The decline of invasive meningococcal disease and influenza in the time of COVID ‐19: the silver linings of the pandemic playbook

Geographical distribution of invasive meningococcal disease and carriage: A spatial analysis

Little information exists concerning the spatial relationship between invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) cases and Neisseria meningitidis (N. meningitidis) carriage. The aim of this study was to examine whether there is a relationship between IMD and asymptomatic oropharyngeal carriage of meningococci by spatial analysis to identify the distribution and patterns of cases and carriage in South Australia (SA). Carriage data geocoded to participants' residential addresses and meningococcal case notifications using Postal Area (POA) centroids were used to analyse spatial distribution by disease- and non-disease-associated genogroups, as well as overall from 2017 to 2020. The majority of IMD cases were genogroup B with the overall highest incidence of cases reported in infants, young children, and adolescents. We found no clear spatial association between N. meningitidis carriage and IMD cases. However, analyses using carriage and case genogroups showed differences in the spatial distribution between metropolitan and regional areas. Regional areas had a higher rate of IMD cases and carriage prevalence. While no clear relationship between cases and carriage was evident in the spatial analysis, the higher rates of both carriage and disease in regional areas highlight the need to maintain high vaccine coverage outside of the well-resourced metropolitan area.

Modelling the impact of COVID-19 and routine MenACWY vaccination on meningococcal carriage and disease in the UK

Country-wide social distancing and suspension of non-emergency medical care due to the COVID-19 pandemic will undoubtedly have affected public health in multiple ways. While non-pharmaceutical interventions are expected to reduce the transmission of several infectious diseases, severe disruptions to healthcare systems have hampered diagnosis, treatment, and routine vaccination. We examined the effect of this disruption on meningococcal disease and vaccination in the UK. By adapting an existing mathematical model for meningococcal carriage, we addressed the following questions: What is the predicted impact of the existing MenACWY adolescent vaccination programme? What effect might social distancing and reduced vaccine uptake both have on future epidemiology? Will catch-up vaccination campaigns be necessary? Our model indicated that the MenACWY vaccine programme was generating substantial indirect protection and suppressing transmission by 2020. COVID-19 social distancing is expected to have accelerated this decline, causing significant long-lasting reductions in both carriage prevalence of meningococcal A/C/W/Y strains and incidence of invasive meningococcal disease. In all scenarios modelled, pandemic social mixing effects outweighed potential reductions in vaccine uptake, causing an overall decline in carriage prevalence from 2020 for at least 5 years. Model outputs show strong consistency with recently published case data for England.

Impact of COVID-19 Containment Strategies and Meningococcal Conjugate ACWY Vaccination on Meningococcal Carriage in Adolescents

OBJECTIVES

To examine if COVID-19 containment strategies were associated with reduced pharyngeal carriage of meningococci in adolescents. Also, to observe if carriage prevalence of meningococcal A, C, W and Y differed in meningococcal conjugate ACWY vaccinated and unvaccinated adolescents.

DESIGN

Repeat cross-sectional study of pharyngeal carriage.

SETTING

In 2020, recruitment commenced from February to March (pre-COVID-19) and recommenced from August to September (during COVID-19 measures) in South Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

Eligible participants were between 17 and 25 years of age and completed secondary school in South Australia in 2019.

RESULTS

A total of 1338 school leavers were enrolled in 2020, with a mean age of 18.6 years (standard deviation 0.6). Pharyngeal carriage of disease-associated meningococci was higher during the COVID-19 period compared with the pre-COVID-19 period (41/600 [6.83%] vs. 27/738 [3.66%]; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.03; 95% CI: 1.22-3.39; P = 0.01). Nongroupable carriage decreased during COVID period (1.67% vs. 3.79%; aOR, 0.45; 95% CI: 0.22-0.95). Pharyngeal carriage of groups A, C, W and Y was similar among school leavers vaccinated with meningococcal conjugate ACWY (7/257 [2.72%]) compared with those unvaccinated (29/1081 [2.68%]; aOR, 0.86; 95% CI: 0.37-2.02; P = 0.73). Clonal complex 41/44 predominated in both periods.

CONCLUSIONS

Meningococcal carriage prevalence was not impacted by public health strategies to reduce severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission and is unlikely to be the mechanism for lower meningococcal disease incidence. As international travel resumes and influenza recirculates, clinicians must remain vigilant for signs and symptoms of meningococcal disease. Vaccinating people at the highest risk of invasive meningococcal disease remains crucial despite containment strategies.