A novel nomogram with preferable capability in predicting the overall survival of patients after radical esophageal cancer resection based on accessible clinical indicators: A comparison with AJCC staging

A prognostic nomogram that includes MPV in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Mean platelet volume (MPV), as a marker of platelet activity, has been shown to be an efficient prognostic biomarker in several types of cancer. Using MPV, this study aimed to create and validate a prognostic nomogram to the overall survival in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients.

METHODS

The nomogram was constructed and tested using data from a retrospective study of 1893 patients who were randomly assigned to the training and testing cohorts with a 7:3 randomization. In order to screen out the optimal predictors for overall survival (OS), we conducted the LASSO-cox regression, univariate, and multivariate cox regression analyses. Subsequently, the predictive accuracy of the nomogram was validated in both the training and the testing cohorts. Finally, decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to confirm clinical validity.

RESULTS

Age, MPV, nerve invasion, T stage, and N stage were found as independent prognostic variables for OS and were further developed into a nomogram. The nomogram's prediction accuracy for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS was 0.736, 0.749, 0.774, and 0.724, 0.719, 0.704 in the training and testing cohorts, respectively. Furthermore, DCA results indicated that nomograms outperformed the AJCC 8th and conventional T, N staging systems in both the training and testing cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram, in conjunction with MPV and standard clinicopathological markers, could improve the accuracy of prediction of OS in ESCC patients.

Prognostic impact of examined lymph-node count for patients with esophageal cancer: development and validation prediction model

Esophageal cancer (EC) is a malignant tumor with high mortality. We aimed to find the optimal examined lymph node (ELN) count threshold and develop a model to predict survival of patients after radical esophagectomy. Two cohorts were analyzed: the training cohort which included 734 EC patients from the Chinese registry and the external testing cohort which included 3208 EC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to determine the prognostic value of ELNs. The cut-off point of the ELNs count was determined using R-statistical software. The prediction model was developed using random survival forest (RSF) algorithm. Higher ELNs count was significantly associated with better survival in both cohorts (training cohort: HR = 0.98, CI = 0.97-0.99, P < 0.01; testing cohort: HR = 0.98, CI = 0.98-0.99, P < 0.01) and the cut-off point was 18 (training cohort: P < 0.01; testing cohort: P < 0.01). We developed the RSF model with high prediction accuracy (AUC: training cohort: 87.5; testing cohort: 79.3) and low Brier Score (training cohort: 0.122; testing cohort: 0.152). The ELNs count beyond 18 is associated with better overall survival. The RSF model has preferable clinical capability in terms of individual prognosis assessment in patients after radical esophagectomy.

A novel nomogram for adult primary perihilar cholangiocarcinoma and considerations concerning lymph node dissection

Objective

To construct a reliable nomogram available online to predict the postoperative survival of patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma.

Methods

Data from 1808 patients diagnosed with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma between 2004 and 2015 were extracted from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. They were randomly divided into training and validation sets. The nomogram was established by machine learning and Cox model. The discriminant ability and prediction accuracy of the nomogram were evaluated by concordance index (C-index), receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve. Kaplan-Meier curves show the prognostic value of the associated risk factors and classification system.

Results

Machine learning and multivariate Cox risk regression model showed that sex, age, tumor differentiation, primary tumor stage(T), lymph node metastasis(N), TNM stage, surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, lymph node dissection were associated with the prognosis of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma patients relevant factors (P < 0.05). A novel nomogram was established. The calibration plots, C-index and ROC curve for predictions of the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS were in excellent agreement. In patients with stage T1 and N0 perihilar cholangiocarcinoma, the prognosis of ≥4 lymph nodes dissected was better than that of 1- 3 lymph nodes dissected (P < 0.01).

Conclusion

The nomogram prognostic prediction model can provide a reference for evaluating the prognosis and survival rate of patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma. Patients with stage T1 and N0 perihilar cholangiocarcinoma have more benefits by increasing the number of lymph node dissection.

A clinical prognostic model for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma based on circulating tumor DNA mutation features

Background

Few predictive models have included circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) indicators to predict prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients. Here, we aimed to explore whether ctDNA can be used as a predictive biomarker in nomogram models to predict the prognosis of patients with ESCC.

Methods

We included 57 patients who underwent surgery and completed a 5-year follow-up. With next-generation sequencing, a 61-gene panel was used to evaluate plasma cell-free DNA and white blood cell genomic DNA from patients with ESCC. We analyzed the relationship between the mutation features of ctDNA and the prognosis of patients with ESCC, identified candidate risk predictors by Cox analysis, and developed nomogram models to predict the 2- and 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). The area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to evaluate the performance of the nomogram model. The model was compared with the traditional tumor-nodes-metastasis (TNM) staging system.

Results

The ROC curve showed that the average mutant allele frequency (MAF) of ctDNA variants and the number of ctDNA variants were potential biomarkers for predicting the prognosis of patients with ESCC. The predictors included in the models were common candidate predictors of ESCC, such as lymph node stage, angiolymphatic invasion, drinking history, and ctDNA characteristics. The calibration curve demonstrated consistency between the observed and predicted results. Moreover, our nomogram models showed clear prognostic superiority over the traditional TNM staging system (based on C-index, 2-year DFS: 0.82 vs. 0.64; 5-year DFS: 0.78 vs. 0.65; 2-year OS: 0.80 vs. 0.66; 5-year OS: 0.77 vs. 0.66; based on IDI, 2-year DFS: 0.33, p <0.001; 5-year DFS: 0.18, p = 0.04; 2-year OS: 0.28, p <0.001; 5-year OS: 0.15, p = 0.04). The comprehensive scores of the nomogram models could be used to stratify patients with ESCC.

Conclusions

The novel nomogram incorporating ctDNA features may help predict the prognosis of patients with resectable ESCC. This model can potentially be used to guide the postoperative management of ESCC patients in the future, such as adjuvant therapy and follow-up.

Hematological Prognostic Scoring System Can Predict Overall Survival and Can Indicate Response to Immunotherapy in Patients With Osteosarcoma

Osteosarcoma is the most common primary malignant bone tumor with a high metastatic potential. Nowadays, there is a lack of new markers to identify prognosis of osteosarcoma patients with response to medical treatment. Recent studies have shown that hematological markers can reflect to some extent the microenvironment of an individual with the potential to predict patient prognosis. However, most of the previous studies have studied the prognostic value of a single hematological index, and it is difficult to comprehensively reflect the tumor microenvironment of patients. Here, we comprehensively collected 16 hematological markers and constructed a hematological prognostic scoring system (HPSS) using LASSO cox regression analysis. HPSS contains many indicators such as immunity, inflammation, coagulation and nutrition. Our results suggest that HPSS is an independent prognostic factor for overall survival in osteosarcoma patients and is an optimal addition to clinical characteristics and well suited to further identify high-risk patients from clinically low-risk patients. HPSS-based nomograms have good predictive ability. Finally, HPSS also has some hints for immunotherapy response in osteosarcoma patients.

A Clinical Prognostic Model Based on Preoperative Hematological and Clinical Parameters Predicts the Progression of Primary WHO Grade II Meningioma

Purpose

The purpose was to explore the correlation between hematological parameters and the progression of WHO grade II meningioma, and establish a clinical prognostic model based on hematological parameters and clinical prognostic factors to predict the progression-free survival (PFS) of patients.

Methods

A total of 274 patients with WHO grade II meningiomas were included. Patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (192, 70%) and a test cohort (82, 30%). In the training cohort, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression analysis were used to screen for hematological parameters with prognostic value, and the hematological risk model (HRM) was constructed based on these parameters; univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were utilized to screen for clinical prognostic factors, and a clinical prognostic model was constructed based on clinical prognostic factors and HRM. The prognostic stability and accuracy of the HRM and clinical prognostic model were verified in the test cohort. Subgroup analysis was performed according to the patients' different clinical characteristics.

Results

Preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, albumin-to-globulin ratio, D-dimer, fibrinogen, and lactate dehydrogenase were associated with the PFS of patients. The areas under curve of the HRM were 0.773 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.707-0.839) and 0.745 (95% CI 0.637-0.852) in the training cohort and test cohort, respectively. The progression risk was higher in the high-risk group than that in the low-risk group categorized by the optimal cutoff value (2.05) of hematological risk scores. The HRM, age, tumor location, tumor size, peritumoral edema, extent of resection, Ki-67 index, and postoperative radiotherapy were the prognostic factors for the progression of meningiomas. The corrected C-index of the clinical prognosis model was 0.79 in the training cohort. Clinical decision analysis showed that the clinical prognostic model could be used to obtain favorable clinical benefits. In the subgroup analysis, the HRM displayed excellent prognostic stability and general applicability in different subgroups.

Conclusions

Preoperative hematological parameters are associated with the postoperative progression of WHO grade II meningiomas. The clinical prognosis model constructed based on hematological parameters and clinical prognostic factors has favorable predictive accuracy and clinical benefits.