Focus expansion and stability of the spread parameter estimate of the power law model for dispersal gradients

Delays in Epidemic Outbreak Control Cost Disproportionately Large Treatment Footprints to Offset

Epidemic outbreak control often involves a spatially explicit treatment area (quarantine, inoculation, ring cull) that covers the outbreak area and adjacent regions where hosts are thought to be latently infected. Emphasis on space however neglects the influence of treatment timing on outbreak control. We conducted field and in silico experiments with wheat stripe rust (WSR), a long-distance dispersed plant disease, to understand interactions between treatment timing and area interact to suppress an outbreak. Full-factorial field experiments with three different ring culls (outbreak area only to a 25-fold increase in treatment area) at three different disease control timings (1.125, 1.25, and 1.5 latent periods after initial disease expression) indicated that earlier treatment timing had a conspicuously greater suppressive effect than the area treated. Disease spread computer simulations over a broad range of influential epidemic parameter values (R0, outbreak disease prevalence, epidemic duration) suggested that potentially unrealistically large increases in treatment area would be required to compensate for even small delays in treatment timing. Although disease surveillance programs are costly, our results suggest that treatments early in an epidemic disease outbreak require smaller areas to be effective, which may ultimately compensate for the upfront costs of proactive disease surveillance programs.

Temporal Dynamics and Severity of Cucurbit Downy Mildew Epidemics as Affected by Chemical Control and Cucurbit Host Type

Cucurbit downy mildew caused by the oomycete Pseudoperonospora cubensis is an important disease that affects members of Cucurbitaceae family globally. However, temporal dynamics of the disease have not been characterized at the field scale to understand how control strategies influence disease epidemics. Disease severity was assessed visually on cucumber and summer squash treated with weekly alternation of chlorothalonil with cymoxanil, fluopicolide, or propamocarb during the 2018 spring season and 2019 and 2020 fall seasons in North Carolina and the 2018 and 2020 fall seasons in South Carolina. Disease onset was observed around mid-June during the spring season and early September during the fall season, followed by a rapid increase in severity until mid-July in the spring season and late September or mid-October in the fall season, typical of polycyclic epidemics. The Gompertz, logistic, and monomolecular growth models were fitted to disease severity using linear regression and parameter estimates to compare the effects of fungicide treatment and cucurbit host type on disease progress. The Gompertz and logistic models were more appropriate than the monomolecular model in describing temporal dynamics of cucurbit downy mildew, with the Gompertz model providing the best description for 34 of the 44 epidemics examined. Fungicide treatment and host type significantly (P < 0.0001) affected the standardized area under disease progress curve (sAUDPC), final disease severity (Final DS), and weighted mean absolute rates of disease progress (ρ), with these variables, in most cases, being significantly (P < 0.05) lower in fungicide-treated plots than in untreated control plots. Except in a few cases, sAUDPC, Final DS, and ρ were lower in cases where chlorothalonil was alternated with fluopicolide or propamocarb than in cases where chlorothalonil was alternated with cymoxanil or when chlorothalonil was applied alone. These results characterized the temporal progress of cucurbit downy mildew and provided an improved understanding of the dynamics of the disease at the field level. Parameters of disease progress obtained from this study could serve as inputs in simulation studies to assess the efficacy of fungicide alternation in managing fungicide resistance in this pathosystem.

Global Cropland Connectivity: A Risk Factor for Invasion and Saturation by Emerging Pathogens and Pests

The geographic pattern of cropland is an important risk factor for invasion and saturation by crop-specific pathogens and arthropods. Understanding cropland networks supports smart pest sampling and mitigation strategies. We evaluate global networks of cropland connectivity for key vegetatively propagated crops (banana and plantain, cassava, potato, sweet potato, and yam) important for food security in the tropics. For each crop, potential movement between geographic location pairs was evaluated using a gravity model, with associated uncertainty quantification. The highly linked hub and bridge locations in cropland connectivity risk maps are likely priorities for surveillance and management, and for tracing intraregion movement of pathogens and pests. Important locations are identified beyond those locations that simply have high crop density. Cropland connectivity risk maps provide a new risk component for integration with other factors-such as climatic suitability, genetic resistance, and global trade routes-to inform pest risk assessment and mitigation.

Genotyping-by-Sequencing Reveals Fine-Scale Differentiation in Populations of Pseudoperonospora humuli

Pseudoperonospora humuli is the causal agent of downy mildew of hop, one of the most important diseases of this plant and a limiting factor for production of susceptible cultivars in certain environments. The degree of genetic diversity and population differentiation within and among P. humuli populations at multiple spatial scales was quantified using genotyping-by-sequencing to test the hypothesis that populations of P. humuli have limited genetic diversity but are differentiated at the scale of individual hop yards. Hierarchical sampling was conducted to collect isolates from three hop yards in Oregon, plants within these yards, and infected shoots within heavily diseased plants. Additional isolates also were collected broadly from other geographic regions and from the two previously described clades of the sister species, P. cubensis. Genotyping of these 240 isolates produced a final quality-filtered data set of 216 isolates possessing 25,227 variants. Plots of G'_ST values indicated that the majority of variants had G'_ST values near 0 and were scattered randomly across contig positions. However, there was a subset of variants that were highly differentiated (G'_ST > 0.3) and reproducible when genotyped independently. Within P. humuli, there was evidence of genetic differentiation at the level of hop yards and plants within yards; 19.8% of the genetic variance was associated with differences among yards and 20.3% of the variance was associated with plants within the yard. Isolates of P. humuli were well differentiated from two isolates of P. cubensis representative of the two clades of this organism. There was strong evidence of linkage disequilibrium in variant loci, consistent with nonrandom assortment of alleles expected from inbreeding and/or asexual recombination. Mantel tests found evidence that the genetic distance between isolates collected from heavily diseased plants within a hop yard was associated with the physical distance of the plants from which the isolates were collected. The sum of the data presented here indicates that populations of P. humuli are consistent with a clonal or highly inbred genetic structure with a small, yet significant differentiation of populations among yards and plants within yards. Fine-scale genetic differentiation at the yard and plant scales may point to persistence of founder genotypes associated with planting material, and chronic, systemic infection of hop plants by P. humuli. More broadly, genotyping-by-sequencing appears to have sufficient resolution to identify rare variants that differentiate subpopulations within organisms with limited genetic variability.

Prediction of Spread and Regional Development of Hop Powdery Mildew: A Network Analysis

Dispersal is a fundamental aspect of epidemic development at multiple spatial scales, including those that extend beyond the borders of individual fields and to the landscape level. In this research, we used the powdery mildew of the hop pathosystem (caused by Podosphaera macularis) to formulate a model of pathogen dispersal during spring (May to June) and early summer (June to July) at the intermediate scale between synoptic weather systems and microclimate (mesoscale) based on a census of commercial hop yards during 2014 to 2017 in a production region in western Oregon. This pathosystem is characterized by a low level of overwintering of the pathogen as a result of absence of the ascigerious stage of the fungus and consequent annual cycles of localized survival via bud perennation and pathogen spread by windborne dispersal. An individual hop yard was considered a node in the model, whose disease status in a given month was expressed as a nonlinear function of disease incidence in the preceding month, susceptibility to two races of the fungus, and disease spread from other nodes as influenced by their disease incidence, area, distance away, and wind run and direction in the preceding month. Parameters were estimated by maximum likelihood over all 4 years but were allowed to vary for time transition periods from May to June and from June to July. The model accounted for 34 to 90% of the observed variation in disease incidence at the field level, depending on the year and season. Network graphs and analyses suggest that dispersal was dominated by relatively localized dispersal events (<2 km) among the network of fields, being mostly restricted to the same or adjacent farms. When formed, predicted disease attributable to dispersal from other hop yards (edges) associated with longer distance dispersal was more frequent in the June to July time transition. Edges with a high probability of disease transmission were formed in instances where yards were in close proximity or where disease incidence was relatively high in large hop yards, as moderated by wind run. The modeling approach provides a flexible and generalizable framework for understanding and predicting pathogen dispersal at the regional level as well as the implications of network connectivity on epidemic development.

Consequences of Long-Distance Dispersal for Epidemic Spread: Patterns, Scaling, and Mitigation

Epidemics caused by long-distance dispersed pathogens result in some of the most explosive and difficult to control diseases of both plants and animals (including humans). Yet the factors influencing disease spread, especially in the early stages of the outbreak, are not well-understood. We present scaling relationships, of potentially widespread relevance, that were developed from more than 15 years of field and in silico single focus studies of wheat stripe rust spread. These relationships emerged as a consequence of accounting for a greater proportion of the fat-tailed disease gradient that may be frequently underestimated in disease spread studies. Leptokurtic dispersal gradients (highly peaked and fat-tailed) are relatively common in nature and they can be represented by power law functions. Power law scale invariance properties generate patterns that repeat over multiple spatial scales, suggesting important and predictable scaling relationships between disease levels during the first generation of disease outbreaks and subsequent epidemic spread. Experimental wheat stripe rust outbreaks and disease spread simulations support theoretical scaling relationships from power law properties and suggest that relatively straightforward scaling approximations may be useful for projecting the spread of disease caused by long-distance dispersed pathogens. Our results suggest that, when actual dispersal/disease data are lacking, an inverse power law with exponent = 2 may provide a reasonable approximation for modeling disease spread. Furthermore, our experiments and simulations strongly suggest that early control treatments with small spatial extent are likely to be more effective at suppressing an outbreak caused by a long-distance dispersed pathogen than would delayed treatment of a larger area. The scaling relationships we detail and the associated consequences for disease control may be broadly applicable to plant and animal pathogens characterized by non-exponentially bound, fat-tailed dispersal gradients.

Risk Factors for Bud Perennation of Podosphaera macularis on Hop

The hop powdery mildew fungus Podosphaera macularis persists from season to season in the Pacific Northwestern United States through infection of crown buds because only one of the mating types needed to produce the ascigerous stage is presently found in this region. Bud infection and successful overwintering of the fungus leads to the emergence of heavily infected shoots in early spring (termed flag shoots). Historical data of flag shoot occurrence and incidence in Oregon and Washington State during 2000 to 2017 were analyzed to identify their association with the incidence of powdery mildew, growers' use of fungicides, autumn and winter temperature, and other production factors. During this period, flag shoots were found on 0.05% of plants evaluated in Oregon and 0.57% in Washington. In Oregon, the incidence of powdery mildew on leaves was most severe and the number of fungicide applications made by growers greatest in yards where flag shoots were found in spring. Similarly, the incidence of plants with powdery mildew in Washington was significantly associated with the number of flag shoots present in early spring, although the number of fungicide applications made was independent of flag shoot occurrence. The occurrence of flag shoots was associated with prior occurrence of flag shoots in a yard, the incidence of foliar powdery mildew in the previous year, grower pruning method, and, in Washington, winter temperature. A census of hop yards in the eastern extent of the Oregon production region during 2014 to 2017 found flag shoots in 27 of 489 yards evaluated. In yards without flag shoots, 338 yards (73.2%) were chemically pruning or not pruned, whereas the remaining 124 (26.8%) were mechanically pruned. Of the 27 yards with flag shoots, 22 were either chemically pruned or not pruned and 4 were mechanically pruned in mid-April, well after the initial emergence of flag shoots. The prevalence of yards with flag shoots also was related to thoroughness of pruning in spring (8.1% of yards with incomplete pruning versus 1.9% of yards with thorough pruning). A Bayesian logistic regression model was fit to the data from the intensively assessed yards in Oregon, with binary risk factors for occurrence of a flag shoot in the previous year, occurrence of foliar mildew in the previous year, and thoroughness of pruning in spring. The model indicated that the median and 95% highest posterior density interval of the probability of flag shoot occurrence was 0.0008 (0.0000 to 0.0053) when a yard had no risk factors but risk increased to 0.0065 (0.0000 to 0.0283) to 0.43 (0.175 to 0.709) when one to all three of the risk factors were present. The entirety of this research indicates that P. macularis appears to persist in a subset of chronically affected hop yards, particularly yards where spring pruning is conducted poorly. Targeted management of the disease in a subset of fields most at risk for producing flag shoots could potentially influence powdery mildew development regionwide.

Susceptibility of Hop Crown Buds to Powdery Mildew and its Relation to Perennation of Podosphaera macularis

In the Pacific Northwestern United States, the hop powdery mildew fungus, Podosphaera macularis, survives overwintering periods in association with living host tissue because the ascigerious stage of the pathogen is not known to occur in this region. Field experiments were conducted over a 5-year period to describe the overwintering process associated with crown bud infection and persistence of P. macularis. Surface crown buds increased in abundance and size beginning in early July and continuing until mid-September. Buds of varying sizes remained susceptible to powdery mildew until late September to early October in each of 3 years of experiments, with susceptibility decreasing substantially thereafter. Potted plants were inoculated sequentially during early summer to autumn, then evaluated in the following year for development of shoots colonized by the powdery mildew fungus (termed flag shoots) due to bud perennation. Emergence of flag shoots was asynchronous and associated with shoot emergence and elongation. Flag shoots emerged over a protracted period from late February to early June, year dependent. In all 4 years of experiments, some infected buds broke and produced flag shoots after chemical desiccation of shoots in spring, a common horticultural practice in hop production conducted to set training timing and eliminate initial inoculum. Flag shoots were most numerous when plants were inoculated with P. macularis in early summer and, consequently, when powdery mildew was present throughout the entire period of crown bud development. The number of flag shoots produced was reduced from 6.8- to 46.6-fold when comparing the latest versus earliest inoculation dates. However, all inoculation timings yielded flag shoots at some level, suggesting that bud infection that occurs over an extended period of time in the previous season may allow the fungus to perennate. In studies in two commercial hop yards in Washington State, fungicide applications made after harvest reduced the level of powdery mildew on leaves in the current year but did not significantly reduce flag shoots in the following year. Given that bud infection occurred over a 10-week period, flag shoots developed even when plants were exposed to inoculum in October and some flag shoots survived chemical pruning practices, management efforts seem best directed to both preventative measures to reduce the likelihood of bud infection and remedial practices to physically eliminate infected crown buds in the ensuing year.