Extinction risk of narrowly distributed species of seed plants in Brazil due to habitat loss and climate change

The distribution and conservation of areas with microendemic species in a biodiversity hotspot: a multi-taxa approach

Background

Microendemic species are species with very small geographic distributions (ranges). Their presence delimitates areas with microendemic species (AMs), denoting a spatial unit comprising at least one population of at least one microendemic species. AMs are assumed to be distributed distinctively and associated with specific ecological, historical, and anthropogenic attributes. However, the level of influence of these factors remains unclear. Thus, we studied the distribution patterns of microendemic species within the Brazilian Atlantic Forest to (a) identify the region's AMs; (b) evaluate whether ecological (latitude, altitude, distance from the coastline), historical (climate stability), and anthropogenic (ecological integrity) attributes distinguish AMs from non-AMs; and (c) assess the conservation status of the Atlantic Forest's AMs.

Methods

We mapped the ranges of 1,362 microendemic species of angiosperms, freshwater fishes, and terrestrial vertebrates (snakes, passerine birds, and small mammals) to identify the region's AMs. Further, spatial autoregressive logit regression models were used to evaluate whether latitude, altitude, distance from the coastline, Climate Stability Index, and ecological integrity can be used to discern AMs from non-AMs. Moreover, the AMs' conservation status was assessed by evaluating the region's ecological integrity and conservation efforts (measured as the proportion of AMs in protected areas).

Results

We identified 261 AMs for angiosperm, 205 AMs for freshwater fishes, and 102 AMs for terrestrial vertebrates in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, totaling 474 AMs covering 23.8% of the region. The Brazilian Atlantic Forest is a large and complex biogeographic mosaic where AMs represent islands or archipelagoes surrounded by transition areas with no microendemic species. All local attributes help to distinguish AMs from non-AMs, but their impacts vary across taxonomic groups. Around 69% of AMs have low ecological integrity and poor conservation efforts, indicating that most microendemic species are under threat. This study provides insights into the biogeography of one of the most important global biodiversity hotspots, creating a foundation for comparative studies using other tropical forest regions.

How do intrinsic and extrinsic causes interact in the extinction vulnerability of South American savanna shrub and tree species?

Although a growing body of literature recognises the importance of rarity for biodiversity conservation, it is unclear how the interaction of different forms of rarity, extrinsic causes of extinction, and protection affect species' vulnerability. Here we addressed the extinction vulnerability of 2203 shrub and tree species of the South American savanna (SAS). For this, species were attributed a form of rarity, a synergistic risk index (SRI), and a protection index (PI). The SRI combines three extrinsic causes of extinction (climate hazard, fire frequency, and human footprint). The PI is the ratio between the number of a species occurrences within protected areas and the total number of occurrences in the SAS. By combining the SRI and PI, we classified common and rare species into five vulnerability classes. Some regions of the SAS show high values of climate hazard, fire frequency, human footprint, and SRI. Each extrinsic cause of extinction is differently distributed across the SAS and shows no or low spatial congruence with the SRI. Many species show a low ratio of occurrences within PAs, which in combination with high SRI results in high vulnerability to extinction. Surprisingly, the number of common species in the higher vulnerability classes is higher than of rare species. Common and rare species in different vulnerability classes occur in somewhat different locations across the SAS and mainly constitute spatially incongruent centres with high species richness. Given our results, we propose that strategies for the effective conservation of SAS species are challenging and must be carefully designed.

Impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on Eucalyptus plantations in South America

Even if the maximum global warming thresholds established by the Paris Agreement (1.5 and 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels) are not exceeded, part of the climate system impacts resulting from this warming will be unavoidable. Forestry industries may be especially vulnerable, due to water shortages and the inability of growing certain forest species. An important part of the South American economy depends on the forestry sector (between 2 to ~7% of the Gross Domestic Product), mainly products derived from Eucalyptus, and so evaluating water availability considering the temperature thresholds established by the Paris Agreement will be fundamental. This study analyzed increased global average temperatures at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and the impacts on water availability, using the Climatic Water Balance (CWB), and also studied possible impacts on Eucalyptus plantations in South America. Monthly temperature and precipitation data obtained from a set of simulations and projections of 26 General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used, in four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The CWB was calculated for three periods: i) the pre-industrial period (1861-1890), ii) the present period (1975-2005), and iii) the period when temperature projections are expected to reach global average increases of 1.5 °C and 2 °C. Due to changes in the CWB, with increases in actual evapotranspiration, water deficits, and a reduced water surplus, Eucalyptus plantations will be negatively affected and economically unfeasible for about 49.2% to 56.7% of all of South America, including a large part of the Amazon region, northern South America, midwestern and northeastern Brazil, western portions of Bolivia, Paraguay, central/northern Argentina, and northern Chile. Only some parts of South America, like the southern and southeastern regions of Brazil, Uruguay, southern Argentina and Chile, Andes Mountain Range, and northwestern South America, will not suffer water deficits, and Eucalyptus plantations will be less impacted in these regions. Large parts of South America will suffer from changes in water availability. The future of the forestry industry, and especially Eucalyptus plantations in these regions, will depend on urgent and effective adaptation measures.

Identifying and prioritising climate change adaptation actions for greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) conservation in Nepal

Climate change has started impacting species, ecosystems, genetic diversity within species, and ecological interactions and is thus a serious threat to conserving biodiversity globally. In the absence of adequate adaptation measures, biodiversity may continue to decline, and many species will possibly become extinct. Given that global temperature continues to increase, climate change adaptation has emerged as an overarching framework for conservation planning. We identified both ongoing and probable climate change adaptation actions for greater one-horned rhinoceros conservation in Nepal through a combination of literature review, key informant surveys (n = 53), focus group discussions (n = 37) and expert consultation (n = 9), and prioritised the identified adaptation actions through stakeholder consultation (n = 17). The majority of key informants (>80%) reported that climate change has been impacting rhinoceros, and more than 65% of them believe that rhinoceros habitat suitability in Nepal has been shifting westwards. Despite these perceived risks, climate change impacts have not been incorporated well into formal conservation planning for rhinoceros. Out of 20 identified adaptation actions under nine adaptation strategies, identifying and protecting climate refugia, restoring the existing habitats through wetland and grassland management, creating artificial highlands in floodplains to provide rhinoceros with refuge during severe floods, and translocating them to other suitable habitats received higher priority. These adaptation actions may contribute to reducing the vulnerability of rhinoceros to the likely impacts of climate change. This study is the first of its kind in Nepal and is expected to provide a guideline to align ongoing conservation measures into climate change adaptation planning for rhinoceros. Further, we emphasise the need to integrating likely climate change impacts while planning for rhinoceros conservation and initiating experimental research and monitoring programs to better inform adaptation planning in the future.

An escape-to-radiate model for explaining the high plant diversity and endemism in campos rupestres†

With extraordinary levels of plant diversity and endemism, the Brazilian campos rupestres across the Espinhaço Range have a species/area ratio 40 times higher than the lowland Amazon. Although diversification drivers in campos rupestres remain a matter of debate, the Pleistocene refugium hypothesis (PRH) is often adopted as the most plausible explanation for their high diversity. The PRH has two main postulates: highland interglacial refugia and a species pump mechanism catalysed by climatic changes. We critically assessed studies on campos rupestres diversification at different evolutionary levels and conclude that most of them are affected by sampling biases, unrealistic assumptions or inaccurate results that do not support the PRH. By modelling the palaeo-range of campos rupestres based on the distribution of 1123 species of vascular plants endemic to the Espinhaço Range and using climate and edaphic variables, we projected a virtually constant suitable area for campos rupestres across the last glacial cycle. We challenge the great importance placed on Pleistocene climatic oscillations in campos rupestres plant diversification and offer an alternative explanation named escape-to-radiate model, which emphasizes niche shifts. Under this biogeographic model of diversification, the long-term fragmentation of campos rupestres combined with recurrent extinctions after genetic drift and sporadic events of adaptive radiation may provide an explanation for the current diversity and endemism in the Espinhaço Range. We conclude that long-term diversification dynamics in campos rupestres are mainly driven by selection, while most endemic diversity is ephemeral, extremely fragile and mainly driven by drift.

Fast diversification through a mosaic of evolutionary histories characterizes the endemic flora of ancient Neotropical mountains

Mountains are among the most biodiverse areas on the globe. In young mountain ranges, exceptional plant species richness is often associated with recent and rapid radiations linked to the mountain uplift itself. In ancient mountains, however, orogeny vastly precedes the evolution of vascular plants, so species richness has been explained by species accumulation during long periods of low extinction rates. Here we evaluate these assumptions by analysing plant diversification dynamics in the campo rupestre, an ecosystem associated with pre-Cambrian mountaintops and highlands of eastern South America, areas where plant species richness and endemism are among the highest in the world. Analyses of 15 angiosperm clades show that radiations of endemics exhibit fastest rates of diversification during the last 5 Myr, a climatically unstable period. However, results from ancestral range estimations using different models disagree on the age of the earliest in situ speciation events and point to a complex floristic assembly. There is a general trend for higher diversification rates associated with these areas, but endemism may also increase or reduce extinction rates, depending on the group. Montane habitats, regardless of their geological age, may lead to boosts in speciation rates by accelerating population isolation in archipelago-like systems, circumstances that can also result in higher extinction rates and fast species turnover, misleading the age estimates of endemic lineages.