Phylogenetic climatic niche conservatism and evolution of climatic suitability in Neotropical Angraecinae (Vandeae, Orchidaceae) and their closest African relatives

Phenotypic plasticity in tropical butterflies is linked to climatic seasonality on a macroevolutionary scale

Phenotypic plasticity can be adaptive in fluctuating environments by providing rapid environment-phenotype matching and this applies particularly in seasonal environments. African Bicyclus butterflies have repeatedly colonized seasonal savannahs from ancestral forests around the late Miocene, and many species now exhibit seasonal polyphenism. On a macroevolutionary scale, it can be expected that savannah species will exhibit higher plasticity because of experiencing stronger environmental seasonality than forest species. We quantified seasonality using environmental niche modeling and surveyed the degree of plasticity in a key wing pattern element (eyespot size) using museum specimens. We showed that species occurring in highly seasonal environments display strong plasticity, while species in less seasonal or aseasonal environments exhibit surprisingly variable degrees of plasticity, including strong to no plasticity. Furthermore, eyespot size plasticity has a moderate phylogenetic signal and the ancestral Bicyclus likely exhibited some degree of plasticity. We propose hypotheses to explain the range of plasticity patterns seen in less seasonal environments and generate testable predictions for the evolution of plasticity in Bicyclus. Our study provides one of the most compelling cases showing links between seasonality and phenotypic plasticity on a macroevolutionary scale and the potential role of plasticity in facilitating the colonization of novel environments.

Isotopic niches do not follow the expectations of niche conservatism in the bird genus Cinclodes

Phenotypic traits are expected to be more similar among closely related species than among species that diverged long ago (all else being equal). This pattern, known as phylogenetic niche conservatism, also applies to traits that are important to determine the niche of species. To test this hypothesis on ecological niches, we analysed isotopic data from 254 museum study skins from 12 of the 16 species of the bird genus Cinclodes and measured stable isotope ratios for four different elements: carbon, nitrogen, hydrogen and oxygen. We find that all traits, measured individually, or as a composite measurement, lack any phylogenetic signal, which in turn suggests a high level of lability in ecological niches. We compared these metrics to the measurements of morphological traits in the same genus and found that isotopic niches are uniquely evolutionarily labile compared to other traits. Our results suggest that, in Cinclodes, the realized niche evolves much faster than expected by the constraints of phylogenetic history and poses the question of whether this is a general pattern across the tree of life.

Niche conservatism and evolution of climatic tolerance in the Neotropical orchid genera Sobralia and Brasolia (Orchidaceae)

Sobralia and Brasolia form a large complex of Neotropical Orchidaceae. Although the molecular and morphological studies allowed to increase the rate of work on the modern classification of the taxa, they still require the attention as remaining without complete revision. The niche similarity analysis between representatives of Sobralia and recently segregated from this taxon—genus Brasolia is presented. The ecological tolerance evolution within the group was investigated with molecular clock analysis and phylogeny as the background. The phylogenetic analysis has confirmed the previous results and placed Brasolia representatives in a single clade with Elleanthus and Sobralia core as a separated group. The molecular clock analysis suggests that Sobralia and Brasolia are relatively young groups that evolved between 8.5 and 8 million years ago. Distribution of suitable niches of studied species is generally congruent with the known geographical ranges of particular taxa. The calculated niche overlap did not indicate any correlation between niche overlap and species phylogenetic relationships and remains low for both intra- and intergeneric relationships. The reconstruction of climatic tolerance evolution indicated that the studied species of Brasolia and Sobralia are characterized by generally similar ecological tolerance for most of the analyzed variables.

Climatic niche evolution of a widely distributed Neotropical freshwater fish clade

The role of climate in the speciation process has been documented widely in ectotherms but poorly in freshwater fishes, which represent the richest clade among vertebrates. In this study, we have evaluated the occurrence of phylogenetic niche evolution as a promoter of diversification in the herichthyines (Cichliformes: Cichlidae) clade. We used distributional and bioclimatic data, niche modelling algorithms and phylogenetic comparative methods to study patterns of climatic niche evolution in the herichthyines clade. Our results suggested that herichthyines display signals of phylogenetic niche conservatism, but also signals of niche evolution in the last 14 Myr associated with the availability of new habitats promoting ecological opportunity within the clade. We also concluded that niche conservatism is equally strong in the fundamental and realized niches, which indicates a need to evaluate the potential role of biotic interactions in the evolution of the niche in future studies.

Phylogenetic relationships and ecological niche conservatism in killifish (Profundulidae) in Mesoamerica

The family Profundulidae is a group of small-sized fish species distributed between southern Mexico and Honduras, where they are frequently the only fish representatives at higher elevations in the basins where they occur. We characterized their ecological niche using different methods and metrics drawn from niche modelling and by re-examining phylogenetic relationships of a recently published molecular phylogeny of this family to gain a better understanding of its biogeographic and evolutionary history. We assessed both lines of evidence from the perspective of niche conservatism to set a foundation for discussing hypotheses about the processes underlying the distribution and evolution of the group. In fish clades where the species composition is not clear, we examined whether niche classification could be informative to discriminate groups geographically and ecologically consistent with any of the different hypotheses of valid species. The characterization of the ecological niche was carried out using the Maxent algorithm under different parameterizations and the projection of the presence on the main components of the most relevant environmental coverage, and the niche comparison was calculated with two indices (D and I), both in environmental space and in that projected geographically. With the molecular data, a species tree was generated using the *BEAST method. The comparison of these data was calculated with an age-overlap correlation test. Based on the molecular phylogeny and on niche overlap analyses, we uncovered strong evidence to support the idea that ecologically similar species are not necessarily sister species. The correlation analysis for genetic distance and niche overlap was not significant (P > 0.05). In clades with taxonomic conflicts, we only identified Profundulus oaxacae as a geographically and ecologically distinct group from P. punctatus. All the evidence considered leads us to propose that Profundulidae do not show evidence of niche conservatism and that there are reasons to consider P. oaxacae as a valid species. Our study suggests that niche divergence is a driving evolutionary force that caused the diversification and speciation processes of the Profundulidae, along with the geological and climatic events that promoted the expansion or contraction of suitable environments.

A New Method for Integrating Ecological Niche Modeling with Phylogenetics to Estimate Ancestral Distributions

Ancestral range estimation and projection of niche models into the past have both become common in evolutionary studies where the ancient distributions of organisms are in question. However, these methods are hampered by complementary hurdles: discrete characterization of areas in ancestral range estimation can be overly coarse, especially at shallow timescales, and niche model projection neglects evolution. Phylogenetic niche modeling accounts for both of these issues by incorporating knowledge of evolutionary relationships into a characterization of environmental tolerances. We present a new method for phylogenetic niche modeling, implemented in R. Given past and present climate data, taxon occurrence data, and a time-calibrated phylogeny, our method constructs niche models for each extant taxon, uses ancestral character estimation to reconstruct ancestral niche models, and projects these models into paleoclimate data to provide a historical estimate of the geographic range of a lineage. Models either at nodes or along branches of the phylogeny can be estimated. We demonstrate our method on a small group of dendrobatid frogs and show that it can make inferences given species with restricted ranges and little occurrence data. We also use simulations to show that our method can reliably reconstruct the niche of a known ancestor in both geographic and environmental space. Our method brings together fields as disparate as ecological niche modeling, phylogenetics, and ancestral range estimation in a user-friendly package.

Evaluation metrics and validation of presence-only species distribution models based on distributional maps with varying coverage

We examine how different datasets, including georeferenced hardcopy maps of different extents and georeferenced herbarium specimens (spanning the range from 100 to 85,000 km²) influence ecological niche modeling. We check 13 of the available environmental niche modeling algorithms, using 30 metrics to score their validity and evaluate which are useful for the selection of the best model. The validation is made using an independent dataset comprised of presences and absences collected in a range-wide field survey of Carpathian endemic plant Leucanthemum rotundifolium (Compositae). Our analysis of models' predictive performances indicates that almost all datasets may be used for the construction of a species distributional range. Both very local and very general datasets can produce useful predictions, which may be more detailed than the original ranges. Results also highlight the possibility of using the data from manually georeferenced archival sources in reconstructions aimed at establishing species' ecological niches. We discuss possible applications of those data and associated problems. For the evaluation of models, we suggest employing AUC, MAE, and Bias. We show an example of how AUC and MAE may be combined to select the model with the best performance.

Niche conservatism and phylogenetic clustering in a tribe of arid-adapted marsupial mice, the Sminthopsini

The progressive expansion of the Australian arid zone during the last 20 Ma appears to have spurred the diversification of several families of plants, vertebrates and invertebrates, yet such taxonomic groups appear to show limited niche radiation. Here, we test whether speciation is associated with niche conservatism (constraints on ecological divergence) or niche divergence in a tribe of marsupial mice (Sminthopsini; 23 taxa) that includes the most speciose genus of living dasyurids, the sminthopsins. To that end, we integrated phylogenetic data with ecological niche modelling, to enable us to reconstruct the evolution of climatic suitability within Sminthopsini. Niche overlap among species was low-moderate (but generally higher than expected given environmental background similarity), and the degree of phylogenetic clustering increased with aridity. Climatic niche reconstruction illustrates that there has been little apparent evolution of climatic tolerance within clades. Accordingly, climatic disparity tends to be accumulated among clades, suggesting considerable niche conservatism. Our results also indicate that evolution of climatic tolerances has been heterogeneous across different dimensions of climate (temperature vs. precipitation) and across phylogenetic clusters (Sminthopsis murina group vs. other groups). Although some results point to the existence of shifts in climatic niches during the speciation of sminthopsins, our study provides evidence for substantial phylogenetic niche conservatism in the group. We conclude that niche diversification had a low impact on the speciation of this tribe of small, but highly mobile marsupials.

Ecological differentiation, speciation, and rarity: How do they match in Tephroseris longifolia agg. (Asteraceae)?

Tephroseris longifolia agg. is a complex group of outcrossing perennials distributed throughout Central Europe. Recent morphological study revealed six morphotypes corresponding to five previously distinguished subspecies, together with Alpine and Pannonian morphotypes of T. longifolia subsp. longifolia. The delimited morphotypes differ in relative DNA content, geographical range, and rarity. We compared ecological niches of the six morphotypes in order to assess the impact of ecological differentiation on the speciation processes within the T. longifolia agg. Further, we examined whether morphotypes with small range are more ecologically specialized than their widespread relatives. The distribution area of the aggregate includes the Alps, Apennines, Carpathians, and the Pannonian Basin. Ecological variables linked to climate, topography, soil, and vegetation were gathered from 135 circular plots recorded in 35 localities. Related variables were grouped to describe the partial ecological niches: climatic, topographic, pedological, biotic, and coenotic (based either on vascular plants or on bryophytes), each of them visualized as an envelope in the two-dimensional nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordination space. Each partial ecological niche for a given morphotype was characterized by its position (location of the envelope centroid), breadth (surface of the envelope), and overlaps with envelopes of the other morphotypes. Mantel statistics based on Spearman correlation coefficients were used to quantify differentiation of morphotypes in ecological parameters represented by the partial ecological niches. The significant niche differentiation was confirmed for climatic, topographic, pedological, and vascular plant-based coenotic niches. Ecological niche differentiation corresponded well to morphological and partially also to karyological differentiation. Narrowly distributed morphotypes occupied more specific habitats and had narrower ecological niches than their widespread relatives. Ecological differentiation could be considered an important driver in allopatric speciation within the T. longifolia agg. Our results demonstrate that quantification of ecological divergence is helpful in assessing evolutionary history of closely related taxa.