Economic burden of frailty in older adults accessing community-based aged care services in Australia

AIM

To explore the utilization of permanent residential aged care (PRAC), healthcare costs, and mortality for frail compared with non-frail individuals following their first assessment by an aged care assessment team (ACAT) for a government-funded home care package.

METHODS

The study involved people aged 65 years and over who completed their first ACAT assessment in 2013 and were followed for up to 36 months. Frail and non-frail study participants were matched through caliper matching without replacement to adjust for potential unobserved confounders. Poisson regression estimated the impact of frailty on PRAC admission and mortality rates. Healthcare costs, encompassing hospital admissions, emergency department presentations, primary care consultations, and pharmaceutical use, from ACAT assessment to end of follow-up, PRAC entry or death were summarized monthly by frailty status.

RESULTS

13 315 non-frail controls were matched with up to three frail individuals (52 678 total). Frail individuals experienced higher mortality (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.76; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.70-1.83) and greater likelihood of entering PRAC (IRR = 1.73; 95% CI 1.67-1.79) compared with non-frail individuals. Total healthcare costs over the 3-year post-assessment period for 39 363 frail individuals were $1 277 659 900, compared with expected costs of $885 322 522 had they not been frail. The primary contributor to the mean monthly excess cost per frail individual (mean = $457, SD = 3192) was hospital admissions ($345; 75%).

CONCLUSIONS

Frailty is associated with higher rates of mortality and of entering PRAC, and excess costs of frailty are substantial and sustained over time. These findings emphasize the potential economic value of providing home care for older people before they become frail. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2024; ••: ••-••.

Understanding the important characteristics of neighbourhoods to facilitate ageing in place and longevity

OBJECTIVES

This study investigates which local area characteristics, included in the Healthy Ageing/Vulnerable ENvironment (HAVEN) Index, are the strongest factors predicting transition into permanent residential aged care (PRAC) and mortality, and the geographic distribution of these factors.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of older individuals living in the community in Adelaide who received their first eligibility assessment for age care services between 2013 and 2015 (n = 16,939) was conducted. The study cohort, from the Registry of Senior Australians (ROSA), was linked by postcode to HAVEN Index items, selected following item response theory (IRT) analysis to determine the strongest local area factors associated with PRAC and mortality. Geospatial mapping of the factors determined the geographic distribution of these significant factors.

RESULTS

Fourteen HAVEN Index items were associated with entry into PRAC and mortality. Three area-level items, lower educational attainment, financial housing stress and low levels of volunteering by older people, were risk factors for entry into PRAC and mortality while the remainder of the items identified were different for each outcome. The mapped local area risk factors for each outcome highlighted similar geographical areas of vulnerability.

CONCLUSIONS

Local area characteristics are associated with entering PRAC and mortality. Our findings can inform area-level responses to make neighbourhoods more age-friendly, potentially allowing more people to age longer in place. Similar analyses, conducted for other areas, could provide evidence to support the widespread development of age-friendly neighbourhoods reducing area-level inequalities in ageing.

Predictors of mortality shortly after entering a long-term care facility

OBJECTIVE

Moving into a long-term care facility (LTCF) requires substantial personal, societal and financial investment. Identifying those at high risk of short-term mortality after LTCF entry can help with care planning and risk factor management. This study aimed to: (i) examine individual-, facility-, medication-, system- and healthcare-related predictors for 90-day mortality at entry into an LTCF and (ii) create risk profiles for this outcome.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study using data from the Registry of Senior Australians.

SUBJECTS

Individuals aged ≥ 65 years old with first-time permanent entry into an LTCF in three Australian states between 01 January 2013 and 31 December 2016.

METHODS

A prediction model for 90-day mortality was developed using Cox regression with the purposeful variable selection approach. Individual-, medication-, system- and healthcare-related factors known at entry into an LTCF were examined as predictors. Harrell's C-index assessed the predictive ability of our risk models.

RESULTS

116,192 individuals who entered 1,967 facilities, of which 9.4% (N = 10,910) died within 90 days, were studied. We identified 51 predictors of mortality, five of which were effect modifiers. The strongest predictors included activities of daily living category (hazard ratio [HR] = 5.41, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.99-5.88 for high vs low), high level of complex health conditions (HR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.58-1.77 for high vs low), several medication classes and male sex (HR = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.53-1.65). The model out-of-sample Harrell's C-index was 0.773.

CONCLUSIONS

Our mortality prediction model, which includes several strongly associated factors, can moderately well identify individuals at high risk of mortality upon LTCF entry.

The risk of fractures after entering long-term care facilities

BACKGROUND

Stratifying residents at increased risk for fractures in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) can potentially improve awareness and facilitate the delivery of targeted interventions to reduce risk. Although several fracture risk assessment tools exist, most are not suitable for individuals entering LTCF. Moreover, existing tools do not examine risk profiles of individuals at key periods in their aged care journey, specifically at entry into LTCFs.

PURPOSE

Our objectives were to identify fracture predictors, develop a fracture risk prognostic model for new LTCF residents and compare its performance to the Fracture Risk Assessment in Long term care (FRAiL) model using the Registry of Senior Australians (ROSA) Historical National Cohort, which contains integrated health and aged care information for individuals receiving long term care services.

METHODS

Individuals aged ≥65 years old who entered 2079 facilities in three Australian states between 01/01/2009 and 31/12/2016 were examined. Fractures (any) within 365 days of LTCF entry were the outcome of interest. Individual, medication, health care, facility and system-related factors were examined as predictors. A fracture prognostic model was developed using elastic nets penalised regression and Fine-Gray models. Model discrimination was examined using area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) from the 20 % testing dataset. Model performance was compared to an existing risk model (i.e., FRAiL model).

RESULTS

Of the 238,782 individuals studied, 62.3 % (N = 148,838) were women, 49.7 % (N = 118,598) had dementia and the median age was 84 (interquartile range 79-89). Within 365 days of LTCF entry, 7.2 % (N = 17,110) of individuals experienced a fracture. The strongest fracture predictors included: complex health care rating (no vs high care needs, sub-distribution hazard ratio (sHR) = 1.52, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.39-1.67), nutrition rating (moderate vs worst, sHR = 1.48, 95%CI 1.38-1.59), prior fractures (sHR ranging from 1.24 to 1.41 depending on fracture site/type), one year history of general practitioner attendances (≥16 attendances vs none, sHR = 1.35, 95%CI 1.18-1.54), use of dopa and dopa derivative antiparkinsonian medications (sHR = 1.28, 95%CI 1.19-1.38), history of osteoporosis (sHR = 1.22, 95%CI 1.16-1.27), dementia (sHR = 1.22, 95%CI 1.17-1.28) and falls (sHR = 1.21, 95%CI 1.17-1.25). The model AUC in the testing cohort was 0.62 (95%CI 0.61-0.63) and performed similar to the FRAiL model (AUC = 0.61, 95%CI 0.60-0.62).

CONCLUSIONS

Critical information captured during transition into LTCF can be effectively leveraged to inform fracture risk profiling. New fracture predictors including complex health care needs, recent emergency department encounters, general practitioner and consultant physician attendances, were identified.

Death by suicide among aged care recipients in Australia 2008-2017

OBJECTIVE

To characterize the features of aged care users who died by suicide and examine the use of mental health services and psychopharmacotherapy in the year before death.

DESIGN

Population-based, retrospective exploratory study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Individuals who died while accessing or waiting for permanent residential aged care (PRAC) or home care packages in Australia between 2008 and 2017.

MEASUREMENTS

Linked datasets describing aged care use, date and cause of death, health care use, medication use, and state-based hospital data collections.

RESULTS

Of 532,507 people who died, 354 (0.07%) died by suicide, including 81 receiving a home care package (0.17% of all home care package deaths), 129 in PRAC (0.03% of all deaths in PRAC), and 144 approved for but awaiting care (0.23% of all deaths while awaiting care). Factors associated with death by suicide compared to death by another cause were male sex, having a mental health condition, not having dementia, less frailty, and a hospitalization for self-injury in the year before death. Among those who were awaiting care, being born outside Australia, living alone, and not having a carer were associated with death by suicide. Those who died by suicide more often accessed Government-subsidized mental health services in the year before their death than those who died by another cause.

CONCLUSIONS

Older men, those with diagnosed mental health conditions, those living alone and without an informal carer, and those hospitalized for self-injury are key targets for suicide prevention efforts.

Factors associated with entry to residential care in frail older inpatients

OBJECTIVE

To examine factors that may influence the risk of discharge to a residential aged care facility (RACF) in a population of frail older inpatients.

METHODS

We analysed data from 5846 inpatients aged over 60 years from 27 hospitals in Queensland, Australia, admitted from independent living and referred for geriatric consultation. Patients underwent an interRAI Acute Care Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment by trained nurses. Frailty was assessed using a 52-item frailty index (FI). Risk/protective factors were determined a priori. Logistic regression assessed the relationship between factors and discharge destination, adjusted for FI, age, sex and hospital. Frailty × risk/protective factor interactions were performed.

RESULTS

Patients had a mean (SD) age of 79.7 (8.2) years and a mean (SD) FI of 0.44 (0.14). Twenty-nine per cent (n = 1678) of patients were discharged to an RACF. Each 0.1 increment in FI increased the risk of discharge to an RACF by 54% (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.40-1.68, p < 0.01). Being married or in a de facto relationship had protective effects up to an FI of 0.7, whereas behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia (BPSD) increased the risk of RACF discharge up to an FI of 0.7. Female sex, faecal incontinence and living alone did not influence the relationship between frailty and discharge destination.

CONCLUSIONS

The association between frailty and discharge to RACF has previously been recognised but here we found that risk and protective factors can influence this association. Whether early identification and management of mutable factors can reduce discharge to RACF should be addressed in future studies.

Putting Guidelines Into Practice: Is Frailty Measurement at the Time of Kidney Transplant Eligibility Assessment Valid, Feasible, and Acceptable to Patients?

Background

Clinical Practice Guidelines suggest that frailty be measured during kidney transplant eligibility assessments. Yet it is not known how frailty is best assessed in this setting or whether its assessment is acceptable to patients. We aimed to examine the construct validity and feasibility of Frailty Index (FI) assessment among patients attending a kidney transplant assessment clinic and to explore patients' perspectives on frailty and the acceptability of its routine assessment.

Methods

A 58-item FI was calculated for 147 clinic patients. Semistructured interviews were conducted with a subgroup of 29 patients. The FI was validated against normative FI characteristics (mean, distribution, limit), age, and the Estimated Post-Transplant Survival Score. Feasibility was assessed using descriptive statistics. Qualitative data were analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis.

Results

The mean FI was 0.23 (±0.10, normal distribution, limit 0.53). FI increased with age and Estimated Post-Transplant Survival score. The FI was completed for 62.8% of eligible patients (147/234). The median completion time was 10 min, and completion rate (with no missing data) was 100%. Four themes were identified: perceptions of frailty, acceptability, perceived benefits, and risks of frailty measurement. Patients linked frailty with age and adverse outcomes, and most did not consider themselves frail. Patients reported that the FI was quick, simple, and efficient. They felt that frailty assessment is relevant to transplant eligibility and should be used to address potentially reversible factors.

Conclusions

The FI demonstrated construct validity and was feasible and acceptable in this clinic setting. The challenge is ensuring that routine assessments lead to better care.

Development of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Risk of Hospitalization With Pressure Injury After Entering Residential Aged Care

OBJECTIVES

Although largely preventable, pressure injury is a major concern in individuals in permanent residential aged care (PRAC). Our study aimed to identify predictors and develop a prognostic model for risk of hospitalization with pressure injury (PI) using integrated Australian aged and health care data.

DESIGN

National retrospective cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Individuals ≥65 years old (N = 206,540) who entered 1797 PRAC facilities between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2016.

METHODS

PI, ascertained from hospitalization records, within 365 days of PRAC entry was the outcome of interest. Individual, medication, facility, system, and health care-related factors were examined as predictors. Prognostic models were developed using elastic nets penalized regression and Fine and Gray models. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) assessed model discrimination out-of-sample.

RESULTS

Within 365 days of PRAC entry, 4.3% (n = 8802) of individuals had a hospitalization with PI. The strongest predictors for PI risk include history of PIs [sub-distribution hazard ratio (sHR) 2.41; 95% CI 1.77-3.29]; numbers of prior hospitalizations (having ≥5 hospitalizations, sHR 1.95; 95% CI 1.74-2.19); history of traumatic amputation of toe, ankle, foot and leg (sHR 1.72; 95% CI 1.44-2.05); and history of skin disease (sHR 1.54; 95% CI 1.45-1.65). Lower care needs at PRAC entry with respect to mobility, complex health care, and medication assistance were associated with lower risk of PI. The risk prediction model had an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI 0.72-0.75).

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Our prognostic model for risk of hospitalization with PI performed moderately well and can be used by health and aged care providers to implement risk-based prevention plans at PRAC entry.

Development and validation of retrospective electronic frailty index using operational data of aged care homes

Background

Although elderly population is generally frail, it is important to closely monitor their health deterioration to improve the care and support in residential aged care homes (RACs). Currently, the best identification approach is through time-consuming regular geriatric assessments. This study aimed to develop and validate a retrospective electronic frailty index (reFI) to track the health status of people staying at RACs using the daily routine operational data records.

Methods

We have access to patient records from the Royal Freemasons Benevolent Institution RACs (Australia) over the age of 65, spanning 2010 to 2021. The reFI was developed using the cumulative deficit frailty model whose value was calculated as the ratio of number of present frailty deficits to the total possible frailty indicators (32). Frailty categories were defined using population quartiles. 1, 3 and 5-year mortality were used for validation. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier estimate. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using Cox regression analyses and the association was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

Results

Two thousand five hundred eighty-eight residents were assessed, with an average length of stay of 1.2 ± 2.2 years. The RAC cohort was generally frail with an average reFI of 0.21 ± 0.11. According to the Kaplan-Meier estimate, survival varied significantly across different frailty categories (p < 0.01). The estimated hazard ratios (HRs) were 1.12 (95% CI 1.09–1.15), 1.11 (95% CI 1.07–1.14), and 1.1 (95% CI 1.04–1.17) at 1, 3 and 5 years. The ROC analysis of the reFI for mortality outcome showed an area under the curve (AUC) of ≥0.60 for 1, 3 and 5-year mortality.

Conclusion

A novel reFI was developed using the routine data recorded at RACs. reFI can identify changes in the frailty index over time for elderly people, that could potentially help in creating personalised care plans for addressing their health deterioration.

Interaction effects of multimorbidity and frailty on adverse health outcomes in elderly hospitalised patients

We quantified the interaction of multimorbidity and frailty and their impact on adverse health outcomes in the hospital setting. Using aretrospective cohort study of persons aged ≥ 75 years, admitted to hospital during 2010–2012 in New South Wales, Australia, and linked with mortality data, we constructed multimorbidity, frailty risk and outcomes: prolonged length of stay (LOS), 30-day mortality and 30-day unplanned readmissions. Relative risks (RR) of outcomes were obtained using Poisson models with random intercept for hospital. Among 257,535 elderly inpatients, 33.6% had multimorbidity and elevated frailty risk, 14.7% had multimorbidity only, 19.9% had elevated frailty risk only and 31.8% had neither. Additive interactions were present for all outcomes, with a further multiplicative interaction for mortality and LOS. Mortality risk was 4.2 (95% CI 4.1–4.4), prolonged LOS 3.3 (95% CI 3.3–3.4) and readmission 1.8 (95% CI 1.7–1.9) times higher in patients with both factors present compared with patients with neither. In conclusion, multimorbidity and frailty coexist in older hospitalized patients and interact to increase the risk of adverse outcomes beyond the sum of their individual effects. Their joint effect should be considered in health outcomes research and when administering hospital resources.

Government-subsidised mental health services are underused in Australian residential aged care facilities

ObjectiveTo describe patterns of use of the available Government-subsidised mental health services among people living in Australian residential aged care facilities.MethodsA retrospective population-based trend analysis was conducted, including all non-Indigenous people living in an Australian facility between 2012 and 2017. Adjusted incidence proportions and trends were estimated for four groups of mental health services.ResultsThe use of Medicare-subsidised mental health services was very low overall. The proportion of residents who accessed primary care mental health services increased from 1.3% in 2012/2013 to 2.4% in 2016/2017, while psychiatry service use increased from 1.9 to 2.3%. Claims for clinical psychology increased from 0.18 to 0.26%, and claims for a registered psychologist, occupational therapist or social worker rose from 0.45 to 1.2%. People with dementia were less likely than people without dementia to access all services aside from psychiatry services.ConclusionsLess than 3% of residents accessed funding subsidies for mental health services and people with dementia experienced pronounced barriers to service access. Mental health care is a pillar of the publicly-funded health system in Australia, and low use of these services among aged care residents indicates a need for organisational and policy changes to improve access.

Residents' perspectives of mobile X-ray services in support of healthcare-in-place in residential aged care facilities: a qualitative study

Background

Mobile X-ray services (MXS) could be used to investigate clinical issues in aged care residents within familiar surroundings, reducing transfers to and from emergency departments and enabling healthcare to be delivered in residential aged care facilities. There is however little research exploring consumer perspectives about such services. The objective of this research was to explore the perspectives and preferences of residents about the provision of MXS in residential aged care facilities, including their knowledge about the service, perceived benefits, and factors that require consideration for effective implementation.

Methods

A qualitative study design was used. The setting for the study included four residential aged care facilities of different sizes from different parts of a South Australian city. Purposive sampling was used to recruit participants. 16 residents participated in semi-structured interviews that were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Data were inductively derived using thematic analysis.

Results

Participants had a mean age of 85 years, 56% were female, 25% had dementia and 25% had had a mobile X-ray in the last 12 months. Four themes were developed. Participants preferred mobile X-rays, provided as healthcare-in-place, to improve accessibility to them and minimize physical and psychological discomfort. Participants had expectations about the processes for receiving mobile X-rays. Costs of X-rays to people, family and society were a consideration. Decision making required residents be informed about mobile X-rays.

Conclusions

Residents have positive views of MXS as they can receive healthcare-in-place, with familiar people and surroundings. They emphasised that MXS delivered in residential aged care facilities need to be of equivalent quality to those found in other settings. Increased awareness of mobile X-ray services is required.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-03212-2.

Determinants of Higher Mortality at Six Months in Patients with Hip Fracture: A Retrospective Study

(1) Background: Hip fracture is a pathology with high mortality, but the lack of a universal adaptation of the factors associated with death makes it difficult to predict risk and implement prevention in this group. This study aimed to identify the factors that determine a higher mortality at six months following hip fracture. (2) Methods: A retrospective longitudinal study, whose study population consisted of patients over 65 years of age. The main variable was mortality at 6 months of fracture. Relevant data related to sociodemographic and clinical variables for subsequent bivariate (χ²) and multivariate analysis were obtained. (3) Results: In all, 665 people participated in the study, 128 of whom died within 6 months of the fracture. The multivariate adjusted analysis demonstrated significant relationships between the main variable and aspects such as institutionalization at discharge (Odds Ratio (OR) = 2.501), a worse overall functional capacity (OR = 2.453) and cognitive capacity (OR = 3.040) at admission, and complications such as heart failure (OR = 5.767) or respiratory infection (OR = 5.308), in addition to the taking of certain drugs and the presence of a greater number of comorbidities. (4) Conclusions: There are certain factors related to higher mortality at six months in patients with hip fracture who are aged 65 years or older.

A vulnerable residential environment is associated with higher risk of mortality and early transition to permanent residential aged care for community dwelling older South Australians

OBJECTIVES

This study examined the impact of the residential environment, measured by the Healthy Ageing/Vulnerable ENvironment (HAVEN) Index, on risk of mortality or entry into Permanent Residential Aged Care (PRAC).

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study using data from the Registry of Senior Australians (ROSA) was conducted. HAVEN Index values were matched to the ROSA by residential postcode.

STUDY SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Older individuals living in metropolitan Adelaide and receiving their first eligibility assessment for aged care services between 2014 and 2016 (N = 16,944).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Time to death and entry into PRAC were the main outcomes.

RESULTS

A higher HAVEN Index value, which represents a favourable residential environment, was associated with a lower risk of mortality and delayed entry to PRAC. For every 0.1 unit increase in HAVEN Index value, the risk of mortality is 3% lower (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.97, 0.96-0.99) and the risk of entry to PRAC is 5% lower (adjusted subdistribution HR, 95%CI = 0.95, 0.94-0.97) in the first 2 years following aged care assessment. After 2 years, the HAVEN Index was not associated with the risk of transition to PRAC.

CONCLUSION

Place-based health inequalities were identified in Australians seeking aged care services, demonstrating that a better understanding of local neighbourhoods may provide insight into addressing ageing inequalities. Spatial indexes, such as the HAVEN Index, are useful tools to identify areas where populations are more vulnerable to adverse health outcomes, informing responses to prioritise local improvements and health interventions to enable healthy ageing.

Trends in utilisation of plain X-rays by older Australians (2010-2019)

BACKGROUND

Older Australians are major health service users and early diagnosis is key in the management of their health. Radiological services are an important component of diagnosis and disease management planning in older Australians, but their national utilisation of diagnostic services has never been investigated in Australia.

PURPOSE

This study aims to evaluate the utilisation of major plain X-rays by Australians ≥ 65 years old.

METHODS

A population-based epidemiological evaluation and yearly cross-sectional analyses of X-ray examinations per 1,000 Australians aged ≥ 65 years old between 2009 and 2019 were conducted using publicly available Medicare Benefits Schedule and Australian Bureau of Statistics data sources. Age and sex specific incidence rate (IR) of plain X-rays per 1,000 Australians, adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using a negative binomial regression model.

RESULTS

During the study period, the Australian population over 65 years old increased by 39% while the crude plain X-ray utilisation by this population increased by 63%. Most X-rays were conducted on extremities or the chest. Men used chest radiography more than women, and particularly for lungs, where the incidence increased the most in those ≥ 85 years old. There was an increase in X-rays of extremities and the hip joint between 2009-10 and 2013-14 in people ≥ 85 years old.

CONCLUSION

The utilisation of plain X-rays of the chest, the gastro-intestinal tract and extremities was high and has increased among older Australians between 2009-10 and 2018-19. Plain X-rays remain a commonly used diagnostic tool for conditions affecting the older population.

Prevalence of Eye Conditions, Utilization of Eye Health Care Services, and Ophthalmic Medications After Entering Residential Aged Care in Australia

Purpose

This study aims to evaluate the burden and trends of eye diseases, utilisation of eye health care services, and ophthalmic medications among older people living in residential aged care facilities in Australia.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the Registry of Senior Australians. Individuals aged ≥65 years who entered permanent residential aged care facilities between 2008 and 2015 were included. The prevalence (95% confidence interval [CI]) of eye diseases by year, eye health care services, and ophthalmic medication use within a year of entry into the service were evaluated. Poisson regression models estimated adjusted rate of change using prevalence ratio (PR) by age, sex, state, and frailty scores.

Results

Of the 409,186 people studied, 43.6% (N = 178,367) had an eye condition. Of the total cohort, 32.9% (N = 134,566) had chronic eye conditions and 19.7% (N = 80,661) had an acute eye condition. Common chronic eye conditions were glaucoma (13.6%, N = 55,830), cataract (8%, (N = 32,779), blindness (4.5%, N = 18,856), and poor vision (10.3%, N = 42,245). Prevalence of any eye condition (2008: 42.7%, 95% CI = 42.2%-43.2% and 2015: 41.2%, 95% CI = 40.8-41.6%, PR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.99-0.99, P < 0.001), acute eye conditions (2008: 19.8%, 95% CI = 19.4%-20.2% and 2015: 17.4%, 95% CI = 17.1%-17.6%, PR = 0.97, 95% CI = 0.97-0.98, P < 0.001), and blindness (2008: 5.2%, 95% CI = 5.0%-5.4% and 2015: 3.7%, 95% CI = 3.5%-3.9%, PR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.93-0.94, p < 0.001). decreased over the study period. The prevalence of glaucoma (2008: 13.5%, 95% CI = 13.2%-13.8% and 2015: 13.8%, 95% CI = 13.5%-13.7%; PR = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.99-1.10, P < 0.001) and cataract (2008: 7.4%, 95% CI = 7.2%-7.7% and 2015: 8.5%, 95% CI = 8.3%-8.7%, PR = 1.00, 95% CI = 1.00-1.01, P < 0.001) remained stable or slightly increased. Overall, 46.4% (N = 82,769) of individuals with eye conditions, accessed at least one eye health service within the first year of entering residential care and 70.5% (N = 125,673) used at least one ophthalmic medication. Optometric services (41.7%, N = 74,358) were the most used eye health care services and anti-infective eye drops (37.2%, N = 66,331) were the most commonly dispensed medications.

Conclusions

The prevalence of blindness among older Australian using residential aged care services decreased over the study period. However, the burden of eye diseases remained high between 2008 and 2015, whereas the use of eye health care services was disproportionately low. This study provides evidence of a significant need for eye health care services for older people with an eye disease in residential aged care facilities.

Translational Relevance

Four in ten long term aged care residents in Australia had at least one eye condition over the study period, indicating potential for a high eye health care needs in aged care settings.

Predictors of hospitalisations and emergency department presentations shortly after entering a residential aged care facility in Australia: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To: (1) examine the 90-day incidence of unplanned hospitalisation and emergency department (ED) presentations after residential aged care facility (RACF) entry, (2) examine individual-related, facility-related, medication-related, system-related and healthcare-related predictors of these outcomes and (3) create individual risk profiles.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study using the Registry of Senior Australians. Fine-Gray models estimated subdistribution HRs and 95% CIs. Harrell's C-index assessed risk models' predictive ability.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Individuals aged ≥65 years old entering a RACF as permanent residents in three Australian states between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2016 (N=116 192 individuals in 1967 RACFs).

PREDICTORS EXAMINED

Individual-related, facility-related, medication-related, system and healthcare-related predictors ascertained at assessments or within 90 days, 6 months or 1 year prior to RACF entry.

OUTCOME MEASURES

90-day unplanned hospitalisation and ED presentation post-RACF entry.

RESULTS

The cohort median age was 85 years old (IQR 80-89), 62% (N=71 861) were women, and 50.5% (N=58 714) had dementia. The 90-day incidence of unplanned hospitalisations was 18.0% (N=20 919) and 22.6% (N=26 242) had ED presentations. There were 34 predictors of unplanned hospitalisations and 34 predictors of ED presentations identified, 27 common to both outcomes and 7 were unique to each. The hospitalisation and ED presentation models out-of-sample Harrell's C-index was 0.664 (95% CI 0.657 to 0.672) and 0.655 (95% CI 0.648 to 0.662), respectively. Some common predictors of high risk of unplanned hospitalisation and ED presentations included: being a man, age, delirium history, higher activity of daily living, behavioural and complex care needs, as well as history, number and recency of healthcare use (including hospital, general practitioners attendances), experience of a high sedative load and several medications.

CONCLUSIONS

Within 90 days of RACF entry, 18.0% of individuals had unplanned hospitalisations and 22.6% had ED presentations. Several predictors, including modifiable factors, were identified at the time of care entry. This is an actionable period for targeting individuals at risk of hospitalisations.

Predictors of short-term hospitalization and emergency department presentations in aged care

OBJECTIVES

To examine individual, medication, system, and healthcare related predictors of hospitalization and emergency department (ED) presentation within 90 days of entering the aged care sector, and to create risk-profiles associated with these outcomes.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Retrospective population-based cohort study using data from the Registry of Senior Australians.

PARTICIPANTS

Older people (aged 65 and older) with an aged care eligibility assessment in South Australia between January 1, 2013 and May 31, 2016 (N = 22,130).

MEASUREMENTS

Primary outcomes were unplanned hospitalization and ED presentation within 90 days of assessment. Individual, medication, system, and healthcare related predictors of the outcomes at the time of assessment, within 90 days or 1-year prior. Fine-Gray models were used to calculate subdistribution hazard ratios (sHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Harrell's C-index assessed predictive ability.

RESULTS

Four thousand nine-hundred and six (22.2%) individuals were hospitalized and 5028 (22.7%) had an ED presentation within 90 days. Predictors of hospitalization included: being a man (hospitalization sHR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.26-1.42), ≥3 urgent after-hours attendances (hospitalization sHR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.06-1.39), increasing frailty index score (hospitalization sHR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.11-1.28), individuals using glucocorticoids (hospitalization sHR = 1.11, 95% CI 1.02-1.20), sulfonamides (hospitalization sHR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.10-1.27), trimethoprim antibiotics (hospitalization sHR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.03-1.29), unplanned hospitalizations 30 days prior (hospitalization sHR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.04-1.23), and ED presentations 1 year prior (hospitalization sHR = 1.07, 95% CI 1.04-1.10). Similar predictors and hazard estimates were also observed for ED presentations. The hospitalization models out-of-sample predictive ability (C-index = 0.653, 95% CI 0.635-0.670) and ED presentations (C-index = 0.647, 95% CI 0.630-0.663) were moderate.

CONCLUSIONS

One in five individuals with aged care eligibility assessments had unplanned hospitalizations and/or ED presentation within 90 days with several predictors identified at the time of aged care eligibility assessment. This is an actionable period for targeting at-risk individuals to reduce hospitalizations.

Utilisation of general practice health assessments around an aged care assessment is associated with lower mortality risk in older Australians

OBJECTIVE

(i) to describe the general practitioner utilisation of health assessments, management plans, coordination of team care arrangements and medication review item numbers within 6 months of an aged care eligibility assessment for home care packages (HCP) and (ii) investigate the impact of health assessments on the risk of mortality and entry into permanent residential aged care (PRAC) of individuals accessing HCP.

DESIGN AND SETTING

retrospective cohort study utilising data from the Registry of Senior Australians (ROSA) was conducted.

SUBJECTS

75,172 individuals aged ≥75 years who received HCP between 2011 and 2015.

OUTCOME MEASURE

for objective 1: the use of comprehensive assessments (Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS) items 705 or 707), management plans (MBS 721), coordination of team care arrangements (MBS 723), and medication reviews (MBS 900). For objective 2: time to death and entry into PRAC.

RESULTS

of the 75,172 individuals, 28.2% (95% confidence interval (CI): 27.8-8.5%) had comprehensive assessments, 36.7% (95% CI: 36.3-37.0%) had management plans, 33.0% (95% CI: 32.7-33.3%) received coordination of team care arrangements and 5.4% (95% CI: 5.2-5.5%) had medication reviews. Individuals with a comprehensive assessment had a 5% lower risk of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 95% CI = 0.95, 0.92-0.98) but 5% higher risk of transition to PRAC (adjusted subdistribution HRs, 95% CI = 1.05, 1.02-1.08) compared to those who did not have these services.

CONCLUSION

the utilisation of health assessments was associated with a lower risk of mortality. There is an opportunity for increased use of item numbers in frailer individuals.

The prevalence, trends and determinants of mental health disorders in older Australians living in permanent residential aged care: Implications for policy and quality of aged care services

OBJECTIVE

Mental health disorders are a major health concern in older people and are associated with a higher risk of disability, frailty and early mortality. This study aimed to conduct a contemporary population-based assessment of the prevalence, trends and factors associated with mental health disorders in individuals who are living in permanent residential aged care (PRAC) in Australia.

METHODS

A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted using national data from the Registry of Senior Australians, a national cohort of older Australians who had aged care eligibility assessment and entered PRAC between 2008 and 2016. Stepwise multivariate logistic regression modeling was applied to identify factors associated with mental health disorders.

RESULTS

Of 430,862 individuals included in this study, 57.8% had at least one mental health disorder. The prevalence of depression, phobia/anxiety and psychosis were as follows: 46.2% (95% confidence interval = [46.0%, 46.3%]), 14.9% (95% confidence interval = [14.8%, 15.0%]) and 9.7% (95% confidence interval = [9.6%, 9.8%]), respectively. The likelihood of having a mental health disorder was higher for those who were (adjusted odds ratio [95% confidence interval]) relatively younger, specifically for every 10-year increment in age, the odds of having mental health disorders was 44.0% lower (0.56, [0.55, 0.56]); female (1.33 [1.32, 1.35]); having increasing numbers of physical health comorbidities, 6-10 (1.26 [1.24, 1.29]) or 11-15 (1.48 [1.45, 1.51]) or more than 15 (1.64 [1.58, 1.71]) compared to people having less than five comorbidities; having limitations related to health care tasks (1.05 [1.04, 1.07]), meals (1.04 [1.02, 1.05]) or social and community participation (1.10 [1.08, 1.12]).

CONCLUSION

The burden of mental health disorders in older Australians living in PRAC was high and individuals with these conditions tend to be younger, with several physical comorbidities and/or functional limitations. Understanding the profile of individuals with mental health disorders at entry into PRAC can be used as evidence for baseline resource allocation for this population and evaluation of future needs of mental health services.

Factors associated with success in transition care services among older people in Australia

BACKGROUND

The Australian Transition Care Program (TCP) is a national intermediate care service aiming to optimise functional independence and delay entry to permanent care for older people leaving hospital. The aim of this study was to describe the outcomes of TCP and identify demographic and clinical factors associated with TCP 'success', to assist with clinical judgements about suitable candidates for the program.

METHOD

We conducted a descriptive cohort study of all older Australians accessing TCP for the first time between 2007 and 2015. Logistic regression models assessed demographic and clinical factors associated with change in performance on a modified Barthel Index from TCP entry to discharge and on discharge to community. Fine-Gray regression models estimated factors associated with transition to permanent care within 6 months of TCP discharge, with death as a competing event.

RESULTS

Functional independence improved from entry to discharge for 46,712 (38.4%) of 124,301 TCP users. Improvement was more common with younger age, less frailty, shorter hospital stay prior to TCP, and among women, those without a carer, living outside a major city, and without dementia. People who received TCP in a residential setting were far less likely to record improved functional impairment and more likely to be discharged to permanent care than those in a community setting. Discharge to community was more common with younger age and among women and those without dementia. Nearly 12% of community TCP and 63% of residential TCP users had transitioned to permanent care 6 months after discharge. Entry to permanent care was more common with older age, higher levels of frailty, and among those with dementia.

CONCLUSIONS

More than half of TCP users are discharged to home and remain at home after 6 months. However, residential-based TCP may have limited efficacy. Age, frailty, carer status, and dementia are key factors to consider when assessing program suitability. Future studies comparing users to a suitably matched control group will be very helpful for confirming whether the TCP program is meeting its aims.