qSOFA as a predictor of ICU outcomes in a resource-limited setting in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa

Prognostic evaluation of quick sequential organ failure assessment score in ICU patients with sepsis across different income settings

BACKGROUND

There is conflicting evidence on association between quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) and sepsis mortality in ICU patients. The primary aim of this study was to determine the association between qSOFA and 28-day mortality in ICU patients admitted for sepsis. Association of qSOFA with early (3-day), medium (28-day), late (90-day) mortality was assessed in low and lower middle income (LLMIC), upper middle income (UMIC) and high income (HIC) countries/regions.

METHODS

This was a secondary analysis of the MOSAICS II study, an international prospective observational study on sepsis epidemiology in Asian ICUs. Associations between qSOFA at ICU admission and mortality were separately assessed in LLMIC, UMIC and HIC countries/regions. Modified Poisson regression was used to determine the adjusted relative risk (RR) of qSOFA score on mortality at 28 days with adjustments for confounders identified in the MOSAICS II study.

RESULTS

Among the MOSAICS II study cohort of 4980 patients, 4826 patients from 343 ICUs and 22 countries were included in this secondary analysis. Higher qSOFA was associated with increasing 28-day mortality, but this was only observed in LLMIC (p < 0.001) and UMIC (p < 0.001) and not HIC (p = 0.220) countries/regions. Similarly, higher 90-day mortality was associated with increased qSOFA in LLMIC (p < 0.001) and UMIC (p < 0.001) only. In contrast, higher 3-day mortality with increasing qSOFA score was observed across all income countries/regions (p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that qSOFA remained associated with 28-day mortality (adjusted RR 1.09 (1.00-1.18), p = 0.038) even after adjustments for covariates including APACHE II, SOFA, income country/region and administration of antibiotics within 3 h.

CONCLUSIONS

qSOFA was independently associated with 28-day mortality in ICU patients admitted for sepsis. In LLMIC and UMIC countries/regions, qSOFA was associated with early to late mortality but only early mortality in HIC countries/regions.

Investigating the Utility of the SOFA Score and Creating a Modified SOFA Score for Predicting Mortality in the Intensive Care Units in a Tertiary Hospital in Jordan

Background

The utility of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score in predicting mortality in the intensive care unit (ICU) has been demonstrated before, but serial testing in various settings is required to validate and improve the score. This study examined the utility of the SOFA score in predicting mortality in Jordanian ICU patients and aimed to find a modified score that required fewer laboratory tests.

Methods

A prospective observational study was conducted at Jordan University Hospital (JUH). All adult patients admitted to JUH ICUs between June and December 2020 were included in the study. SOFA scores were measured daily during the whole ICU stay. A modified SOFA score (mSOFA) was constructed from the available laboratory, clinical, and demographic data. The performance of the SOFA, mSOFA, qSOFA, and SIRS in predicting ICU mortality was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).

Results

194 patients were followed up. SOFA score (mean ± SD) at admission was significantly higher in non-survivors (7.5 ± 3.9) compared to survivors (2.4 ± 2.2) and performed the best in predicting ICU mortality (AUROC = 0.8756, 95% CI: 0.8117-0.9395) compared to qSOFA (AUROC = 0.746, 95% CI: 0.655-0.836) and SIRS (AUROC = 0.533, 95% CI: 0.425-0.641). The constructed mSOFA included points for the hepatic and CNS SOFA scores, in addition to one point each for the presence of chronic kidney disease or the use of breathing support; it performed as well as the SOFA score in this cohort or better than the SOFA score in a subgroup of patients with heart disease.

Conclusion

SOFA score was a good predictor of mortality in a Jordanian ICU population and better than qSOFA, while SIRS could not predict mortality. Furthermore, the proposed mSOFA score which employed fewer laboratory tests could be used after validation from larger studies.

An analysis of referrals to a level 3 intensive care unit in a resource-limited setting in South Africa

Background

With a shortage of intensive care unit (ICU) beds and rising healthcare costs in resource-limited settings, clinicians need to appropriately triage admissions into ICU to avoid wasteful expenditure and unnecessary bed utilisation.

Objectives

To assess the nature, appropriateness and outcome of referrals to a tertiary centre ICU.

Methods

A retrospective review of ICU consults from September 2016 to February 2017 at King Edward VIII Hospital was performed. The study was approved by the University of KwaZulu-Natal Biomedical Research Ethics Committee (BE291/17). Data pertaining to patients' demographics, referring doctor, diagnosis, comorbidities as well as biochemical and haemodynamic parameters were extracted. This information was then cross-referenced to the outcome of the ICU consultation. Data were descriptively analysed.

Results

Five hundred consultations were reviewed over a 6-month period; 52.2% of patients were male and the mean age was 44 years. Junior medical officers referred 164 (32.8%) of the consultations. Although specialist supervision was available in 459 cases, it was only utilised in 339 (73.9%) of these cases. Most referrals were from tertiary (46.8%) or regional (30.4%) hospitals; however, direct referrals from district hospitals and clinics accounted for 20.4% and 1.4% of consultations, respectively. The appropriate referral pathway was not followed in 81 (16.2%) consultations. Forty-five percent of consults were accepted; however, 9.3% of these patients died before arrival in ICU. A total of 151 (30.2%) patients were refused ICU admission, with the majority (57%) of these owing to futility. Patients were unstable at the time of consult in 53.2% of referrals and 34.4% of consults had missing data.

Conclusion

Critically ill patients are often referred by junior doctors without senior consultation, and directly from low-level healthcare facilities. A large proportion of ICU referrals are deemed futile and, of the patients accepted for admission, almost 1 in 10 dies prior to ICU admission. More emphasis needs to be placed on the training of doctors to appropriately triage and manage critically ill patients and ensure appropriate ICU referral and optimising of patient outcomes.

Contributions of the study

There is a paucity of information related to ICU referrals in South Africa. The nature, appropriateness and outcomes of referrals to a tertiary ICU is discussed in this study.

Association between pre-intensive care unit (ICU) hospital length of stay and ICU outcomes in a resource-limited setting

Background

Previous studies demonstrated higher mortality for patients with a longer pre-intensive care unit (ICU) hospital length of stay (LOS), in well-resourced settings.

Objectives

The study aimed to determine the association between pre-ICU hospital LOS and ICU outcomes in a resource-limited setting. We hypothesised that longer pre-ICU hospital LOS would be associated with higher ICU mortality.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study measuring the association between pre-ICU hospital LOS and ICU outcomes using data extracted from a regional hospital ICU in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Consecutive ICU admissions of all patients (medical and surgical) older than 18 years were included during the study period September 2014 to August 2018. A corrected sample size of 2 040 patients was identified. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the primary outcome of ICU mortality, and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression was used for the secondary outcome of ICU LOS.

Results

The median pre-ICU hospital LOS was 1 day (interquartile range (IQR) 0 - 2 days). The median length of ICU stay was 2.4 days (IQR 1.1 - 4.8 days) and the observed ICU mortality was 16% (n=327/2 040). Pre-ICU hospital LOS was not associated with ICU mortality in the unadjusted (odds ratio (OR) 1.00; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.98 - 1.02; p=0.68; n=2 040) and fully adjusted logistic regression models (OR 1.00; 95% CI 0.98 - 1.03; p=0.90; n=1 981) using a complete case analysis for missing patient-level covariates. In Cox proportional hazard models, there was no association between pre-ICU hospital LOS and ICU LOS (hazard ratio 1.00; 95% CI 0.98 - 1.03; p=0.72; n=1 967), including when stratified by admission source.

Conclusion

Pre-ICU hospital LOS was not associated with either ICU mortality or ICU LOS in a resource-limited setting. Future studies should aim to include multicentre data and evaluate long-term outcomes.

Contributions of the study

The study was conducted in a resource-limited setting and found no association between prolonged LOS pre-ICU and patient outcomes. Several potential explanations for this observation have been explored. This important subject is pertinent to the appropriate use of limited resources and encourages future studies to evaluate this association and to consider longer-term outcomes (e.g. 30-day mortality) in future findings.

Prognostic value of the Quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score among critically ill medical and surgical patients with suspected infection in a resource-limited setting

Background

The Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score is a simple bedside tool validated outside of the intensive care unit (ICU) to identify patients with suspected infection who are at risk for poor outcomes.

Objectives

To assess qSOFA at the time of ICU referral as a mortality prognosticator in adult medical v. surgical patients with suspected infection admitted to an ICU in a resource-limited regional hospital in South Africa (SA).

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study on adult medical or surgical patients that were admitted to an ICU in a resource-limited hospital in SA. We performed univariate and multivariable logistic regression and compared nested models using likelihood ratio test, and we calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).

Results

We recruited a total of 1 162 (medical n=283 and surgical n=875) participants in the study who were admitted to the ICU with suspected infection. qSOFA at the time of ICU referral was highly associated with but poorly discriminant of in-ICU mortality among medical (odds ratio (OR) 2.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19 - 5.71; p=0.02; AUROC 0.60; 95% CI 0.53 - 0.67; p=0.02) and surgical (OR 2.74; 95% CI 1.73-4.36; p<0.001; AUROC 0.60; 95% CI 0.55 - 0.65; p=0.04) patients. qSOFA model performance was similar between medical and surgical subgroups (p≥0.26). Addition of qSOFA to a baseline risk factor model including age, sex, and HIV status improved the model discrimination in both subgroups (medical AUROC 0.64; 95% CI 0.56 - 0.71; p=0.049; surgical AUROC 0.69; 95% CI 0.64 - 0.74; p<0.0001).

Conclusion

qSOFA was highly associated with, but poorly discriminant for, poor outcomes among medical and surgical patients with suspected infection admitted to the ICU in a resource-limited setting. These findings suggest that qSOFA may be useful as a tool to identify patients at increased risk of mortality in these populations and in this context.