Potential impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis for female sex workers and men who have sex with men in Bangalore, India: a mathematical modelling study

Social disparities on PrEP use and awareness among sexual and gender minorities using smartphones in India

Background

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a safe and effective HIV prevention strategy. However, in countries such as India where PrEP is driven by the private healthcare system and there is no centralized reporting, it is unknown which populations benefit from PrEP and which populations are being left behind.

Objectives

We examined and characterized PrEP use and awareness among the sexual and gender minorities using smartphones in India and found measures of association of PrEP use.

Design

This is a cross-sectional study design.

Methods

We used Grindr-a widely used geosocial mobile application-to conduct a national cross-sectional survey in India, including respondents who were 18 years or older and reported sex with men (those who identified as cis-gender females were excluded). We examined overall PrEP awareness and PrEP use, then calculated adjusted prevalence odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals to understand PrEP use correlation with socio-behavioral factors.

Results

Out of the total of 3116 eligible participants, 30.3% (N = 947) were aware of PrEP and 3.1% (N = 97) reported current PrEP use. Our multivariate regression model found that there was a statistically significant association of PrEP use with higher income, being employed, preferred language as English for survey, relationship status as single, and use of party drugs. At the same time, there was a statistically significant association of PrEP awareness with age group, having higher education as a graduate or above, higher income, use of party drugs, and multiple sexual partners.

Conclusion

We found overall low awareness and low PrEP use in our cross-sectional sample. PrEP use and awareness were higher among those who belonged to higher-income groups. Including PrEP in existing programmatic interventions by government and NGOs may contribute to PrEP scale-up, which is urgent to stop the HIV epidemic in India.

Efficacy estimates of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention in cisgender women with partial adherence

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir (TFV) disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine administered orally daily is effective in preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition in both men and women with sufficient adherence; however, the adherence-efficacy relationship in cisgender women has not been well established. We calculated the adherence-efficacy curve for cisgender women by using HIV incidence and plasma TFV concentration data from three trials (FEM-PrEP, VOICE and Partners PrEP). We imputed TFV diphosphate (TFV-DP) concentrations, a measure of long-term adherence, from TFV quantification by using data from the HIV Prevention Trials Network 082 study, which measured both TFV-DP and TFV concentrations. Two, four and seven pills per week reduced HIV incidence by 59.3% (95% credible interval (CrI) 29.9-95.8%), 83.8% (95% CI 51.7-99.8%) and 95.9% (95% CI 72.6-100%), respectively. Our adherence-efficacy curve can be validated and updated by HIV prevention studies that directly measure TFV-DP concentrations. The curve suggests that high adherence confers high protection in cisgender women. However, the lower efficacy with partial adherence highlights the need for new PrEP products and interventions to increase adherence.

Infectious Disease Modelling of HIV Prevention Interventions: A Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis of Compartmental Models

BACKGROUND

The HIV epidemic remains a major public health problem. Critical to transmission control are HIV prevention strategies with new interventions continuing to be developed. Mathematical models are important for understanding the potential impact of these interventions and supporting policy decisions. This systematic review aims to answer the following question: when a new HIV prevention intervention is being considered or designed, what information regarding it is necessary to include in a compartmental model to provide useful insights to policy makers? The primary objective of this review is therefore to assess suitability of current compartmental HIV prevention models for informing policy development.

METHODS

Articles published in EMBASE, Medline, Econlit, and Global Health were screened. Included studies were identified using permutations of (i) HIV, (ii) pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), circumcision (both voluntary male circumcision [VMMC] and early-infant male circumcision [EIMC]), and vaccination, and (iii) modelling. Data extraction focused on study design, model structure, and intervention incorporation into models. Article quality was assessed using the TRACE (TRAnsparent and Comprehensive Ecological modelling documentation) criteria for mathematical models.

RESULTS

Of 837 articles screened, 48 articles were included in the review, with 32 unique mathematical models identified. The substantial majority of studies included PrEP (83%), whilst fewer modelled circumcision (54%), and only a few focussed on vaccination (10%). Data evaluation, implementation verification, and model output corroboration were identified as areas of poorer model quality. Parameters commonly included in the mathematical models were intervention uptake and effectiveness, with additional intervention-specific common parameters identified. We identified key modelling gaps; critically, models insufficiently incorporate multiple interventions acting simultaneously. Additionally, population subgroups were generally poorly represented-with future models requiring improved incorporation of ethnicity and sexual risk group stratification-and many models contained inappropriate data in parameterisation which will affect output accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

This review identified gaps in compartmental models to date and suggests areas of improvement for models focusing on new prevention interventions. Resolution of such gaps within future models will ensure greater robustness and transparency, and enable more accurate assessment of the impact that new interventions may have, thereby providing more meaningful guidance to policy makers.

A scoping review of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, and intersex (LGBTQI+) people's health in India

Amid incremental progress in establishing an enabling legal and policy environment for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer-identified people, and people with intersex variations (LGBTQI+) in India, evidence gaps on LGBTQI+ health are of increasing concern. To that end, we conducted a scoping review to map and synthesize the current evidence base, identify research gaps, and provide recommendations for future research. We conducted a scoping review using the Joanna Briggs Institute methodology. We systematically searched 14 databases to identify peer-reviewed journal articles published in English language between January 1, 2010 and November 20, 2021, that reported empirical qualitative, quantitative or mixed methods data on LGBTQI+ people's health in India. Out of 3,003 results in total, we identified 177 eligible articles; 62% used quantitative, 31% qualitative, and 7% mixed methods. The majority (55%) focused on gay and other men who have sex with men (MSM), 16% transgender women, and 14% both of these populations; 4% focused on lesbian and bisexual women, and 2% on transmasculine people. Overall, studies reported high prevalence of HIV and sexually transmitted infections; multilevel risk factors for HIV; high levels of mental health burden linked to stigma, discrimination, and violence victimization; and non-availability of gender-affirmative medical care in government hospitals. Few longitudinal studies and intervention studies were identified. Findings suggest that LGBTQI+ health research in India needs to move beyond the predominant focus on HIV, and gay men/MSM and transgender women, to include mental health and non-communicable diseases, and individuals across the LGBTQI+ spectrum. Future research should build on largely descriptive studies to include explanatory and intervention studies, beyond urban to rural sites, and examine healthcare and service needs among LGBTQI+ people across the life course. Increased Indian government funding for LGBTQI+ health research, including dedicated support and training for early career researchers, is crucial to building a comprehensive and sustainable evidence base to inform targeted health policies and programs moving forward.

Acceptability of multiple modalities of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among female sex workers in Tanzania: a mixed-methods study

OBJECTIVES

Modalities of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention offer options to women at high risk including female sex workers (FSW). This study aimed to explore FSW's acceptability and preferences for oral pills, long-acting (LA) injectable and vaginal ring PrEP.

DESIGN

Sequential, explanatory, mixed methods.

SETTING

Iringa, Tanzania.

PARTICIPANTS

FSW aged above 18 were recruited from sex work venues using time-location sampling (n=496); HIV-uninfected (n=293) were included in this analysis. Subsequently, survey participants were recruited for in-depth interviews (n=10) and two focus group discussions (n=20).

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

(1) Acceptability of PrEP (Do you personally think it would be worth it to you to take ART if it could prevent HIV?: yes/no) and (2) preference for LA injectable versus oral pills (If you personally were going to take ART to prevent HIV infection, would you prefer to take it in the form of a daily pill or an injection once every 3 months? Injection/pill).

RESULTS

Participants were (92%) unaware of PrEP but 58% thought it would be worth it to personally take PrEP. Acceptability of PrEP was significantly associated with higher social cohesion (aOR 2.12; 95% CI 1.29 to 3.50) and STI symptoms in the past 6 months (aOR 2.52; 95% CI 1.38 to 4.62). Most (88%) preferred LA vs oral PrEP. Qualitative findings revealed generally positive reactions to all types of PrEP, and they were viewed as a welcome backup to condoms. Participants had concerns about pills (burden of daily use, stigma from clients), and the vaginal ring (fear of client noticing and becoming suspicious, fear of infertility) and overall preferred LA-PrEP (less frequent use, easy to hide, belief in higher efficacy).

CONCLUSIONS

Offering multiple formulations of PrEP within the context of community-driven HIV prevention interventions among FSW may facilitate increased uptake and adherence. LA injectable PrEP may be a particularly preferred formulation among FSW.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02281578.

Understanding issues around use of oral pre exposure prophylaxis among female sex workers in India

BACKGROUND

Empowering female sex workers (FSWs) through women controlled HIV prevention option has been in focus globally. FSWs are important target for oral pre exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). A multi-centric qualitative study was conducted to explore the FSWs' willingness to use oral PrEP in India.

METHODS

Seventy three interviews and 02 focus group discussions were conducted at 3 high HIV prevalent states in India during 2013-14. Study explored issues around willingness to use oral PrEP. The study was approved by the respective institutional ethics committee of the study sites. Thematic analysis using grounded theory approach was used to analyze the data in N-VIVO version 8.0.

RESULTS

Thematic analysis showed events of forced condom-less sex. FSWs believed that oral PrEP could provide independence, financial gains, and privacy and therefore hoped to use it as an alternative to male condom. However, any impact on physical/ aesthetic attributes and reproductive system were not acceptable and could become a barrier. Provider initiated oral PrEP was not preferred. Providers voiced safety monitoring concerns. Adherence emerged as a challenge because of: (1) alcohol use; (2) taking PrEP tablet each day being boring; (3) Stigma because Oral PrEP is ARV based. Alcohol use and dread of repetitive dose brings forth the need for long acting oral PrEP.

CONCLUSION

Oral PrEP is acceptable among FSWs; it should be rolled out alongside strong messages on STI protection and PrEP as compliment to condoms. PrEP roll out requires educating communities about HIV treatment versus prevention. Long-acting oral PrEP could address both 'boredom' and alcoholism and sustain adherence.

Modelling the effect of market forces on the impact of introducing human immunodeficiency virus pre-exposure prophylaxis among female sex workers

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to prevent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) enables female sex workers (FSWs) to protect themselves from HIV without relying on clients using condoms. Yet, because PrEP reduces HIV risk, financial incentives to not use condoms may lead to risk compensation: reductions in condom use and/or increases in commercial sex, and may reduce the price of unprotected sex. In this analysis, we integrate market forces into a dynamic HIV transmission model to assess how risk compensation could change the impact of PrEP among FSWs and clients. We parameterise how sexual behavior may change with PrEP use among FSWs using stated preference data combined with economic theory. Our projections suggest the impact of PrEP is sensitive to risk compensatory behaviors driven by changes in the economics of sex work. Condom substitution could reduce the impact of PrEP on HIV incidence by 55%, while increases in the frequency of commercial sex to counter decreases in the price charged for unprotected sex among PrEP users could entirely mitigate the impact of PrEP. Accounting for competition between PrEP users and nonusers exacerbates this further. Alternative scenarios where increases in unprotected sex among PrEP users are balanced by decreases in non-PrEP users have the opposite effect, resulting in PrEP having much greater impact. Intervention studies need to determine how HIV prevention products may change the economics of sex work and provision of unprotected sex to enable a better understanding of their impact.

Successful integration of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis into a community-based HIV prevention program for female sex workers in Kolkata, India

We assessed the impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the context of a community-based HIV program among female sex workers (FSWs) in Kolkata, India. This was an open-label, uncontrolled demonstration trial. HIV seronegative FSWs over 18 years were eligible. Participants were administered daily tenofovir/emtricitabine (TDF-FTC) with follow-up visits at months 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 15. Drug adherence was monitored by self-report, and a random subset of participants underwent plasma TDF testing. 843 women were screened and 678 enrolled and started on PrEP. Seventy-nine women (11%) did not complete all scheduled visits: four women died of reasons unrelated to PrEP and 75 withdrew, for a 15-month retention rate of 89%. Self-reported daily adherence was over 70%. Among those tested for TDF, the percentage of women whose level reached ≥40 ng/mL was 65% by their final visit. There were no HIV seroconversions, and no evidence of significant changes in sexual behavior. This study demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of PrEP for FSWs in Kolkata, with very high levels of adherence to PrEP and no HIV seroconversions. The integration of PrEP into an existing community-based HIV prevention program ensured community support and facilitated adherence.

A rapid review of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV in the Asia-Pacific region: recommendations for scale up and future directions

Decline in new HIV infections in the Asia-Pacific region (APAC) continues to be slow, emphasising the importance of scaling up new HIV prevention strategies, such as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). To help inform PrEP rollout in APAC, we conducted a rapid review of published literature on PubMed from 2015 to 2020, to assess feasibility, implementation strategies, cost-effectiveness, and availability of national policies and guidelines; for the latter, we also did an expanded Internet search. This review focussed on nine countries contributing >95% of new infections in this region. A total of 36 PrEP-related studies conducted among men who have sex with men, female sex workers, and transgender women were included, of which 29 were quantitative, six were qualitative and one was a mixed-method study. Most of the studies have addressed the availability and acceptability of PrEP, whereas cost-effectiveness of any approach was assessed by limited studies. Limited published information was available about national PrEP policies and guidelines; of the selected nine countries, five have adopted the recommended World Health Organization PrEP policy of which four have integrated it in their national HIV response. HIV risk perception concerns about safety, side-effects, stigma, and affordability were major challenges to PrEP acceptance. Community-based implementation has the potential to address these. Limited evidence suggested merging PrEP implementation with ongoing targeted intervention and treatment programs could be a cost-effective approach. To stem the epidemic, newer effective prevention strategies, like PrEP, should be urgently adopted within the context of combination HIV prevention approaches.

Using data from 'visible' populations to estimate the size and importance of 'hidden' populations in an epidemic: A modelling technique

We used reported behavioural data from cisgender men who have sex with men and transgender women (MSM/TGW) in Bangalore, mainly collected from 'hot-spot' locations that attract MSM/TGW, to illustrate a technique to deal with potential issues with the representativeness of this sample. A deterministic dynamic model of HIV transmission was developed, incorporating three subgroups of MSM/TGW, grouped according to their reported predominant sexual role (insertive, receptive or versatile). Using mathematical modelling and data triangulation for 'balancing' numbers of partners and role preferences, we compared three different approaches to determine if our technique could be useful for inferring characteristics of a more 'hidden' insertive MSM subpopulation, and explored their potential importance for the HIV epidemic. Projections for 2009 across all three approaches suggest that HIV prevalence among insertive MSM was likely to be less than half that recorded in the surveys (4.5-6.5% versus 13.1%), but that the relative size of this subgroup was over four times larger (61-69% of all MSM/TGW versus 15%). We infer that the insertive MSM accounted for 10-20% of all prevalent HIV infections among urban males aged 15-49. Mathematical modelling can be used with data on 'visible' MSM/TGW to provide insights into the characteristics of 'hidden' MSM. A greater understanding of the sexual behaviour of all MSM/TGW is important for effective HIV programming. More broadly, a hidden subgroup with a lower infectious disease prevalence than more visible subgroups, has the potential to contain more infections, if the hidden subgroup is considerably larger in size.

HIV prevention is not all about HIV - using a discrete choice experiment among women to model how the uptake and effectiveness of HIV prevention products may also rely on pregnancy and STI protection

INTRODUCTION

In sub-Saharan Africa, considerable HIV-burden exists among women. Anti-retroviral (ARV) based prevention products could decrease this burden, and their uptake could be increased if they also protect against pregnancy and sexually transmitted infections (STI).

METHODS

A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was undertaken in South Africa (2015) through a household survey of adult females (n = 158) and adolescent girls (n = 204) who self-reported HIV-negative status. The DCE was used to project the uptake (percentage using product) of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), vaginal rings, and injectable long-lasting ARV agents among these women, and how uptake could depend on whether these products protect against pregnancy or STI acquisition. Uptake estimates were used to model how each product could decrease a women's HIV acquisition risk.

RESULTS

In adolescent women, there will be limited uptake (< 6% for any product) and impact (< 4% decrease in HIV acquisition risk) of new products unless they provide pregnancy protection, which could quadruple use and impact. Adult women have weaker preference for pregnancy protection, with moderate use (< 17% for each) and impact (< 14 percentage point decrease) if they only provide HIV protection. All women had highest preference for injectable ARVs, with oral PrEP having high preference if injectable ARVs are not available. Adult women will use the ring, but adolescent women will not. Importantly, even with three additional prevention products, all providing pregnancy and STI protection, > 14% of women will remain unprotected and > 31% of the baseline acquisition risk will remain.

CONCLUSIONS

Incorporating multiple prevention components into new ARV-based prevention products may increase their uptake and impact among women.

The Ashodaya PrEP project: Lessons and implications for scaling up PrEP from a community-led demonstration project among female sex workers in Mysore, India

To inform PrEP roll out, Ashodaya Samithi, a sex workers' collective, conducted a community-led prospective demonstration project among female sex workers in Mysore and Mandya, India. Following a community preparedness phase and pre-screening, participants were recruited for clinical screening and enrolment, provided PrEP as part of combination HIV prevention, and followed for 16 months. Adherence was measured by self-reported pill intake and by tenofovir blood level testing among a subset of participants. Of the 647 participants enrolled, 640 completed follow-up. Condom use remained stable and no HIV seroconversions occurred. Self-reported daily PrEP intake over the last month was 97.97% at the end of the study. Tenofovir blood levels >40 ng/mL (consistent with steady state dosing) were detected among 80% (n = 68/85) and 90.48% (n = 76/84) of participants at month 3 and 6, respectively. Our study holds important insights for rolling out PrEP in community settings as part of targeted HIV prevention interventions.

The cost-effectiveness of multi-purpose HIV and pregnancy prevention technologies in South Africa

Introduction

A number of antiretroviral HIV prevention products are efficacious in preventing HIV infection. However, the sexual and reproductive health needs of many women extend beyond HIV prevention, and research is ongoing to develop multi‐purpose prevention technologies (MPTs) that offer dual HIV and pregnancy protection. We do not yet know if these products will be an efficient use of constrained health resources. In this paper, we estimate the cost‐effectiveness of combinations of candidate multi‐purpose prevention technologies (MPTs), in South Africa among general population women and female sex workers (FSWs).

Methods

We combined a cost model with a static model of product impact based on incidence data in South Africa to estimate the cost‐effectiveness of five candidate co‐formulated or co‐provided MPTs: oral PrEP, intravaginal ring, injectable ARV, microbicide gel and SILCS diaphragm used in concert with gel. We accounted for the preferences of end‐users by predicting uptake using a discrete choice experiment (DCE). Product availability and protection were systematically varied in five potential rollout scenarios. The impact model estimated the number of infections averted through decreased incidence due to product use over one year. The comparator for each scenario was current levels of male condom use, while a health system perspective was used to estimate discounted lifetime treatment costs averted per HIV infection. Product benefit was estimated in disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. Benefits from contraception were incorporated through adjusting the uptake of these products based on the DCE and through estimating the costs averted from avoiding unwanted pregnancies. We explore the additional impact of STI protection through increased uptake in a sensitivity analysis.

Results

At central incidence rates, all single‐ and multi‐purpose scenarios modelled were cost‐effective among FSWs and women aged 16–24, at a governmental willingness‐to‐pay threshold of $1175/DALY averted (range: $214–$810/DALY averted among non‐dominant scenarios), however, none were cost‐effective among women aged 25–49 (minimum $1706/DALY averted). The cost‐effectiveness of products improved with additional protection from pregnancy. Estimates were sensitive to variation in incidence assumptions, but robust to other parameters.

Conclusions

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to estimate the cost‐effectiveness of a range of potential MPTs; suggesting that MPTs will be cost‐effective among higher incidence FSWs or young women, but not among lower incidence older women. More work is needed to make attractive MPTs available to potential users who could use them effectively.

Modelling the Epidemiological Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of PrEP for HIV Transmission in MSM in China

Risk of HIV infection is high in Chinese MSM, with an annual HIV incidence ranging from 3.41 to 13.7/100 person-years. Tenofovir-based PrEP is effective in preventing HIV transmission in MSM. This study evaluates the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of implementing PrEP in Chinese MSM over the next two decades. A compartmental model for HIV was used to forecast the impact of PrEP on number of infections, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted. We also provide an estimate of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and the cost per DALY averted of the intervention. Without PrEP, there will be 1.1-3.0 million new infections and 0.7-2.3 million HIV-related deaths in the next two decades. Moderate PrEP coverage (50%) would prevent 0.17-0.32 million new HIV infections. At Truvada's current price in China, daily oral PrEP costs $46,813-52,008 per DALY averted and is not cost-effective; on-demand Truvada reduces ICER to $25,057-27,838 per DALY averted, marginally cost-effective; daily generic tenofovir-based regimens further reduce ICER to $3675-8963, wholly cost-effective. The cost of daily oral Truvada PrEP regimen would need to be reduced by half to achieve cost-effectiveness and realize the public health good of preventing hundreds of thousands of HIV infections among MSM in China.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for MSM in low HIV incidence places: should high risk individuals be targeted?

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) targeting high-risk men who have sex with men (MSM) has been shown to be a cost-effective HIV control measure. However, the approach could be a challenge in low HIV incidence places with a low proportion of high-risk MSM. To examine the impact of PrEP in such setting in Asia, we developed an epidemic model and conducted cost-effectiveness analysis using empirical multicentre clinical and HIV sequence data from HIV-infected MSM in Hong Kong, in conjunction with behavioural data of local MSM. Without PrEP, the HIV incidence (per 100 person-years) would increase from 1.1 to 1.6 between 2011 and 2021. PrEP could avert 3–63% of total new infections in a five-year period (2017–2021), the variability of which depends on the implementation strategies and combination with test-and-treat. However, under current market drug price in 2016, the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained (QALYG) of PrEP (USD1583136/QALYG) is almost 3 times higher than test-and-treat intervention alone (USD396874/QALYG). Assuming 93% fall of PrEP drug price and in combination with test-and-treat, putting 30% of MSM on non-targeting PrEP would be more feasible, cost-effective (USD268915/QALYG), and could avert more new infections (40%). PrEP could contribute to HIV epidemic control in a low incidence place.

Estimating the contribution of key populations towards the spread of HIV in Dakar, Senegal

INTRODUCTION

Key populations including female sex workers (FSW) and men who have sex with men (MSM) bear a disproportionate burden of HIV. However, the role of focusing prevention efforts on these groups for reducing a country's HIV epidemic is debated. We estimate the extent to which HIV transmission among FSW and MSM contributes to overall HIV transmission in Dakar, Senegal, using a dynamic assessment of the population attributable fraction (PAF).

METHODS

A dynamic transmission model of HIV among FSW, their clients, MSM and the lower-risk adult population was parameterized and calibrated within a Bayesian framework using setting-specific demographic, behavioural, HIV epidemiological and antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage data for 1985 to 2015. We used the model to estimate the 10-year PAF of commercial sex between FSW and their clients, and sex between men, to overall HIV transmission (defined as the percentage of new infections prevented when these modes of transmission are removed). In addition, we estimated the prevention benefits associated with historical increases in condom use and ART uptake, and impact of further increases in prevention and treatment.

RESULTS

The model projections suggest that unprotected sex between men contributed to 42% (2.5 to 97.5th percentile range 24 to 59%) of transmissions between 1995 and 2005, increasing to 64% (37 to 79%) from 2015 to 2025. The 10-year PAF of commercial sex is smaller, diminishing from 21% (7 to 39%) in 1995 to 14% (5 to 35%) in 2015. Without ART, 49% (32 to 71%) more HIV infections would have occurred since 2000, when ART was initiated, whereas without condom use since 1985, 67% (27 to 179%) more HIV infections would have occurred, and the overall HIV prevalence would have been 60% (29 to 211%) greater than what it is now. Further large decreases in HIV incidence (68%) can be achieved by scaling up ART in MSM to 74% coverage and reducing their susceptibility to HIV by two-thirds through any prevention modality.

CONCLUSIONS

Unprotected sex between men may be an important contributor to HIV transmission in Dakar, due to suboptimal coverage of evidence-informed interventions. Although existing interventions have effectively reduced HIV transmission among adults, it is crucial that further strategies address the unmet need among MSM.