using the Capability, Opportunity, Motivation, Behavior model of behavior change. Two study team members used the interview transcripts for coding and thematic analysis, and interviews with additional participants from each stakeholder group continued until two study team members independently determined that thematic saturation of the components of the Capability, Opportunity, Motivation, Behavior model had been reached. Each participant statement was coded as a perception, motivator, barrier, facilitator, or implementation strategy, and inductive coding was used to identify themes in each category.

RESULTS

In contrast to the perceptions of some orthopaedic clinicians, most patients with orthopaedic conditions expressed they would like their mental well-being to be acknowledged, if not addressed, as part of a thoughtful orthopaedic care plan. Motivation to address mental health was expressed the most strongly among orthopaedic clinical team members who were aware of high-quality evidence that demonstrated a negative impact of symptoms of depression and anxiety on metrics for which they are publicly monitored or those who perceived that addressing patients' mental health would improve their own quality of life. Barriers described by patients with orthopaedic conditions that were related to addressing mental health in the context of orthopaedic care included clinical team members' use of select stigmatizing words and perceived lack of integration between responses to mental health screening measures and the rest of the orthopaedic care encounter. Orthopaedic clinical team members commonly cited the following barriers: lack of available mental health resources they can refer patients to, uncertainty regarding the appropriateness for them to discuss mental health, and time pressure and lack of expertise or comfort in discussing mental health. Facilitators identified by orthopaedic clinical teams and patients to address mental health in the context of orthopaedic care included the development of efficient, adaptable processes to deliver mental health interventions that preferably avoid wasted paper resources; initiation of mental health-related discussion by an orthopaedic clinical team member in a compassionate, relevant context after rapport with the patient has been established; and the availability of a variety of affordable, accessible mental health interventions to meet patients' varied needs and preferences. Practical implementation strategies identified as suitable in the orthopaedic setting to increase appropriate attention to patients' mental health included training orthopaedic clinical teams, establishing a department or institution "mental health champion," and integrating an automated screening question into clinical workflow to assess patients' interest in receiving mental health-related information.

CONCLUSION

Orthopaedic patients want their mental health to be acknowledged as part of a holistic orthopaedic care plan. Although organization-wide initiatives can address mental health systematically, a key facilitator to success is for orthopaedic clinicians to initiate compassionate, even if brief, conversations with their patients regarding the interconnectedness of mental health and musculoskeletal health. Given the unique challenges to addressing mental health in the orthopaedic care setting, additional research should consider use of a hybrid effectiveness-implementation design to identify effective methods of addressing mental health that are feasible and appropriate for this clinical setting.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Orthopaedic clinicians who have had negative experiences attempting to address mental health with their patients should be encouraged to keep trying. Our results suggest they should feel empowered that most patients want to address mental health in the orthopaedic care setting, and even brief conversations using nonstigmatizing language can be a valuable component of an orthopaedic treatment plan.

Management of Anxiety for Ambulatory Hallux Valgus Surgery With a Virtual Reality Hypnosis Mask: Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of using virtual reality masks for the management of preoperative anxiety and its impact on postoperative and predischarge anxiety as well as postoperative analgesia during outpatient hallux valgus surgery.

METHODS

From June 2020 to September 2021, preoperative anxiety of patients scheduled for a percutaneous hallux valgus surgery were analyzed using the State Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) questionnaire completed during the consultation. All patients with major anxiety, defined as a STAI score above 40, were included in a randomized prospective comparative single-center study. Sixty patients were included in the study and randomized into 2 arms of 30 patients according to whether or not they underwent a preoperative hypnosis session with a virtual reality mask before surgery.

RESULTS

There was an improvement in the postoperative (42.5 vs 45.2, P < .04) and predischarge (25.3 vs 30.2 P < .03) anxiety scores in the group that used the mask before the procedure. There was a notable decrease in immediate higher-level postoperative analgesics such as morphine or ketamine (3.3% vs 26.6%, P < .03) in the arm using the mask.

CONCLUSION

In this study cohort undergoing percutaneous hallux valgus surgery, we found that use of a virtual reality hypnosis mask before surgery modestly reduced postoperative and predischarge anxiety as well as early postoperative consumption of higher-level analgesics in adults with significant preoperative anxiety.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level II, prospective cohort study.

Multi-stakeholder perspectives regarding preferred modalities for mental health intervention delivered in the orthopedic clinic: a qualitative analysis

BACKGROUND

Although depressive and anxious symptoms negatively impact musculoskeletal health and orthopedic outcomes, a gap remains in identifying modalities through which mental health intervention can realistically be delivered during orthopedic care. The purpose of this study was to understand orthopedic stakeholders' perceptions regarding the feasibility, acceptability, and usability of digital, printed, and in-person intervention modalities to address mental health as part of orthopedic care.

METHODS

This single-center, qualitative study was conducted within a tertiary care orthopedic department. Semi-structured interviews were conducted between January and May 2022. Two stakeholder groups were interviewed using a purposive sampling approach until thematic saturation was reached. The first group included adult orthopedic patients who presented for management of ≥ 3 months of neck or back pain. The second group included early, mid, and late career orthopedic clinicians and support staff members. Stakeholders' interview responses were analyzed using deductive and inductive coding approaches followed by thematic analysis. Patients also performed usability testing of one digital and one printed mental health intervention.

RESULTS

Patients included 30 adults out of 85 approached (mean (SD) age 59 [14] years, 21 (70%) women, 12 (40%) non-White). Clinical team stakeholders included 22 orthopedic clinicians and support staff members out of 25 approached (11 (50%) women, 6 (27%) non-White). Clinical team members perceived a digital mental health intervention to be feasible and scalable to implement, and many patients appreciated that the digital modality offered privacy, immediate access to resources, and the ability to engage during non-business hours. However, stakeholders also expressed that a printed mental health resource is still necessary to meet the needs of patients who prefer and/or can only engage with tangible, rather than digital, mental health resources. Many clinical team members expressed skepticism regarding the current feasibility of scalably incorporating in-person support from a mental health specialist into orthopedic care.

CONCLUSIONS

Although digital intervention offers implementation-related advantages over printed and in-person mental health interventions, a subset of often underserved patients will not currently be reached using exclusively digital intervention. Future research should work to identify combinations of effective mental health interventions that provide equitable access for orthopedic patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Not applicable.

Multi-stakeholder perspectives regarding preferred modalities for mental health intervention delivered in the orthopedic clinic: A qualitative analysis

BACKGROUND

Although depressive and anxious symptoms negatively impact musculoskeletal health and orthopedic outcomes, a gap remains in identifying modalities through which mental health intervention can realistically be delivered during orthopedic care. The purpose of this study was to understand orthopedic stakeholders' perspectives regarding the feasibility, acceptability, and usability of digital, printed, and in-person intervention modalities to address mental health as part of orthopedic care.

METHODS

This single-center, qualitative study was conducted within the orthopedic department of a tertiary care center. Semi-structured interviews were conducted between January and May 2022. Two stakeholder groups were interviewed using a purposive sampling approach until thematic saturation was reached. The first group included adult orthopedic patients who presented for management of ≥ 3 months of neck or back pain. The second group included early, mid, and late career orthopedic clinicians and support staff members. Stakeholders' interview responses were analyzed using deductive and inductive coding approaches followed by thematic analysis. Patients also performed usability testing of one digital and one printed mental health intervention.

RESULTS

Patients included 30 adults out of 85 approached (mean (SD) age 59 (14) years, 21 (70%) women, 12 (40%) non-White). Clinical team stakeholders included 22 orthopedic clinicians and support staff members out of 25 approached (11 (50%) women, 6 (27%) non-White). Clinical team members perceived a digital mental health intervention to be feasible and scalable to implement, and many patients appreciated that the digital modality offered privacy, immediate access to resources, and the ability to engage during non-business hours. However, stakeholders also expressed that a printed mental health resource is still necessary to meet the needs of patients who prefer and/or can only engage with tangible, rather than digital, mental health resources. Many clinical team members expressed skepticism regarding the current feasibility of scalably incorporating in-person mental health support into orthopedic care.

CONCLUSIONS

Although digital intervention offers implementation-related advantages over printed and in-person mental health interventions, a subset of often underserved patients will not currently be reached using exclusively digital intervention. Future research should work to identify combinations of effective mental health interventions that provide equitable access for orthopedic patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Not applicable.

Development of a preoperative questionnaire to improve satisfaction with hallux valgus repair: A Delphi study

BACKGROUND

Satisfaction with hallux valgus repair is often poor, despite good surgical outcomes. Many tools have been developed to assess the outcome of the procedure; however none evaluate the association between the initial motive for repair and the reasons for post-surgical dissatisfaction. The aim of this study was to develop a new tool to analyse the subjective and objective expectations of individuals during a pre-operative consultation for hallux valgus repair in order to improve post-surgical satisfaction.

METHODS

We first collected the reasons for dissatisfaction with repair from the medical files of dissatisfied individuals. Then, a steering committee of 4 French experts in the management of hallux valgus designed a questionnaire based on the reasons for dissatisfaction. We then used the DELPHI method to validate the questionnaire: we submitted the questionnaire to a panel of 34 francophone experts in hallux valgus repair for rating in 4 rounds.

RESULTS

The medical files of 853 individuals were reviewed and a 52-item questionnaire relating to expectations from hallux valgus surgery was drafted. After the 4 rounds, a final 44 item questionnaire reached consensus. Thirteen items related to clinical and psychological profile, 5 to pain, 9 to physical activity, 4 to aesthetics and 13 to footwear.

CONCLUSION

This tool should facilitate gathering of individuals' expectations from hallux valgus repair to ensure realistic goals and reduce post-surgical dissatisfaction.

Development and internal validation of a multivariable risk prediction model for severe rebound pain after foot and ankle surgery involving single-shot popliteal sciatic nerve block

BACKGROUND

Rebound pain occurs after up to 50% of ambulatory surgeries involving regional anaesthesia. To assist with risk stratification, we developed a model to predict severe rebound pain after foot and ankle surgery involving single-shot popliteal sciatic nerve block.

METHODS

After ethics approval, we performed a single-centre retrospective cohort study. Patients undergoing lower limb surgery with popliteal sciatic nerve block from January 2016 to November 2019 were included. Exclusion criteria were uncontrolled pain in the PACU, use of a perineural catheter, or loss to follow-up. We developed and internally validated a multivariable logistic regression model for severe rebound pain, defined as transition from well-controlled pain in the PACU (numerical rating scale [NRS] 3 or less) to severe pain (NRS ≥7) within 48 h. A priori predictors were age, sex, surgery type, planned admission, local anaesthetic type, dexamethasone use, and intraoperative anaesthesia type. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), Nagelkerke's R², scaled Brier score, and calibration slope.

RESULTS

The cohort included 1365 patients (mean [standard deviation] age: 50 [16] yr). The primary outcome was abstracted in 1311 (96%) patients, with severe rebound pain in 652 (50%). Internal validation revealed poor model performance, with AUROC 0.632 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.602-0.661; bootstrap optimisation 0.021), Nagelkerke's R² 0.063, and scaled Brier score 0.047. Calibration slope was 0.832 (95% CI: 0.623-1.041).

CONCLUSIONS

We show that a multivariable risk prediction model developed using routinely collected clinical data had poor predictive performance for severe rebound pain after foot and ankle surgery. Prospective studies involving other patient-related predictors are needed.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT05018104.