Declining tuberculosis case notification rates with the scale-up of antiretroviral therapy in Zimbabwe

Declining Trends in Childhood TB Notifications and Profile of Notified Patients in the City of Harare, Zimbabwe, from 2009 to 2018

Globally, childhood tuberculosis (TB among those aged <15 years) is a neglected component of national TB programmes in high TB burden countries. Zimbabwe, a country in southern Africa, is a high burden country for TB, TB-HIV, and drug-resistant TB. In this study, we assessed trends in annual childhood TB notifications in Harare (the capital of Zimbabwe) from 2009 to 2018 and the demographic, clinical profiles, and treatment outcomes of childhood TB patients notified from 2015–2017 by reviewing the national TB programme records and reports. Overall, there was a decline in the total number of TB patients (all ages) from 5,943 in 2009 to 2,831 in 2018. However, the number of childhood TB patients had declined exponentially 6-fold from 583 patients (117 per 100,000 children) in 2009 to 107 patients (18 per 100,000 children) in 2018. Of the 615 childhood TB patients notified between 2015 and 2017, 556 (89%) patient records were available. There were 53% males, 61% were aged <5 years, 92% were new TB patients, 85% had pulmonary TB, and 89% were treated for-drug sensitive TB, 3% for drug-resistant TB, and 40% were HIV positive (of whom 59% were on ART). Although 58% had successful treatment outcomes, the treatment outcomes of 40% were unknown (not recorded or not evaluated), indicating severe gaps in TB care. The disproportionate decline in childhood TB notifications could be due to the reduction in the TB burden among HIV positive individuals from the scale up of antiretroviral therapy and isoniazid preventive therapy. However, the country is experiencing economic challenges which could also contribute to the disproportionate decline in childhood TB notification and gaps in quality of care. There is an urgent need to understand the reasons for the declining trends and the gaps in care.

Trend analysis of tuberculosis case notifications with scale-up of antiretroviral therapy and roll-out of isoniazid preventive therapy in Zimbabwe, 2000-2018

OBJECTIVES

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) and isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) are known to have a tuberculosis (TB) protective effect at the individual level among people living with HIV (PLHIV). In Zimbabwe where TB is driven by HIV infection, we have assessed whether there is a population-level association between IPT and ART scale-up and annual TB case notification rates (CNRs) from 2000 to 2018.

DESIGN

Ecological study using aggregate national data.

SETTING

Annual aggregate national data on TB case notification rates (stratified by TB category and type of disease), numbers (and proportions) of PLHIV in ART care and of these, numbers (and proportions) ever commenced on IPT.

RESULTS

ART coverage in the public sector increased from <1% (8400 PLHIV) in 2004 to ~88% (>1.1 million PLHIV patients) by December 2018, while IPT coverage among PLHIV in ART care increased from <1% (98 PLHIV) in 2012 to ~33% (373 917 PLHIV) by December 2018. These HIV-related interventions were associated with significant declines in TB CNRs: between the highest CNR prior to national roll-out of ART (in 2004) to the lowest recorded CNR after national IPT roll-out from 2012, these were (1) for all TB case (510 to 173 cases/100 000 population; 66% decline, p<0.001); (2) for those with new TB (501 to 159 cases/100 000 population; 68% decline, p<0.001) and (3) for those with new clinically diagnosed PTB (284 to 63 cases/100 000 population; 77.8% decline, p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows the population-level impact of the continued scale-up of ART among PLHIV and the national roll-out of IPT among those in ART care in reducing TB, particularly clinically diagnosed TB which is largely associated with HIV. There are further opportunities for continued mitigation of TB with increasing coverage of ART and in particular IPT which still has a low coverage.

Decreased risk of HIV-associated TB during antiretroviral therapy expansion in rural Eswatini from 2009 to 2016: a cohort and population-based analysis

Objectives

This paper assesses patient‐ and population‐level trends in TB notifications during rapid expansion of antiretroviral therapy in Eswatini which has an extremely high incidence of both TB and HIV.

Methods

Patient‐ and population‐level predictors and rates of HIV‐associated TB were examined in the Shiselweni region in Eswatini from 2009 to 2016. Annual population‐level denominators obtained from projected census data and prevalence estimates obtained from population‐based surveys were combined with individual‐level TB treatment data. Patient‐ and population‐level predictors of HIV‐associated TB were assessed with multivariate logistic and multivariate negative binomial regression models.

Results

Of 11 328 TB cases, 71.4% were HIV co‐infected and 51.8% were women. TB notifications decreased fivefold between 2009 and 2016, from 1341 to 269 cases per 100 000 person‐years. The decline was sixfold in PLHIV vs. threefold in the HIV‐negative population. Main patient‐level predictors of HIV‐associated TB were recurrent TB treatment (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.40, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19–1.65), negative (aOR 1.31, 1.15–1.49) and missing (aOR 1.30, 1.11–1.53) bacteriological status and diagnosis at secondary healthcare level (aOR 1.18, 1.06–1.33). Compared with 2009, the probability of TB decreased for all years from 2011 (aOR 0.69, 0.58–0.83) to 2016 (aOR 0.54, 0.43–0.69). The most pronounced population‐level predictor of TB was HIV‐positive status (adjusted incidence risk ratio 19.47, 14.89–25.46).

Conclusions

This high HIV‐TB prevalence setting experienced a rapid decline in TB notifications, most pronounced in PLHIV. Achievements in HIV‐TB programming were likely contributing factors.

Space-time clustering of recently-diagnosed tuberculosis and impact of ART scale-up: Evidence from an HIV hyper-endemic rural South African population

In HIV hyperendemic sub-Saharan African communities, particularly in southern Africa, the likelihood of achieving the Sustainable Development Goal of ending the tuberculosis (TB) epidemic by 2030 is low, due to lack of cost-effective and practical interventions in population settings. We used one of Africa’s largest population-based prospective cohorts from rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, to measure the spatial variations in the prevalence of recently-diagnosed TB disease, and to quantify the impact of community coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on recently-diagnosed TB disease. We collected data on TB disease episodes from a population-based sample of 41,812 adult individuals between 2009 and 2015. Spatial clusters (‘hotspots’) of recently-diagnosed TB were identified using a space-time scan statistic. Multilevel logistic regression models were fitted to investigate the relationship between community ART coverage and recently-diagnosed TB. Spatial clusters of recently-diagnosed TB were identified in a region characterized by a high prevalence of HIV and population movement. Every percentage increase in ART coverage was associated with a 2% decrease in the odds of recently-diagnosed TB (aOR = 0.98, 95% CI:0.97–0.99). We identified for the first time the clear occurrence of recently-diagnosed TB hotspots, and quantified potential benefit of increased community ART coverage in lowering tuberculosis, highlighting the need to prioritize the expansion of such effective population interventions targeting high-risk areas.

Initiation and completion rates of isoniazid preventive therapy among people living with HIV in Far-Western Region of Nepal: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT), for people living with HIV (PLHIV) is the proven and recommended intervention to avert tuberculosis (TB). In 2015, Nepal implemented 6 months of IPT for all PLHIV registered for HIV care in antiretroviral therapy (ART) centres. After programmatic implementation, there has been no systematic assessment of IPT initiation and completion rates among PLHIV. We aimed to assess IPT initiation and completion rates in the Far-Western Region (FWR) of Nepal.

DESIGN

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using secondary data extracted from registers maintained at ART centres.

SETTING

All 11 ART centres in the FWR of Nepal.

PARTICIPANTS

All PLHIV registered for care between January 2016 and December 2017 in 11 ART centres.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

IPT initiation and completion rates were summarised as percentages with 95% CI. Independent association between patient characteristics and non-initiation of IPT was assessed using cluster-adjusted generalised linear model (log binomial regression) and adjusted relative risk (RR) with 95% CI was calculated.

RESULT

Of the 492 PLHIV included, 477 (97.0%) did not have active TB at registration. Among 477 without active TB, 141 (29.8%, 95% CI 25.7% to 34.1%) had been initiated on IPT and 85 (17.8%) were initiated within 3 months of registration. Of 141 initiated on IPT, 133 (94.3%, 95% CI 89.1% to 97.5%) had completed 6 months of IPT. Being more than 60 years of age (RR-1.3, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.7), migrant worker (RR-1.3, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.4) and not being initiated on ART (RR-1.4, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.8) were significantly associated with IPT initiation.

CONCLUSIONS

In FWR of Nepal, three out of 10 eligible PLHIV had received IPT. Among those who have received IPT, the completion rate was good. The HIV care programme needs to explore the potential reasons for this low coverage and take context specific corrective action to fix this gap.

Drug resistant tuberculosis in Africa: Current status, gaps and opportunities

Background

The World Health Organization End TB Strategy targets for 2035 are ambitious and drug resistant tuberculosis is an important barrier, particularly in Africa, home to over a billion people.

Objective

We sought to review the current status of drug resistant tuberculosis in Africa and highlight key areas requiring improvement.

Methods

Available data from 2016 World Health Organization global tuberculosis database were extracted and analysed using descriptive statistics.

Results

The true burden of drug resistant tuberculosis on the continent is poorly described with only 51% of countries having a formal survey completed. In the absence of this data, modelled estimates were used and reported 92 629 drug resistant tuberculosis cases with 42% of these occurring in just two countries: Nigeria and South Africa. Of the cases estimated, the majority of patients (70%) were not notified, representing ‘missed cases’. Mortality among patients with multi-drug resistant tuberculosis was 21%, and was 43% among those with extensively drug resistant tuberculosis. Policies on the adoption of new diagnostic tools was poor and implementation was lacking. A rifampicin result was available for less than 10% of tuberculosis cases in 23 of 47 countries. Second-line drug resistance testing was available in only 60% of countries. The introduction of the short multi-drug resistant tuberculosis regimen was a welcome development, with 40% of countries having implemented it in 2016. Bedaquiline has also been introduced in several countries.

Conclusion

Drug resistant tuberculosis is largely missed in Africa and this threatens prospects to achieve the 2035 targets. Urgent efforts are required to confirm the true burden of drug resistant tuberculosis in Africa. Adoption of new tools and drugs is essential if the 2035 targets are to be met.

What can National TB Control Programmes in low- and middle-income countries do to end tuberculosis by 2030?

The international community has committed to ending the tuberculosis (TB) epidemic by 2030. This will require multi-sectoral action with a focus on accelerating socio-economic development, developing and implementing new tools, and expanding health insurance coverage. Within this broad framework, National TB Programmes (NTPs) are accountable for delivering diagnostic, treatment, and preventive services. There are large gaps in the delivery of these services, and the aim of this article is to review the crucial activities and interventions that NTPs must implement in order to meet global targets and milestones that will end the TB epidemic. The key deliverables are the following: turn End TB targets and milestones into national measurable indicators to make it easier to track progress; optimize the prompt and accurate diagnosis of all types of TB; provide rapid, complete, and effective treatment to all those diagnosed with TB; implement and monitor effective infection control practices; diagnose and treat drug-resistant TB, associated HIV infection, and diabetes mellitus; design and implement active case finding strategies for high-risk groups and link them to the treatment of latent TB infection; engage with the private-for-profit sector; and empower the Central Unit of the NTP particularly in relation to data-driven supportive supervision, operational research, and sustained financing. The glaring gaps in the delivery of TB services must be remedied, and some of these gaps will require new paradigms and ways of working which include patient-centered and higher-quality services. There must also be fast-track ways of incorporating new diagnostic, treatment, and prevention tools into program activities so as to rapidly reduce TB incidence and mortality and meet the goal of ending TB by 2030.

Characteristics and management of presumptive tuberculosis in public health facilities in Malawi, 2014-2016

Setting: Public health facilities providing tuberculosis (TB) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) services in Malawi. Objectives: Using routinely collected health service delivery data to describe trends in HIV ascertainment and use of the Xpert® MTB/RIF assay to diagnose TB among HIV-positive presumptive TB cases. Design: This was an implementation study of presumptive TB cases who sought care from 21 facilities between April 2014 and June 2016. Descriptive statistics were used to summarise patient, facility and service level characteristics. Results: Of 28 567 presumptive TB cases analysed, 23 198 (81%) had known HIV status. The proportion of ascertained HIV status in presumptive TB cases increased over the study period. HIV prevalence was 49%, with 73% of HIV-positive presumptive TB cases on antiretroviral therapy. Access to Xpert ranged between 37% and 63% per quarter among HIV-positive presumptive TB patients with smear-negative sputum results. Of 7829 patients with documented Xpert results, 68% were HIV-positive. Conclusion: After the introduction of registers with HIV-related variables, HIV ascertainment among presumptive TB cases increased over time. Access to Xpert was suboptimal among HIV-positive presumptive TB cases. Further collaboration between national TB and HIV programmes may facilitate increased use of Xpert for HIV-positive patients with presumptive TB who seek care in public health facilities.

The impact of implementing a Xpert MTB/RIF algorithm on drug-sensitive pulmonary tuberculosis: a retrospective analysis

Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) is the preferred first-line test for all persons with tuberculosis (TB) symptoms in South Africa in line with a diagnostic algorithm. This study evaluates pre- and post-implementation trends in diagnostic practices for drug-sensitive, pulmonary TB in adults in an operational setting, following the introduction of the Xpert-based algorithm. We retrospectively analysed data from the national TB database for Greater Tzaneen sub-district, Limpopo Province. Trends in a number of cases, diagnosis and outcome and characteristics associated with death are reported. A total of 8407 cases were treated from 2008 until 2015, with annual cases registered decreasing by 31·7% over that time period (from 1251 to 855 per year). After implementation of Xpert, 69·9% of cases were diagnosed by Xpert, 29·4% clinically, 0·6% by smear microscopy and 0·1% by culture. Cases with a recorded microbiological test increased from 76·2% to 96·4%. Cases started on treatment without confirmation, but with a negative microbiological test increased from 7·1% to 25·7%. Case fatality decreased from 15·0% to 9·8%, remaining consistently higher in empirically treated groups, regardless of HIV status. Implementation of the algorithm coincided with a reduced number of TB cases treated and improved coverage of microbiological testing; however, a substantial proportion of cases continued to start treatment empirically.