A Hybrid Approach to Tea Crop Yield Prediction Using Simulation Models and Machine Learning

Tea (Camellia sinensis L.) is one of the most highly consumed beverages globally after water. Several countries import large quantities of tea from other countries to meet domestic needs. Therefore, accurate and timely prediction of tea yield is critical. The previous studies used statistical, deep learning, and machine learning techniques for tea yield prediction, but crop simulation models have not yet been used. However, the calibration of a simulation model for tea yield prediction and the comparison of these approaches is needed regarding the different data types. This research study aims to provide a comparative study of the methods for tea yield prediction using the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations AquaCrop simulation model and machine learning techniques. We employed weather, soil, crop, and agro-management data from 2016 to 2019 acquired from tea fields of the National Tea and High-Value Crop Research Institute (NTHRI), Pakistan, to calibrate the AquaCrop simulation model and to train regression algorithms. We achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.45 t/ha, a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.23 t/ha, and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.48 t/ha in the calibration of the AquaCrop model and, out of the ten regression models, we achieved the lowest MAE of 0.093 t/ha, MSE of 0.015 t/ha, and RMSE of 0.120 t/ha using 10-fold cross-validation and MAE of 0.123 t/ha, MSE of 0.024 t/ha, and RMSE of 0.154 t/ha using the XGBoost regressor with train test split. We concluded that the machine learning regression algorithm performed better in yield prediction using fewer data than the simulation model. This study provides a technique to improve tea yield prediction by combining different data sources using a crop simulation model and machine learning algorithms.

How climate change is impacting the major yield crops of Pakistan? an exploration from long- and short-run estimation

This research attempts to evaluate the linkage among climatic change factors such as average temperature and rainfall patterns and non-climatic factors such as the area under major yield crops, fertilizer consumption, and formal credit on major food crop yield from 1985 to 2016 in Pakistan. For the first step, we checked the stationarity of the series by utilizing the unit root tests. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was employed to identify the linkages between variables after verifying the properties over a specific period of time. The consequences of this study confirmed the long-run association between climatic and non-climatic factors to the major food crop yield in Pakistan. Furthermore, the outcomes of the study revealed that temperature has a diverse impact on major food crop yields. Whereas, the area under major food crops, average rainfall, fertilizer consumption, and formal credit have a positive impact on major food crop yield in Pakistan. For the second step, we used the Granger causality test to verify the causal linkage for the variables. The outcomes reveal a significant effect of climatic and non-climatic factors on major food crop yield. The bidirectional causality causal associations are found to be significant among variables including average temperature, fertilizer consumption, and formal credit disbursement. The empirical results further indicated that major food crop yields are more affected by climatic factors such as average temperature as compared to non-climatic factors. Based on the study findings, few recommendations are made to cope with factors of climate change. Invent such agricultural-specific adaptation policies for farmers which possess the ability and resilience to tackle climate change. Research and development in agriculture should focus on major varieties of food crops that can endure high temperatures. The agriculture industry will be able to sustain long-term production and distribution efficiency attributable to these strategies.

Contribution of Small-Scale Agroforestry to Local Economic Development and Livelihood Resilience: Evidence from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province (KPK), Pakistan

Agroforestry plays a vital role in enhancing environmental sustainability, improving local economies, and reducing poverty through livelihood resilience. Several researchers have studied the importance of agroforestry, but little attention has been paid to livelihood resilience and local economic development in developing countries. This study aims to find the role of small-scale agroforestry in local economic development in the Shangla and Swat districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) Province, Pakistan. In this study, a total of 350 quantitative household surveys, 12 qualitative household case studies, and interviews of experts are used. The ordinary least squares (OLS), linear regression model, household income, wealth index, and five capitals of sustainable livelihood approach (SLA) were used to measure livelihood resilience. Results show several significant findings which may apply on a larger scale and in other cities of Pakistan or other countries. First, it directly shows the association between agroforestry, resilience-building, and local economic development. Second, financial capital can be improved through agroforestry, which can improve other capital assets. Third, small-scale agroforestry brings non-financial benefits such as environmental sustainability, improved living standards, reduced soil erosion, and provided shade. Fourth, irrigation plays a vital role in building livelihood resilience and promoting agroforestry. Lastly, on-farm diversity can be improved through agroforestry. This research discusses several practical implications along with recommendations for future research.

Improving oxidative stability of foods with apple-derived polyphenols

Consumers demand healthy and natural food products. Thus, naturally derived antioxidants are emerging as a promising alternative to the use of present ingredients. Apples and apple derivative products (e.g., apple juice, apple cider, apple sauce, and others) are widely consumed throughout the world for a variety of different reasons and supply a large quantity of polyphenolic compounds. The extraction of polyphenolic compounds from apples and their incorporation into processed foods as naturally sourced ingredients could be a preferred alternative to commonly used commercial antioxidants that are used in many foods. In addition, they could have a positive impact on the environment and on the economy due to the utilization of byproducts generated during processing of apples, like apple pomace. In terms of the extraction procedures for the antioxidant compounds found in apples, the most efficient processes are methods that use ultrasound as the extraction tool. With this technique, greater yields are achieved, and less extraction time is required when compared with other, more conventional, extraction methods. However, parameters such as the extraction solvent, temperature during extraction, and extraction time must be suitably optimized in order to obtain the best performance and the highest antioxidant capacity. From an application standpoint, the use of apple-derived polyphenol extracts as a naturally derived food additive has documented applications for bread, meat, fish, cookies, and juices and there is evidence of increased antioxidant capacity, reduced rate of lipid oxidation, and increased storage time without compromising on sensory properties.

Factors driving the exposure to information sources: Pakistani farmers' information behavior

The purpose of the present study is to examine the factors behind the selection and exposure of information sources by Pakistani farmers. This study is based on a quantitative research approach that involved survey design for the collection of data. The population of the present investigation was the farmers who have involved in any type of farming in District Okara province Punjab, Pakistan. A convenient sampling technique was used to select a sample from the different three tehsils of District Okara. A survey questionnaire was employed to collect data. Results proved that characteristics of information i.e. accessibility, usefulness, and credibility have a significant impact on the frequency of information sources/channels exposure, however, convenience proved an insignificant factor to farmers’ information sources exposure. Results further confirm that farming experience has a negative association with information exposure among Pakistani farmers. Since the usefulness and credibility of information sources trigger their use among farmers, therefore, farmers’ societies, agents, and government officials should work on developing credible content and highlighting the usefulness of different available information sources and channels.

Evaluation of pasture allowance of manganese for ruminants

The aim of this study was to access the Mn contamination in soil, forages, and animals. Heavy metal pollution is a matter of prime significance in natural environment. Through food chain, toxicity of heavy metals and their bioaccumulation potential are transferred into humans. Higher concentrations of metallic compounds are toxic to living organisms but these are essential to maintain body metabolism. Intake of food crops polluted with heavy metals is chief food chain channel for human exposure. Animals are exposed to heavy metal stress by the intake of richly contaminated food crops; those are chief part of food chain. Samples of soil, plant, animal blood, hair, and feces were collected to find contamination through wet digestion process in lab and metal analysis. Different forages were collected to study Mn content that was our major concern in this study. The present findings also emphasized on the assessment of bio-concentration factor (BCF). Other significant indices of mobility and pollution of metal were also calculated, i.e. pollution load index (PLI), daily intake of metal (DIM), health risk index (HRI), and enrichment factor (EF). The experimentation result showed different concentrations of metal in different seasons. The Mn concentration in forages was 20.01-28.29 mg/kg and in soil was 5.27-8.90 mg/kg. Soil samples showed higher level of (PLI) Pollution load index. Bio-concentration of MN was 2.59-4.21 mg/kg. It can be concluded that regular monitoring of the metal is essential to evaluate the contamination status. Mn contents were in the safe limits in soil and plants; however, its toxic level was observed in animals.

Managing Water and Salt for Sustainable Agriculture in the Indus Basin of Pakistan

The Indus basin of Pakistan occupies about 16 million ha (Mha) of land. The Indus River and its tributaries are the primary sources of surface water. An estimated 122 km3 of surface water is diverted annually through an extensive canal system to irrigate this land. These surface water supplies are insufficient to meet the crop water requirements for the intensive cropping system practiced in the Indus basin. The shortfall in surface water is met by exploiting groundwater. Currently, about 62 km3 of groundwater is pumped annually by 1.36 million private and public tube wells. About 1.0 million tubewells are working only in the Punjab province. Small private tubewells account for about 80% of the pumped volume. Inadequate water allocation along the irrigation canals allows excessive water use by head-end farmers, resulting in waterlogging. In contrast, the less productive use of erratic supplies by tail-end farmers often results in soil salinity. The major issues faced by irrigated agriculture in Pakistan are low crop yields and water use efficiency, increasing soil salinization, water quality deterioration, and inefficient drainage effluent disposal. Currently, 4.5 Mha (about 30% of the total irrigated area) suffers from adverse salinity levels. Critical governance issues include inequitable water distribution, minimizing the extent to which salt is mobilized, controlling excessive groundwater pumping, and immediate repair and maintenance of the infrastructure. This paper suggests several options to improve governance, water and salt management to support sustainable irrigated agriculture in Pakistan. In saline groundwater areas, the rotational priorities should be reorganized to match the delivery schedules as closely as possible to crop demand, while emphasizing the reliability of irrigation schedules. Wherever possible, public tubewells should pump fresh groundwater into distributaries to increase water availability at the tail ends. Any substantial reform to make water delivery more flexible and responsive would require an amendment to the existing law and reconfiguration of the entire infrastructure, including thousands of kilometers of channels and almost 60,000 outlets to farmer groups. Within the existing political economy of Pakistan, changing the current water allocation and distribution laws without modernizing the infrastructure would be complicated. A realistic reform program should prioritize interventions that do not require amendment of the Acts or reconstruction of the entire system and are relatively inexpensive. If successful, such interventions may provide the basis for further, more substantial reforms. The present rotational water supply system should continue, with investments focusing on lining channels to ensure equitable water distribution and reduce waterlogging at the head ends. Besides that, the reuse of drainage water should be encouraged to minimize disposal volumes. The timely availability of farm inputs can improve individual farmers’ productivity. Farmers will need to have access to new information on improved irrigation management and soil reclamation approaches. Simultaneously, the government should focus more on the management of drainage and salinity.

Biochemical Profiling for Antioxidant and Therapeutic Potential of Pakistani Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) Genetic Resource

In Pakistan, chickpeas (Cicer arietinum L.) are the largest grown legume crops, especially in desert areas. Along with an excellent source of nutrition, chickpea seeds have discernible medicinal and antioxidant characteristics. The diverse set of 90 chickpea genotypes (66 desi and 24 kabuli) were collected from different research zones in Pakistan, and seed flour was used for biochemical profiling. Genotypes were significantly different (Tukey HSD test, P < 0.05) for the traits under investigation. In non-enzymatic antioxidants, highest seed total phenolic contents (TPC) (34725 ± 275 μM/g s. wt.) was found in CM-98 (desi), ascorbic acid (AsA) (69.23 ± 2.25 μg/g s. wt.) in WH-3 (desi), and total flavonoid content (TFC) (394.98 ± 13.06 μg/mL sample) was detected in WH-11 (desi). In the class of enzymatic antioxidants, the highest seed ascorbate peroxidase (APX) (1680 ± 40 Units/g s. wt.) was detected in Tamman-2013 (kabuli), peroxidases (POD) (2564.10 ± 233.10 Units/g s. wt.) activity in CM1235/08 (desi), and superoxide dismutase (SOD) (279.76 ± 50 Units/g s. wt.) was detected in CH24/11 (desi). Highest seed catalase activity (CAT) (893 ± 50 Units/g s. wt.) and proline content (272.50 ± 20.82 μg/g s. wt.) was detected in an ICC-4951 (desi). In hydrolytic enzymes, the highest activity of esterase (37.05 μM/min/g s. wt) was found in, CH56/09(Kabuli), protease (11080 ± 10 Units/g s. wt.) in Karak-2 (desi), and α-amylase (213.02 ± 3.20 mg/g s. wt.) was observed in CH74/08 (kabuli). In other biochemical parameters, the highest seed total oxidant status (TOS) (356 ± 17.50 μM/g s. wt.) was detected in CM3457/91 (desi); malondialdehyde (MDA) content (295.74 ± 3.097 uM/g s. wt.) was observed in CM-2008 (kabuli), and total antioxidant capacity (TAC) (8.36 ± 0.082 μM/g s. wt.) was found in CM-72 (desi). In case of pigment analysis, Sheenghar-2000 (desi) depicted highest lycopene (12.579 ± 0.313 μg/g s. wt.) and total carotenoids (58.430.23 ± 0.569 μg/g s. wt.) contents. For seed therapeutic potential, the highest seed α-amylase inhibition (82.33 ± 8.06%) was observed in CM-88 (desi), while WH-1, WH-6, and ICCV-96030 (desi) depicted the highest value for seed anti-inflammatory potential (78.88 ± 0.55%). Genotypes with the highest antioxidant and therapeutic potential can be utilized as a natural antioxidant source and in breeding programs aimed at improving these traits in new breeding lines.

The Impacts of Climate Variability on Crop Yields and Irrigation Water Demand in South Asia

Accurate (spatio-temporal) estimation of the crop yield relation to climate variables is essential in the densely populated Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) river basins of South Asia for devising appropriate adaptation strategies to ensure regional food and water security. This study examines wheat (Triticum aestivum) and rice (Oryza sativa) crop yields’ sensitivity to primary climate variables (i.e., temperature and precipitation) and related changes in irrigation water demand at different spatial (i.e., province/state, districts and grid cell) and temporal (i.e., seasonal and crop growth phase) scales. To estimate the climate driven variations in crop yields, observed and modelled data applying the Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) model are used for six selected study sites in the IGB river basins over the period 1981–2010. Our statistical analysis underscores the importance of impacts assessments at higher spatio-temporal scales. Our grid cell (aggregated over study sites) scale analysis shows that 27–72% variations in wheat and 17–55% in rice crop yields are linked with temperature variations at a significance level of p < 0.001. In the absence of irrigation application, up to 39% variations in wheat and up to 75% variations in rice crop yields are associated with precipitation changes in all study sites. Whereas, observed crop yields show weak correlations with temperature at a coarser resolution, i.e., up to 4% at province and up to 31% at district scales. Crop yields also showed stronger sensitivity to climate variables at higher temporal scale (i.e., vegetative and reproductive phases) having statistically strong negative relationship with temperature and positive with precipitation during the reproductive phase. Similarly, crop phase-specific variations in climate variables have considerable impacts (i.e., quantity and timing) on irrigation water demand. For improved crop water planning, we suggest integrated climate impact assessments at higher spatio-temporal scales which can help to devise appropriate adaptation strategies for sustaining future food demand.

Comparative efficacy of mitigation techniques for the detoxification of Prunus persica (L.) from selected pesticide residues

Fruits are the valuable and important components of human diet. Among them, Prunus persica is a rich source of different minerals and dietary fibers. In Pakistan, the total annual production of P. persica is approximately 837,000 tons. In order to enhance agricultural yield and quality, the plant protection agents are employed during fruit production. Ultimately, this in turn leads to the incorporation of pesticide residues in fruits. In present study, an effort has been made for the determination of three selected pesticide residues, i.e., chlorpyrifos (CPF), difenoconazole (DFN), and carbendazim (CRB) in samples of P. persica collected from Swat territory. Samples were analyzed through high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Results revealed the occurrence of all three pesticides in studied samples; however, levels of CPF and DFN were found to be higher than MRLs. Moreover, the effects of different mitigation techniques revealed that highest reduction of CPF, DFN, and CRB (86%, 97%, 89%) residues was obtained by treatment with 10% CH₃COOH followed by 10% NaCl (74%, 78%, 84%). The lowest reduction was obtained by treatment with 10% solution of NaOH (52%, 55%, 63%).

Does Chinese FDI, Climate Change, and CO2 Emissions Stimulate Agricultural Productivity? An Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

Pakistan’s agricultural sector growth is dwindling from the last several years due to insufficient foreign direct investment (FDI) and a drastic climate change-induced raise in temperature, which are severely affecting agricultural production. The FDI has paramount importance for the economy of developing countries as well as the improvement of agricultural production. Based on the time series data from 1984 to 2017, this paper aims to highlight the present situation of the agriculture sector of Pakistan and empirically analyze the short-run and long-run impact of Chinese foreign direct investment (CFDI), climate change, and CO2 emissions on agricultural productivity and causality among the variables. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) model and Granger Causality test were employed to find out the long-run, short-run, and causal relationships among the variables of interest. Furthermore, we have employed the Error Correction Model (ECM) to know the convergence of the equilibrium path. The bound test results verified the existence of a long-run association, and the empirical findings confirmed that Chinese FDI has a significant and positive impact, while climate change and CO2 emissions has negative impact on the agricultural growth of Pakistan both in the short-run and long-run. Granger Causality test results revealed that variables of interest exhibit bi-directional and uni-directional causality. The sector-wise flow of FDI reveals that the agriculture sector of Pakistan has comparatively received a less amount of FDI than other sectors of the economy. Based on the findings, it was suggested to the Government of Pakistan and policymakers to induce more FDI in the agriculture sector. Such policies would be helpful for the progress of the agriculture sector as well as for the economic growth of Pakistan.

Agenda Setting in Water and IWRM: Discourse Analysis of Water Policy Debate in Pakistan

This article explores the water policy narrative in Pakistan, and identifies its historical trajectories and influences, as well as the impact of the global agenda setting of water for 2030. For this purpose, water sector reforms in Pakistan are examined as a case study. The National Water Policy (NWP) 2018 and Participatory Irrigation Management (PIM) reforms are critically evaluated and loopholes identified, in terms of both theoretical aspects and constraints in their practical implementation. The overall analysis reveals that the engineering narrative is dominant in policy circles and large-scale infrastructure construction is seen as an exceptional measure to overcome the current loss of storage potential due to sedimentation. On the other hand, the adoption of the Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) framework reflects the desire of state institutions to imbue water policy reform with international credibility. The IWRM framework has been adopted as isomorphic mimicry to appease international financing institutions and donors. PIM reform is thus far from delivering the desired results due to ideological battles among new (i.e., the Participatory Farmers Institution) and traditional bureaucratic irrigation institutions. As adopted, the global agenda setting of water, in the shape of IWRM, is a repackaging of existing activities, and prevents alternative thinking in the setting of water priorities according to developmental needs.

Effect of apple pomace on nutrition, rheology of dough and cookies quality

Agro-industrial waste material is a rich source of various bioactive components and fiber. Apple pomace is a by-product of apple juice processing unit. It contains a plethora of phenolic compounds and dietary fiber. The addition of apple pomace in bakery items is a judicious approach to utilize the apple juice processing industry waste material in nutritional product development. Purposely, in the current research the apple pomace was collected from the juice processing industry followed by drying at 58-60 °C. The dried pomace was ground added in wheat flour (AARI-11) at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25% to prepare cookies. The wheat flour (AARI-11) contained crude fiber (0.57%), crude protein (10.71%) and total phenolic contents (1.35 mg/g) while apple pomace showed higher contents of dietary fiber and total phenolic contents i.e. 10.85% and 9.75 mg/g respectively. Maximum values of physical characteristics of cookies such as thickness and width were found in T₀ as 1.47 mm and 5.13 mm, respectively. On the other hand, spread factor and hardness changed and maximum value was observed in T₅ as 46.20 and 1555.5 n/m² respectively. Based on the sensory and compositional attributes, it was concluded that good quality cookies with improved organoleptic properties can be prepared through using 10% apple pomace powder with wheat flour.

Energy consumption and agricultural economic growth in Pakistan: is there a nexus?

Purpose

This study aims to empirically examine the relationship between energy consumption and agricultural economic growth in Pakistan over the period from 1984 to 2016.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration to investigate the long-run and short-run determinants of agricultural economic growth in Pakistan.

Findings

The results of the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration revealed that long-run linkage exists among the study variables. The findings of this paper showed that agricultural economic growth is positively affected by gas consumption and electricity consumption both in the long-run and short run. The long-run and short-run coefficients of gas consumption and electricity consumption were estimated to be 0.906, 0.421, 0.595 and 0.276, respectively. The estimated equation remains stable during the period from 1984 to 2016 as analyzed by the stability tests.

Originality/value

This study considers the relationship between energy consumption and agricultural economic growth in Pakistan by using an ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration. The study has three contributions to economic literature:this study used different unit root tests to test stationarity of the variables such as ADF unit root test by Dicky and Fuller and P-P unit root test by Philip and Perron; the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration is applied to test the existence of long-run analysis between energy consumption and agricultural economic growth; and to check the robustness, the authors used the Johansen cointegration test to examine the long-run relationship between dependent and independent variables.

Potential Toxic Metal Accumulation in Soil, Forage and Blood Plasma of Buffaloes Sampled from Jhang, Pakistan

This study was conducted to determine the concentration of toxic metals in soil, forage and blood plasma of lactating and non-lactating buffaloes in the district Jhang, Punjab, Pakistan. Soil samples were collected from varying distances from the road side. Plasma separation was achieved by centrifugation. The concentration of arsenic (As), selenium (Se), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), iron (Fe), zinc (Zn), copper (Cu) and cobalt (Co) were determined by using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer. The results of the study showed that the mean As, Se and Cd concentrations in soil samples were lower while Cr, Fe, Zn, Cu and Co were higher than the official guidelines. In plasma samples, mean concentration values of Co, Zn, Fe, Cd, Se and As were lower while Cu and Cr were higher than the recommended concentrations. According to the results of the study there was no potential exposure of toxicity in buffaloes of the study area.