Evaluation of the Framingham Heart Study risk factors and risk score for incident chronic kidney disease at 10 years in a Thai general population

Systematic review of diagnostic and prognostic models of chronic kidney disease in low-income and middle-income countries

OBJECTIVE

To summarise available chronic kidney disease (CKD) diagnostic and prognostic models in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHOD

Systematic review (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines). We searched Medline, EMBASE, Global Health (these three through OVID), Scopus and Web of Science from inception to 9 April 2021, 17 April 2021 and 18 April 2021, respectively. We first screened titles and abstracts, and then studied in detail the selected reports; both phases were conducted by two reviewers independently. We followed the CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies recommendations and used the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool for risk of bias assessment.

RESULTS

The search retrieved 14 845 results, 11 reports were studied in detail and 9 (n=61 134) were included in the qualitative analysis. The proportion of women in the study population varied between 24.5% and 76.6%, and the mean age ranged between 41.8 and 57.7 years. Prevalence of undiagnosed CKD ranged between 1.1% and 29.7%. Age, diabetes mellitus and sex were the most common predictors in the diagnostic and prognostic models. Outcome definition varied greatly, mostly consisting of urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio and estimated glomerular filtration rate. The highest performance metric was the negative predictive value. All studies exhibited high risk of bias, and some had methodological limitations.

CONCLUSION

There is no strong evidence to support the use of a CKD diagnostic or prognostic model throughout LMIC. The development, validation and implementation of risk scores must be a research and public health priority in LMIC to enhance CKD screening to improve timely diagnosis.

Long-term effects of socioeconomic status on the incidence of decreased glomerular filtration rate in a Southeast Asian cohort

BACKGROUND

There is limited information on the role of low socioeconomic status (SES) in the development of new chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the general population, especially from developing countries. This study will test the hypothesis that low SES increases the risk of incidence of decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR, used as an estimate for CKD) in a Thai worker cohort.

METHOD

In this prospective, longitudinal observational study, we evaluated the association of income and educational attainment on incident decreased GFR (iGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m²) over a 27-year period in employees of Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand. In 1985, subjects participated in a health survey and were re-examined in 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2012. Education was classified into three categories: low, 0-8th grade; medium, 9-12th grade; and high, >12th grade. Income was categorised as follows: low <10 000 Thai Baht (THB)/month; medium, 10 000-20 000 THB/month; and high, >20 000 THB/month. HRs of iGFR<60 mL/min/1.73 m² were estimated using Cox interval-censored models with high income or education as the reference groups after adjustments for clinical risk factors.

RESULTS

Participants (n=3334) were followed for 23 (15, 27) years. When evaluated separately, both education and income were risk factors for iGFR<60 mL/min/1.73 m² (adjusted HR education: medium-1.26 (95% CI 1.13 to1.42) and low-1.57 (95% CI 1.36 to 1.81) and adjusted HR income: medium-1.21 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.50) and low-1.47 (95% CI 1.18 to 1.82)). When both income and education were included together, low and medium education remained independently associated with iGFR<60 mL/min/1.73 m².

CONCLUSIONS

Low education was independently associated with increased risk of decreased GFR in a Thai worker population. Strategies to identify risk factors among low SES may be useful to prevent early CKD.