1
|
Nakajima K, Sekine A, Higuchi R, Enokido M, Matsui S. Possible pitfalls in the prediction of weight gain in middle-aged normal-weight individuals: Results from the NDB-K7Ps-study-2. Obes Res Clin Pract 2024:S1871-403X(24)00085-1. [PMID: 39084944 DOI: 10.1016/j.orcp.2024.07.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2023] [Revised: 07/08/2024] [Accepted: 07/21/2024] [Indexed: 08/02/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The prevalence of obesity has not decreased worldwide and obesity-related morbidities have been increasing steadily. However, few studies have investigated factors contributing to weight gain in normal-weight individuals. Thus, in this community-based cohort study, we aimed to investigate factors contributing to weight gain in normal-weight participants. METHODS Clinical variables and 10 % increase in weight over 10 years (10 %IBW10Y) were retrospectively investigated in apparently healthy 615,077 normal-weight (body mass index (BMI) 21.0-24.9 kg/m2) participants aged 40-64 years who had regularly undergone health checkup. Machine learning and logistic regression analysis (nested case-control study) were used to predict 10 %IBW10Y. RESULTS In total, 6.8 % of men and 8.9 % of women had 10 %IBW10Y (P < 0.0001). The prevalence of obesity (BMI ≥25.0 kg/m2) after 10 years and weight gain were higher in participants with 10 %IBW10Y (72.3 %, 8.9 kg) (case-group) versus those without 10 %IBW10Y (11.5 %, -0.4 kg) (control-group), respectively. Machine learning showed positive contributing factors to 10 %IBW10Y were, in descending order, age early 40 s, current smoking, female sex, low serum triglyceride (≤59 mg/dL), and low glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) (≤4.9 %). Age early 60 s, non-smoking, male sex, high triglyceride (≥200 mg/dL), and HbA1c 6.0 %-6.9 % were negative contributing factors. Logistic regression analysis showed similar results except for high HbA1c (≥7.5 %) as a positive contributing factor. CONCLUSIONS In middle-aged individuals with normal weight who undergo regular health check-ups, certain favorable features (female sex, low triglyceride, and low HbA1c), as well as smoking habits that are subject to change in the future, which could lead to weight gain, may be overlooked. 250 <250 words.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kei Nakajima
- Food and Nutrition, Faculty of Human Sciences and Design, Japan Women's University, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 112-8681, Japan; Saitama Medical Center, Department of Endocrinology and Diabetes, Saitama Medical University, Kawagoe 350-8550, Japan.
| | - Airi Sekine
- Food and Nutrition, Faculty of Human Sciences and Design, Japan Women's University, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 112-8681, Japan
| | - Ryoko Higuchi
- School of Nutrition and Dietetics, Faculty of Health and Social Services, Kanagawa University of Human Services, Yokosuka 238-8522, Japan
| | - Mai Enokido
- Food and Nutrition, Faculty of Human Sciences and Design, Japan Women's University, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 112-8681, Japan
| | - Sadako Matsui
- Food and Nutrition, Faculty of Human Sciences and Design, Japan Women's University, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 112-8681, Japan
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Ohira T, Eguchi E, Hayashi F, Kinuta M, Imano H. Epidemiology of cardiovascular disease in Japan: An overview study. J Cardiol 2024; 83:191-200. [PMID: 37591340 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjcc.2023.08.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2023] [Revised: 06/20/2023] [Accepted: 08/10/2023] [Indexed: 08/19/2023]
Abstract
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), such as heart disease and stroke, have a significant impact on life expectancy, healthy life expectancy, and medical costs in Japan. Each prefecture is currently promoting measures in accordance with the Japanese National Plan for Promotion of Measures Against Cerebrovascular and Cardiovascular Disease, which was established by the government. In recent years, the crude mortality rate of heart disease in Japan has been increasing year by year with the aging population. Meanwhile, the age-adjusted mortality rate has leveled off or shown a downward trend. In addition, the proportion of acute myocardial infarction has decreased, whereas the proportion of heart failure has increased. By contrast, both the crude and age-adjusted mortality rates of stroke have a declining trend. Nevertheless, considering the potential variations in death certificates issued for patients with myocardial infarction across different prefectures, it is crucial to determine the incidence of CVD in each prefecture for the accurate assessment of CVD trends. However, as for the incidence of CVD, not many prefectures have yet implemented registration programs. The age-adjusted incidence rate of acute myocardial infarction has been increasing in some areas and decreasing in others since 1990. The age-adjusted incidence rate of stroke has consistently declined since the 1960s. Nevertheless, the possible increase in the incidence rate of cerebral embolism and thrombotic cerebral infarction among patients with different stroke subtypes is a cause of concern. The impact of heart failure on the incidence of heart disease has increased. Therefore, relevant academic societies and prefectures must collaborate in registering the incidence of heart failure as well as myocardial infarction and implementing countermeasures.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Tetsuya Ohira
- Department of Epidemiology, Fukushima Medical University School of Medicine, Fukushima, Japan.
| | - Eri Eguchi
- Department of Epidemiology, Fukushima Medical University School of Medicine, Fukushima, Japan
| | - Fumikazu Hayashi
- Department of Epidemiology, Fukushima Medical University School of Medicine, Fukushima, Japan
| | - Minako Kinuta
- Department of Public Health, Okayama University Graduate School of Medicine, Dentistry and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Okayama, Japan
| | - Hironori Imano
- Department of Public Health, Kindai University Faculty of Medicine, Osaka, Japan
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Zhu Y, Zou H, Guo Y, Luo P, Meng X, Li D, Xiang Y, Mao B, Pan L, Kan R, He Y, Li W, Liu Z, Yang Y, Xie J, Zhang B, Zhou X, Hu S, Yu X. Associations between metabolic score for visceral fat and the risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality among populations with different glucose tolerance statuses. Diabetes Res Clin Pract 2023; 203:110842. [PMID: 37495020 DOI: 10.1016/j.diabres.2023.110842] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/04/2023] [Revised: 07/15/2023] [Accepted: 07/24/2023] [Indexed: 07/28/2023]
Abstract
AIMS To investigate the associations between metabolic score for visceral fat (METS-VF) and clinical outcomes among populations with different glucose tolerance statuses. METHODS We analysed 6827 participants aged ≥ 40 years with different glucose tolerance statuses from a cohort study. The associations between METS-VF and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and all-cause mortality were assessed using Cox regression, restricted cubic spline and receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS During a follow-up of 5.00 years, there were 338 CVD events and 307 subjects experienced all-cause death. The METS-VF quartile (Quartile 4 versus 1) was significantly related to CVD events [adjusted HRs and 95% CIs: 5.75 (2.67-12.42), 2.80 (1.76-4.48), and 3.31 (1.28-8.54) for subjects with normal glucose tolerance, prediabetes and diabetes, respectively] and all-cause mortality [adjusted HRs and 95% CIs: 2.80 (1.43-5.49), 4.15 (2.45-7.01), and 4.03 (1.72-9.42), respectively]. Restricted cubic spline suggested a dose-response association of METS-VF with the risk of CVD events and all-cause mortality. The area under curve for CVD events and all-cause mortality was higher for METS-VF than for the other obesity and IR indexes in subjects with different glucose tolerance statuses. CONCLUSIONS The METS-VF was associated with an increased risk of CVD events and all-cause mortality and could be used as a predictive index of the risk of CVD events and all-cause mortality among populations with different glucose tolerance statuses.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yurong Zhu
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China
| | - Huajie Zou
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China; Division of Endocrinology, Department of Internal Medicine, The Affiliated Hospital of Qinghai University, Xining 810001, China
| | - Yaming Guo
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China
| | - Peiqiong Luo
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China
| | - Xiaoyu Meng
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China
| | - Danpei Li
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China
| | - Yuxi Xiang
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China
| | - Beibei Mao
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China
| | - Limeng Pan
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China
| | - Ranran Kan
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China
| | - Yi He
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China
| | - Wenjun Li
- Computer Center, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China
| | - Zhelong Liu
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China; Branch of National Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Wuhan 430030, China
| | - Yan Yang
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China; Branch of National Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Wuhan 430030, China
| | - Junhui Xie
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China; Branch of National Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Wuhan 430030, China
| | - Benping Zhang
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China; Branch of National Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Wuhan 430030, China
| | - Xinrong Zhou
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China; Branch of National Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Wuhan 430030, China
| | - Shuhong Hu
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China; Branch of National Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Wuhan 430030, China
| | - Xuefeng Yu
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China; Branch of National Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Wuhan 430030, China.
| |
Collapse
|