Lung cancer mortality in Spain: estimating the future burden to the year 2028

Projections of Lung Cancer Incidence by 2035 in 40 Countries Worldwide: Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

The global burden of lung cancer (LC) is increasing. Quantitative projections of the future LC burden in different world regions could help optimize the allocation of resources and provide a benchmark for evaluating LC prevention and control interventions.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to predict the future incidence of LC in 40 countries by 2035, with an emphasis on country- and sex-specific disparities.

METHODS

Data on LC incidence from 1978 to 2012 were extracted from 126 cancer registries of 40 countries in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes V-XI and used for the projection. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years and the number of incident cases were predicted through 2035, using the NORDPRED age-period-cohort model.

RESULTS

Global ASRs of the 40 studied countries were predicted to decrease by 23% (8.2/35.8) among males, from 35.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2010 to 27.6 in 2035, and increase by 2% (0.3/16.8) among females, from 16.8 in 2010 to 17.1 in 2035. The ASRs of LC among females are projected to continue increasing dramatically in most countries by 2035, with peaks after the 2020s in most European, Eastern Asian, and Oceanian countries, whereas the ASRs among males will continue to decline in almost all countries. The ASRs among females are predicted to almost reach those among males in Ireland, Norway, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Canada, the United States, and New Zealand in 2025 and in Slovenia in 2035 and even surpass those among males in Denmark in 2020 and in Brazil and Colombia in 2025. In 2035, the highest ASRs are projected to occur among males in Belarus (49.3) and among females in Denmark (36.8). The number of new cases in 40 countries is predicted to increase by 65.32% (858,000/1,314,000), from 1.31 million in 2010 to 2.17 million in 2035. China will have the largest number of new cases.

CONCLUSIONS

LC incidence is expected to continue to increase through 2035 in most countries, making LC a major public health challenge worldwide. The ongoing transition in the epidemiology of LC highlights the need for resource redistribution and improved LC control measures to reduce future LC burden worldwide.

The Beginning of the Trend Change in Lung Cancer Mortality Trends in Spain, 1980-2018

BACKGROUND

Recently, some countries have shown stable trends in lung cancer death rates among women not yet described for Spain. We propose to update lung cancer mortality rates in Spain during the period of 1980-2018 by sex and region.

METHODS

We used lung cancer mortality (International Classification of Diseases code 162 for the 9th edition, and codes C33 and C34 for 10th edition) and population data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute for the period 1980-2018. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs), all ages and 30-64 years, by region and sex were assessed through joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

During the study period lung cancer ASMRs (all ages) in men decreased -0.4% per annum and increased by 3.1% in women. Recently, ASMR (30-64 years) accelerated its decrease (1992-2007; -0.7 and 2007-2018; -3.5%) in men and slowed its increase (1990-2012; 5.7% and 2012-2018; 1.4%) in women. In men, joinpoint analysis detected an initial period in all Autonomous Communities (ACs) in which the rates significantly increased, followed by a second period in which the rates decreased significantly (12 ACs) or remained stable (4 ACs) since the late 1980s or early 1990s. In women, upward trends in ASMRs (all ages) were observed for the whole period in all the ACs. In 13 ACs, an initial period was detected with joinpoint in which the rates remained stable or significantly decreased, followed by a second period in which the rates increased significantly since the late 1980s or early 1990s.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows gender differences in lung cancer mortality trends in Spain. These differences may be explained by the increased use of tobacco among women and the decreased use among men.

Statistical projection methods for lung cancer incidence and mortality: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

To identify and summarise all studies using statistical methods to project lung cancer incidence or mortality rates more than 5 years into the future.

STUDY TYPE

Systematic review.

METHODS

We performed a systematic literature search in multiple electronic databases to identify studies published from 1 January 1988 to 14 August 2018, which used statistical methods to project lung cancer incidence and/or mortality rates. Reference lists of relevant articles were checked for additional potentially relevant articles. We developed an organisational framework to classify methods into groups according to the type of data and the statistical models used. Included studies were critically appraised using prespecified criteria.

RESULTS

One hundred and one studies met the inclusion criteria; six studies used more than one statistical method. The number of studies reporting statistical projections for lung cancer increased substantially over time. Eighty-eight studies used projection methods, which did not incorporate data on smoking in the population, and 16 studies used a method which did incorporate data on smoking. Age-period-cohort models (44 studies) were the most commonly used methods, followed by other generalised linear models (35 studies). The majority of models were developed using observed rates for more than 10 years and used data that were considered to be good quality. A quarter of studies provided comparisons of fitted and observed rates. While validation by withholding the most recent observed data from the model and then comparing the projected and observed rates for the most recent period provides important information on the model's performance, only 12 studies reported doing this.

CONCLUSION

This systematic review provides an up-to-date summary of the statistical methods used in published lung cancer incidence or mortality projections. The assessment of the strengths of existing methods will help researchers to better apply and develop statistical methods for projecting lung cancer rates. Some of the common methods described in this review can be applied to the projection of rates for other cancer types or other non-infectious diseases.

Trends in Lung Cancer Incidence in a Healthcare Area

The aim of this study was to identify trends in the incidence of lung cancer in the Leon Healthcare Area. All cases of cancer among residents of the Leon healthcare catchment area listed in the hospital-based tumor registry of the Centro Asistencial Universitario de Leon (CAULE) between 1996 and 2010 were included. Gross incidence rates over 3-year intervals were calculated and adjusted for the worldwide and European populations. A total of 2,491 cases were included. In men, incidence adjusted for the European population rose from 40.1 new cases per 100,000 population (1996-1998) to 61.8 (2005-2007), and then fell to 54.6 (2008-2010). In women, incidence tripled from 3.0 (1996-1998) to 9.2 new cases per 100,000 (2008-2010). Although lung cancer is an avoidable disease, it is a serious problem in the Leon Healthcare Area. Of particular concern is the rising incidence among women.

The lung cancer epidemic in Spanish women: an analysis of mortality rates over a 37-year period

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer continues to be the leading cause of cancer-related mortality in the European Union (EU) and deaths from lung cancer have been projected to escalate to epidemic proportions amongst females over the next years. We examined lung cancer mortality rates in men and women from Andalusia (Spain) over a 37-year period [1975-2012].

METHODS

Longitudinal epidemiological study analyzing lung cancer mortality trends in males and females. Data on lung cancer mortality in Andalusia for the period 1975-2012 were obtained from the official cause-of-death publications of the Institute of Statistics of Andalusia. For each sex, age-standardized (European standard population) mortality rates (ASR) from lung cancer were calculated for all ages and truncated at 30-64, 65-74, and >75 years using the direct method. Standardized rate trends by age and sex were estimated by joinpoint regression analysis.

RESULTS

In men, the ASR steadily increased through the period 1993-1995, reaching a peak of 145.72 deaths/100,000 people. Subsequently, lung cancer deaths decreased to a rate of 125.47 in the 2011-2012 period. A moderate increase was seen in women until the late 1990s and early 2000s. Thereafter, a very notable rise was observed in females for all age groups, the only exception being older subjects. The sex differences decreased from 8.6:1 in the 1975-1977 period to 6.8:1 in the 2011-2012 period.

CONCLUSIONS

Lung cancer mortality rates decreased significantly in Andalusian men from 1975 to 2012. More importantly, we demonstrate for the first time the beginning of the lung cancer epidemics in Andalusian women as previously predicted for this area.