Bayesian adaptive randomization in a clinical trial to identify new regimens for MDR-TB: the endTB trial

Treatment-shortening regimens for tuberculosis: updates and future priorities

In the past 2 years, remarkable advances have been made in shortening tuberculosis (TB) treatment. In particular, four clinical trials (Study 31/A5349, Nix-TB, ZeNix and TB-PRACTECAL) have provided evidence of the efficacy of regimens based on new and repurposed drugs: the 4-month regimen for drug-susceptible TB, and the 6-month bedaquiline-pretomanid-linezolid regimen with or without moxifloxacin for multidrug-resistant/rifampicin-resistant TB. Even if the evidence at the basis of these new regimens is compelling, several questions remain open, particularly concerning linezolid dose finding, the upsurging threat of bedaquiline-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis and the feasibility of applying these results to the paediatric population. Several ongoing trials may fill the remaining gaps and produce further reliable evidence to address the outstanding questions in TB treatment shortening.

A comparison of clinical development pathways to advance tuberculosis regimen development

BACKGROUND

Current tuberculosis (TB) regimen development pathways are slow and in urgent need of innovation. We investigated novel phase IIc and seamless phase II/III trials utilizing multi-arm multi-stage and Bayesian response adaptive randomization trial designs to select promising combination regimens in a platform adaptive trial.

METHODS

Clinical trial simulation tools were built using predictive and validated parametric survival models of time to culture conversion (intermediate endpoint) and time to TB-related unfavorable outcome (final endpoint). This integrative clinical trial simulation tool was used to explore and optimize design parameters for aforementioned trial designs.

RESULTS

Both multi-arm multi-stage and Bayesian response adaptive randomization designs were able to reliably graduate desirable regimens in ≥ 95% of trial simulations and reliably stop suboptimal regimens in ≥ 90% of trial simulations. Overall, adaptive phase IIc designs reduced patient enrollment by 17% and 25% with multi-arm multi-stage and Bayesian response adaptive randomization designs respectively compared to the conventional sequential approach, while seamless designs reduced study duration by 2.6 and 3.5 years respectively (typically ≥ 8.5 years for standard sequential approach).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we demonstrate that adaptive trial designs are suitable for TB regimen development, and we provide plausible design parameters for a platform adaptive trial. Ultimately trial design and specification of design parameters will depend on clinical trial objectives. To support decision-making for clinical trial designs in contemporary TB regimen development, we provide a flexible clinical trial simulation tool that can be used to explore and optimize design features and parameters.

Evaluating newly approved drugs for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (endTB): study protocol for an adaptive, multi-country randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Treatment of multidrug- and rifampin-resistant tuberculosis (MDR/RR-TB) is expensive, labour-intensive, and associated with substantial adverse events and poor outcomes. While most MDR/RR-TB patients do not receive treatment, many who do are treated for 18 months or more. A shorter all-oral regimen is currently recommended for only a sub-set of MDR/RR-TB. Its use is only conditionally recommended because of very low-quality evidence underpinning the recommendation. Novel combinations of newer and repurposed drugs bring hope in the fight against MDR/RR-TB, but their use has not been optimized in all-oral, shorter regimens. This has greatly limited their impact on the burden of disease. There is, therefore, dire need for high-quality evidence on the performance of new, shortened, injectable-sparing regimens for MDR-TB which can be adapted to individual patients and different settings.

METHODS

endTB is a phase III, pragmatic, multi-country, adaptive, randomized, controlled, parallel, open-label clinical trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of shorter treatment regimens containing new drugs for patients with fluoroquinolone-susceptible, rifampin-resistant tuberculosis. Study participants are randomized to either the control arm, based on the current standard of care for MDR/RR-TB, or to one of five 39-week multi-drug regimens containing newly approved and repurposed drugs. Study participation in all arms lasts at least 73 and up to 104 weeks post-randomization. Randomization is response-adapted using interim Bayesian analysis of efficacy endpoints. The primary objective is to assess whether the efficacy of experimental regimens at 73 weeks is non-inferior to that of the control. A sample size of 750 patients across 6 arms affords at least 80% power to detect the non-inferiority of at least 1 (and up to 3) experimental regimens, with a one-sided alpha of 0.025 and a non-inferiority margin of 12%, against the control in both modified intention-to-treat and per protocol populations.

DISCUSSION

The lack of a safe and effective regimen that can be used in all patients is a major obstacle to delivering appropriate treatment to all patients with active MDR/RR-TB. Identifying multiple shorter, safe, and effective regimens has the potential to greatly reduce the burden of this deadly disease worldwide.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT02754765. Registered on 28 April 2016; the record was last updated for study protocol version 3.3, on 27 August 2019.

Evaluating Bayesian adaptive randomization procedures with adaptive clip methods for multi-arm trials

Bayesian adaptive randomization is a heuristic approach that aims to randomize more patients to the putatively superior arms based on the trend of the accrued data in a trial. Many statistical aspects of this approach have been explored and compared with other approaches; yet only a limited number of works has focused on improving its performance and providing guidance on its application to real trials. An undesirable property of this approach is that the procedure would randomize patients to an inferior arm in some circumstances, which has raised concerns in its application. Here, we propose an adaptive clip method to rectify the problem by incorporating a data-driven function to be used in conjunction with Bayesian adaptive randomization procedure. This function aims to minimize the chance of assigning patients to inferior arms during the early time of the trial. Moreover, we propose a utility approach to facilitate the selection of a randomization procedure. A cost that reflects the penalty of assigning patients to the inferior arm(s) in the trial is incorporated into our utility function along with all patients benefited from the trial, both within and beyond the trial. We illustrate the selection strategy for a wide range of scenarios.

The endTB observational study protocol: treatment of MDR-TB with bedaquiline or delamanid containing regimens

Background

At a time when programs were struggling to design effective regimens for the treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), the marketing authorization of bedaquiline and delamanid was a critical development in the MDR-TB treatment landscape. However, despite their availability for routine programmatic use, the uptake of these drugs has remained slow; concerns included a lack of evidence on safety and efficacy and the need to protect the new drugs from the development of acquired resistance. As part of the endTB Project, we aimed to address these barriers by generating evidence on safety and efficacy of bedaquiline or delamanid based MDR-TB regimens.

Methods

This is a protocol for a multi-center prospective cohort study to enroll 2600 patients from April 2015 through September 2018 in 17 countries. The protocol describes inclusion of patients started on treatment with bedaquiline- or delamanid- containing regimens under routine care, who consented to participate in the endTB observational study. Patient follow-up was according to routine monitoring schedules recommended for patients receiving bedaquiline or delamanid as implemented at each endTB site. Therefore, no additional tests were performed as a part of the study. Data were to be collected in a customized, open-source electronic medical record (EMR) system developed as a part of the endTB Project across all 17 countries.

Discussion

The endTB observational study will generate evidence on safety and efficacy of bedaquiline- and delamanid-containing regimens in a large, extremely heterogeneous group of MDR-TB patients, from 17 epidemiologically diverse countries. The systematic, prospective data collection of repeated effectiveness and safety measures, and analyses performed on these data, will improve the quality of evidence available to inform MDR-TB treatment and policy decisions. Further, the resources available to countries through implementation of the endTB project will have permitted countries to: gain experience with the use of these drugs in MDR-TB regimens, improve local capacity to record and report adverse events (pharmacovigilance), and enhance significantly the body of data available for safety evaluation of these drugs and other novel treatments.

Trial registration

This study was registered on 24 August 2017 at clincaltrials.gov (Registration number: NCT03259269).

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-4378-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.