Prognostic Significance of Ascites and Serum Sodium in Patients with Low Meld Scores

Is the Transplantation of Elderly and DCD Donors in Low MELD Recipients Justified: An Intent-to-treat Analysis

BACKGROUND

Thousands of people die or are removed from the liver transplant waitlist because of deterioration. One major challenge is the donor shortage. Increasing extended criteria donor (ECD) allograft usage can address this. We assessed whether transplanting ECD allografts provides a survival benefit versus remaining on the waitlist for standard allocation.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 132 073 liver transplant recipients from 2002 to 2020 via the United National Organ Sharing database was performed. Three survival analyses were performed on model end-stage liver disease (MELD) score inclusive ranges: 8-9, 10-15, and 16-18. Within each analysis, cohorts were divided into "transplanted" or the corresponding "intent-to-treat (ITT)" category. The transplanted cohort was separated into 2 definitions of ECD allografts: donations after circulatory death and donations from donors older than 70 y, along with all-other allografts. Ten-year survival was compared between the 3 transplanted groups and the ITT group.

RESULTS

When adjusted for covariates, multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analyses demonstrated that both ECD allografts and all-other allografts had better survival as compared with the ITT cohorts in each of separate analyses for MELD range 10-15 and MELD range 16-18 ( P  < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with MELD scores as low as 10, there is a survival benefit to using ECD allografts compared with those followed on an ITT basis.

Is Liver Transplant Justified at Any MELD Score?

BACKGROUND

Assessing the survival benefit of transplantation in patients with end-stage liver disease is critical in guiding the decision-making process for liver allocation. Previous studies established increased mortality risk for those transplanted below Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 18 compared with candidates who remained on the waitlist; however, improved outcomes of liver transplantation and a changing landscape in the donor supply warrant re-evaluation of this idea.

METHODS

Using the United Network for Organ Sharing database, we analyzed 160 290 candidates who were waitlisted for liver transplantation within MELD cohorts. We compared patients who were transplanted in a MELD cohort with those listed but not transplanted in that listed MELD cohort with an intent-to-treat analysis.

RESULTS

Those transplanted at a MELD between 6 and 11 showed a 31% reduction in adjusted mortality (HR = 0.69 [95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66-0.75]; P < 0.001) compared with the intent-to-treat cohort in a Cox multivariate regression. This mortality benefit increased to a 37% adjusted reduction for those transplanted at MELD between 12 and 14 (HR = 0.63 [95% CI, 0.60-0.66]; P < 0.001) and a 46% adjusted reduction for those transplanted at a MELD between 15 and 17 (HR = 0.54 [95% CI, 0.52-0.57]; P < 0.001), effects that remained in sensitivity analyses excluding patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, encephalopathy, ascites, and variceal bleeds. A multivariate analysis of patients transplanted at MELD < 18 found younger age and cold ischemia time were protective, whereas older age, lower functional status, and socioeconomic factors increased mortality risk.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings challenge the current practice of deferring liver transplants below a particular MELD score by demonstrating survival benefits for most transplant patients at the lowest MELD scores and providing insight into who benefits within these subgroups.

Management of refractory ascites

The development of refractory ascites in approximately 10% of patients with decompensated cirrhosis heralds the progression to a more advanced stage of cirrhosis. Its pathogenesis is related to significant hemodynamic changes, initiated by portal hypertension, but ultimately leading to renal hypoperfusion and avid sodium retention. Inflammation can also contribute to the pathogenesis of refractory ascites by causing portal microthrombi, perpetuating the portal hypertension. Many complications accompany the development of refractory ascites, but renal dysfunction is most common. Management starts with continuation of sodium restriction, which needs frequent reviews for adherence; and regular large volume paracentesis of 5 L or more with albumin infusions to prevent the development of paracentesisinduced circulatory dysfunction. Albumin infusions independent of paracentesis may have a role in the management of these patients. The insertion of a covered, smaller diameter, transjugular intrahepatic porto-systemic stent shunt (TIPS) in the appropriate patients with reasonable liver reserve can bring about improvement in quality of life and improved survival after ascites clearance. Devices such as an automated low-flow ascites pump may be available in the future for ascites treatment. Patients with refractory ascites should be referred for liver transplant, as their prognosis is poor. In patients with refractory ascites and concomitant chronic kidney disease of more than stage 3b, assessment should be referred for dual liver-kidney transplants. In patients with very advanced cirrhosis not suitable for any definitive treatment for ascites control, palliative care should be involved to improve the quality of life of these patients.

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model for One-year Survival of Cirrhosis Patients with First-ever Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is one of the leading causes of death in patients with liver cirrhosis. We aimed to establish a prognostic model to evaluate the 1-year survival of cirrhosis patients after the first episode of SBP.

METHODS

A prognostic model was developed based on a retrospective derivation cohort of 309 cirrhosis patients with first-ever SBP and was validated in a separate validation cohort of 141 patients. We used Uno's concordance, calibration curve, and decision curve (DCA) analysis to evaluate the discrimination, calibration, and clinical net benefit of the model.

RESULTS

A total of 59 (19.1%) patients in the derivation cohort and 42 (29.8%) patients in the validation cohort died over the course of 1 year. A prognostic model in nomogram form was developed with predictors including age [hazard ratio (HR): 1.25; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.92-1.71], total serum bilirubin (HR: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.28-2.14), serum sodium (HR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.90-0.98), history of hypertension (HR: 2.52; 95% CI: 1.44-4.41) and hepatic encephalopathy (HR: 2.06; 95% CI: 1.13-3.73). The nomogram had a higher concordance (0.79) compared with the model end-stage liver disease (0.67) or Child-Turcotte-Pugh (0.71) score. The nomogram also showed acceptable calibration (calibration slope, 1.12; Bier score, 0.15±0.21) and optimal clinical net benefit in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

This prediction model developed based on characteristics of first-ever SBP patients may benefit the prediction of patients' 1-year survival.

Severity of Ascites Is Associated with Increased Mortality in Patients with Cirrhosis Secondary to Biliary Atresia

BACKGROUND

Very few prior studies have investigated the presence of ascites as a prognostic factor in children with cirrhosis. To the best of our knowledge, there are no prior studies evaluating the relationship between severity of ascites and patient survival in children with biliary atresia and cirrhosis.

AIMS

To evaluate the association between severity of ascites and survival of children with cirrhosis and biliary atresia.

METHODS

All children with cirrhosis secondary to biliary atresia evaluated at our institution from 2000 to 2014 were included in this study. Patients were classified into four groups: NA = no ascites; A1 = grade 1 ascites; A2 = grade 2 ascites; and A3 = grade 3 ascites. The primary endpoint of the study was mortality within the first year after patient inclusion. Ninety-day mortality was also evaluated. Prognostic factors related to both endpoints also were studied.

RESULTS

One-year patient survival for NA was 97.1%, versus 80.8% for A1, versus 52% for A2, versus 13.6 for A3 (p < 0.001). The presence of ascites increased mortality by 17 times. In the multivariate analysis, clinically detectable ascites (HR 3.14, 95% CI 1.14-8.60, p = 0.026), lower sodium (HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.04-1.27, p = 0.006), higher bilirubin (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00-1.12, p = 0.023), and higher PELD score (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.08, p = 0.001) were all associated with decreased survival. Lower serum sodium (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.09-1.32, p < 0.001) and higher PELD score (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.001-1.063, p = 0.043) were associated with increased 90-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinically detectable ascites is associated with decreased 1-year survival of children with biliary atresia. These patients should be treated with caution and prioritized for liver transplantation.

A Comprehensive Review of Outcome Predictors in Low MELD Patients

Risk scoring for patients with cirrhosis has evolved greatly over the past several decades. However, patients with low Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium scores still suffer from liver-related morbidity and mortality. Unfortunately, it is not clear which of these low Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium score patients would benefit from earlier consideration of liver transplantation. This article reviews the literature of risk prediction in patients with cirrhosis, identifies which patients may benefit from earlier interventions, such as transplantation, and proposes directions for future research.

Hypervolemic hyponatremia and transplant-free survival in children with cirrhosis due to biliary atresia

BACKGROUND

Biliary atresia is the number one cause of cirrhosis and liver transplantation in children. Hyponatremia is the most important electrolytic disturbance observed in decompensated cirrhosis. Studies of hyponatremia in cirrhotic children are scarce and those that exist have defined hyponatremia as serum sodium < 130 mEq/L lasting for at least 7 days.

METHODS

We evaluated transplant-free survival (Kaplan-Meier) of children with cirrhosis due to biliary atresia and serum sodium < 130 mEq/L persisting for 1, 2-6, and ≥7 days. This was a single-center, historical cohort that included all patients aged ≤ 18 years on a liver transplantation waiting list.

RESULTS

We studied 128 patients. The overall frequency of hyponatremia was 30.5% (39/128). Thirteen patients (10.2%) had hyponatremia when put on the list, and 20.3% developed it during follow-up. The Kaplan-Meier overall transplant-free survival rate was 83.3%. Patients with persistent hyponatremia for at least two days had the lowest transplant-free survival. Glomerular filtration rate (P = .00, RR = 0.96, IC 95% = 0.94-0.99), BMI/age Z-score (P = .02, RR = 0.59, IC 95% = 0.39-0.91), INR (P = .00, RR = 1.43, IC 95% = 1.17-1.74), and serum sodium (P = .04, RR = 0.91, IC 95% = 0.84-0.99) were independently associated with transplant-free survival. We did not observe any difference in mortality prediction after adding sodium to the original PELD score.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that persistent hyponatremia lasting at least two days may herald poor prognosis for children with cirrhosis due to biliary atresia.

Ascites and Hepatorenal Syndrome

Ascites occurs in up to 70% of patients during the natural history of cirrhosis. Management of uncomplicated ascites includes sodium restriction and diuretic therapy, whereas that for refractory ascites (RA) is regular large-volume paracentesis with transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt being offered in appropriate patients. Renal impairment occurs in up to 50% of patients with RA with type 1 hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) being most severe. Liver transplant remains the definitive treatment of eligible candidates with HRS, whereas combined liver and kidney transplant should be considered in patients requiring dialysis for more than 4 to 6 weeks or those with underlying chronic kidney disease.

An update on the pathogenesis and clinical management of cirrhosis with refractory ascites

Ascites commonly complicates cirrhosis, becoming refractory to treatment with diuretics and sodium restriction in approximately 10% of patients. Pathogenesis of refractory ascites (RA) is multifactorial, the common final pathway being renal hypoperfusion and avid sodium retention. Refractory ascites has a negative prognostic implication in the natural history of cirrhosis. Management of RA include sodium restriction and regular large volume paracentesis (LVP) with albumin infusions, preventing paracentesis-induced circulatory dysfunction. In appropriate setting, transjugular intrahepatic porto-systemic shunt (TIPS) can be considered. Ascites clearance with TIPS can lead to nutritional improvement, avoiding sarcopenia. Liver transplantation (LT) remains the definitive treatment for eligible candidates. Areas covered: Our review summarizes current updates on pathogenesis and clinical management of RA including potential future therapeutic options such as the automated slow-flow ascites pump, chronic outpatient albumin infusion and cell-free and concentrated ascites reinfusion therapy. Expert commentary: Standard of care in patients with RA include LVP with albumin replacement and prompt referral for LT where indicated. Other novel therapeutic options on the horizon include automated low-flow ascites pump and cell-free, concentrated albumin reinfusion therapy.

Refractory Ascites in Liver Cirrhosis

Ascites, a common complication of liver cirrhosis, eventually becomes refractory to diuretic therapy and sodium restriction in ∼10% of patients. Multiple pathogenetic factors are involved in the development of refractory ascites, which ultimately lead to renal hypoperfusion and avid sodium retention. Therefore, renal dysfunction commonly accompanies refractory ascites. Management includes continuation of sodium restriction, which needs frequent reviews for adherence; and regular large volume paracentesis of 5 L or more with albumin infusions to prevent the development of paracentesis-induced circulatory dysfunction. In the appropriate patients with reasonable liver reserve, the insertion of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent shunt (TIPS) can be considered, especially if the patient is relatively young and has no previous hepatic encephalopathy or anatomical contraindications, and no past history of renal or cardiopulmonary disease. Response to TIPS with ascites clearance can lead to nutritional improvement. Devices such as an automated low-flow ascites pump may be available in the future for ascites treatment. Patients with refractory ascites and poor liver function and/or renal dysfunction, should be referred for liver transplant, as this will eliminate the portal hypertension and liver dysfunction. Renal dysfunction prior to liver transplant largely improves after transplant without affecting post-transplant survival.