Low Risk of International Zika Virus Spread due to the 2016 Olympics in Brazil

Comparative overview of emerging RNA viruses: Epidemiology, pathogenesis, diagnosis and current treatment

From many decades, emerging infections have threatened humanity. The pandemics caused by different CoVs have already claimed and will continue to claim millions of lives. The SARS, Ebola, MERS epidemics and the most recent emergence of COVID-19 pandemic have threatened populations across borders. Since a highly pathogenic CoV has been evolved into the human population in the twenty-first century known as SARS, scientific advancements and innovative methods to tackle these viruses have increased in order to improve response preparedness towards the unpredictable threat posed by these rapidly emerging pathogens. Recently published review articles on SARS-CoV-2 have mainly focused on its pathogenesis, epidemiology and available treatments. However, in this review, we have done a systematic comparison of all three CoVs i.e., SARS, MERS and SARS-CoV-2 along with Ebola and Zika in terms of their epidemiology, virology, clinical features and current treatment strategies. This review focuses on important emerging RNA viruses starting from Zika, Ebola and the CoVs which include SARS, MERS and SARS-CoV-2. Each of these viruses has been elaborated on the basis of their epidemiology, virulence, transmission and treatment. However, special attention has been given to SARS-CoV-2 and the disease caused by it i.e., COVID-19 due to current havoc caused worldwide. At the end, insights into the current understanding of the lessons learned from previous epidemics to combat emerging CoVs have been described. The travel-related viral spread, the unprecedented nosocomial outbreaks and the high case-fatality rates associated with these highly transmissible and pathogenic viruses highlight the need for new prophylactic and therapeutic actions which include but are not limited to clinical indicators, contact tracing, and laboratory investigations as important factors that need to be taken into account in order to arrive at the final conclusion.

Lack of Zika Virus and Other Recognized Flaviviruses among the Mosquito Vectors during and Post the Hajj Mass Gathering

Makkah city, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), contains many of the world’s mosquito vectors of parasitic and arboviral disease and is the site of the Hajj mass gathering. As such there is a risk of exportation and globalization of vector-borne viruses, including the re-emerging Zika virus (ZIKV). There was international concern regarding the introduction of ZIKV to KSA and potential international spread of the virus following the 2016 Hajj which took place few days after the Rio summer Olympics at the height of the ZIKV pandemic. We aimed to detect flaviviruses, including ZIKV, circulating among mosquito hosts in the city of Makkah during and post the 2016 Hajj pilgrimage. Mosquitos (adults and larvae) were sampled from 15 sites in Makkah city during and post the 2016 Hajj and identified to species by morphological keys. Mosquitos were pooled according to date of collection, location, and species. A Pan-Flaviviruses RT-PCR assay that enables identification of 51 flaviviruses species and three tentative species was used to detect flavivirus RNA directly from mosquito homogenates. Between the 10 September and 6 October 2016, 9412 female mosquitos were collected. Of these, 81.3% were Aedes aegypti, 18.6% were Culex species, and 0.1% were Anopheles species. Of the total 493 mosquito pools generated, 242 (49%) were positive by the Pan-Flaviviruses primer set. Sequence analysis revealed that none of the mosquitos carried a pathogenic flavivirus, including ZIKV, but were infected with a novel insect-specific flavivirus. We found no pathogenic flaviviruses circulating in Makkah city during and post the 2016 Hajj and no evidence of introduction of ZIKV through the pilgrimage. Enhanced vector-borne diseases surveillance, prevention, and control are crucial in KSA especially during international mass gatherings such as the annual Hajj to prevent outbreaks and the spread of viruses with epidemic and pandemic potentials.

Potential for Seasonal Lassa Fever Case Exportation from Nigeria

The largest epidemic of Lassa fever in recent history occurred in Nigeria in 2018. We assessed the potential for cases of Lassa fever originating in Nigeria to arrive at international destinations via air travel using a probabilistic model. We estimated no exported cases in 62% of 1,000 model simulations. In 30% of simulations, a single exported case was projected. Greater than 40% of outbound travelers from Nigeria arrived in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Ghana, placing these countries at greatest risk for receiving an exported case. There was a wide range in the capacity of highly connected countries to respond to infectious disease threats, as measured by the Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index. Although we quantified a low probability of case exportation during this outbreak, countries with the greatest connectivity to Nigeria should be alert to the potential risks of Lassa fever importation and be prepared to manage infected individuals.

A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern

INTRODUCTION

Epidemic forecasting and prediction tools have the potential to provide actionable information in the midst of emerging epidemics. While numerous predictive studies were published during the 2016-2017 Zika Virus (ZIKV) pandemic, it remains unknown how timely, reproducible, and actionable the information produced by these studies was.

METHODS

To improve the functional use of mathematical modeling in support of future infectious disease outbreaks, we conducted a systematic review of all ZIKV prediction studies published during the recent ZIKV pandemic using the PRISMA guidelines. Using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and grey literature review, we identified studies that forecasted, predicted, or simulated ecological or epidemiological phenomena related to the Zika pandemic that were published as of March 01, 2017. Eligible studies underwent evaluation of objectives, data sources, methods, timeliness, reproducibility, accessibility, and clarity by independent reviewers.

RESULTS

2034 studies were identified, of which n = 73 met the eligibility criteria. Spatial spread, R0 (basic reproductive number), and epidemic dynamics were most commonly predicted, with few studies predicting Guillain-Barré Syndrome burden (4%), sexual transmission risk (4%), and intervention impact (4%). Most studies specifically examined populations in the Americas (52%), with few African-specific studies (4%). Case count (67%), vector (41%), and demographic data (37%) were the most common data sources. Real-time internet data and pathogen genomic information were used in 7% and 0% of studies, respectively, and social science and behavioral data were typically absent in modeling efforts. Deterministic models were favored over stochastic approaches. Forty percent of studies made model data entirely available, 29% provided all relevant model code, 43% presented uncertainty in all predictions, and 54% provided sufficient methodological detail to allow complete reproducibility. Fifty-one percent of predictions were published after the epidemic peak in the Americas. While the use of preprints improved the accessibility of ZIKV predictions by a median of 119 days sooner than journal publication dates, they were used in only 30% of studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Many ZIKV predictions were published during the 2016-2017 pandemic. The accessibility, reproducibility, timeliness, and incorporation of uncertainty in these published predictions varied and indicates there is substantial room for improvement. To enhance the utility of analytical tools for outbreak response it is essential to improve the sharing of model data, code, and preprints for future outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics.

Countries at risk of importation of chikungunya virus cases from Southern Thailand: A modeling study

Southern Thailand has been experiencing a large chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreak since October 2018. Given the magnitude and duration of the outbreak and its location in a popular tourist destination, we sought to determine international case exportation risk and identify countries at greatest risk of receiving travel-associated imported CHIKV cases. We used a probabilistic model to estimate the expected number of exported cases from Southern Thailand between October 2018 and April 2019. The model incorporated data on CHIKV natural history, infection rates in Southern Thailand, average length of stay for tourists, and international outbound air passenger numbers from the outbreak area. For countries highly connected to Southern Thailand by air travel, we ran 1000 simulations to estimate the expected number of imported cases. We also identified destination countries with conditions suitable for autochthonous CHIKV transmission. Over the outbreak period, we estimated that an average of 125 (95% credible interval (CrI): 102–149) cases would be exported from Southern Thailand to international destinations via air travel. China was projected to receive the most cases (43, 95% CrI: 30–56), followed by Singapore (7, 95% CrI: 2–12) and Malaysia (5, 95% CrI: 1–10). Twenty-three countries were projected to receive at least one imported case, and 64% of these countries had one or more regions that could potentially support autochthonous CHIKV transmission. The overall risk of international exportation of CHIKV cases associated with the outbreak is Southern Thailand is high. Our model projections are consistent with recent reports of CHIKV in travelers returning from the region. Countries should be alert to the possibility of CHIKV infection in returning travelers, particularly in regions where autochthonous transmission is possible.

Point of care testing for infectious diseases

Infectious diseases are caused by pathogenic microorganisms and can be transmitted between individuals and populations thus threatening the general public health and potentially the economy. Efficient diagnostic tools are needed to provide accurate and timely guidance for case identification, transmission disruption and appropriate treatment administration. Point of care (POC) tests provide actionable results near the patient and thereby serve as a personal "radar". In this review, we review clinical needs for POC testing for several major pathogens, including malaria parasites, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), human papillomavirus (HPV), dengue, Ebola and Zika viruses and Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB). We compare different molecular approaches, including pathogen nucleic acid and protein, circulating microRNA and antibodies, used in the POC tests. Finally, we review recent advances in novel POC technologies focusing on microfluidic and plasmonic-based approaches.

Health preparedness plan for dengue detection during the 2020 summer Olympic and Paralympic games in Tokyo

Background

Participants in mass gathering events are at risk of acquiring imported and locally endemic infectious diseases. The 2014 dengue outbreak in Tokyo gathered attention since it was the first time in 70 years for Japan to experience an autochthonous transmission. Preparation for emerging infectious threats is essential even in places where these outbreaks have been largely unknown. The aim of this study is to identify strategies for early detection and prevention of dengue infection during the 2020 summer Olympics and Paralympics in Tokyo.

Methodology/Principal findings

We modified and adapted the failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) methodology, generally used in industrial manufacturing, to examine the current controls for dengue detection and assessment. Information on existing controls were obtained from publicly available resources. Our analysis revealed that the national infectious disease control system to detect dengue in Japan is robust. However, in the case of large assemblies of international visitors for special events when the spread of communicable and vector-borne diseases increases, there are three main gaps that could be reinforced. First, cyclical training or a certification program on tropical disease management is warranted for physicians, especially those working in non-infectious disease-designated hospitals or clinics. Second, multi-language communication methods need to be strengthened especially in the health and hospitality sector. Third, owners of accommodations should consider incorporating a formal tropical disease-training program for their staff members and have a contingency plan for infectious disease-suspected travelers.

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings may facilitate physicians and public health officials where new controls would be beneficial for the 2020 summer Olympics and Paralympics. The FMEA framework has the potential to be applied to other infectious diseases, not just dengue.

Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease that is most prevalent among the emerging arboviruses. Most patients recover from dengue without complications, but a small portion of cases may progress to severe dengue which carries a high mortality rate if left untreated. In 2014, a dengue outbreak unexpectedly occurred in Tokyo, which was the first time in 70 years for Japan to experience an autochthonous transmission. Thus, preparation for dengue and other emerging infectious threats is essential even in places where these outbreaks have been largely unknown. Tokyo will be hosting the Olympic and Paralympic games in 2020, and interventions are warranted to mitigate the risks. We modified and adapted the failure mode effect analysis (FMEA) methodology to test the vulnerability and resiliency of the current controls. Although the FMEA methodology is generally used in industrial manufacturing, it has the potential to be utilized for health preparedness for other infectious diseases as well. Our analysis identifies three strategies to reinforce early detection of dengue infection and prevent further transmission during the Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Factors contributing to and strategies to combat emerging arboviruses

Less than half a century ago infectious diseases appeared to be destined to be extinguished via as a culmination of medical triumphs. As focus turned towards combating non-communicable diseases, emerging and re-emerging diseases (EIDs) have bloomed from those ashes. Five epidemic mosquito-borne arboviruses (Yellow Fever virus (YFV), Dengue virus, West Nile virus, Chikungunya virus, and Zika virus) have emerged in the recent past. Arboviruses are of the utmost importance with respect to EIDs due to intensive growth of globalisation, arthropod urban fitness/adaption, and environmental changes. We focus on recent outbreaks of the arthropod borne viruses (arboviruses) Zika virus and YFV. Factors contributing to the blossoming of EIDs (environmental, globalisation, and urbanisation) and combating strategies (surveillance, containment, and prevention) will be discussed. Specifically, Zika virus and YFV will be used in the context of these factors and strategies. YFV is discussed in detail as it pertains to these factors and strategies in the United States (US), 2017 Brazil Outbreak, 2016 Africa Outbreak, and global risk. Vigilance is needed to focus on, prevent, and control the current and next arbovirus EIDs.

The Zika Virus Outbreak in Brazil: Knowledge Gaps and Challenges for Risk Reduction

We analyzed uncertainties and complexities of the Zika virus outbreak in Brazil, and we discuss risk reduction for future emergencies. We present the public health situation in Brazil and concurrent determinants of the epidemic and the knowledge gaps that persist despite building evidence from research, making public health decisions difficult. Brazil has adopted active measures, but producing desired outcomes may be uncertain because of partial or unavailable information. Reducing population group vulnerabilities and acting on environmental issues are medium- to long-term measures. Simultaneously dealing with information gaps, uncontrolled disease spread, and vulnerabilities is a new risk scenario and must be approached decisively to face emerging biothreats.

Risk of Globalization of the Disease in Europe

Risk of dissemination of ZIKV disease is based on multiple factors, including environmental (climate, socioeconomically, deforestation or industrialization) and travel/traveller factors. Both the disease (viremic travellers) and vector movement to mosquito-free area contributes to the introduction and establishment of autochthonous ZIKV transmission. Mass gathering events can contribute to magnify transmission due to close crowd life in a confined area. Also, multitudinary events can promote the introduction of an infectious disease to a previously naïve area when returning home. Although mathematical models estimate a low risk for introduction of ZIKV in Europe, specific European regions (mainly Portuguese Island of Madeira) account with suitable and efficient vector and opportune climate conditions to harbour the disease. Clinicians should be aware to enable early detection of autochthonous ZIKV cases. International and local guidelines can help clinicians on how to handle suspicious cases, how to confirm the infection and how to report suspected and confirmed cases. In case of autochthonous ZIKV detection, public authorities should perform surveillance and provide adequate resources to sustain enhanced mosquito control.

Navigating the Zika panic

The epidemics of Ebola virus in West Africa and Zika virus in America highlight how viruses can explosively emerge into new territories. These epidemics also exposed how unprepared we are to handle infectious disease emergencies. This is also true when we consider hypothesized new clinical features of infection, such as the associations between Zika virus infection and severe neurological disease, including microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome. On the surface, these pathologies appear to be new features of Zika virus infection, however, causal relationships have not yet been established. Decades of limited Zika virus research are making us scramble to determine the true drivers behind the epidemic, often at the expense of over-speculation without credible evidence. Here we review the literature and find no conclusive evidence at this time for significant biological differences between the American Zika virus strains and those circulating elsewhere. Rather, the epidemic scale in the Americas may be facilitated by an abnormally warm climate, dense human and mosquito populations, and previous exposure to other viruses. Severe disease associated with Zika virus may therefore not be a new trait for the virus, rather it may have been overlooked due to previously small outbreaks. Much of the recent panic regarding Zika virus has been about the Olympics in Brazil. We do not find any substantial evidence that the Olympics will result in a significant number of new Zika virus infections (~10 predicted) or that the Olympics will promote further epidemic spread over what is already expected. The Zika virus epidemic in the Americas is a serious situation and decisions based on solid scientific evidence - not hyped media speculations - are required for effective outbreak response.