Data quantity is more important than its spatial bias for predictive species distribution modelling

Dam inundation duration as a dominant constraint on riparian vegetation recovery

The identification of limiting factors is essential for the ecological restoration of riparian ecosystems degraded by the damming of rivers, but remains unclear. Here, we quantitatively assessed the relative importance of environmental factors and revealed the main limiting factors for riparian vegetation restoration and their influencing mechanisms, using riparian plant and environmental data of seven large reservoirs in southwest China. We found that inundation duration had a significantly greater effect on riparian vegetation distribution, cover and diversity than environmental factors such as inundation depth, rainfall, humidity, temperature, sunshine hours, aspect, slope, surface relief, soil pH, available nitrogen (AN), available phosphorus (AP), and available potassium (AK); vegetation cover, species richness, complexity and dominance were highly significantly negatively correlated with inundation duration (p < 0.01); inundation for 5 months is close to the tolerance limit of most plants and poses a significant limiting effect on the vegetation restoration in the reservoir riparian. Therefore, the inundation duration should be highlighted in riparian vegetation restoration. Meanwhile, incorporating the riparian inundation into the river ecological scheduling objectives to shorten the inundation duration and thus radically alleviate the limitation is a new opportunity for vegetation restoration in the reservoir riparian.

Opening the floodgates for invasion-modelling the distribution dynamics of invasive alien fishes in India

Invasive alien species have become the second major threat to biodiversity affecting all three major ecosystems (terrestrial, marine, and freshwater). Increasing drivers such as habitat destruction, expanding horticulture and aquaculture industries, and global pet and food trade have created pathways for exotic species to be introduced leading to severe impacts on recipient ecosystems. Although relatively less studied than terrestrial ecosystems, freshwater ecosystems are highly susceptible to biological invasions. In India, there has been a noticeable increase in the introduction of alien fish species in freshwater environments. In the current study, we aimed to understand how climate change can affect the dynamics of the biological invasion of invasive alien fishes in India. We also evaluated the river-linking project's impact on the homogenization of biota in Indian freshwater bodies. We used species occurrence records with selected environmental variables to assess vulnerable locations for current and future biological invasion using species distribution models. Our study has identified and mapped the vulnerable regions to invasion in India. Our research indicates that the interlinking of rivers connects susceptible regions housing endangered fish species with invasive hotspots. Invasive alien fishes from the source basin may invade vulnerable basins and compete with the native species. Based on the results, we discuss some of the key areas for the management of these invasive alien species in the freshwater ecosystems.

Modeling present and future distribution of plankton populations in a coastal upwelling zone: the copepod Calanus chilensis as a study case

Predicting species distribution in the ocean has become a crucial task to assess marine ecosystem responses to ongoing climate change. In the Humboldt Current System (HCS), the endemic copepod Calanus chilensis is one of the key species bioindicator of productivity and water masses. Here we modeled the geographic distribution of Calanus chilensis for two bathymetric ranges, 0-200 and 200-400 m. For the 0-200 m layer, we used the Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) method, whereas, for the 200-400 m layer, we used the Ensembles of Small Models (ESMs) method and then projected the models into two future scenarios to assess changes in geographic distribution patterns. The models were evaluated using the multi-metric approach. We identified that chlorophyll-a (0.34), Mixed Layer Depth (0.302) and salinity (0.36) explained the distribution of C. chilensis. The geographic prediction of the BART model revealed a continuous distribution from Ecuador to the southernmost area of South America for the 0-200 m depth range, whereas the ESM model indicated a discontinuous distribution with greater suitability for the coast of Chile for the 200-400 m depth range. A reduction of the distribution range of C. chilensis is projected in the future. Our study suggests that the distribution of C. chilensis is conditioned by productivity and mesoscale processes, with both processes closely related to upwelling intensity. These models serve as a tool for proposing indicators of changes in the ocean. We further propose that the species C. chilensis is a high productivity and low salinity indicator at the HCS. We recommend further examining multiple spatial and temporal scales for stronger inference.

Radical pruning of distribution data may result in loss of knowledge (Response to Larsen & Shirey)

Larsen & Shirey (2020) criticised our analysis of latitudinal changes in butterfly phenology on the grounds of improper data management. We admit some imprecisions, but show that stringent reanalyses did not change the overall results. We also show that unreasonable treatment of data may result in critical information loss.