Distributional benefits of tobacco tax and smoke-free workplaces in China: A modeling study

Tobacco excise tax reform: From the perspective of "tax to control tobacco" policy in China

The consumption of tobacco is harmful to health and has huge social costs. "Tax to control tobacco" is a widely implemented tobacco control measure all over the world. In order to examine the achievements of two tobacco excise tax reforms in China in 2009 and 2015 on controlling tobacco consumption, we first establish an intertemporal consumption model for addictive goods, and then validate the effectiveness of the two tobacco excise tax reforms using a Continuous Difference-in-Differences Model based on the panel data from 294 cities in China from 2007 to 2018. The results show that the tobacco excise tax reform in 2015 considerably reduced tobacco consumption, while the reform in 2009 did not, providing empirical evidence on the importance of "price links to tax" for tobacco control. Additionally, the study discovers that the tax reform has a heterogeneous effect on the age of smokers, the price of cigarettes, and city size.

Cost-Effectiveness of Four Tobacco Control Interventions in Mongolia

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study is to quantify the cost-effectiveness of four tobacco control interventions: Tobacco taxation, mass media campaigns, school programs, and cessation support, and to illustrate how available evaluation tools can be adapted to the local setting.

AIMS AND METHODS

We used the dynamic population health modeling-health impact assessment tool to project the future smoking prevalence associated with the interventions and to simulate the resulting smoking-related disease burden over time. Applying the most recent available national Mongolian data as input, the costs and effects of four interventions were compared to a business-as-usual scenario, resulting in costs per life year gained and per disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted.

RESULTS

Three years after implementation, all interventions reduce the prevalence of current smoking, with the strongest reduction observed with the increase in tobacco tax (5.1% points), followed by mass media campaigns (1.6% points), school programs (1.3% points), and cessation support interventions (0.6% points). School programs were a cost-saving tobacco control intervention compared to current practice in Mongolia, while the other programs resulted in additional costs compared to business as usual. Compared to the World Health Organization (WHO) thresholds, all interventions would be considered "very cost-effective" in terms of cost per DALY averted (below US$ 4295 per DALY averted) in Mongolia.

CONCLUSIONS

Large-scale interventions such as taxation and mass media campaigns result in both cost-effectiveness and important health benefits in relation to intervention costs. Reducing the prevalence of smoking among the male population would be particularly worthwhile in Mongolia.

IMPLICATIONS

This study shows that in Mongolia school programs were a cost-saving intervention, while the cost-effectiveness ratios were US$ 25 per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for mass media campaigns, US$ 74 for taxation, and US$ 1961 for cessation support interventions. Compared to the WHO thresholds, all interventions would be considered "very cost-effective" in terms of expenses per DALY averted ( Collapse

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MESH Headings

• Humans
• Male
• Cost-Benefit Analysis
• Tobacco Control
• Mongolia/epidemiology
• Smoking/epidemiology
• Cost of Illness

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Grants

• Mongolian government and the UMCG

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Affiliation(s)

Ariuntuya Tuvdendorj Department of Health Policy, School of Public Health, Mongolian National University of Medical Sciences, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia Department of Epidemiology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
Talitha Feenstra Department of Epidemiology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands Faculty of Science and Engineering, Groningen Research Institute of Pharmacy, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands Faculty of Science and Engineering, Centre for Nutrition, Prevention, and Health Services, Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
Erik Buskens Department of Epidemiology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands

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Identifying best modelling practices for tobacco control policy simulations: a systematic review and a novel quality assessment framework

BACKGROUND

Policy simulation models (PSMs) have been used extensively to shape health policies before real-world implementation and evaluate post-implementation impact. This systematic review aimed to examine best practices, identify common pitfalls in tobacco control PSMs and propose a modelling quality assessment framework.

METHODS

We searched five databases to identify eligible publications from July 2013 to August 2019. We additionally included papers from Feirman et al for studies before July 2013. Tobacco control PSMs that project tobacco use and tobacco-related outcomes from smoking policies were included. We extracted model inputs, structure and outputs data for models used in two or more included papers. Using our proposed quality assessment framework, we scored these models on population representativeness, policy effectiveness evidence, simulated smoking histories, included smoking-related diseases, exposure-outcome lag time, transparency, sensitivity analysis, validation and equity.

FINDINGS

We found 146 eligible papers and 25 distinct models. Most models used population data from public or administrative registries, and all performed sensitivity analysis. However, smoking behaviour was commonly modelled into crude categories of smoking status. Eight models only presented overall changes in mortality rather than explicitly considering smoking-related diseases. Only four models reported impacts on health inequalities, and none offered the source code. Overall, the higher scored models achieved higher citation rates.

CONCLUSIONS

While fragments of good practices were widespread across the reviewed PSMs, only a few included a 'critical mass' of the good practices specified in our quality assessment framework. This framework might, therefore, potentially serve as a benchmark and support sharing of good modelling practices.

Problems and Solutions of Taxation to Control Unhealthy Goods: A Qualitative Study

Background: Taxes on unhealthy goods, in addition to reducing the consumption of these goods, preventing related diseases, and promoting public health, can provide significant financial resources for the health sector. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate the problems and solutions of taxation to control the consumption of unhealthy goods to improve public health. Methods: This qualitative study was conducted in 2021. Semi-structured interviews with open-ended questions were held to collect information. Sampling was performed by purposive and snowball methods with 31 managers and key experts. The data were analyzed using the content analysis method. MAXQDA software (version 12) was used for classification and coding. Results: This study labeled 2 main themes and 10 subthemes. The main themes included problems of controlling unhealthy goods and solutions to controlling unhealthy goods. Poor decision-making, planning, and execution, production-related problems, smuggling and poor supervision, increased consumption of harmful goods, conflicts of interest, and advertisements of unhealthy goods are the most important of these problems. Imposing taxes, duties, and price hikes, providing alternatives, paying attention to all determinants of supply and demand, and taxation on advertising are also solutions to control unhealthy products. Conclusions: The health level of individuals should be improved by imposing taxes on unhealthy goods, determining accurate tax rates, and simultaneously using measures, such as providing alternatives to unhealthy goods and controlling advertisements. Paying serious attention to the list of harmful goods, coordination and cooperation of related organizations in formulating and implementing tax policies, and providing suitable alternatives to harmful products are the practical suggestions of this study.

The role of taxation measures in the management of harmful products, services, and practices in Iran: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Levying a tax on harmful products, services, and practices can affect consumer choices, effectively preventing diseases and reducing health care costs. The goal of this study was to investigate the role of taxation as a powerful financial tool in the management of harmful products, services, and practices to maintain and improve public health and preserve the financial sustainability of the health care system.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This qualitative study was conducted in 2020-2021. In order to collect information for this study, semi-structured interviews were conducted. Using purposive and snowball sampling methods, 38 managers, policymakers, economists, and key experts were interviewed. Data were analyzed using the content analysis method. The transcribed interviews were further imported into MAXQDA for classification, and relevant codes were extracted.

FINDINGS

In this study, 6 main themes and 19 subthemes were labeled. The main themes included 1) objectives, effects, and requirements of the taxation of harmful products, services, and practices, 2) definition, instances, elasticity, and grading of harmful products, services, and practices, 3) Problems in controlling harmful products, services, and practices, 4) controlling harmful products, services, and practices, 5) traffic violations and accidents, and social harms, and 6) tax revenue use and the share of health care. The effects of taxing harmful products include reduced access to these products, reduced demand for harmful products, and the promotion of public health.

CONCLUSION

Harmful products, services, and practices have major health and financial implications for individuals, families, and society. To improve public health, the demand for these products and services can be controlled through taxation measures to push consumers toward less harmful alternatives.

Explaining specific taxes management and use in the health sector: a qualitative study

Background and aim

Being the major source of revenue and essential economic tool for policymakers to improve public health, taxes contribute to government spending on the development of health care facilities and services. Given the financial challenges facing the health sector together with the public health issues that affect each society, placing specific taxes on some goods, services, and activities can be effective in this regard. The study aims to explain the various dimensions of specific taxes in the health sector and management of these resources in order to achieve the health system goals.

Materials and methods

This study with a qualitative research design was conducted using semi-structured interviews with open-ended questions in 2020–2021. In total, 38 managers, policymakers, economists, key experts, and other individuals, as informants, were interviewed. Purposive and snowball with maximum variation was also employed. As well, content analysis was utilized to shed light on the data. The transcribed interviews were further imported into MAXQDA for extracting and classifying the relevant codes.

Findings

In this study, 5 main themes and 23 subthemes were labeled. The main themes accordingly included “Objectives and Conditions of Specific Health Taxes”, “Earmarked Taxes”, “Taxes on Goods and Measures of Harmful to Health”, “Value-Added Taxes”, and “Green Taxes”.

Discussion and conclusion

Considering the specific taxes in the health sector, i.e., taxes on goods and measures of harmful to health, value-added taxes, and green taxes, all taxation and pricing policies need to take account of the effects as well as the advantages and disadvantages of types of taxes, a country’s economic structure, the conditions of industries and manufacturing enterprises, cultural aspects in society, and peoples’ socioeconomic status.

Trends in Smoking Prevalence and Intensity between 2010 and 2018: Implications for Tobacco Control in China

BACKGROUND

China is the world's largest producer and consumer of cigarettes. Since 2010, the Chinese government has implemented many policies to combat the tobacco epidemic, yet little is known about their overall impacts. This study aims to investigate the trends in smoking prevalence and intensity between 2010 and 2018.

METHODS

We use five waves of data from China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), a nationally representative survey, to examine the trends in smoking prevalence and intensity. We use the chi-square test and t-test to examine differences across waves. Binary logistic regressions and linear regressions are applied to examine the association between smoking behaviors and risk factors.

RESULTS

The current smoking prevalence dropped from 30.30% in 2010 (90% CI 29.47-31.31) to 28.69% (90% CI 27.69-29.69) in 2018. As for smoking intensity, the average daily cigarettes consumption decreased steadily from 16.96 cigarettes (90% CI 16.55-17.36) in 2010 to 15.12 cigarettes (90% CI 15.07-15.94) in 2018. Smoking risk factors for men included marriage status, education level, employment status, alcohol consumption, and physical activities. The smoking risk was higher for women with a lower education level, lower household income, unemployment status, and alcohol consumption behavior.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows declined trends in both smoking prevalence and intensity between 2010 and 2018, suggesting some positive progress in tobacco control in China. Nonetheless, to achieve the goal of reducing smoking prevalence among people aged 15 and above to less than 20% by 2030, the Chinese government needs to take stronger anti-tobacco measures.

Evaluation of Tobacco Control Measures in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Countries: A Comparative Study Using Data Envelopment Analysis

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to measure the efficiency and productivity of tobacco control policies across 16 selected Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 2008 to 2014.

STUDY DESIGN

A panel-data study.

METHODS

Data envelopment analysis was used in this study. Taxation on tobacco products and pictorial warning labels were chosen as the inputs. Percentage of the population of daily smokers above 15 years old and the number of cigarettes used per smoker per day were output variables. Additionally, the Malmquist total factor productivity (TFP) was used to analyze the panel data and measure productivity change and technical efficiency changes over time.

RESULTS

The highest technical efficiency score (1.05) was attributed to Norway, while the lowest (0.91) belonged to the UK. Technological change with a total mean of 1.06 implied that the technology and creativity have increased, while countries have been able to promote their creativity over the studied period. Norway with the TFP score of 1.15 was the most productive country, while the UK and Turkey with TFP scores of 0.95 and 0.98, respectively, were the least productive countries in terms of the implementation of the tobacco control policies.

CONCLUSION

Most OECD countries have productively implemented tax and pictorial warning policies to reduce tobacco use. To achieve the optimum outcome of the tobacco control policies and overcome the challenges of smoking use, countries need to tackle the difficult underlying factors, i.e. tobacco industry opposition and lobbyists, smuggling, and low socioeconomic status.

Distributional health and financial consequences of increased cigarette tax in Iran: extended cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

To assess the potential impact of a tax-induced cigarette price increase on financial and health outcomes by different socioeconomic groups.

METHODS

In a modeled condition using pooled cross-section data from Household Income and Expenditure Survey (2002-2017) and Iran 2019 population data, a methodology of an extended cost effectiveness analysis (ECEA) was applied to model the impact on cigarette consumption of hypothetically increased cigarette tax. The methodology was employed to evaluate: [1] health benefits (premature deaths averted); [2] health expenditures regarding smoking-related disease treatment averted; [3] additional tax revenues raised; [4] change in household expenditures on cigarettes; and [5] financial risk protection among male Iranian smokers in a time span of 60 years following a one-time increase in cigarette price of 75%. The Stata version 15.1 (StataCorp., College Station, TX, USA) was used to perform the relevant analysis and estimate regression models.

RESULTS

A 75% increase in cigarettes price through taxation would reduce the number of smokers by more than half a million, 11% of them in the poorest quintile; save about 1.9 million years of life (11% of which would be gained in the lowest quintile compared to 20% in the highest one); eliminate a total of US$196.4 million of health expenditures (9% of which would benefit the bottom quintile). Such a policy could raise the additional annual tax revenues by roughly US$ 1 billion, where the top two quintiles bear around 46% of the total tax burden. We estimated that the tax increase would avert an estimated 56,287 cases of catastrophic expenditure that wholly concentrated among the bottom two expenditure quintiles.

CONCLUSION

Increasing cigarette tax can provide health and financial benefits, and would be pro-poor in terms of health gains, Out-of-Pocket (OOP) savings, and financial risk protection against smoking-related diseases.

The impact of comprehensive tobacco control policies on cardiovascular diseases in Beijing, China

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

China has a high smoking prevalence, but lacks effective tobacco control interventions. In 2015, comprehensive policies that incorporated all six aspects of MPOWER were implemented in Beijing and were considered the strictest tobacco control policy implemented in China to date. Decreases in the prevalence of active smoking and secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure were observed thereafter. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of Beijing's 2015 tobacco control policy package on cardiovascular diseases (CVDs).

DESIGN

Interrupted time-series study.

SETTING

Beijing, China.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 17.7 million employees enrolled in Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance (UEBMI) between January 2013 to June 2017.

INTERVENTIONS

Beijing's 2015 comprehensive tobacco policy package, combining a complete ban on smoking in indoor public places, cessation support, more comprehensive bans on advertising, and tax rises.

MEASUREMENTS

The main outcome was hospital admissions for all CVDs and five major cause-specific CVDs, including ischaemic heart disease (IHD), heart failure (HF), heart rhythm disturbances (HRDs), stroke and other cerebrovascular diseases (CBDs). The absolute number and proportion of reductions in the number of hospital admissions after the policies are reported.

FINDINGS

A total of 419 875 hospital admissions for CVD were identified. In total, 13.4% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 11.5%, 15.3%] of hospital admissions for CVD were averted by the tobacco control policies. For major cause-specific CVDs, significant hospital admission reductions occurred for IHD (5.4%, 95% CI = 2.6%, 8.3%), stroke (21.2%, 95% CI = 17.8%, 24.6%) and other CBDs (25.9%, 95% CI = 20.8%, 31.0%), but not for HF (4.7%, 95% CI = -4.2%, 13.5%) or HRDs (4.7%, 95% CI = -2.9%, 12.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

Beijing's 2015 tobacco control policy package appears to have been associated with a more than 10% reduction in all cardiovascular hospital admissions, including a more than 20% reduction in admissions for cerebrovascular diseases.

Informing policy makers on the efficiency of population level tobacco control interventions in Asia: A systematic review of model-based economic evaluations

BACKGROUND

Economic evaluations of tobacco control interventions support decisions regarding resource allocation in public health policy. Our systematic review was aimed at identifying potential bias in decision models used to estimate the long-term costs and effects of population-based tobacco control interventions in Asia.

METHODS

We included studies conducted in Asian countries and using a modelling technique to evaluate the economic impacts of one or more population-based tobacco interventions in line with the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). We assessed the structure, input parameters, and risk of bias for each model, and performed a narrative synthesis of the included studies.

RESULTS

Nine model-based economic evaluation studies of population-based tobacco interventions were identified. About 60% of the criteria for reporting quality were met in all studies, indicating that reporting generally lacked transparency. The studies were highly heterogeneous in terms of the scope, types, and structures of their models and the quality of input parameters. One-third of the models applied in the studies scored a high risk of bias, with problems mostly falling into the following categories: model type, time horizons, and smoking transition probabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

More data are needed to provide high-quality evidence regarding the cost-effectiveness of tobacco control policies in Asia. Strong evidence at the country level hinges on the availability of accurate estimates of the effects of the interventions, the relative risks of smoking, and the price elasticity of the demand for tobacco. Simple transfers of models built in Western populations do not suffice.

PROTOCOL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD 42019141679.

Noncommunicable Diseases Attributable To Tobacco Use In China: Macroeconomic Burden And Tobacco Control Policies

Smoking causes health problems for individuals and imposes a sizable macroeconomic burden on countries. As the world's leading tobacco producer and consumer, China is at the epicenter of this health crisis. However, no studies have examined the macroeconomic burden of all relevant noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) attributable to tobacco or secondhand smoke exposure. We assessed how tobacco-attributable NCDs affect China's productive capacity and estimated that these diseases would impose a total cost of 16.7 trillion yuan (US$2.3 trillion, in constant 2018 prices) in the period 2015-30, which corresponds to an annual tax of 0.9 percent on aggregate income. Secondhand smoke exposure accounts for 14 percent of the burden. If China raised the tax on cigarettes to 75 percent of their retail price and implemented wide-ranging tobacco-control policies, the Chinese economy could save 7.1 trillion yuan (US$1.0 trillion) for 2015-30-the equivalent of adding a 0.4 percent dividend annually.

Impact of cigarette tax increase on health and financing outcomes in four Indian states

Background: In India, about one million deaths occur every year due to smoking. Tobacco taxation is the most effective intervention in reducing smoking. In this paper, we examine the impact of a one-time large cigarette price increase, through an increase in excise tax, on health and financing outcomes in four Indian states. Methods: We used extended cost-effectiveness analysis to estimate, across income quintiles, the life-years gained, treatment cost averted, number of men avoiding catastrophic health expenditures and extreme poverty, additional tax revenue collected, and savings to the Ayushman Bharat Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (AB-PMJAY) with a cigarette price increase to Indian Rupees (INR) 10 plus 10% ad valorem in four Indian states. Results: With the price increase, about 1.5 million men would quit smoking across the four states, with the bottom income group having 7.4 times as many quitters as the top income group (485,725 vs 65,762). As a result of quitting, about 665,000 deaths would be averted. This would yield about 11.9 million life-years, with the bottom income group gaining 7.3 times more than the top income group. Of the INR 1,729 crore in treatment cost averted, the bottom income group would avert 7.4 times more than the top income group. About 454,000 men would avoid catastrophic health expenditures and 75,000 men would avoid falling into extreme poverty. The treatment cost and impoverishment averted would save about INR 672 crore in AB-PMJAY. The tax increase would in turn, generate an additional tax revenue of about INR 4,385 crore. In contrast to the distribution of health benefits, the extra revenue generated from the top income group would be about 3.1 times that from the bottom income group. Conclusions: Cigarette tax increase can provide significant health and economic gains and is a pro-poor policy for India.

Impact of a comprehensive tobacco control policy package on acute myocardial infarction and stroke hospital admissions in Beijing, China: interrupted time series study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate a comprehensive tobacco control policy package on hospital admissions for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke in a global city.

DESIGN

Interrupted time series study.

SETTING

Beijing, China.

POPULATION

31 707 AMI and 128 116 stroke hospital admissions recorded by the Beijing Medical Claim Data for Employees in 17.7 million residents from January 2013 to June 2017.

INTERVENTION

The policy package including all components of MPOWER has been implemented since June 2015.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The immediate change of AMI and stroke hospital admissions and the annual change in the secular trend.

RESULTS

There was a secular increase trend for the crude hospital admission rates of AMI and stroke during the observational period. After implementation of the policy, immediate reductions were observed in the hospital admissions for both AMI (-5.4%, 95% CI -10.0% to -0.5%) and stroke (-5.6%, 95% CI -7.8% to -3.3%). In addition, the secular increase trend for stroke was slowed down by -15.3% (95% CI -16.7% to -13.9%) annually. Compared with the hypothetical scenario where the policy had not taken place, an estimated 18 137 (26.7%) stroke hospital admissions had been averted during the 25 months of postpolicy period.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicated significant health benefits on cardiovascular morbidity after the Beijing tobacco control policy package, which highlighted the importance for a comprehensive tobacco control policy at the national level in China. Similar tobacco control policy which consists of all components of MPOWER is urgently needed in other areas, especially in settings with high tobacco consumption, to achieve greater public health gains.

The distributional impact of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages: findings from an extended cost-effectiveness analysis in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Facing increasing obesity prevalence and obesity-related disease burden, South Africa has devised an obesity prevention strategy that includes a recently implemented tax on the sugar content of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). We assess the potential distributional impact (across socioeconomic groups) of this tax on type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) incidence and associated mortality and its financial burden on households.

METHODS

We conducted an extended cost-effectiveness analysis of the new 10% tax on SSBs in South Africa, and estimated: the averted premature deaths related to T2DM, the financial benefits to households (out-of-pocket (OOP) medical costs and indirect costs due to productivity losses averted), the increased government tax revenues and healthcare savings for the government, all across income quintiles.

FINDINGS

A 10% SSB tax increase would avert an estimated 8000 T2DM-related premature deaths over 20 years, with most deaths averted among the third and fourth income quintiles. The government would save about South African rand (ZAR) 2 billion (US$140 million) in subsidised healthcare over 20 years; and would raise ZAR6 billion (US$450 million) in tax revenues per annum. The bottom two quintiles would bear the smallest tax burden increase (36% of the additional taxes). The bottom two income quintiles would also have the lowest savings in OOP payments due to significant subsidisation provided by government healthcare. Lastly, an estimated 32 000 T2DM-related cases of catastrophic expenditures and 12 000 cases of poverty would be averted.

CONCLUSIONS

SSB taxation would have a substantial distributional impact on obesity-related premature deaths, cost savings to the government and the financial outcomes of South Africa's population.

Distributional health and financial benefits of increased tobacco taxes in Colombia: results from a modelling study

BACKGROUND

In Colombia, smoking is the second leading modifiable risk factor for premature mortality. In December 2016, Colombia passed a major tax increase on tobacco products in an effort to decrease smoking and improve population health. While tobacco taxes are known to be highly effective in reducing the prevalence of smoking, they are often criticised as being regressive in consumption. This analysis attempts to assess the distributional impact (across socioeconomic groups) of the new tax on selected health and financial outcomes.

METHODS

This study builds on extended cost-effectiveness analysis methods to study the new tobacco tax in Colombia, and estimates, over a time period of 20 years and across income quintiles of the current urban population (80% of the country population), the years of life gained with smoking cessation and the increased tax revenues, all associated with a 70% relative price increase of the pack of cigarettes. Where possible, we use parameters that vary by income quintile, including price elasticity of demand for cigarettes (average of -0.44 estimated from household survey data).

FINDINGS

Over 20 years, the tax increase would lead to an estimated 191 000 years of life gained among Colombia's current urban population, with the largest gains among the bottom two income quintiles. The additional annual tax revenues raised would amount to about 2%-4% of Colombia's annual government health expenditure, with the poorest quintiles bearing the smallest tax burden increase.

CONCLUSIONS

The tobacco tax increase passed by Colombia has substantial implications for the country's population health and financial well-being, with large benefits likely to accrue to the two poorest quintiles of the population.